Archive for category Holyrood

New polling, specifically our new polling

Three major Scottish institutions today join forces (well, two major Scottish institutions plus Better Nation) to start a regular monthly series of polls, running at least up to the independence referendum. The other two are the Daily Record, who today report on the independence numbers (Yes: 39, No: 48, or Yes: 45, No 55 if the don’t knows are excluded), and 5 Million Questions, based at Dundee University, who are providing the analysis for them.

The data comes from Survation, a BPC member company, and is (of course) based on a ~1,000 representative sample of Scottish voters. Everyone involved has the option for other questions (I’ve got one more I’ll be writing up later this week), and we’ll be offering a crowdfunding option shortly if you have burning questions in mind. Organisations wishing to take out questions should contact Survation – the omnibus format means there’s room for many more to be asked.

Each month we’ll be doing a Holyrood voting intention as well. So, without further ado, here are those numbers. Changes are to the 2011 result (with those results rounded to avoid false precision), and seat numbers are derived from Weber Shandwick’s Scotland Votes site – that will be the case until we have the capacity to do a seat predictor ourselves.

Parties Constituency Region Total
Vote share (+/-) Seats (+/-) Vote share (+/-) Seats (+/-) Seats (+/-) %
SNP 45 (±0) 44 (-9) 40 (-4) 15 (-1) 59 (-10) 45.7
Labour 34 (+2) 24 (+9) 28 (+2) 17 (-5) 41 (+4) 31.8
Conservative 13 (-1) 3 (±0) 11 (-1) 8 (-4) 11 (-4) 8.5
Liberal Democrats 5 (-3) 2 (±0) 7 (+2) 5 (+2) 7 (+2) 5.4
Scottish Greens 8 (+4) 10 (+8) 10 (+8) 7.8
Others 3 (+2) 0 6 (-3) 1 (±0) 1 (±0) 0.8

I’ll be honest, I’m surprised that such a small change in the first vote figures should lead to nine constituency losses for the SNP. Having sought to avoid false precision, though, the rounding does marginally bring down the level of change here (i.e. Labour would be up 2.3%, not 2% etc). But one of these seats has flipped already (Dunfermline), and there were a lot of other pretty narrow constituency wins for the SNP which this projection would see flip: Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Central, Clydebank and MilngaviePaisley, Kirkcaldy, Aberdeen CentralGlasgow Shettleston, and the closest 2011 result, Glasgow Anniesland. I’m not really sure about Weber Shandwick’s calculations for some of those, notably Clydebank and Milngavie and also Aberdeen Central, but so be it.

The two other surprising results would be the Lib Dems being up a little but still being beaten by the Greens on the second vote. Again, much as I’d like to see a Parliament full of Greens, I suspect the party’s ground campaign remains too weak to support quite this level of triumph: probably three in Lothian, two each in Glasgow and Highlands, plus one each in North East Scotland and Mid Scotland & Fife, and one in either South or West. Quite the haul.

And in terms of who would form the next Scottish Government, an SNP-led administration would seem inevitable on those numbers, either a numerically stronger minority than the 2007-2011 period or a coalition with their pick of any one of the three smaller parties.

Clearly all of this is over the event horizon of the independence referendum, so it’s just a bit of fun. But for the SNP to be looking strong for a third term despite the coordinated fire they’re taking in the referendum debate is still quite extraordinary: it’s not hyperbole to say that they do look to have forged themselves into the default party of government at Holyrood. More next month!

Bring me the head of Keith Brown!

For all their faults, you can’t deny that the Labour governments of the early Scottish Parliament were better at rail policy than the SNP have been. The rebuilding of the vital link between Bathgate and Glasgow, Larkhall to Motherwell and the Borders railway were all projects that achieved critical mass in those first sessions. Even the Edinburgh trams, conceived with the best of intentions but executed with the worst incompetency and lack of enthusiasm, will turn out to be a wise investment in the long term.

The SNP on the other hand seem intent on standing in the way of rail and sustainable mass transit at every turn. The Edinburgh-Glasgow line via Falkirk was all set to be a benchmark for the rest of the Scottish rail network until Keith Brown’s department realised just how much money they would need to carry out economically dubious projects such as the doubling of the entire A9.

Today the self-interested people-hating rail lobby in Scotland, concerned only with giving people better and cheaper public transport and blind to the real issues facing hardworking people such as the lack of a slip road and city-centre parking charges, Transform Scotland have nailed their colours to the mast in a broadside on the SNP government.

Transform Scotland have essentially produced a wish list or projects that need funded, with an emphasis on schemes that would lead to carbon reductions, better connectivity for peripheral areas and nullify the arguments for hugely expensive road projects. Rather than repeat what they have said I’ve compiled my own list to send to Keith Brown.

1) Electrify the Highland Main Line from Inverness to Perth and build a new section from Perth to Inverkeithing:

At the moment a lot of the safety issues on the A9 are caused by lorries that could easily transfer to rail. Electric trains climb hills quicker and rebuilding sections of double track that previously existed with a few additions would be much cheaper than the scheme to double in size the trunk road. This is a model employed in Sweden where existing transport corridors have been used to minimise impact on land and where the train is visibly faster than the cars alongside. As for the ‘new’ section, that would just be a new variation of an old railway closed in the 1960s.

2) Stop building car parks and extend the Glasgow Subway above ground.

To say Glasgow’s public transport is dysfunctional is an understatement. Useless private owner buses and three different ticket systems for the buses, subway and the big trains. The East End of Glasgow is undeveloped enough that it would be easy to extend the Subway above ground. There are a couple of different scenarios for this, but the most sensible would probably be a line running from between Buchanan Street and St Enoch that surfaced between High Street and the river, then ran out to the public transport voids of Easterhouse, Baillieston and the sports village. The Docklands Light Railway in London is an example of how this can be done relatively cheaply. It would provide a direct connection between the East End and West End, enlarging the city centre and reducing reliance in poor bus services.

 

3) Mutualise the buses.

Edinburgh has the best buses in Scotland, and with the exception perhaps of the heavily subsidised London network, the best in Britain. The simple reason for this is that it is owned, though not run, by the council and reinvests any profit into the service. People from Glasgow and Aberdeen wonder at the relative quality of an Edinburgh bus. In the long term Edinburgh should look to integrate trams, buses and Edinburgh Crossrail into one unit with the same tickets.

 4) Intercity trains

If you’ve taken an intercity train in Scotland you’ll probably have clocked that they are much the same as short distance trains. Whether you travel from Aberdeen to Glasgow or Glasgow to Gartcosh it will be on the same sort of train. They were originally developed for commuters in the South-East and English midlands, being an off-the-shelf model when Firstgroup opted for them. This means that for things like catering and luggage space they are unsuited to trans-Scotland work. Given the varying numbers between summer and winter in Scotland, it would make sense to invest in German-style push-pull trains where coaches can be added without having to keep whole trains on standby at great expense. This could also mean more room for bikes, buggies and even parcels, as well as allowing the same coaches to be used on electric and non-electric parts of the network. Aberdeen to Dumfries direct anyone?

5) Fares you can afford

A few years ago the SSP, in a fit of utopian hubris and with a lack of understanding of how the economics of public transport works, came up with the idea of all public transport in Scotland being free. Fundamentally, railways and buses cost money to run and it would be obtuse for someone with little need to travel to be paying for someone who regularly had to commute from Aberdeen to Ayr in the name of solidarity. The levels of subsidy it would require would also remove capital from investment budgets just to keep the wheels rolling. Although fractionally greener, it makes as much sense as giving out free petrol but not mending any of the roads.

A better system, which could make full use of the half-baked Scotland smartcard the SNP have come up with, would be to offer people incremental gains on their journeys by giving them both affordable startup fares and air-miles style points. This might mean that the last quarter of the year on your Glasgow public transport would end up being free or the application of a 25 per cent discount on all fares, increasing to 50 or 75 after certain amounts of usage.  Instead of looking at journeys as finite events it rewards behaviour over time and means that there is always an incentive to take the train or bus.

6) Connect the cities to their surrounding areas.

Pioneered in Germany, tram trains use a combination of street running and old railway lines to construct low-cost ways of getting from rural areas into medium sized cities. A city like Aberdeen could potentially benefit from tram trains to places like Banchory and Ellon. They are quicker and more reliable than buses and can potentially connect forgotten towns directly to the national rail network without having to get on a bus.

7) Direct trains from the Far North to Edinburgh.

At the moment getting from the Far North to the capital is a hassle. Given that it is potentially only a six hour journey by rail, there is a case to be made for night trains to Edinburgh that mean people from Orkney, Caithness and Sutherland can be in Edinburgh for breakfast. Long term aspirations to decentralise and repopulate Highland Scotland means that innovative approaches to moving people around are needed.

8) Edinburgh/Glasgow-Paris/Brussels

When the channel tunnel was built Scotland was promised a passport to the continent, but the plans were quickly shelved. If climate targets are to be met and capacity problems addressed at Scotland’s airports, it is time the Scottish and European capitals were connected. This could even mean European subsidy for the project as part of the commitment to improving and maintaining European transport networks. Sadly, Scotland is considered as part of the UK at present and is expected to magically utilise the concentration of European connections in London.

9) Insist on standards of cycle infrastructure for all new roads.

We’ll always need roads, just perhaps not motorways. At the moment new roads are built without any requirement to make them suitable for cyclists. Simple legislation on separate cycle lanes would mean that any road ‘improvements’ would have to improve it for cyclists and walkers as well as motorists. The most ambitious policy in the world on this is Hamburg’s which has vowed to incrementally improve its infrastructure until the city centre is car free and cycleways are the primary arteries for short distance transport.

10) Replace Keith Brown with Alison Johnstone

This is as simple as it sounds. Out goes a transport minister who likes spending a lot of public money on roads most of the public will not use, in comes a woman with a vision for how transport can be made cheaper and more accessible for everyone.

We’re off to Tillicoultry

Thursday didn’t start well for me: after waking up late and rushing out the flat I had huge problems making myself understood to anybody from the woman at that AMT stand in Queen St through folk on twitter and was incomprehensible when I got to the office. I never have gotten the hang of Thursdays.

The point I was trying to make on Twitter was that the biggest problem I’d encountered while canvassing for the Labour party was the lack of a referendum code for “they haven’t thought it through”. By which I didn’t mean that the people hadn’t considered it (most people have, though quite a lot haven’t) but that the poor unfortunate we’d gotten out of bed at 11am on a Saturday morning would, with varying degrees of certainity, vote No in September because they didn’t think the Yes campaign had properly worked out how independence woudl actually function. The biggest problem for Yes, I attempted to wittily observe, was that we badly needed a code for that because it comes up all the time. In the end I mangled it all and subsquent attempts at clarification only made it worse.

The Yes campaign’s response to the bucket of cold water thrown over the idea of a sterling zone seems likely to make that problem worse for them and is something which, as James argued yesterday, could easily have been predicted.

The basic problem with the idea of the sterling zone is that the two main arguments that pro-Sterlingzone advocates use also apply to the “Sterlingisation” policy plan B of unilaterally using the pound without a formal union, support from the Bank of England and so on.

Firstly the argument about lower transaction costs in what will still be a closely entwined pair of economies is obviously true but also obviously applicable to Sterlingisation since it’s all about the physical and electronic representations of money avoiding conversion, exchange rates and so on.

The second argument that Yes put forward for a sterlingzone is that of the balance of payments, which is a rather drier and more technical argument. This suggests that because Scottish oil is included in Sterling trade it helps stabilise exchange rates through increasing global demand for Sterling which helps offset our tendency towards importing foreign goods such as food. This is true but, again, is largely applicable to a Sterlingised Scotland as well as a Sterlingzone Scotland.

Meanwhile the benefits that an independent Scotland would get from a Sterlingzone are largely inapplicable to a Sterlingised Scotland: no input into the MPCs membership or, more importantly, its terms of reference, no shared regulation or lender of last resort and so on.

While ultimately a political decision for the rUK it’s not really clear to me why they would take on the risks and costs associated with the Sterlingzone when not doing so and Scotland continuing to use the pound unilaterally would retain the major benefits for rUK.

Probably the most damaging aspect of this, however, is the lack of foresight that this displays by the SNP (and it is principally the SNP part of Yes that favoured this route, although not all in the SNP do). Being left with “the Fiscal Commission have some Nobel medals” and “if they don’t agree we’ll default on the debt” looks petulant and amateurish.

Alex Salmond will have to do a lot better at communicating a plan B in the next few days than I did yesterday to pull this back. I suspect Sterlingisation will be the backstop, punting to a new Pound Tillicoultry would open up even more questions.

What’s the weather like in Montenegro?

MONTENEGROThe latest round of “positive campaigning” from the Westminster parties centres again on the currency. It’s clear they’ve decided it’s the SNP’s weak spot, and they want to hammer on it. So now all three of Westminster’s parties of government have declared (or will declare, so the BBC have been briefed) that an independent Scotland would be barred from the SNP’s preferred approach, a formal currency union with the rUK.

On one level this is a trap the SNP have laid for themselves. Their policy has essentially evolved like this: “Yey Euro! No, wait, the Euro’s collapsing. Shit. What shall we do? Well, we could have our own currency. But that sounds scary. What’s the only other option? Keep the pound. Phew. Sounds safe.”

A better approach would clearly have been to say “well, on day one Scotland still continue to use the pound, as is normal when countries achieve independence, and it will be for the Scottish people to decide whether they prefer to move towards an independent currency, either as an end point or as a step towards the Euro, or to seek an ongoing currency union with rUK”. Not least because then the post-2016 Scottish Government would have a specific democratic mandate for a sterling zone if that was indeed the outcome of the election. Fear of uncertainty is why this is off the table. But if you want to know what happens after a future election, you’d better get used to uncertainty for obvious reasons.

Given that formal currency union would require Westminster’s assent, though, today’s stramash was entirely predictable (Jeff saw something similar coming in November 2011, although I disagree with some of his conclusions). Perhaps the SNP genuinely like the sight of Tory/Labour/Lib Dem bullying on this issue. It certainly looks ugly, but I can see Osborne’s logic: like it or not, this announcement does take the SNP’s preferred option off the table. They can’t keep saying “once we’ve had a Yes vote Westminster will have to take Scotland seriously”. Well, they can keep saying it if they wish, but it sounds increasingly ridiculous and practically as petulant as the Westminster parties’ position. Strategically, the Tories are correct to assume that this mess must reduce the chance of a Yes vote, and of course it’s not just them. With all three of the biggest parties at Westminster now publicly opposed to currency union, the SNP are effectively relying on persuading one or more of them changing their mind. Not a solid basis for the last seven months of a referendum campaign.

The reality is that on 24 March 2016, the SNP’s proposed independence day, we absolutely will be using sterling in Scotland’s shops. Our bank accounts will still be denominated in sterling. The pre-dissolution SNP Government has no mandate to change that: it’d be utterly undemocratic to do so prior to the election which kicks off on that day. And then on 7 May 2016, when Scotland wakes up with its first independent government, we’ll still be using sterling no matter what. That government will have had a policy (or policies, if it’s a coalition) on the currency, but the starting point will be the pound in your pocket.

And the basis for the pound in your pocket won’t be a currency union. It can’t be. Even if Westminster were entirely relaxed about it, the SNP don’t have a mandate to establish a currency union in the September 2014-March 2016 interregnum and to tie future Scottish Governments’ hands. We’ll be using the pound like Montenegro uses the Euro, or (as Jeff pointed out) like Cambodia uses the dollar. We won’t have a seat on the Bank of England’s (!) Monetary Policy Committee. Scottish budgets won’t have to go to Westminster for oversight, or vice versa, as formal currency union would require. Nothing will have changed.

At that point, if that new independent Scottish Government has been elected on a platform of pursuing currency union, they can get on and pursue it and hope that the post-2015 rUK Government would support it. The only easy route to co-operation on this would be if Labour somehow managed to win both elections while losing the referendum. But if currency union is sought and rUK Ministers stick to today’s line, there would only be two options for those future Scottish Ministers: the Montenegro way, or the Montenegro way moving towards our own currency like a normal independent state. That way we could manage our affairs without our economy still being skewed towards London and without our fiscal policy still being skewed towards austerity. An independent currency seems almost inevitable, especially in the longer term. Or it would do if the Yes campaign wasn’t bogged down by the SNP’s short-sightedness on this issue. They need to think again or they risk jeopardising the recent progress that’s been made towards a Yes vote.

Putting human rights at the heart of Scottish foreign policy

Thanks to Andrew Smith for today’s guest post: Andrew is a spokesperson for Campaign Against Arms Trade and tweets here

Rosyth subOne of the most positive contributions to the independence debate has been the Scottish Government’s recent commitment to a ‘do no harm’ exports policy in the event of a Yes vote.

Earlier this month the Scottish Government’s Minister for External Affairs and International Development, Humza Yousaf, wrote a well received blog for The Herald that presented the Scottish Government’s vision in contrast with the current UK one, saying “our good work globally will not be undermined by the selling of arms to some of the world’s most brutal dictators as has been done by previous UK governments.”

I was very impressed, but I wanted to know more about which governments Yousaf and his colleagues see as ‘brutal dictators’ and which they see as potential partners. The UK’s links with regimes that abuse human rights are well known, so I contacted Yousaf on Twitter to ask him to clarify what criteria the Scottish Government would hope to apply in an independent Scotland.

He responded very quickly, telling me “We look towards the Swedish model of Policy Coherence where civil society provides the barometer in conjunction with government.”

The problem is that the Swedish policy has almost as many inconsistencies and contradictions as the UK one. Swedish exports from 2012 included €57 million worth of military exports to Algeria and €6.5 million to Bahrain. If we look to 2011, Sweden’s largest customers included Saudi Arabia, to whom they sold almost €500,000,000 of military equipment, and UAE, who bought over €70 million. Although it could be argued that the Swedish policy is an improvement on the UK’s one, it’s also clear that it’s a policy to be challenged rather than replicated.

A disappointing aspect of the recent debates about the impact of Scottish independence on jobs in the Govan shipyard and Rosyth naval base is that they have focused almost entirely on how the status quo can be maintained. Very few voices have focused on the ways in which the Scottish Government can encourage a more positive and constructive manufacturing sector, with less focus on military industry and the arms trade.

Yousaf’s goal is admirable, but it needs to be underpinned by a greater clarity. According to the Scottish Council for Development & Industry, there are 185 arms companies with offices in Scotland, which employ 12,600 skilled workers and account for annual sales of £1.8 billion, so what happens to them is obviously a matter of concern.

One of the most thoughtful responses to the launch of the White Paper came from the Unite union’s Scottish Secretary, Pat Rafferty, who said “We also believe there is a case for the creation of a Scottish defence diversification agency to help offset the employment impact on the proposed removal of Trident.” With a wider brief, such an agency could also examine alternative work for the other people currently employed in the military industry in Scotland.

Not only would a ‘do no harm’ foreign policy present fresh and ambitious new thinking on an area that is traditionally done in the dark, but in the short term it would set a challenge to pro-union campaigners to look at the impact UK arms exports have on global peace, security and human rights and reflect on how this can be improved.

This isn’t the first time that a high ranking politician has spoken about the need to make human rights central to foreign policy. In 1997 the late UK foreign secretary, Robin Cook, spoke about the need for a foreign policy with human rights at its heart. He also argued for the conversion of military industry to socially useful production. Unfortunately neither of these goals were realised, but Scottish people should remember his arguments and take warning from his failures, whether in an independent Scotland or as part of the UK.

ironic pic credit