A guest this lovely Sunday from Rory Scothorne. Rory is an Edinburgh University student, political blogger and part-time music writer who once had a tweet quoted in the Scotsman and won’t let anyone forget it, although he can’t remember what it actually said. He blogs about Scottish and UK politics at Scotland Thinks, where his writing has been generously described as ‘swivel-eyed’ and ‘a load of codswallop’.

There are few certainties in Scottish politics, but you can always be fairly sure that Labour and the Scottish National Party won’t get on. Since devolution, the enmity between Scotland’s two biggest parties has sizzled with the mix of hatred and grudging respect that characterises the most established of foes.

There are obvious reasons for such a gulf. In the high-school playground of Scottish politics, the SNP are the exciting new kid in town, arriving with a style, self-confidence and controversial past that catches everyone’s eye, allowing them to usurp the established authority that Labour’s long-serving head prefect has begun to take for granted. No wonder they’re upset.

To the SNP, Labour’s dogged loyalty to the union and all its perceived inequities is a betrayal of the Scottish people, abandoning us to distant Tory governments in exchange for a few jobs for life on the green benches in London.

Since Willie Wolfe pulled the SNP over to the left, both parties have been competing for dominance of a similar ideological territory, but their inability to separate on policy leads them both down a spiral of personality politics and cheap sniping.

It doesn’t have to be like this.

It’s precisely that ideological similarity that makes the animosity so frustrating. It turns it into an almost fraternal conflict, a tragic spectacle where we’re all secretly rooting for them to put their differences aside and remember their love for each other. Jimmy Reid, Alex Neil and Jim Sillars all started out in Labour and ended up with the SNP, and the transition for them was not about some tectonic shift in values – merely a realisation that the kind of society they hoped for could best be achieved outside of the United Kingdom.

Of course, nobody really expects Labour and the SNP in Holyrood to put that single, profound difference aside and join forces for social justice. The constitution is far too important an issue in this country to be sidelined.

But what about local government? There’s no doubt that the parties instinctively dislike each other just as much at a local level as they do nationally, but there’s not really much sense to that. After all, SNP councillors can’t legislate for a referendum. Nor can Labour councillors vote against one. That central issue that pushes the two parties apart is completely irrelevant at a council level.

That’s why it makes a great deal of sense for the SNP to consider the Labour Party as coalition partners. The voting system means it’s going to be hard for either to get many majorities without coalition, but if they refuse to try working together that will be a struggle. In many local authorities it’s unlikely that the Liberal Democrats or the Greens will manage to get enough of the vote to top up either Labour or the SNP and take them past the halfway mark, while both will be deeply reluctant to join an unholy union with the Tories while that party leads such an unpopular administration in Westminster.

Edinburgh is a prime example of where this can happen. The capital’s Lib Dems will suffer heavily from the compounding effects of leading an unpopular local administration and joining an even more unpopular UK one, and may well be unable to take Labour or the SNP up to the 29 seats needed to form an administration. The Greens won’t win enough either. There could be an SNP minority with a Conservative confidence and supply deal, but that’s a huge political risk considering the Tories’ unpopularity.

If the SNP become the largest party, Tom Buchanan’s recovery from surgery places Steve Cardownie as the obvious choice for the city’s next leader. He defected from Labour to the SNP in 2005, claiming conversion to independence and stressing his frustration with New Labour. I suspect that’s a frustration shared by many of his former colleagues across Scotland, who might just take a certain subversive glee in pairing up with the Nats.

It was, after all, a makeshift coalition of SNP, Labour and Greens that brought down the Lib Dem/Tory proposals for ‘Alternative Business Models’. They’ve demonstrated a willingness to work together on centre-left goals, and coalition would be an opportunity to demonstrate that they can both put their shared social-democratic vision for Scotland ahead of the cheap party politics that demeans public debate in this country. The symbolism of such unprecedented co-operation taking place in Scotland’s capital would be a breath of fresh air in a city that sorely needs it.

A guest post today from Ian Baxter, Green Party activist and chair of Bonnyrigg & Lasswade Community Council. Ian has stood as a candidate for the Green Party (and its predecessor, the Ecology Party) many times over the last 30 years, and in 2007 came close to becoming Midlothian’s first Green councillor, something he hopes to achieve on May 3rd. He blogs at Hearts and Mines.

Last week, Midlothian Labour followed their Glasgow counterparts in losing an overall majority on the Council when Councillor Jackie Aitchison resigned and immediately submitted his nomination papers as an Independent candidate in next month’s local elections.

There was a time when Midlothian was described as ‘the one party state’ with 17 out of 18 councillors belonging to the Labour Party (albeit on 46% of the vote). That was under First Past the Post. More recently, ahead of the STV-based local elections in 2007, I was told that the then council’s Chief Executive was overheard saying that if Labour didn’t get two of the three seats up for grabs in the Bonnyrigg ward, then it was in serious trouble. If he’s to be believed, then I think that time has now come.

Midlothian has six three-member wards. In 2007, Labour won 9 of the 18 seats, with the Nats 6 and the Lib Dems three. Soon after the election, however, Lib Dem councillor Katie Moffat jumped into the red camp and normal business resumed.

Change is not something Midlothian flirts with much, but this time it might just smack us on the lips. In common with most areas across Scotland, the Nationalists only fielded one candidate per ward five years ago. They all topped the list on first preference votes, with one, Margaret Wilson in Penicuik, not far short of double the vote of her nearest rival.

Throw into the mix a near collapse of the Lib Dem vote, and some local factors which I’ll come to shortly, and this looks very much like one council which will be changing hands in four weeks’ time.

Penicuik has always been a Lib Dem stronghold, once represented by Michael Moore, now Secretary of State for Scotland – indeed he was the one non-Labour councillor back in the days of the one-party state. In 2007 they came close to winning two of the three councillors there. However, the SNP, fielding two candidates, have a decent chance of removing the Lib Dem, though my bet is there will be no change.

Les Thacker, the Lib Dems’ councillor in Midlothian West will not be so lucky. Loanhead and district has always been fluid electorally, and with 9 candidates standing, it will again provide a bit of interest. My guess is SNP Group leader Owen Thompson will return along with his running mate Andrew Coventry replacing the Lib Dem representation.

In Midlothian East, Katie Moffat only just scraped in last time for the Lib Dems, but even with her red rosette I can’t see Labour taking two seats here. Another SNP gain, I’d say.

Midlothian South will be a hard fought battleground between SNP and Labour. Last time it was 2-1 to Labour, with newly elected SNP MSP Colin Beattie and Labour councillor Wilma Chalmers both standing down, it’s a difficult one to call. It could go either way, but I think SNP will sneak two in.

In Dalkeith, SNP’s Craig Statham and Labour’s Alex Bennett were two votes apart on first preferences last time, with Depute Provost Margot Russell squeaking in for Labour on just 761 first prefs. Local factors will come into play, with controversy surrounding the Woodburn Community Centre possibly affecting the Labour vote. However, with neither of the SNP’s candidates a sitting councillor, I think Labour may prevail.

Which brings us to Bonnyrigg, where once again I will be flying the flag for the Greens. In 2007, Bob Constable was elected for the SNP on the first round of counting with 400 votes to spare. Jackie Aitchison – now standing as an independent – was elected immediately after. Labour’s Derek Milligan had to wait until the seventh and final round before eliminating myself to take the third spot.

With two Nats standing, and the Labour vote potentially split three ways, there will be a fair amount of vote transfers taking place before anyone reaches quota. Bob Constable and Derek Milligan (benefitting this time from alphabetic precedence) will probably be elected – although Derek’s well known association with a number of controversial local issues and tendency to hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons could mean there is an outside chance his running mate Louie Milliken may overtake him.

So who gets the third seat in Bonnyrigg is the question. Without Labour backing, Jackie Aitchison is unlikely to succeed, though where his transfers go and what he does and says during the campaign may be critical. The SNP has not been particularly active locally and Labour candidate Louie Milliken is virtually unknown in these parts. Unlike in 2007, I am now chair of the community council and have been very active in exposing the Labour Council’s maladministration over allegedly missing grant funding made to Bonnyrigg Rose for a car park which still hasn’t materialised several years on.

Given the local factors involved, my own activity over many years, the relative anonymity of my main rivals and some very encouraging canvass returns, I am optimistic for my chances here in being the first Green councillor on Midlothian Council.

Should that happen, I would see the make-up of Midlothian Council on 4th May being SNP 9, Labour 7, Lib Dem 1, Green 1. How that translates into power will be interesting.

Another guest today from Dan Phillips. You may have seen his biog a week ago, but here it is again. Dan’s a press photographer by trade but a political obsessive at heart. A small ‘l’ liberal, he blogs at liberalsellout.wordpress.com. The blog has taken to dissecting the local elections in Edinburgh of late and this is his latest post in this vein.

If you as a party were fighting for your life, you’d pull the finger out.

Or you would have thought so. It’s less than a month to go till the polls and not a peep has been heard from the Lib Dems.

They were the last to put out their candidate list. Not a single policy has been trailed in the local media. Not a hint of what they would do in a coalition. And this is a tipping point for the birdy badged party.

A perfect storm in Edinburgh meant they were annihilated at Holyrood. Trams, the UK Coalition combined with the god-awful campaign they ran conspired to remove all their representatives from the capital – not even an insurance list seat.

You would think they’d have learnt. But given the inertia from their camp apparently not.

In 2007 they clinched 17 councillors – but only just. Seven of those were in the last round barely scraping past the finish line. Some didn’t even make the quota but were merely the last candidate standing. In short they won by being everyone’s second favourite – they are the lowest common denominator.

But need I say it, the context is ever so slightly different now. The Nats are standing two candidates in many of those same wards where the Lib Dems won through inertia (like Sighthill, Craigentinny and Portobello to name a few) while the paucity of independent candidates in this election means there is no second chance to get it right. If you don’t get a decent haul of first preferences, expect execution in the first round.

So how to avoid this fate? Well you could put out at least some sort of policy. Maybe trumpet your successes as a council over the last five years. Do something to cut the tram albatross from around your neck. Possibly, and I know this is radical, give your lost voters a reason to return, and the hard core a reason to turn up.

Or you could do nothing and let the self imposed vacuum be filled with the policies of the opposition.

It’s up to the Lib Dems what they do. But to my mind there are only four safe-ish seats, and that’s a relative term. Edinburgh’s voting patterns contrive to bind the UK Coalition partners together. In three seats where the Lib Dems are strongest, so are the Tories. And we know that the Tories prefer the Lib Dems substantially over any other party, so expect to see the blues haul the injured Lib Dems over the line in Almond, Corstorphine and Meadows/Morningside. In Drumbrae/Gyle the Lib Dems had 45% of the first preference in 2007 – it would be a colossal disaster if they could not return there.

Everywhere else? Well it’s up to them. I suspect that Southside will return Mackenzie for the Lib Dems but it is very narrow, election fans. Beyond that every seat will have to be wrung from the opposition.

The defence to such inaction could be that the SNP have been silent too. That in 2007 the Nats hadn’t put out a manifesto at this stage either. But the Nats aren’t at risk of being torn asunder by the four other parties currently lashed to their limbs.

If you wish to be uncharitable to the Lib Dems you could note they have made one promise in their ‘Edinburgh Voice’ newspaper. The strapline directly underneath the masthead on one reading declares an Edinburgh ‘free from the Scottish Liberal Democrats’. Carry on like this and they might just deliver it.