Last night I blogged about the downsides of the Euro electoral system and the tactical voting it encourages. I argued that there were two seats in contention, and they could be between any of the Tories, the Greens, the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems. Just after I posted it, though, YouGov’s final Scottish poll was published. It’s got a 533 sample size, so the margin of error is bigger than with a normal 1000 person poll (up to 4.2%, rather than around 3%), but even so..
LAB – 28%
SNP – 26%
CON – 15%
UKIP – 13%
GRN – 11%
LDEM – 6%
The way this would work under the Euro electoral system is as follows (it shows the SNP on double UKIP’s vote, let’s assume they’re a notch above that, which only affects the order in which the last two seats are won):
Parties | Votes 1 | Seat 1 | Votes 2 | Seat 2 | Votes 3 | Seat 3 | Vote 4 | Seat 4 | Vote 5 | Seat 5 | Vote 6 | Seat 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNP | 26% | 26% | SNP | 13% | 13% | 13% | SNP | 8.7% | ||||
Lab | 28% | Lab | 14% | 14% | 14% | Lab | 9.3% | 9.3% | ||||
Con | 15% | 15% | 15% | Con | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | |||||
Lib Dems | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | ||||||
Greens | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | ||||||
UKIP | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | UKIP |
The last two vote columns are key. If this were the result, the last two seats would go SNP/UKIP, with both parties’ votes at 13% at that stage (the SNP having been halved because they won the second seat). But look at the Votes 6 column. The Greens would, on this poll, fall just 2% short of claiming that last seat from UKIP. No-one else is even close at that stage – Labour would need 39% instead of 28% to take it, the SNP likewise, the Tories would need 26% instead of 15%, and the Lib Dems would need 13% instead of 6%. With a 4.2% margin of error, even assuming it all went in favour of Labour, or the SNP, or the Tories, or the Lib Dems, they couldn’t stop UKIP.
Only a boost to the Green vote, on this showing, could realistically stop Scotland electing a UKIP MEP.
If we took that two percent from the SNP, that’d leave the last two seats as Green/UKIP rather than SNP/UKIP, which cannot be the objective. So the tactical message to all non-SNP voters who don’t want to see UKIP in is lend the Greens your vote. This applies most of all to Lib Dem voters: your seat is lost, as all the polls agree. Your final message is about in or out of Europe – a Green MEP for Scotland rather than a UKIP MEP makes that case better than a wasted vote for the Lib Dems.