Work as if you live in the early days of a

Better Nation

Archive for category Elections

What a difference 4 years make…

May 4

Posted by Malc in Elections, Media | 11 Comments

Remember this?

That rather crude front page was four years ago, and while Scotland’s (ahem) more quality papers (and also, the Daily Record) didn’t go quite as far as the Sun in their SNP scaremongering, the message was pretty much the same as it always had been: “We don’t like the SNP, we don’t like independence, we don’t think you should support the SNP or independence”.  Okay, so I’ve probably phrased that slightly less, what, filled with rhetoric, than they did – but you get the idea.  On the SNP’s side they were not.

Fast forward to 2011, and the media picture has changed considerably.  While most of the nation’s press spent the four years of SNP government attacking them, many have come out in favour of a second SNP term.  Okay, in some cases that support is qualified – at best – but its a different media landscape for the SNP, and one which they are not used to.  In 2007, they had the bunker mentality, the “world’s-media-is-against-us” thinking, just as they had for generations before.  But today they have the support of much of Scotland’s printed press.

The Sun came out for the SNP several weeks ago:

 

 

 

 

 

The Scotsman offers its qualified support to the SNP in today’s editorial, though they want Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives there to keep Alex Salmond on the straight and narrow.  This seems as big a Road to Damascus moment as, well… the original Road to Damascus moment.  Guess that’s why we use that metaphor.  The Herald too, provides support for the SNP in its editorial, though elsewhere it is more circumspect about the campaign and the promises of each of the parties.  The Sundays have led where their sister papers followed, with the Scotland on Sunday citing Labour’s “appallingly negative” campaign as part of the reason why they see Salmond and the SNP as better for Scotland.  Meanwhile, the Daily Record focuses solely on the apparent 50% of the electorate who remain undecided and tells them they should vote for Labour.

I’ve already noted my frustrations with the campaign – and several of my friends and colleagues have mentioned that they too feel that the lengthy six-week campaign has failed to inspire.  Last night’s TV debate, while better than what went before, did nothing to instil any confidence in the leaders’ ability to change the record.  Tavish Scott got his “police” message in up top, and then again later in the debate.  Annabel got her “common sense” and “I’ll hold them to account” point in.  Salmond was his statesmanlike self, though unnerved by a couple of questioners and Iain Gray was better than he had been… until asked about his Subway encounter, when the Angry Man took over and his comment about “pointless conversations” undid anything good he had done to that point.  All in all, the debate itself wasn’t exactly an edifying spectacle.

So where does that leave us?  Well, polls open in around 20 hours.  If the latest STV poll is to be believed, the SNP are headed for a landslide, winning 61 of the 129 seats – not quite a majority, but pretty damn close.  Labour are to slump to 33 (down SIXTEEN from 2007) with the Tories on 18 (up 1) the Lib Dems on 9 (down 7) and the Greens close behind on 8 (up 6).  I’m never convinced when polls show such wide margins – I think it’ll be a bit closer – but if the SNP’s vote comes out and Labour’s collapses as predicted, I’ll be eating humble pie.

I’ll get my finalised predictions (based both on numbers and intuition) out before polls close tomorrow, and I think Jeff and Kate are planning the same – then you can giggle at how wrong we are.  But just remember, the only poll that matters….

Pick an Alex Salmond. Any Alex Salmond.

May 1

Posted by James in Elections, Holyrood | 42 Comments

Motorway Alex or Renewables AlexIs Alex Salmond a progressive or a conservative? Has he run a centre-left administration or a centre-right one? The question still gets asked because there is evidence pointing in both directions. This election, if the polls are in the right, gives Scotland a chance to get either version. But voting SNP on the list would, curiously, be an abstention on that crucial question.

His instincts on international affairs are certainly more left than Labour’s or the Lib Dems. The SNP was clearly opposed to the Iraq war, and there has been no sign of a wobble over Trident either. But these are issues that aren’t decided at Holyrood, so remain tangential at best to this election.

On tax, despite the massive slew of propaganda from the SNP, he’s clearly a natural conservative. Council Tax is regressive, and freezing it saves the richest the most. An effective tax cut, it also hurts the poorest most, the people most likely to rely on public services. The freeze is funded, the SNP say – which means £70m was given with one hand while £654m was taken away with the other.

The £1.3bn of cuts which John Swinney handed on in his last budget also show the priorities pretty clearly, with housing, education and public transport all put under pressure to allow a continued road-building programme.

This might be mere electoralism, an effort not to scare the horses again with a Penny for Scotland, even though the need for additional revenue now is much greater than it was in 1999. But I suspect it’s where his heart lies – as is the desire to cut corporation tax and follow at least some parts of the Irish model, including a substantial programme of speculative borrowing if the Calman powers arrive.

On the environment, the 100% renewable pledge looks good, until you see that for the SNP it also means retaining all the climate-busting generating capacity for sale. I’d agree there’s a massive economic opportunity that comes with a shift to renewables, but that seems the only point of green energy for the SNP: otherwise they wouldn’t have rammed a new coal plant into the National Planning Framework.

And would an SNP administration have secured the backing of so many turbo-capitalists and right-wing newspapers if it were even vaguely left? For every jailed socialist pleading to be allowed to vote for the SNP there are five tax-cutting businessmen hailing the Salmond record. Not to mention the fondness between Salmond and the egregious wingnut birther and eviction specialist Donald Trump.

But the SNP is, contrary to popular opinion, more than just Alex Salmond. There are many genuine progressives in the party, not many perhaps amongst the Ministerial team, but there are plenty in and around the party who see the opportunities independence could bring for a genuinely fairer Scotland, with a more redistributive tax settlement and priority given to essential services, not 1960s style vanity infrastructure projects. It’s what Chris Harvie was trying to get at last week, despite his four wasted years as a loyal button-pusher. It’s where the outriders for a better nationalism like Pat Kane and Bella Caledonia come in.

Some of the polls suggest that the SNP plus the Greens would make 65+, with the usual media frothing about independence as if it’s the only issue our politics should be about. But all the polls also indicate that the SNP plus the Tories would make 65+, enough for a continuation of the unofficial alliance, especially over budget matters, which has set the tone since 2007.

No other party has voted with the SNP on every single budget vote, and no party did so more enthusiastically than the Tories earlier this year when the cuts had to be passed on. I like Derek Brownlee personally, and I hope the predictions that he will lose his own seat are wrong, but he has been John’s loyal little helper not just to annoy their mutual enemy, but also because this is a genuine meeting of minds.

The Tories know what holding the balance would bring them – especially if they come back as the only way (other than with Labour support) that Bruce Crawford can make a majority with a single party. That scenario will put the Tory thumb on the SNP scales, and I fear we will see five years of a deepening squeeze on public services, five more years where the car remains king, and where the dash continues for the last, dirtiest, most unsafe oil in Scottish waters.

There is another possible outcome – a strong enough Green vote to push the SNP towards their more progressive instincts and yes, to vote against them where they seek to put big business ahead of the people or Scotland’s environment. The polls show we could be heading that way. But make no mistake, the only plausible alternative to a Tory-tinged SNP government right now looks like a good result for the only out-and-out progressive party in the last Parliament: a substantial Green block at Holyrood.

Election round up: Never mind the parties, what about their voters?

Apr 30

Posted by The Burd in Elections, Parties | 12 Comments

How do you round up when there’s nothing to round up?  I mean, they might as well not have bothered this week.

It’s beginning to feel like Groundhog Day: every morning the meeja are summoned to some inane photo opportunity in some poor unsuspecting town; the respective machines reel off constant announcements and statements (go visit the Steamie to see how relentless they are); news programmes dutifully report the day’s headlines and if they’re really lucky, a gaffe.  And then everyone goes leafleting, canvassing, to hustings and meetings and then they do it all again the next day.  Yep, so far, so dull.

What happened this week?  More polls showed a super soaraway lead for the SNP;  a relaunch for Labour put Salmond, the SNP and independence firmly in its sights;  Annabel presented a ridiculous caricature of herself, if this is possible, in a hairnet eating teacakes;  Iain Gray failed to fight Salmond in the Asda aisles;  and Hadrians wall was breached as UK leaders and big hitters headed north to shore up the faltering Labour and Lib Dem campaigns, and Mr and Mrs Salmond went to London to see the Queen and that wedding;  shock, horror there was a wumman in charge of the country and the sky didn’t fall in.

Dear voter, hang tight, the end is in sight. Here’s hoping for a rip-roaring grand finale with two leaders’ debates this Sunday on the BBC and then on Tuesday at STV.  Please inspire us with a gripping toe-to-toe discourse on the key policies and issues.

So that’s the parties;  what about the voters?  Who is actually voting for whom in this election and what does that say about, well, anything?

Using the IPSOS-Mori poll because it has the most detail in terms of voter disaggregation, there are few surprising variations on what we might expect.

If you intend to vote SNP on 5 May, you are most likely to be male, aged 35 -54, working full time, born in Scotland and living in a rural area, in the least deprived communities.  However, the SNP can also expect a considerable vote from pensioners, though amongst younger age groups, its vote is pretty evenly split between those having children and those not.

Given that Labour and the SNP are fighting it out for the centre ground, they might also be tussling over the same voters?  Actually, no.  Labour voters are more likely to be female, under 35, working part time, living with children in a council or housing association house in the most deprived areas in cities or towns.  Interestingly, their voters are just as likely to come from other parts of the UK or indeed, beyond, as from Scotland.

What does this tell us?  That Labour is holding onto its traditional voter ground, is resonating with the “squeezed middle” but needs to do more to secure the aspirational vote.  It is clear that this vote still sits largely with the SNP.  And despite big efforts, the SNP is still toiling to appeal to women and urban voters.  This matters: if the SNP’s projected lead turns into seats, expect Scotland to turn largely yellow all across the North and South of Scotland, but the central belt will stay stubbornly red.  One other interesting demographic is how few people (according to this poll but probably backed up by experience) born outwith Scotland intend to vote SNP:  the party’s civic nationalist messages do not appear to be getting through.

Perhaps the most significant development is the switch of the all-important pensioner vote, which has been mirrored in the polls throughout this election and which I blogged on previously.  Given older people’s propensity to actually go and vote, these are the voters likely to have a huge bearing on the overall result.  And the shift would appear to be just reward for the SNP Government’s overt woo-ing with a range of pensioner-friendly policies.

What of the other parties?  Conservative voters are most likely to be female, retired, without children, born elsewhere in the UK and living in the most affluent areas in rural communities.  Little surprise there then, but note that their main challengers for this vote are the SNP (who are winning it hands down).

The Lib Dems’ vote is most likely to be younger (25 -34), have no children, own their home, and again live in the most affluent areas of rural communities.

Do you see the pattern?  It seems to support the headline findings which show that the SNP is taking votes from both these parties.  And it also shows the danger of believing the national polls in terms of how big the SNP’s lead over Labour actually is.  Unless and until the SNP is winning votes from Labour in urban constituencies, few seats in the central belt will change hands.

Effectively, the SNP is in the lead because it is taking votes away from the Tories and Lib Dems in largely rural seats, which is also supported by IPSOS-Mori’s findings on the regional vote.  These suggest more Tory and Lib Dem constituency voters intend to vote SNP on the list vote than for Labour.

It all points to two things.  First, that we are likely to have a big urban-rural divide in terms of election outcome.  How that will play out in Holyrood and government remains to be seen.  Secondly, Labour has indeed got its campaign strategy wrong.  Its lagging behind the SNP has less to do with losing the national battle (though this has undoubtedly had an impact), and more to do with mistaking this election – as veteran political journalist Angus McLeod deftly pointed out – as a core vote one, when it has actually been a switcher election.

Finally, what of the Scottish Greens?  Well, the party enjoys pretty even support across all the demographics, though its vote is more likely to be urban, living in the least deprived areas and most likely to have been born outwith the UK.  Everything else is pretty marginal: while having a universal appeal across age groups, gender and employment status might suit the egalitarian spirit of the Greens and their need to pick up regional votes from all types of voters, one wonders what might happen if it targeted more heavily towards particular groups and communities?

Tags: , , , , , ,

The Scottish Political Archive needs you (well, your help at any rate)

Apr 27

Posted by Malc in Elections | Comments off

I wrote in November alerting readers to the Scottish Political Archive at the University of Stirling.  If you can’t be bother going looking at that link, don’t worry – I’m going to say most of the same stuff again here!  But it is timely – as you will see in a moment.

Anyway, once again, I’m trying to advertise it.  It’s kind of a service for political junkies (the kind of people who, say, read political blogs…) to show the evolution of Scottish politics through media, photography and campaigning over the last 60 or 70 years.  So use it – go and have a look through some of the photographs, look for your favourite politicians, keep an eye out on Facebook for updates to the site as well.

You can see the photographs on Flickr here or “like” the Scottish Political Archive on Facebook here (Facebook login required).  Alternatively, the Scottish Political Archive’s photo blog is here, which carries the same material in a slightly different format.

But I’m also looking for some material – but its not anything you wouldn’t perhaps already be doing.

The project that the Scottish Political Archive is currently working on is, rather unsurprisingly, the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election.  As you can see from their Flickr album, they already have plenty of material.

What they are looking for is photographs of politicians at campaign stops or conferences (and of field posters, A-boards, polling stations on election day, the count itself… you get the idea) and election literature (leaflets, posters, newspapers, election addresses etc).  I suspect most activists are holding onto this kind of stuff, or taking photos to share on Facebook or Twitter, or other social networking sites… if so, they’d like you to get in touch!

The Scottish Political Archive would be delighted to take it, scan it, archive it online – and return it to you (unless you want rid of it!).  Alternatively, they are keen to take digital versions of stuff – so if you have something which you can easily scan, or photographs you wouldn’t mind archived, you can email them at scottishpoliticalarchive@stir.ac.uk.  If you have stuff you want to post to them, the address for that would be Scottish Political Archive, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA.

You can probably tell from the Flickr pages that I’ve been giving them every election-related note that has come through my door in Edinburgh Central.  I’ve also gotten parents (and parents-in-law) to send on stuff from both Moray and Aberdeenshire East, not to mention my Gran (in Stirling) and a friend in Cunninghame South doing the same.

Anyway, if you can help, please do.  After the election is fine – since activists presumably don’t have a lot of time on their hands at the moment – but like I say, if you have stuff, they’d be delighted to hear from you.  Just let them know where the picture is from, a rough date and they can do the rest.

Thanks again all – and enjoy the old photographs of some of your favourite politicians looking slightly different from their 2011 selves!

#SP11 – Apparently, we can’t handle the truth

Apr 27

Posted by Jeff in Economy, Elections, Holyrood | 41 Comments

The recent furore regarding superinjunctions has largely passed me by, though that hasn’t stopped me dipping into Twitter to find out (within seconds) who the famous names involved are. Personally, I don’t think the rich and the powerful should have access to a special law because they can afford the legal costs and while tabloids are a despicable scourge on UK society, famous people can’t expect to have it both ways.

Actors and football stars are happy to take the inflated salaries, the fame that drops onto their laps at an early age but not happy to have their private lives open to scrutiny. They want the goodies from being famous with none of the downside. Well that’s fine, but can we have our money back please?

I don’t think it’s too far a mental leap to suggest that politicians too have recently opted for a form of superinjuction, almost literally in the case of Alex Salmond regarding LIT. It is too early to say for sure what this election campaign will be rememered for but don’t be surprised if the legacy is the financial truth of the coming five years being shielded from the public, where the supposed ‘Hollywood for ugly people’ politicians wanted the fame and fortune without bothering to be open and transparent with us little people.

The funding of Higher Education is a classic example and I’m amazed, not to mention disappointed, that the SNP, Labour and Lib Dems haven’t been pushed on this much harder:

If fees in England are to settle at an average of £7,000, then (ignoring inflation), the funding gap in Scotland would be £97m. This is the figure that I have seen the SNP and Labour cling onto over the past few weeks. 

If fees in England settled at an average of £7,500 and inflation was taken into account then the funding gap would be around £202m. 

We now know that average fees in England will be closer to £8,678 and the funding gap therefore may well be £300m+ a year. So that’s easily a £1bn shortfall in the next parliamentary term that’s going largely undiscussed, and this is before Council Tax freezes, extra NHS spending, building more prisons, keeping police local and the whittling away of savings from (unspent) bridge money are taken into account. 

Parties can talk about these areas being priorities for future budgets but if every upside needs a downside, if every credit needs a debit, then surely we deserve to know what the priorities are for what will be cut and when? Put another way, whose necks are on the chopping block for each of the parties? Noone likes hearing such news but we deserve to know, don’t we?

Seemingly not. Like the grinning actor and the celebrating footballer hiding a barrelload of sins beneath that shiny veneer, aided and abetted by a handy superinjunction, it is what our party manifestoes don’t say that speaks volumes.

Don’t believe me? Just ask the Centre for Public Policy for Regions that has released a paper on manifesto costings. Some choice lines include:


In many pages on these Manifestos there is a plethora of seeming commitments and
pledges. However, when the current funding proposals are broken down these are
often found to have no (increased) funding attached to them. In some case this
funding is, yet again, expected to arise from generic efficiency savings. The true
worth of such commitments must therefore be called into question in many cases.

As we have previously reported, the 2011-12 budget was already tight with spending
being delayed and all spare funding being fully allocated. There is no reserve in the
event costs rise faster than projected or savings and revenues fail to be generated to
the level of in the timescale proposed.

Overall, serious questions have to be asked of all of the four main Parties as to
whether what they have outlined in their Manifestos is sufficient to meet the
challenges facing them in terms of real terms cuts to their budgets over the next four
years. Voters are entitled to be highly sceptical as to whether what they are being offered in
the Manifesto’s is actually what will happen, rather than a pale imitation of the
difficult choices that await, post-election. In fact, rather than playing a critical role in determining
how difficult future budget choices are to be made, voters are being sidelined.

Double digit cuts to budgets over the coming years means that we either have to tax more or spend less just to stand still, that’s the basic truth of 2011-16. So, if there was any justice, this election would really be a straight fight between the revenue-raising Greens and the happy-to-cut-back Tories. 

On current evidence, the SNP will only fleetingly enjoy this election win (if it comes to pass), opposition parties look set to have plenty of ammunition to hold the Government and its mandate to account over the coming years. Maybe being upfront, rather than adopting the superinjunction ethos, is the way to go after all.