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What a difference a PEB makes…

Apr 11

Posted by Malc in Elections, Holyrood | 29 Comments

Or does it?

Each of the 5 parties with representatives at Holyrood now have (at least) one party election broadcast in the public domain.  There are five different messages here, and several different styles. But what do we really get from each of them? Well let’s try to find something positive and something negative with each of them.

SNP (5 April)

The SNP’s “Monty Python” video is an original-ish idea, its funny and it taps into people’s psyche when it comes to elections – the “why bother, what have they ever done for us” mentality. On the other hand, there’s a kind of “that’s what we got in the last election – what are you going to give us this time around?” notion as well.

Scottish Labour (6 April)

(I can’t find Labour’s latest PEB on YouTube or on the party’s website to embed here, but you can see the video of it on the BBC website here).

Labour’s “Iain Gray focus piece” is more about introducing the man who might be First Minister than any Labour policies, and while the tactic is probably right – and certainly warranted – when you compare it with Welsh Labour’s video which is based on the same format, Carwyn Jones shows Iain Gray how it should be done. The idea of talking about your family and using that as your frame of reference for politics works… but I’m not sure Iain Gray sells it right.

Scottish Conservative (7 April)

The Conservative video uses the same principle – leader Annabel Goldie talking to camera, touting the achievements of the Scottish Tories during the last session of parliament, pointing out that it was only with their support that certain measures (Council Tax freeze, small business bonus, 1,000 police officers…) were passed. I expect this message will be the central theme to their campaign. However, the format – with the leader shown at home, out rambling, birdwatching – is tired (indeed, its just about the same idea Labour have had) and I feel like I’ve seen this PEB a million times before.

Scottish Liberal Democrat (8 April)

The Lib Dems video is, for me, the most bizarre. Granted, it is certainly the most focused on a single issue (stopping the centralisation of police forces) which means you get a bit more information on that issue… but it just seems a bit small. Where do the Lib Dems stand on other things? What is their vision for Scotland? Does this issue really warrant the 2 minutes of my time over everything else? Also, the style is a bit weird. It seems to me like a news report – I’m expecting to hear “Tavish Scott, Reporting Scotland, standing beside a police car” at the end. And surely you re-shoot the bits where the leaflet gets blown about a bit, no?

Scottish Greens (11 April)

And the Greens – the concept is good here. Let’s have as many different people, different voices, different faces, from all over Scotland giving one message: “we’re using our second vote to vote Green because…” Its a simple message, delivered simply and effectively. However, each of the previous four parties utilise their leader – and I think the Greens could have given a bit more public recognition if they’d had one of their more prominent figures, Patrick Harvie or Eleanor Scott, or even Martin Ford, involved in the video. Ordinary folk work to a point – but they aren’t the ones standing for election.

So – is there value in party election broadcasts? Any more so than leaflets? No idea. Gives me something to critique though…

UPDATE:
On a vaguely-related note.  I’m looking to put together a post with some folks views on why they are voting a particular way in May.  Hopefully, I’ll get around 9 or 10 – and then we can have a debate around the issues arising out of that.  I’m not looking for much – 100 words or so – setting out a positive case why you’ll be voting for X in May.  Anyone interested – drop me an email or tweet, or a comment and we’ll set it up.  Cheers.

Where did LIT all go wrong…?

Apr 10

Posted by Jeff in Economy, Elections | 34 Comments

During the 2007 election campaign, it was billed by the SNP as “the biggest tax cut in a generation” but this weekend sees the SNP manifesto team frantically working behind the scenes to either patch up their Local Income Tax policy or pull the plug on it entirely. My personal prediction is that there is too much uncertainty, too much suspicion around what the tax will mean for Scottish taxpayers that the Nationalists will decide it’s not worth including as a blatant target for attack in its manifesto. The hitherto successful strategy of messaging ‘record, team, vision’ will be deemed as critical to carrying them over the line and anything (or anyone) that works against that over the next few weeks will be swept aside, LIT included.

This whole issue stems from the electorally toxic news that Alex Salmond has been using the courts to prevent the detail of Local Income Tax going public, inviting rival parties and the wider public to speculate on what is so damaging in the calculations that we shouldn’t get to see them less than a month shy of an election. Amid heightened tensions over how Scotland can meet a spending squeeze of some 12.5% over the next few years, this is the worst problem at the worst time for the SNP and, really, someone, somewhere has taken their eye off the ball.

The bad news appears to be that, had Local Income Tax been introduced, there would have been a shortfall of some £800m which would have required a rate of 4.6p on income tax to cover. This adds fuel to the flame of the otherwise disingenuous claim that Local Income Tax would make Scotland the highest taxed part of the UK. (It may carry the highest level of income tax, but that is to ignore the key point that Council Tax would be scrapped)

The appeal of Local Income Tax (which, along with Land Value Tax, I am very much a fan of) is that payment largely comes through PAYE so that people know what they are paid net from their employer is largely theirs to spend on whatever they please. That is, the money that lands in your account each month is yours. There is little doubt that the simple mechanics of Council Tax can get people into trouble with cash management and no doubt reduce the tax intake for councils as some simply cannot afford to pay the tax once the reminders start landing on doormats.

The hyperlocalism of the tax is appealing too, although the SNP wish to set the rate nationally. Under the Lib Dem proposal the local councils would be more accountable and value for money would be more recognisable. That can only be an improvement on the status quo.

However, as fine an idea as this local tax is, it is facing some new challenges in 2011:

– We’ve already voted on Local Income Tax and the electorate will be less sympathetic to even the same promises this time around. The SNP may well claim that it needs more MSPs to deliver the policy in the face of hostile opposition but, rightly or wrongly, I can envisage that falling on deaf ears.
– We’ve had four years of a Council Tax freeze which, somewhat ironically, makes Council Tax less unpopular than it might have been and arguably less unpopular than it was in 2007. That also makes LIT a harder sell.
– The Greens have pulled together a fully costed and highly attractive Land Value Tax policy that has garnered a good bit of press for the party. LIT is not longer ‘the only show in town’.
– The SNP is suggesting that it is keen to continue minority Government if it emerges as the largest party, how that squares with delivering a Local Income Tax that requires a parliamentary majority, it is not quite clear.

With the SNP and Lib Dems only a couple of votes short in delivering a Local Income Tax in the 2007-11 term, the Lib Dems demoting it in this year’s manifesto (1 mention in 89 pages) and the policy now a millstone around the SNP’s necks, it is looking increasingly likely that this policy has had its day.

Where that leaves us with five different parties and three or four different policies is anyone’s guess. The only option that I can see emanating from the pack, assuming the SNP does wash its hands of LIT, is an SNP/Green deal on a Land Value Tax at some point down the line and only if the numbers fall in that favour.

The tax brings in more money each year, makes efficient use of land/buildings (fileld or empty) all the while not requiring higher bills from the vast majority of houses that are banded A-E. It is, to my mind, a cleaner and more fully formed version of Vince Cable’s reasonable Mansion Tax policy from last year.

Patrick Harvie says that for the next Parliament “it is either Land Value Tax or bust”. Despite being a fan of LIT, I am inclined to agree.

Election round up: the media battle

Apr 9

Posted by The Burd in Elections, Holyrood, Media | 42 Comments

How does the saying go?  A picture is worth a thousand words and elections are no different.  The uninitiated might think the battle is for copy and content but no.  One big, fat visual is enough to make even the most grumpy campaign co-ordinator smile.  For a moment anyhow.

So, two and a bit weeks in, a slew of manifesto launches later, who is winning this particular battle?

Never thought I’d be saying this but STV vs the Beeb?  No contest.  Hats off to Matt Roper, the digital content geek at STV -  the commercial channel has wiped the floor with the one what we pay for.  And frankly, have a right to expect better from.

STVstole a march with the first televised leaders’ debate and a live blog facility.  Its offering includes news, news round ups, live streaming, a postcode searchable facility for your constituency and region, profiles of them and the candidates, blogs and analysis, a twitter stream for all candidates, its pack of reporters assigned a party each, a polling panel, innovative programming and of course, Bernard Ponsonby overseeing proceedings.

What does BBC Scotland offer?  A shoestring in comparison.  No dedicated election space or heading.  A bog standard round up page that scrolls the oldest first (even the burd knows that is a big no-no).  There is, though, an impressively designed candidate map with postcode search facility.  And of course, Brian’s Blog (Taylor in case you were wondering), though it’s not been updated since Wednesday. Tsk, tsk.  It is all a bit, well bitty and half hearted.

The fact remains, though, that newspapers and what they print during the campaign will play a big role in informing the voting public, even if they are no longer the influencers they once were.  Looking at this week through the papers’ pictures provides some clues about who they will all be backing and urging their readers to back.

It’s unlikely that the Record will spring a surprise on us this election by transferring its traditional allegiance from Labour.  The Tories’ manifesto launch got a whole page (with an image of Annabel looking like she was about to eat the thing), the Lib Dems a paltry half page with a bigger photie of Iain Gray than Tavish Scott, and Labour a full two pages, complete with graphics, analysis and one or two well place pics of the leader.  Everyday this week (I think  – funnily enough, I’m not an habitual Record reader) Iain Gray’s fizzog featured somewhere, though Nicola Sturgeon also scored a few.  If Record readers still can’t recognise Mr Gray at the end of the campaign, it won’t be for its trying.

The Sun appears to be moving towards backing the SNP if its current coverage and slant is any indicator. Some nice pics of Salmond, highly positive coverage, a couple of front page exclusives, all adding up to what seems like a successful wooing.  A result in any party’s book.

Of the two Scottish broadsheets, the Scotsman is playing it most canny.  Pretty fair, proportionate coverage so far for all the parties and a share of the images.  Plenty action shots which they all like: how refreshing that someone is playing nicely.  The Herald – well, if they don’t come out for Labour I’m going to be a curry and a tenner down.  The Tories got a nice pic of Annabel (with a bizarre rainbow background) and damning headlines for their manifesto launch, but by far and away the best image of Iain Gray this week appeared in Thursday’s edition to coincide with his party’s manifesto launch.

The SNP, of course, tried to steal Labour’s thunder with Brian Cox’s endorsement of the SNP in this election.  Did it work?  Sort of.  A great big splash and clever headline on the front page of the Sun on the morning of Labour’s manifesto launch ensured coverage spilling over into the broadcast news headlines and into other newspapers the following day.

They did the same to the Lib Dems, with the endorsement of Salmond for FM from retiring MSP John Farquhar Munro.  They needn’t have bothered – no one was up for covering it much anyway.  Yesterday’s people would appear to be the view of the meeja, which tells us a lot.

In terms of news management, the SNP is playing a blinder, though its Scottish Futures Fund launch did fall a bit flat, when such an initiative deserved much more coverage.  Its experience tells, not least because they have veteran media man Kevin Pringle at the helm.  But they should be careful on two counts.  Playing dirty can always backfire, especially when the other parties have time to prepare to counter the SNP’s manifesto launch this coming Tuesday.  Moreover, the problem with blizzarding is that news – and pictures, as happened this week – can get lost in the whiteout.

But of course, the images that dominated the week are the ones that Iain Gray will want to forget.  Whoever is advising him on media management deserves a dressing down.  Or locked in a cupboard until it’s all over and replaced with some more experienced heavyweights.

There’s a Goldilocks effect at play right now.  The SNP?  Too much.  Labour?  Too little.  The media with its low boredom threshhold and attention span needs to be fed just the right amount of stories and images to sate its appetite.  Otherwise, incidents like the one in Glasgow Central station end up dominating the headlines.

Does Labour’s PR fail mark a downward turning point as some journalists and commentators are suggesting?  Nah.  A bad media day dents the morale of the party concerned and provides a filip for the opposition.  Such incidents provide a day’s news, and while they might entertain the masses for a moment, they do not actually influence the outcome of elections.  Anyone remember Jennifer’s ear?

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#SP11 Region Watch – Conclusions

Apr 8

Posted by Malc in Elections, Holyrood | 44 Comments

We now have a full slate of Scottish regions accounted for through our Region Watch series.  You can see each of the individual posts by clicking on the links below:

Highlands & Islands
North East Scotland
Lothians
Mid-Scotland & Fife
West Scotland
Central Scotland
South Scotland
Glasgow

The astute among you will probably have taken note of our predictions in each region and know the overall scores on the doors.  To pull it all together, the regional results have been collated in the image below:

Which makes the total seats:

Also, information I had noted throughout on the split of candidates between men and women, and between new and returning MSPs.  With our analysis, I make it that we’re currently projecting 46 female MSPs (35%) which is a marginal increase on the previous session.  We’d also see 34 new faces in Holyrood (26%) which, given we had 20 MSPs standing down, shouldn’t be a big shock – but it will be interesting to see how having a quarter of all MSPs feeling their way into the job will play out.

Anyway – back to the baseline numbers.  From the figures we’ve projected (and please treat this as you would any opinion poll, subject to the usual caveats, questioning of methodology, scepticism of the outcomes etc) we’d have Labour up 4 seats, the SNP down 1, the Conservatives up 1, the Lib Dems down 5, the Greens up 1 and Margo returning, so no change on the Independent figure.  Which, on the face of it is minimal change from 2007 – Labour winning back their position as Scotland’s largest party and a marked decline in the Lib Dem vote having an impact on their outcome in seats.  Note also that the Lib Dem representation in West and South is limited to 1 list seat, and they are wiped out in both Central and Glasgow on these figures – the first time in the devolution period that one of the “big four” would fail to return at least 1 MSP in each of the 8 electoral regions.

For outcomes, we’d likely be looking at minority government, since there would only be potential for two winning coalitions: Lab-SNP (96) and Lab-Con (68).  SNP-Con, totalling 64, might be workable given we need a Presiding Officer from somewhere, but it would be precarious.  And unless either the Conservatives (more likely, though I wouldn’t say odds on) or the Lib Dems voted for Alex Salmond in the First Ministerial vote, that minority government would be Labour run… though how long it would last is anybody’s guess.  Mine is that Labour wouldn’t get the same kind of dispensation from their opposition as the SNP got to run the last government since at Westminster they are overtly hostile to the two governing parties there. (Jeff addition:- One point to make here is that Labour seats exceed SNP + Greens together which could prove crucial as the post-election wrangling gets underway, though if I’d given that 7th Glasgow seat to the SNP, an SNP/Green coalition would be ahead by 1 seat, assuming (amongst other things) that Lib Dems and Tories would abstain).

In the coming weeks, we’ll try to sharpen up our analysis, look for the (massive!) holes in our local knowledge, perhaps change around a few seats and see how close we get to the final outcome.  In the meantime, knock yourselves out with working out who will form the next government!

#SP11 Region Watch – South Scotland

Apr 7

Posted by Malc in Elections, Holyrood | 48 Comments

Using the same poll as last time (STV poll published 28 March, to keep the second-half of this series consistent – the numbers are SNP & Lab – 35%, Con 14%, LD 8% and Green 5%) I’ve done the numbers for South Scotland which follow.  I make the net change Labour gaining one seat from the Lib Dems, but its not as straightforward as simply Labour taking one seat from them, as you’ll see from the outline of the region below.  Starting, as ever, with the constituencies, here we go:

Ayr – This has been Conservative held since a by-election in the early days of devolution.  With a notional Tory majority of over 4,000, I can’t see that changing this time around. Con hold (John Scott – returning)

Cumnock & Doon Valley – Labour held since… well, forever.  Cathy Jamieson departs to Westminster but leaves a healthy notional Labour majority of over 4,000 for her successor. Lab hold (Richard Leonard – new face)

Clydesdale – This is interesting, and the first of two fairly problematic seats.  A few reasons.  Karen Gillon is Labour’s incumbent MSP and has been since 1999.  Aileen Campbell was elected for the SNP on the South of Scotland list in 2007 as Holyrood’s youngest MSP, so she is a well-kent face too.  The notional majority is just 1,079.  And the Lib Dems managed to bungle their nomination papers for the constituency and thus have no candidate.  So we have some interesting things happening – not least 3,000-ish Lib Dem voters with no one to vote for.  What will they do?  Stay home?  Just vote on the list?  Try to vote tactically?  On the last point, I’ve been trying to work out who would be best for them to vote tactically for – and to my mind, it doesn’t really matter, since I can’t see them being close enough to win a second list seat.  So, that’s an interesting dynamic – and it will be worth watching for that reason.  It could lead to a surprise SNP gain, but I’d be more inclined to think the Lib Dem votes will split fairly evenly, and thus leave this as a Lab hold (Karen Gillon – returning)

Dumfriesshire – Here’s a problem too.  Similar to Eastwood, this is a notional Conservative seat now, with a majority of around 600.  But Labour’s Elaine Murray, as the incumbent, won’t be a pushover here.  I’m tempted to go with her, since she is a known quantity while, though the Conservative candidate is a local councillor, she’s probably not as well known across the constituency.  Consistent with Labour’s policy of allowing their candidates to stand on the list when their seat has been substantially re-configured, Elaine Murray is relatively safe, and will return whether winning here or not.  And whether she wins or not doesn’t make a difference to the overall outcome in South, since Labour & the Tories would simply switch a constituency for a regional seat.  I’ll lean to notional Con hold (Gillian Dykes – new face) which sadly means no place in Holyrood for the impressive Derek Brownlee.

East Lothian – I was mocked a few weeks ago for suggesting Iain Gray might have a bit of trouble returning to Holyrood.  It is unlikely, so this is probably a fairly safe Lab hold (Iain Gray -returning)

Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – A Conservative gain from the Lib Dems in 2007, if opinion polls keep going the way it is unlikely that they’ll win it back, given the notional 1500 majority.  Con hold (John Lamont – returning)

Galloway & West Dumfries – This is the Presiding Officer’s seat, and the PO himself is standing again (the first time this has happened in the devolution period) and back in the party fold.  On the face of it, that dynamic makes this seat a little interesting – and certainly gives it a unique condition – but the fact that the former PO is defending a notional 2,500 majority suggests no change here.  Con hold (Alex Fergusson – returning)

Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – The shift of this seat from Central to South actually means the SNP lose out on a seat in Central Scotland, and probably means they hold steady  here… which means a net reduction of one seat overall.  What effect will that have on the final outcome?  They defend a 1,300 majority on the new boundaries, and look likely to hold it. SNP hold (Willie Coffey – returning)

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – Lib Dems look away now.  Christine Grahame has had three attempts to beat the Lib Dems here and hasn’t managed yet.  However, this time conditions are most favourable – a nationally collapsing Lib Dem vote and new boundaries which firmly put this seat in the SNP column by over 1,200 votes.  Jeremy Purvis is a formidable candidate – and its win or bust for him since he’s not on the South Scotland list.  Unfortunately for him, it looks like bust, since I can’t see his personal vote overcoming the national slump and the 1,200 vote deficit.  What works in his favour is that he has beaten Christine Grahame a couple of times before… but this one might be a step too far. SNP (notional) hold (Christine Grahame – returning)

So the constituency outcomes are:

Conservative – 4
Labour – 3
SNP – 2

D’Hondt calculations based on above would lead to seat allocation of:

Seat 1: SNP (Aileen Campbell – returning [#2 on SNP list but Christine Grahame elected in constituency])
Seat 2: Labour (Elaine Murray – returning)
Seat 3: SNP (Adam Ingram – returning [#3 on SNP list])
Seat 4: Lib Dem (Jim Hume – returning)
Seat 5: Labour (Claudia Beamish – new face)
Seat 6: SNP (Joan McAlpine – new face [#4 on SNP list)
Seat 7: Labour (Graeme Pearson – new face)

(Seat 8 would be the SNP’s Aileen McLeod, but the party are 2,000 votes behind the last seat – Labour & the SNP continue to alternate further down the list).

Total seats are:

Labour – 3 + 3 = 6 (5)
SNP –2 + 3 = 5 (5)
 Conservative – 4 + 0 = 4 (4)
Lib Dem – 0 + 1 = 1 (2)

6 female to 10 male
11 returning to 5 new faces

Tactical Voting?
Opportunities are limited here.  As mentioned before, I don’t think the Lib Dems are in with a shot of a second seat, so tactical voting for them is moot.  And even if the split of seats among the other three parties is 3 each, or Lab 4-Con 3-SNP 2, or if the SNP were to lose Kilmarnock to Labour (thus 4-4-1) the overall outcome looks the same.  A list seat compensates each of them for the loss of a constituency.  Net overall outcome is the loss of a Lib Dem and the increase by one Labour MSP from the region.

Jeff does our last region (Glasgow) shortly, then we’ll pull all the results together and analyse what we have.  As we get closer to the election we’ll, ahem, revise and refine some of our predictions and see where if we can work out how Scotland will look on May 6.  Enjoy.