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A Power Game

Apr 22

Posted by Guest Blog in Elections | 5 Comments

Another guest post today, and this one comes from Dean Mackinnon-Thomson, a Conservative-leaning honours student who studies politics.  It considers the aftermath of May’s election with regards relations between Holyrood and local authorities.

It has become a central part of all four major (ED – sorry James) parties’ manifestoes. They are all united (some, admittedly belatedly) around the need to maintain a council tax freeze. Yet, given the real power surrounding the delivery of the council tax freeze rests not with Holyrood but local government; it has become a question of power.

The leaders of Scotland’s local authorities are to set themselves on a collision course with our Holyrood politicians; by pledging to defy the future council tax freeze. The Chief Executive of the Convention of Scottish Local Authority (COSLA) has singled out the council tax freeze as “unaffordable”. Rory Mair continued by adding “I don’t believe council leaders would sign up to another council tax freeze. They will defy it. A council tax freeze requires negotiation or legislation.”

Hang on! Does this mean that we voters are going to have to endure the unedifying spectacle of one set of politicians battling for the powers which currently lies with another? The short answer would seem ‘yes’, no matter who wins in May 5th.

It is prudent to be cautious however. As it must in fairness be admitted that while Holyrood MSPs do not set the council tax rates, nor does COSLA. Indeed many SNP led councils have already begun writing into the newspapers like the Herald arguing that “COSLA does not speak for us”.

But it has been features nonetheless of this election campaign where major party manifesto pledges have clashed directly with the supposed division of powers between Holyrood and local government.

Whether it be election pledges to merge social care with the NHS, or give state schools independence from local authority control; this is all building up to be a dramatic clash of power, control and political interest between politicians and local and national levels. It even cuts across party divides. No matter who succeeds in Holyrood 2011, to carry forward many of the pledges made will demand that Scotland revisits this division of power between the national and local levels. Lest the political parties be forced to drop large swathes of their ‘election pledges’ (one wonders what damage that would inflict on voter turnout?).

Should MSPs, faced with recalcitrant councils, seek to pull more authority and power around themselves at the national level? Or should local government have the freedom of independent action; in line with the principles of localism? These are uncomfortable questions which will cut across established party lines and allegiances at Holyrood after May 5th. The battle for control and power across so many areas of policy delivery might indeed shake the kaleidoscope of Scottish politics dramatically and in unforeseeable ways.

Finally, it may be worth mentioning that many of the folk in the former ‘No to Devo’ camp back in 1997 cried that devolution might result in a Scottish equivalent of the London pull – around Edinburgh. A process where more and more local issues become decided at national levels, where funds and attention drift away from local and rural communities for the Scottish capitol. Some in my family who croft already think this has happened following crofting reforms (of which there have beencountless since devo); they say ‘here is the evidence’.

All I know is this: no matter whom wins on May 5th, this long running question of localism versus centralisation of powers, decision-making will come to the fore at last. And about time too.

Totemic poll propels Chief Salmond onwards still

Apr 21

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Holyrood | 74 Comments

The announcement of the Ipsos-mori poll on Newsnight Scotland last night was great theatre. A rumour had been put out that the SNP had moved clear ahead of Labour, that was then cemented at 11pm as an 11 point constituency lead and 10 point regional lead and viewers were then left to speculate what the actual poll result was and at whose expense had that lead been won from. 

However, theatre all if this may remain as there is a good chance that this poll is an outlier. Certainly anything that predicts Iain Gray, Andy Kerr and Jackie Baillie to lose their seats, as this poll does, should be treated with caution. I personally don’t believe it can be that far from the truth though. The SNP has ran a near-perfect campaign, ruthlessly outplayed its opponents, been equal to any interview/er, beaten a truculent media into submission and the Labour campaign has somehow been a worse showing than 2007. 

So, that poll:

SNP – 45/42
Labour – 34/32 
Conservatives – 10/10 
Lib Dems – 9/8 
Greens – -/6 

This gives a seat breakdown (through my model) of (const/list):

SNP - 48/10 = 58
Labour - 23/26 = 49
Conservatives - 0/11 = 11
Lib Dems - 2/5 = 7
Greens - 0/3 = 3
Margo – 1

There is a lot that is remarkable in the above, the SNP only taking 10 regional seats, the easy passage of an independence referendum Bill tantalisingly close, no FPTP seats for the Tories (and Annabel out on her ear), Lib Dem seats down by over half (and Tavish out on his ear), the holding up of the Labour vote from 2007 and, not unrelated, the SNP charge coming at the expense of Tory and Lib Dem voters who appear to be voting tactically for Salmond or tactically against Labour winning.

Note also that the Greens have held up well on 6% despite the methodology in this Ipsos-MORI poll really counting against them (lumped in with others, no prompt for individual party etc). (Is that it James? You might have to run it past me again). The main reason that the Greens only get 3 seats from this poll is because Labour is just too dominant in hoovering up the seats that the SNP is leaving behind. Labour win 3 regional spots in Glasgow for goodness sake and the 4 they take in MS&F/Lothians are certainly the reasons that the Greens miss out there (missing out on a 2nd spot in Lothians that is, Alison Johnstone will get in if this poll is replicated in May).

Anyway, I decided it’s not worth going to town over who wins where and what seat might fall there (the closest contested seat is Cunninghame South, SNP gain over Labour by 165 votes).

For a start, the more distance between SNP and Labour the less interesting/exciting the number crunching becomes, secondly because there is a lot of scepticism as to the veracity of this poll and thirdly, the race between Tories, Lib Dems and Greens to be the party that can work with, or even within, the Government is becoming more intriguing. 

So, I thought instead I would go back to the detail of the YouGov poll from Sunday and see if anything could be extrapolated in conjunction with this more outlandish Ipsos Mori poll.

From YouGov we can see that:
– Lib Dem constituency voters are breaking for the Conservatives on the second vote, unsurprisingly, and not out of step with 2007.
– Conservative voters are the most loyal set of voters, 90% of them staying with the Tories in the list vote. (It is interesting to note that reciprocation with the Lib Dems is not realised as only 2% of Tory voters break for the Lib Dems, half that of the 4% that break for the SNP. There are no instances of 1st vote Tory, 2nd vote Green.)
– 0% of Labour constituency voters are voting SSP or Solidarity in the list vote. For the SNP, this figure is a not inconsiderable 7%.
– The Greens are getting more success from Labour voters than SNP ones, picking up 6% of Labour constituency voters for the second vote and 4% from the SNP.

So what does this mean? Well, don’t be surprised to see a Socialist MSP to pop up in a region or two. Also, I can see the Tory and Lib Dem votes holding flat, as they have done over the past few weeks now, but the Greens on 6% in this poll is heartening and the positive media they have received and distinctive manifesto could give them scope to push their share of the vote higher, either from disillusioned Labour voters or SNP voters who now believe they can afford to go Green, either tactically or through a calculated splitting of the vote.

Pushing the Green share of the vote up to 8% gives them 7 MSPs, 2 from the Tories and 2 from Labour. How can tactical voting not be an attractive proposition under those circumstances?

And, for the SNP, a warning and a boost. The warning is that their second vote is still at risk of being amongst the flakiest with voters but the good news is that the tipping point for winning numerous FPTP seats may well have been reached and the regional vote will be less of a factor.

So what happens now? Labour have two options, to attack or inspire and there is little doubt that they will decide the former is more likely to work. Independence may well be an issue in this election after all as the unionist parties warning voters that a too-popular SNP may indirectly deliver independence could work to dampen down the SNP surge. I suspect that this attack will not work as it will only free up voters to indulge in voting for independents and ‘minor parties’, safe in the knowledge that power is out of Iain Gray’s reach.

It still looks possible that the independence activist’s dream, referendum-delivering coalition of SNP+Green+SSP+Margo may yet be greater than 65 MSPs.

UPDATE:

By request, I’ve included some of the more surprising seats that the SNP is projected to take, strictly on the back of this poll (I know Malc will be rolling his eyes at this inclusion so I’ll just say remember to take a pinch of salt before reading on….)

Airdrie & Shotts (Karen Whitefield) – SNP maj 2,200
Clackmanannshire & Dunblane (Richard Simpson) – SNP maj 3,945
Clydesdale (Karen Gillon) – SNP maj 1,797
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth (Cathy Craigie) – SNP maj 983
Cunninghame South (Irene Oldfather) – SNP maj 165
Dumbarton (Jackie Baillie) – SNP maj 1,332
East Kilbride (Andy Kerr) – SNP maj 1,304
East Lothian (Iain Gray) – SNP maj 396
Edinburgh Central (Sarah Boyack (on the list)) – SNP maj 269
Edinburgh North & Leith (Malcolm Chisholm) – SNP maj 232
Glasgow Cathcart (Charlie Gordon) – SNP maj 523
Glasgow Kelvin (Pauline McNeill) – SNP maj 916
Midlothian North & Musselburgh () – SNP maj 1,467
Stirling () – SNP maj 2,718

An independent mind

Apr 21

Posted by Guest Blog in Elections, Holyrood | 7 Comments

Margo MacDonald, Independent candidate for the Lothians (and Independent MSP for the last 8 years) gives us a guest post today, setting out her views on some of the key policies being debated in this election campaign and her priorities should she be re-elected in May.

At a Hustings meeting in Edinburgh, candidates were asked what they considered to be the most important feature of the Election. My answer was probably not what most members of the audience expected, but after a couple of explanatory sentences, quite a few heads were nodding in agreement.

I said what I most wanted to see was the back of this futile, phoney parade of misleading spin disguised as party manifestos. I accused the “big four” of issuing near fraudulent prospectuses of their programmes for government. None of the supposed leaders of public opinion had the courage to level with voters and admit the Scottish Parliament’s impotence in effecting fundamental change. Therefore, when the piper has to be paid, or paid-off, after the election, by whoever wins, the electors will lose any lingering respect and trust in the forked-tongued politicians who sold them a pup.

In the week or so since that hustings, I’ve detected a growing cynicism on the part of voters that the promises of Council Tax being frozen for up to five years, while the money sent from Westminster for Holyrood to dole out to local councils, the NHS etc will be cut by  £1.3 billion from the current year’s block grant, leading to a total cut of  £4.8 billion in 2015. In response so far, the ”big four” have continued to promise programmes and projects without even trying to re-prioritise the need for  big ticket projects like the proposed Forth Bridge.

Labour and Tory spokespersons continue to insist that one all-Scotland police service will be cheaper than the present 8 forces. Even if the most important criterion of all, whether such a plan would continue the “policing by consent”  ethos on which our civil order rests, it’s more than doubtful that the promised savings in cost can be realised. Is it too much to hope that both parties, plus the SNP, will say in advance of May 5th whether their second preference would be for a reduction to two, or three, forces? To their credit, the Lib Dems will have nothing to do with the idea of a single force, even if it did appear to be the cheapest option. They value our civil liberties more.

The values we attach to our public services should play a large part in the parliamentary and public debates that will follow the election. The debate on how much we value the purity of no tuition fees from P1 to First Class Honours has so far been confined to the amount an individual student might pay for tuition, and when. We haven’t even begun to look at the delivery mechanism for degrees. Are there changes that could be made to the number of institutions offering by and large the same degrees?

As an Independent, if Lothian voters re-elect me, I’ll support policies and initiatives most likely to keep people in work, to keep them healthy and to provide the means or the guidance for them to access the highest standards possible in life-long learning.

I’ve got a few ideas of my own I’ll pitch in too. Since the very concept of retirement is changing due to the flexible end point to a working life, I’d like to see Parliament host a Pensioners’ Day  along the lines of Business in Parliament. Also, I’ll be looking for support across the parties for an investigation into scandalously high PPP profits. I’ll still be banging the drum for every primary school pupil to have a time for some physical activity every day…the two hours PE a week would be great if it were feasible, but for several reasons is the wrong way to go about producing a fitter, more active nation. And I’ll have another shot at an Assisted Dying Bill.

An election in Wales? Do you mean the referendum?

Apr 20

Posted by Guest Blog in Elections | 11 Comments

In our latest guest post, our “Welsh correspondent” Marcus Warner gives us his view on the election media game in Wales – and how it differs markedly from what we see in Scotland.  He has a Wales-specific election blog up and running for the next 2 weeks – somewhere you should stop by if you have an interest in the Welsh election as well.

Too many of us who follow politics seem to have a love/hate relationship (often the case with symbiotic relationships) with the media. We continually bemoan the standard of reporting; the gossip>policy axis; the media bubble outrage and the downright inaccurate bias that we often see. But in one fell swoop we can fall right behind a media outlet who supports our cause or even scores a hit on our opponents.

Unfortunately in Wales we have none of those things happening. Wales must be one of the few democratic countries with such a media deficit (perhaps a bit of hyperbole but stay with me). We are about the only country that on the day we hold a referendum on the future Governance of our country we are treated to wall-to-wall coverage of the Barnsley by-election (and not even a competitive one at that). Question Time in Newport – a few months before a referendum and election in Wales and a question about who John Terry was shagging? Yes, exactly what we need.

In a fluid and less political world, old certainties can appear to be melting away. However, with the time a voter might spend considering whom to vote for shrinking, the media plays an ever more vital role. In Wales we are being let down democratically by our media landscape. Those that do try – BBC Wales, The Western Mail, S4C and a few of the regional papers are not really the problem. However, it is not talking them down to say that most welsh people don’t watch or read those outlets.

I look on with very green eyes at the situation in Scotland. While not perfect I am sure, and with my limited knowledge the source of this view, at least the Scottish media tell the story through Scottish eyes. You have Scottish newspapers that matter and matter about devolved politics. Wales’ media lens is focused on London, so much so that Unionist parties don’t bother to even have a debate on Welsh issues. Labour’s poll rating in Wales is very high, but their central message is that voting for them will ‘send a message to David Cameron and Nick Clegg’. After 12 years in power and with a law making £16billion a year budget, is that the best we can do?

The simple fact is that the lack of media clout means that the Welsh General Election has been relegated to a Westminster mid-term and a news item on the UK news just before the squirrel who can water ski –“And finally…”.

Many commentators have bemoaned the lack of original ideas in all four parties manifestos – or perhaps that should be five, with the Greens in Wales poised for a potential gain in South Wales Central. I am biased – but I would say Plaid’s ‘Build for Wales’ is a radical way of not using PFI in straightened economic times. But I believe this is also the effect of having so very little media scrutiny that plays with the voters. The simple fact is that the Welsh public consume London media, it would take an earthquake in Wales for it to really register in that sphere, therefore they carry unaware of the Welsh nature of this election.

The news that the Scottish Sun is coming out for Salmond has left me buzzing from over here – firstly, because I want Scotland to vote SNP in their droves; but secondly because I can only begin to imagine how great it would be for something like to get national media coverage and reach into the living rooms of the voters that decide elections.

No doubt commenters will perhaps shoot me down (I do plead ignorance) about how bad the Scottish media is and how it also has a London focus. However, the Western Mail, the only ‘national’ newspaper in Wales, is read by less than 30,000 people and is very M4 corridor (probably Cardiff) centric. Viewers/listeners of the BBC will be pummelled about the AV referendum, while we will get the odd news item gazing from London at us poor, public sector Celts.

I will finish with an anecdote. My sister’s son was having a first birthday party for her son.  My sister’s stepfather approached me after introduction saying “So you are into politics aren’t you? What do you think about this vote we are having in May?” Just as I was about to answer about the Welsh General Election, he says that “I think any change to the voting system is a good thing, so I am going to vote for AV…” (and to be fair continued in an informed manner), I politely said “I will vote Yes, although I prefer PR, the most important vote is the Welsh General Election…” He looked at me puzzled as if he had no idea what I was on about.

With the Welsh Fourth Estate in such a state, count your Scottish chickens lucky.

Greens launch manifesto

Apr 19

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Parties | 20 Comments

The Greens have launched their manifesto today, competing manfully for media space alongside the other big #sp11 news today – that of the Sun’s backing for the SNP. It is a shame to see the launch as the 5th biggest story in Scotland today (The Sun/SNP endorsement is 2nd). Did the Nats deliberately stymie the Green launch by having both announcements on the same day? Let’s be honest, touché if so. All’s fair in love, war and election campaigns.

So, what are we being offered from the Greens then? Well, quite a lot actually:

– a Land Value Tax (as previously discussed several times on this blog so no need to rehash)
– scrap the additional Forth Road Bridge and Aberdeen bypass, saving £1.8bn for public spending
– 0.5p added to the Scottish Variable Rate from 2013, raising £200m+ a year
– A stronger budget focus on transport, affordable housing, free education and an insulation programme
– Commitment to large scale ecosystem restoration projects

It is the detail of the tartan tax policy that has really floated by wave turbine though. Someone earning £20k a year will pay £1.20/week more in income tax, someone earning £45k a year will pay £3.60/week more. Potentially provocative, yes, but also proactive and progressive. There can be no easy solutions when you’re budget is set to be slashed by 12.5%, even if other parties seem to think there is.

No-one wants to pay more tax, particularly when, as before, there is no figure applied to that warning and the imagination is free to picture cash slipping away. However, we now have a figure to focus on and £1.20 – £3.60 per week is about the equivalent of a pint. Would you buy a pint for the unemployed? For the poverty-stricken? For the students? For the senior citizens? The upsides arguably indirectly extend to lower crime, better health and higher education standards too. I don’t know how we can shirk our duty not to do this.

We are after all already missing important opportunities. Tesco has just announced multi-billion quarterly profits (the shopping giant makes £10m profit a day) but the Scottish Parliament (Lab/LD/Con) still wimped out of making such large businesses contribute a little bit more to the tax intake. The debate over tuition fees has been miserably disingenuous; the average fees in England are not at around £8,700 but Scottish parties are still claiming that the funding shortfall will be £90m a year (a figure based on average English fees at ~£7,000).

We aren’t really any further forward with properly insulating our homes either, an investment that would save families money through power bills which, in turn, frees up money for the family purse and Council Tax rises etc. The Greens had a substantial budget proposal on the table a couple of years ago but politics got in the way once again and the SNP rebuffed the offer. Claim and counter-claim ensued but that doesn’t change the fact that it would take 200 years to insulate the nation. Not good enough. How can we pass up win-win-win opportunities like this? There must be a way, a political will to get this done. Indeed, the big issue of this election so far is the Council Tax freeze but what would save people more money, better insulation or no rises in Council Tax? Worth exploring I reckon.

The use of the SvR is the big one for me though and, those who can pay, paying a bit more those who can’t. It’s not a big sacrifice to make and it starts way off in 2013 (assuming the coalition follows through with its intention of more, deeper cuts). I am glad that one of the political parties had the guts to put this revenue-raising option to the people, it is a policy that goes right to the heart of the kind of nation that I certainly want Scotland to be more like so let’s see how Scots take to it.

Oh, and the Greens are in favour of independence too.