Archive for category Parties

The latest Holyrood poll from the Sunday Times

I missed yesterday’s Sunday Times, which is easy to do when it’s behind a paywall. Anyway, this afternoon (why not yesterday?) the SNP news released the following results from a poll the paper ran at the weekend with Real Radio, conducted by Panelbase. Incidentally, they’re new to me but look like they might understand the internet a little better than certain other pollsters.

First vote
SNP: 47% (+2%)
Labour: 32% (±0)
Conservative: 12% (-2%)
LibDem: 6% (-2%)

Second vote
SNP: 46% (+2%)
Labour: 28% (+2%)
Conservative: 11% (-1%)
Greens: 6% (+2%)
LibDem: 4% (-1%)

Here’s what the Scotland Votes site makes of that (click the wee image above for a graphic thereof):

MSPs
SNP: 68 (-1)
Labour: 41 (+4)
Conservative: 11 (-4)
Green: 5 (+3)
LibDem: 3 (-2)
Ind: 1 (1)

(Changes are from May 2011)

Leaving aside the big picture for a second, the SNP’s predictions in their news release were totally different. They awarded themselves four more seats than Scotland Votes did, took five off Labour, and gave the Tories two more than predicted. The Nats also kept the Lib Dems on five despite a continued decline in their ratings, two more than Scotland Votes had for them, and had the Greens unchanged on two, three fewer than predicted despite a wee Green bump.

That kind of statistical fiddling isn’t just odd, unless they’ve got a better predictor that they’ve declined to identify, it’s unnecessary. The poll shows the Nats 2% up from their 2011 triumph on both votes, despite the shambles over equal marriage and an independence campaign so watered down that it’d be hard to see the difference if they won it. Being up still further now is an excellent story to tell. The fact that Labour have had a mini bounce too and would be making small wins, including a net of just one at the SNP’s expense, is pretty minor, overall, but it looks like someone in the SNP press office got a bit over-excited about this one. Keep the head, chaps!

In praise (mostly) of the Scottish Socialist Party

It’s more than five years since Holyrood was last graced by any SSP MSPs, and Parliament is the worse for the absence of any representatives of the traditional left. A distinct if small section of the electorate isn’t represented nationally, and the terms of debate are narrower, despite the presence of other principled left voices: the Greens and a few others from the Labour and SNP benches.

The reasons for the SSP’s absence are well-understood, of course, with the saga of Tommy overwhelming all. Without wishing to rake over that in detail, the fact remains that one side of that dispute were broadly either perjurers or supporters of perjurers (trading as Solidarity) and the other side were essentially maligned and and innocent (the continuing SSP).

Of all the unfair things that happen in politics, being damned for your enemies’ shortcomings would have to rank pretty highly, despite the caveat that the party was forged in large part around Tommy’s ego, and many of those who did the right thing in the end did always know he was too flawed to be a stable foundation.

Before the split, they also did themselves no favours when the choice was between grandstanding or being parliamentarians. The Gleneagles farce and its consequences for Hep C campaigners is the most obvious example, where a photo op trumped both democracy and the needs of some very vulnerable people, and Rosie’s wee submarine did look a bit daft. And colleagues in Glasgow certainly found their campaigning style abrasive and beyond what parties should expect from each other.

But equally, Tommy’s achievement on warrants and poindings in the first session was a true left victory, and it would be hard to doubt their intention to speak up for Scotland’s working class. Even when they were wrong, it was sometimes useful. Their “free public transport for everyone” pledge was seductive, even though the reality would have been overburdened networks unable to expand without truly eyewatering additional expenditure from taxpayers. But extending free passes to the unemployed, to students and to those on low incomes: their campaign made that seem obvious even if you don’t see it as a step towards a truly free system.

And there were plenty of points of agreement with the Greens, over issues like bringing rail back into public ownership, opposition to vandalism like the M74 Northern Extension, protecting taxpayers’ interests by ending PFI and related schemes, and many more. Despite those points of overlap, the two parties brought largely different demographics to the ballot box, ensuring that the breadth of radical Scotland was properly represented at Holyrood, during the “rainbow Parliament” at least.

Good minds and good people were tied up in the disastrous split, too, people like Carolyn Leckie and Alan McCombes. Many more fiercely principled and intelligent campaigners were totally burnt out by that episode (or series of episodes), and have been lost to politics, some probably permanently. Whether or not you agree with them, that disengagement is surely to be regretted.

I don’t want to see an independent Scotland carrying on with business as usual, just a smaller nation still venerating egomaniac billionaires, cleaving to the House of Windsor, building endless uneconomic and unsustainable new motorways, or launching a damaging race to the bottom on corporation tax. To stop all that, radical Scotland will need all the strength it can muster, which probably includes the SSP getting its act back together and getting back into Parliament.

Reflection on defection

A polarising debate around independence, the SNP embracing Nato & the Queen, Labour flip-flopping on tuition fees while toughening its stance on immigration and the Lib Dems continuing to find difficulty in balancing its principles with the reality of coalition Government are all contributing to perhaps the most turbulent period the political grass roots switching party identity in recent memory.

Despite the strict (some would say slavish) obedience to party lines within both of the UK’s Parliaments, it would not be altogether surprising if an MSP or MP had a quiet conversation with her or his self over the next few years and decided to defect to another party. It may be a hypothetical question for an issue that may never arise, but, in such circumstances, should the politician in question resign and fight a by-election under their new party colours?

There is no legal requirement to do so of course, but as the Jimmy Carr debacle has shown, that doesn’t necessarily make the rights or wrongs of a decision quite so clear cut.

More than ever before, elections are decided by the leaders at the helm of each party. The consistent swing from one party to another across the majority of constituencies at both Holyrood and Westminster is evidence enough of this. The SNP didn’t hammer Labour in constituency after constituency because they picked a raft of dazzling political individuals to stand as candidates, though I’m sure there are several in their number; it was because they had better policies as a party and Salmond appeared to make for a better FM than Iain Gray would have. They also had a massive spending warchest, but we don’t need to pick that old wound again.

So, the old adage that you could put a monkey in a red rosette in parts of Scotland and still win the election was brought to a swift end over the past year. I’m not even necessarily referring to the landslide victory in May 2011 here. After all, isn’t there a new adage? You could put an (alleged) wife-beater in an SNP rosette and still get him elected. Yes, that’s right, I went there…

The case of Bill Walker going from the SNP to an Independent MSP may be as close as we get to a defection at this parliamentary sitting. Nevertheless, it would be beneficial to have even an unofficially understood code of conduct around how any defections going forwards could take place. My particular bone of contention around this would protrude quite glaringly if Labour or the SNP (or whoever) were to accept an MSP or MP from a party after they had crossed the floor. If, as seems to be very much the case, the electorate vote for parties rather than people at the ballot box, is there not a moral duty for politicians, fed up with the party that got them elected, to resign and fight a by-election, if they wish to switch party?

For me, there absolutely is.

Perhaps there’s a clue from the first person to ever cross the floor at Westminster. In 1698, John Grubham Howe moved from the Whigs to the Tories. His nickname, I like to think… Howe Grubby.

A liberal case for independence

A history graduate, advocate for LGBT equality, Albion Rovers supporter and Liberal Democrat, Andrew Page is accustomed to being identified with minority causes. He contested Renfrewshire North and West for the his party in 2011 and blogs at A Scottish Liberal.

I’m a rather late convert to the cause of Scottish independence – a conversion that owes more to pragmatism than it does to political ideology.

I’ve never been the kind of Liberal Democrat vociferously opposed to the notion of independence. In 2007 I believed that, while a prospective coalition was a non-starter due to simple arithmetic, the party was misguided to rule out co-operation with the SNP on the basis that a referendum represented a “fundamental barrier”. Neither have I ever accepted the flawed logic of previous Scottish Lib Dem leaders in consistently denying Scottish voters the referendum – an ultimately futile tactic that has made it easy for political opponents to portray us as small-minded arch-unionists and contributed in no small way to our alienating of many traditional supporters.

The leadership line for the previous few years has been more pro-unionist than the view of the party membership, and has been influenced more by antipathy towards the SNP than by either a coherent political strategy or a commitment to democratic principles. The referendum represents the fairest and most liberal option and is certainly preferable to elected politicians and Westminster policy makers deciding Scotland’s future on our behalf. I have struggled to reconcile our party’s democratic credentials with what I perceive as a poorly conceived and fundamentally illiberal approach in recent years and have become increasingly convinced that, far from being anathema to convinced liberals, independence offers significant opportunities.

Not being a nationalist, the question of Scotland’s constitutional future has always been of secondary interest to the creation of a liberal society and a fairer political system. Features of the liberal Scottish society Liberal Democrats aspire to achieve include tolerance, an embracing of pluralism, the guarantee of free expression, the fostering of autonomous choices and greater democratic freedoms. A liberal society is one in which its citizens are empowered to take greater control of their own destinies. Liberals in the UK have a history of campaigning for a fairer and more democratic voting system, a green economy, decentralisation and localism, an end to the privileges afforded to the unelected House of Lords, reducing the voting age to 16 and the fairness agenda (so beloved of Nick Clegg). For those of us living in Scotland, liberals are far more likely to achieve such objectives in an independent Scotland than within a dysfunctional Union. A British system of PR is unlikely to be achieved in my lifetime, but may well be a feature of an independent Scottish democratic system
in which concerns about the House of Lords would be both academic and redundant. Similarly, our objectives on fairness, the economy, green energy, lowering the voting age and empowering communities would have a greater chance of fulfilment after independence than they would have under the status quo, which has a proven track record of non-delivery.

The preamble to the Liberal Democrats’ constitution states that “the Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community”. The key question for Liberal Democrats therefore must be “which constitutional arrangement best allows for the creation of such a society?”

The preamble also makes the claim that “we believe that sovereignty rests with the people and that authority in a democracy derives from the people. We therefore acknowledge their right to determine the form of government best suited to their needs and commit ourselves to the promotion of a democratic federal framework within which as much power as feasible is exercised by the nations and regions of the United Kingdom.” This is clearly inconsistent with the leadership’s stance in recent years but also, in theory at least, simultaneously commits liberals to the right of self-determination and “democratic federalism”.

If I genuinely felt that the Liberal Democrats were capable of achieving this “democratic federalism” I would be supporting all attempts to make it a reality, as my inclinations are liberal, not nationalist. What we have learned is that, in eight years of coalition in Holyrood and two years in Westminster very little progress has been made on the federalism front. To put it bluntly, if it was a crime to be a federalist there would be very little evidence with which to convict the Liberal Democrats. We are not the “guarantors of change” Willie Rennie disingenuously claims us to be. Even if the premise that the party is by nature a federalist one is accepted, it is naive to believe that the best channel by which to achieve the benefits of federalism is affiliation to the negative Better Together campaign, which lacks any kind of vision for a post-referendum Scotland.

We have a Deputy Prime Minister who asserts that “we are a devolutionist party”. That, of course, is not entirely true. Federalism is many things but it is not devolutionism. Jo Grimond recognised that a risk of devolution was “too much government” and that “it is no good transferring from Westminster to Edinburgh the diseases which…are bringing British democracy to its knees.” What is needed, insisted Grimond, was an arrangement that is open and accountable – “less government, better government and government nearer home”. He retained suspicions about romantic and inward-looking nationalism but also argued that, as far as Scotland’s future was concerned, “not to go far enough may be worse than going too far”. Devolution is not by nature a liberal arrangement and has a tendency to deliver over-government. Independence on the other hand, while clearly going further than federalism, does have the potential to provide both more effective local government and less government. From a liberal perspective, this has to be the best of both possible worlds.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats talk of federalism and Home Rule, which is welcome. Unfortunately, the actions of the leadership in identifying themselves with the Tories and Labour in a coalition of cynical negativity is likely to compromise both the party’s distinctive message and attempts to portray itself as anything other than committed to unionism. However, public perception is simply one challenge for the Liberal Democrats: another, more pertinent, difficulty being that the scope for achieving whatever the Home Rule Commission recommends is zero. Pragmatic liberals realise that without an additional option on the ballot form the choice is between the status quo, with no clear indication of what Scotland’s future will look like post-referendum, and an independence which offers opportunities for both Scottish liberalism and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

There would be electoral opportunities for the Liberal Democrats in a post-independence Scotland of which the party should be mindful. It is unclear what would happen to the SNP but, even if it continued as a political force, having achieved its primary goal the Scottish Liberal Democrats could be well-positioned to benefit from uncertainty within the SNP’s ranks. Independence could prove to be an antecedent for a liberal revival, especially if the party is able to use the referendum campaign to its advantage. Admittedly, the second possibility is looking more remote by the day but it remains an inescapable fact that independence could serve the Liberal Democrats well, in a similar way to how devolution has benefitted the Scottish Conservatives.

Of course, embracing independence will require surrendering the commitment to a federal Britain in which Scotland is part. I have no difficulty with this, especially as inaction on the part of the leadership is largely responsible for undermining my faith in the achievement of federalism. While I would have preferred the party leadership to have done everything in its power to ensure an option more closely relating to our position would be presented to voters, what is precious about federalism isn’t a doctrinal commitment to it but the kind of society it can help create. Federalism, like all constitutional arrangements, is simply a tool; a means to a desired end. The focus must be on end goals, not the journey. We must be mindful that the final destination – a fairer, better Scotland in which liberal values can thrive – is so much more significant than the route by which we arrive there.

In 2014, like millions of other Scots, I will be voting on the future of our nation. I will do so from a commitment to liberal values and a determination to progress the cause of liberalism. That is why I will vote “yes”.

Migration, redistribution and renewal

Thanks to Peter Cranie for today’s guest post. Peter is the North West England Green Party’s lead candidate for the 2014 European election and is currently a candidate for leadership of the Green Party of England and Wales when Caroline Lucas MP steps down in September 2012.

In 1983 my father faced redundancy for the third time. A choice had to be made. Stay and face the likelihood of not working or go south for a job near London. Our family, like many others, migrated. In our case, it was from Bo’ness to High Wycombe, despite my protests at the time.

Even without direct barriers, migration is not an easy decision. You move away from family and friends. Your children are moved from their familiar school to one where they stand out as different. It is not a decision to take lightly, but it is one that is being forced on many families, in the UK and around the globe.

I currently work in Skelmersdale, a new town, which promised a better life to thousands from Liverpool. Our college musical to commemorate Skelmersdale’s 50th anniversary made members of the audience cry as the songs asked where the jobs and promise of a new life went. I live in Liverpool, a city that faced the wrath of Thatcher during the 1980s. Despite its defiance Liverpool has seen depopulation over the past few decades, as some of its brightest and best have left.

At a time when we want to build stronger communities, towns and cities, there is a need for government policies that redistribute wealth from the richest regions to the poorest on a much bigger scale. We need not just the affluent suburbia around London to do well, but the forgotten valleys of Wales and former industrial towns of the north to be at the heart of our goal to build a fairer and sustainable society.

I was one of the migrant gang at school, with Ishrat, Shirwan and Dudley. We need the voice of redistribution to also speak for those who take the difficult decision to uproot from their homes not just to escape war, persecution or environmental degradation, but also for economic reasons and develop a future together united by common social and environmental goals.

Ed Miliband has recently pushed the debate on migration into the spotlight. Unfortunately, he has chosen to use the kind of narrative which is being applauded by right-wing Tories, UKIP, and even the BNP. The Green Party must make the argument that while social, economic and environmental inequalities continue on a European and Global scale, immigration to Britain, one of the world’s richest countries is not just inevitable, it is a logical consequence of the way our global economy works.

At its 2011 autumn conference the Green Party of England and Wales voted to reiterate its support for a liberal immigration policy on the grounds that everyone is equal, whatever the colour of their passport. This was the overwhelming vote of the party conference and it shows that the Greens are not the party to change their tone to suit a small subset of voters in swing marginal seats.

We can’t shy away from this issue, and nor should we allow the bigger parties to use immigration to distract attention from other challenges, like the need to redistribute wealth. If elected as Green Party leader, I would want to strongly make the case to defend immigrants, and to bring the real migration debate into focus. I know from experience that a great deal of economic migration is down to necessity. The language used in our media, with talk of “floods” and “invasion” comes close at times to inciting hatred. We need voices in politics that will challenge and discredit this. It is only by facing up to the real challenges of addressing national, European and Global poverty and inequality that can “stop” immigration.

We are the party of redistribution. We will talk about taxation and we will make the case forcefully. Politics doesn’t need another party to fight over swing voters, but a brave and radical vision. That is what is on offer from the Greens.