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What have we learned from the past 24 hours?

May 6

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Holyrood | 91 Comments

There will be an independence referendum. Naysayers and legal boffins may claim that such considerations are outside the scope of the Scottish Parliament but I remain of the belief that where there is a will there is a way and anyone standing in the way of an SNP majority getting the referendum that it was in its manifesto will be knocked out of the way sooner or later. The referendum will apparently be during the second half of this parliamentary term but you’ll no doubt start to feel the gathering storm over the next few days as Cameron, Clegg and Miliband realise the enormity of what is ahead of them to convince Scotland to stay a part of the union. Forget current polls, as we should have done for much of this past four years, the independence bandwagon is coming to town and it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

Labour needs a new leader. For whatever reason, Iain Gray messed this election big time and cannot be rewarded with continuing in his post. In truth, his election victory speech did not sound like a man who was looking forward to challenging Salmond for another five years so a replacement won’t have to ‘oust’ the current incumbent. Jackie Baillie? Ken McIntosh? John Park? Hugh Henry? Sarah Boyack? The gubbing that Labour has faced does not leave them short of candidates for the job. I’d be happy with anyone but Ms Baillie in the post from the above arbitrary shortlist and I’d be confident that they’d succeed where Iain Gray failed, realising that they don’t have to be angry, indignant and negative to win elections in Scotland.

The Tories have steadied the ship, finally. Given the context of this election, the beginning of cuts that are emanating from a Tory-led coalition, Annabel Goldie has steered her party to a decent result that sets them up well for 2016. Osborne’s plan, for all that lefties including myself don’t like it, is working and by the time the next election comes around the Tories may enjoy a swell in support so great that it even crosses the border. With strong 2nd place and 3rd place showings this year, the Conservatives, whoever leads them, have put themselves in position to be a real force in domestic Scottish politics for the first time in decades.

The Greens are stuck in the mud. I’m aghast that the Greens have fared so badly, not even moving on from the 2 MSPs that they currently have if my predictions are correct. The party ran a slick campaign, they had an alternative, convincing manifesto, they had students seemingly onside and their main rivals, the Lib Dems, went into freefall. The election was in the end about SNP vs Labour so there simply wasn’t enough people really considering voting for what sadly remains Scotland’s fifth party. At least they have improved their gender balance.

The Lib Dems have a mountain to climb. The number of lost deposits that the Lib Dems suffered was a financial blow but it is the psychological and practical impact that will hurt the most. How do they go about winning seats from 4th in 2016? How do they retake Edinburgh Southern from 3rd? At the root of their problems is Westminster of course. How can the Lib Dems build the trust of the Scottish people while partaking in a coalition with the Tories? It’s quite simple, if you agree with Cameron’s approach you vote Tory, if you don’t then you vote Labour or SNP.

A Green/Lib Dem merger? There is probably a strong argument for the Greens and Lib Dems to merge as they cannot continue to splinter their vote as they have done in this election. With such a similar platform, they are really no different to the Socialists who can’t get it together and stand as a united front. The Greens were quite right to be annoyed that Lib Dems were claiming to be the only party standing on a platform of local policing but, in truth, they should have been supporting them rather than attacking them. A political joint venture or merger rather than acquisition could be pragmatic politics for two parties that believe in localism and are taking arguably the strongest stances on the fight against Climate Change. Are their shared issues too important to be divided over? I make it that between them they’d have an extra 4 MSPs in total if they had stood on a shared platform. Worth thinking about….

Politicians who chart their own path get rewarded at the ballot box. Malcolm Chisholm stood up for his beliefs over minimum pricing and is the last MSP standing in Edinburgh while Alex Fergusson has been his own man as Presiding Officer and bucked the otherwise overwhelming and unforgiving SNP swing. If a lesson can be learned from this past four years where MSPs loyally followed the party whip it is this – be your own person.

Scotland’s renewables revolution will continue. One of the reasons the Greens did so badly is arguably because the SNP manifesto was so, well, green. 100% renewable electrical power by 2020 is an awesome aim and regardless of how difficult or even achievable it will be, it is difficult for the Greens to exceed such an aim. It’s sad that Patrick Harvie does not lead a bigger bloc of MSPs but Scotland’s green credentials are, to a large extent, well and truly on track.

Parties trump personalities. The accuracy with which it was possible to predict which seats the SNP were and were not going to win suggests one thing, across Scotland people generally vote for parties and not individuals which is hugely disappointing. The conveyor belt from politics graduate through parliamentary researcher to Holyrood MSP is working nicely as the dull automation of Scottish Politics continues. Who are these regional MSPs that are standing in the Parliament? What public scrutiny have they come under? We at least need to move to open lists to prevent parties holding too much control over the makeup of our Parliament.

Alex Salmond is already a living legend. Today’s result and the sheer longevity of the man will cement the SNP leader’s position not just in modern history but beyond that. Even if the SNP do not go onto win the referendum, Salmond is now up with the greatest Scottish politicians, the greatest Scots, that have ever been. He has now outlasted Thatcher, Blair and Ashdown will surely go on to be the longest serving modern-day UK leader of any party. With a Holyrood majority as a legacy, at least. Simply wow.

#SP11 – Election result/rumours liveblog

May 5

Posted by Malc in Elections | 192 Comments

1148 Hopping on here just to post up what I think will be the final result based on 3 regions reported and most seats now in:

SNP – 52+17 = 69
Lab – 15+23 = 38
Con – 3+12 = 15
LD – 3+1 = 4
Green – 0+2 = 2

How can the SNP get 69 seats under d’hondt? Well, mostly it is the collapse in Lib Dem and disappointing Green vote that is helping out, freeing up those 6th and 7th regional seats to be gobbled up by the hungry Nat machine. I even have the SNP to take a regional seat in North East despite taking a clean sweep there.

And what a disappointing night for the Greens, I don’t think they will have a better chance than this to step up to being the 4th party. Sorry James!

0800 I was hoping for a few more results before I wrapped this up… but I think the chat is done for now.  We’ll go away and do some analysis on what has been an incredible night.  Thanks for joining us – let’s chat again soon!

Malc, Jeff & Kate (and James, who was with us in spirit!).

0727 And the final North-East constituency of Aberdeen Donside also goes to the SNP… which means all 10 are yellow.  That’s an incredible result – and they might yet pick up one on the list.  Surely not?

0715 But before that, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine goes to Maureen Watt and the SNP.  Another one!

0706 Speaking of the Lothians, the regional list result will be announced soon I think.

0700 Congrats to Malcolm Chisholm – the only non-SNP MSP elected in a Lothian constituency.

0659 And Colin Beattie delivers a majority of almost 3,000 for the SNP in Midlothian North & Musselburgh.

0650 Kevin Stewart wins Aberdeen Central for the SNP from Labour’s Lewis MacDonald.  Just as I was about to say things had gone a bit quiet.  Chalk up one more in the yellow column.

0639 Hugh O’Donnell only took 821 votes in Central.  So the Lib Dem collapse wasn’t confined to current members – but former ones as well!

0638 Just beat the BBC to it…

0635 Credit to Jeff – he’s been talking this up through his figures most of the night.  I’m late to the party I know!

0632 I know the panelists are not talking about it yet – and downright avoiding it – but I’m going to say it now.  Based on my numbers, I think that the SNP ARE HEADING FOR A MAJORITY IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT.

I can hardly believe I wrote the above.

0629 Central list announced as 3 Labour, 3 SNP and 1 Conservative.

0623 The Glasgow list is as previously suggested.  In order of election: Hanzala Malik (Lab), Humza Yousaf (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Patrick Harvie (Grn), Drew Smith (Lab), Bob Doris (SNP), Anne McTaggert (Lab)

0621 John Scott makes Ayr a Conservative HOLD.  A rare bright spot for them.

0617 There are still 19 constituency seats still to declare.

0610 News out of Glasgow is that the list looks like this: 3 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 Conservative and 1 Green.  But that’s not confirmed yet.

0603 I was going to make a list of the seats the SNP have won so far, but the list is just too big!  The SNP are currently on 37 constituency seats.  They only won 21 in 2007… and we’ve still got the Highlands & Islands, most of Mid-Scotland & Fife and a couple of Aberdeen seats to go…

0601 And let’s start with another massive one.  Clydebank and Milngavie is an SNP GAIN.  Gil Paterson takes it from Labour’s Des McNulty.  Incredible stuff.

0600 Malc’s back.  I’ve now been up for 24 hours and I don’t feel like it.  In actual fact, I feel like I’ve been dreaming all day.  What has happened over the last 8 hours since polls closed?!

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0555 And just before I hand over to Malc – another result Carrick and Cumnock Doon Valley – guess what? an SNP GAIN.  Adam Ingram who has been a first class SNP Government Minister for children wins a seat of his own.  Well deserved and personally, hope he is back as Minister for Children and Early Years.  And can really push through his plans for transformational change.

0550 Well look’s like the polls were right and we sceptics were wrong.  Swing to SNP is huge.

0543 Edinburgh Central result – SNP GAIN.  Sarah Boyack, MSP since 1999 and lifelong devolution supporter, out.  And sympathy for Alex Cole-Hamilton who has put his heart and soul into this seat.  And is a good guy working for social justice for children.  But Marco Biagi is a very fine victor.  Extremely talented, hard working and utterly deserving of the victory.

0535 The SNP are sitting on 30 – yes, 30 – constituency seats and many more still to come.  An overall majority is definitely within touching distance.

0530 Okay think Labour leadership between Jackie Baillie and Ken Macintosh – two who triumphed against all the odds.  Both managed to make their votes go up.  Gives them a huge advantage over all the rest.

0528 Oh dear, Jim Wallace of Lib Dems, needs a break.  Been on all night and tetchy and making spurious arguments.  Paul Martin now being rude.  Oh dear, oh dear.

0527 BREAKING – SNP GAIN Glasgow Anniesland.  Labour concedes after how many recounts?  Great result.

0525 Aberdeenshire West – Lib Dem HOLD!  Kidding!  just seeing who is still awake?!  No, it is an SNP GAIN.  And Dennis Robertson who has been a tireless disability campaigner and has a visual impairment will make a wonderful MSP.  As a result of the natural hegemony being challenged, we are likely to have better gender balance, ethnic minority MSPs, and more disabled MSPs than ever before.  And all of that can only be a good thing.

0523 Chisholm holds on for Labour in Edinburgh Northern and Leith – and reward for independence of mind, betraying party whip on occasion and being a decent constituency MSP

0522 Yes James Mitchell on STV, I’m flagging too.  Wise words from Margo Macdonald – parliament from hell.  Lots of newbies, no experience – no bad thing in itself – but huge issues coming our way.

o515 Kenneth Gibson who is rumoured to have won Cunninghame North in 2007 because ballot papers got wet on the journey over from Arran returned with a 6000 majority.  Has been a hard working constituency MSP and a well deserved return and increased majority.

0508 Refnrewshire North – another SNP GAIN!  Delighted to see all the gang that made my life a misery – lol! – when they were the SNP YSI coming of age!  Jesting.  Loved working with them years ago and delighted to see Derek and George Adam fulfil their potential.  Already telt George Adam that he owes me a tea and scone!

0506 The burd is back!  And listening to Johann Lamont whose voice is breaking.  I feel for Johann, I have worked with her on a number of issues – we don’t always agree!  But she is a good and decent person and I feel for her.  But Scottish Labour is now realising its number is up.  And time to do the rethink they did not do after 2007.  Scotland will be a better place politically for this shift

 

0500 – Edinburgh South being announced now – SNP beat Labour by about 700 votes, winning from 4th position. Incredible.

0458 – SNP win Paisley by a few hundred votes. I had Labour down to win that by a few hundred until that result came in so a great result there to get over the line.

0456 – Malcolm Chisholm expected to hold Edinburgh Northern & Leith in contrast to national swing – just rewards for voting with his conscience in key votes?

0452 – Expected seat projection from my model: SNP – 53, Labour – 16, LD – 2, Tory – 2

In total – SNP – 63, Labour – 39, Con – 14, Greens – 8, Lib Dems – 4, Ind – 1

0448 – Tom Gordon is reporting that George Galloway has NOT won a seat in Glasgow. Labour looking good for two.

0444 – Fiona Hyslop has won Livingston by a good 4091 votes. The closest seat I have left is Kirkcaldy which I expect the SNP to win by 800 votes. It’s all starting to hinge on those list votes now as to whether the Nats can form a majority. Has the SNP vote held up? Will the Greens make remarkable gains given the Lib Dem collapse?

0437 – The SNP has won Edinburgh Western and there is a recount in Edinburth Northern & Leith

0436 – Reports are coming in of stockpiling of White Cider and MD2020 before the SNP’s minimum pricing Bill comes to the Parliament

0431 – A Labour activist has conceded that Labour have lost Cunninghame South to the SNP. Big win for the Nats that one.

0425 – Good news for Derek Brownlee, the Tories have not taken Dumfriesshire so the Finance Shadow Spokesperson can expect to stay on as a list MSP in the South

0422 – As suggested earlier, SNP has taken Edinburgh Pentlands from the Conservatives

0420 – Breaking! SNP take Strathkelvin. The shocks get bigger and bigger!

0419 – Fine speech from Alex Salmond, expect to see this over and over again – talking about no more the scaremongering of the Scottish people. “The SNP will represent all of Scotland just as all of Scotland makes the Scottish National Party”.

0415 – Apparently James (who sadly can’t be with us this evening) has 40/1 on John Park to be the next Labour leader and given Kate’s update at 03:56, it looks like very good value. Iain Gray refused to even concede the election an hour or so ago and the good news for Labour is that you don’t go to jail for carrying a knife because Iain Gray will be turfed out soon enough. The worrying thing for Labour really is not so much who the next leader may be but the quality of the MSPs that are coming in through the lists, the individuals who will have to step up from council bunfights to making quality legislation for Scotland. Will this be five years of a Labour team that has garduated too early? I do believe that Labour’s problems are only just beginning.

0412 – I’ve run the most uptodate numbers through my model, including Labour win in Motherwell by a very slim margin and I make the breakdown to be:

SNP – 53/10 = 63
Labour – 16/23 = 39
Con – 2/12 = 14
Green – 0/8 = 8
Lib Dem – 2/2 = 4
Ind = 1

This is based on a guess of the list vote of:

SNP – 42%
Labour – 30%
Con – 13%
Greens – 8%
Lib Dems – 6%

0409 – A mini-shock here perhaps but Alex Fergusson has won Galloway and West Dumfries. This suggests that some Tory-held seats may stay blue despite swings we are seeing in other seats. Bad news for Derek Brownlee who needs to get in on the list in the South, but he should be safe.

0407 A quick point on the Greens – Patrick Harvie would still be elected on 4% of the vote but with the Lib Dem collapse it looks set to be upwards of 8%. I think 8 Green MSPs at a minimum and with the SNP looking set to fall just short of 65 seats, it’s a great position for them.

0405 – Hi Andrew Sparrow here, taking over the liveblog…. Just joking, it’s a very tired Jeff but what a time to rejoin proceedings. Glasgow Cathcart goes SNP with James Dornan seeing Charlie Gordon off. I’m delighted for Dornan after the selection debacle for Glasgow North East by-election.

0401 BREAKING – Galloway looks certain to stay Conservative.  Personally very disappointed.

0356 And while we have a breather… very interesting that John Park, the campaigns co-ordinator for Scottish Labour, deviated from the script.  The line running was that Lib Dem vote collapsing and coalescing around the SNP.  Which is stuff and nonsense.  John Park came straight out and said this is not a good night, people have turned away from Labour and the party must learn lessons from this.  Good for him.  Pointless spinning just adds to the problem.  A little honesty required.  And he delivered the ground war the party needed – targeting, resources, activists.  But was let down by the incompetence of the air war and the national campaign.

If there is one good thing to come out of this, it is that Labour will now have to do the revaluation of who they are and where they stand, the things they failed to do post 2007.  It is an exciting time for Scottish politics, with an aspirational party heading close to an overall majority and a total re-examination and introspection by the second largest party, and the same for a key minority party.

It is all good.

0354 This is a remarkable result for Alex Salmond personally.  He has finally achieved the breakthrough that the SNP, for years, has dreamed of.  And as James Mitchell on STV points out, we haven’t even had results from the SNP heartlands of North East Scotland and Highlands and Islands, and Mid Scotland and Fife.  The latter two count tomorrow morning.

0351 Lib Dems losing deposits all over Scotland.  Tavish surely cannot continue as leader?  But big story is not the Lib Dem meltdown, but the Labour heartland vote shifting over to the SNP.

0347 Coming thick and fast – Cumbernauld and Kilsyth GAIN for the SNP!  And with a huge majority!! Somebody pinch me….

0344 Glasgow Shettleston – SNP GAIN!  Can anyone believe what is happening?!

0344 Huge majority for Michael Matheson in Falkirk West.  And Anniesland, if SNP takes it, means Bill Kidd who did not get high enough on the list to guarantee a return, might still get back!

0343 Can hardly keep up!  STV just announced a recount in Anniesland with SNP up by 4 votes.  And breaking that SNP takes Edinburgh Pentlands from the Tories.  People, stay with this historic night – and much more to come tomorrow.

0341 Tavish Scott holds Shetland for Lib Dems but look at swing against him!  Huge.  Does not augur well for closer Lib Dem seats elsewhere.  Also Liam McArthur holds Orkney but much reduced majority.  Still he must have a shout of leadership surely?

0340 BREAKING the burd is officially rubbish at predictions!  I hang my head in shame – should believe the polls, must do penance…

0338 Has Elaine Smith done enough to hold on in Coatbridge?  Yes!  And by a clear majority – one of the few of the night so far

0337 Iain Gray seems to concede defeat and seemingly to call a clean sweep in Edinburgh for SNP – surely not?!

0336 I am!  Just in from STV – Galloway and West Dumfries stays Tory!  Nooo!!  But Labour to take Dumfriesshire!

0335 – Kate’s back

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0330 And the biggie… East Lothian. Iain Gray holds on.  Just.  Just.  A majority of just 151. Wow.  Nearly.

0329 SNP hold Falkirk West (Michael Matheson).

0328 Results flying in now.  Shetland Islands is a Lib Dem hold.  Tavish Scott safely back.

0325 Labour hold Greenock and Inverclyde with a majority of just 500.  And finally, finally, the Lib Dems save a deposit!  Duncan McNeil back for Labour there.

0323 Oh, and it looks like Cathcart is an SNP GAIN as well… where will this acid trip end?!  Hearing Kelvin too… FOUR yellow seats in Glasgow?  Mental.

0321 In the next half hour, hopefully we’ll get East Lothian, Paisley, Renfrewshire and Shettleston results.  Each sounds like its on a knife edge.

0318 Oh and 9 seats announced so far. 8 Lib Dem candidates… and 8 lost deposits.  Oh dear doesn’t even cover it.

0316 Alex Neil gets the prize for the first TV mention of a natural disaster to describe the results.  “Political tsunami” was the phrase he used.  He’s right – there’s a wave of yellow sweeping Labour faces away.

0311 Shona Robison returns in Dundee City East with 64% of the vote.  I heard that on Radio Scotland but haven’t seen it on TV yet.  Actually, just confirmed.  Majority of 10,679!

0306 I also understand that the Shettleston seat has indeed gone the way of the SNP.  We’ll soon find out I think, but it looks like John Mason has beaten out Frank McAveety.

0305 And another result… and a stonking win for the SNP.  Glasgow Southside returns Nicola Sturgeon with a massive majority of 5,000-ish.

0302 Another big win for the SNP.  Alex Neil makes Airdrie & Shotts an SNP GAIN.  Majority of 2001.

0301 More rumours:  Iain Gray hangs on in East Lothian, by around 200 votes.  Meanwhile, SNP potential gain in Shettleston – it goes to a recount, as does Coatbridge & Chryston (according to Twitter).  Again – stressing rumours.

0300 Two results to bring up to date.  Labour get a notional GAIN in Eastwood and a sold-ish HOLD in Uddingston & Bellshill though the latter has a reduction in its majority to just 400 votes.

0259 Malc back at the helm!

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02:47 Mixed messages on East Lothian. Airdrie & Coatbridge Advertiser has a Labour source suggesting that Iain Gray has lost the seat. An ashen-faced Gray is on tv now.

02:45 Grant Thoms, SNP councillor, is claiming that Shettleston looks like it has fallen to John Mason. That would be massive and would see the Nats exceeding even its earlier results in East Kilbride and Hamilton. A strong personal vote for a popular man pushing the vote higher in this constituency perhaps.

02:42 The lowest turnout in Glasgow was in Maryhill and Springburn – just over 36%. Really quite poor. People are fighting and dying in Egypt, Syria, Libya and 64% of people can’t be arsed getting to a polling station? People need to get involved or else we get the campaign we deserve which, sadly, was politicians promising us the earth because the electorate didn’t want to be interested and know about the detail and learn about the personalities. Furthermore, I don’t think that turnout is going to tip the balance in the AV referendum somehow!

02:35 East Lothian result coming soon: 2007 notional result was Lab – 10,822, SNP – 8,713, Con – 6,032, LD – 5,822. The Tories may take too much of the vote for the SNP to win, but the SNP has two chances: (1) beat Labour on a straight Labour to SNP swing or (2) beat Labour by hoovering up most of that 5,822 Lib Dem vote. I think it must be on a knife edge; I’m predicting a recount. @journodave is hearing that Gray has scraped to a win – very reliable journo that one.

02:32 We have only had results from seats that were clear Labour vs SNP matchups. A very interesting dynamic will be whether supports of the SNP will tactically vote against Labour (Edinburgh Southern/Dumfriesshire/Eastwood) or whether they will back the SNP into 2nd or even 1st in many cases. From another perspective, East Lothian will give us a view as to whether the SNP can attract votes from a strong Tory 3rd place (Derek Brownlee is the Conservative candidate in East Lothian).

02:28 A Labour councillor has admitted at the count that Des McNulty may well lose his Clydebank and Milngavie seat. A surprise winner in all of this could be Ken McIntosh of course who is not up against the SNP as much as he is up against the Conservatives. His misfortune at not getting to challenge Renfrewshire could save him. And, Ken is a dark horse for the leadership if you ask me….

02:26 Mike Rumbles expected to lose seat to the SNP – BBC Scotland

02:21 9 minutes until East Lothian declares and a lot of people will be holding their betting slips hoping for an upset. Can we even call it an upset any more? Iain Gray was on air earlier claiming that his voteshare has gone up but even if he does win his seat and stays on as an MSP, his time as leader of the Labour group is surely over. So who may be next? John Park is a leading contender according to Malc, I think Sarah Boyack might be in with a chance and you can never rule out a new face from the inevtiable new crop coming in through the list. Early days but Scottish Labour probably need to ‘do a Cameron’ and find a personality that they can train up to represent the post-Salmond generation.

02:19 The first three gains so far have been delivered by SNP ladies. Great news for the gender bias of the Parliament.

02:13 I have my handy model here and as the results come in, I am taking an average of the swings for each party and applying that swing to the remaining seats. So far, after 4 seats called, the constituency voteshare is predicted to be: SNP – 48%, Lab – 30%, Con – 13%, LD – 4%. That would give seats of SNP – 60/6 = 66, Lab – 11/27 = 38, Con – 2/12 = 14, Grn 0/8 = 8 (based on 8% voteshare), LD – 0/2 = 2

Now, no Lib Dem or Tory constituencies have been called yet so there is a skewing in the above but we are right on the line of an SNP overall majority as results stand currently.

02:09 Here we go then, Jeff here taking over from Kate. And first of all we have the Clydesdale result. Well within the SNP’s grasp given earlier results….. Aileen Campbell – 14,391, Karen Gillon, 10,715. That’s a storming win for the SNP and another constituency in the bank. If the regional vote holds up, we’re talking a majority Parliament.

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02:00 Before handing over to Jeff, a couple of whispers – now looking definite for THREE seat gains in Glasgow.  Clydesdale definitely gone.  Strathkelvin and Bearsden looking shoogly and rumours now, too, of the SNP taking Cumbernauld and Kilsyth.  And Airdrie and Shotts also looking a shoe-in for Alex Neil.  So I’ll leave you with this thought from a friend and catch up with you all later:

*unbelievable the seat that sent Jennie Lee and John Smith to parliament in Westminster looks like it is lost to Labour in Scotland*

01:54 Whatever else, Iain Gray’s short reign as Labour leader is over.  But who will be left to pick up the reins?  With big hitters falling, it will be a case of last man or woman standing.  David Whitton now seems a shoe-in.  But did anyone else read John Curtice today in the Herald touting Richard Baker?  No, really.  Response of one Labour insider to that suggestion:  *if Baker becomes labour leader, I’m defecting to the SNP!*

01:50 Alasdair Carmichael on STV right now putting the Westminster spin on these results – do these craiturs never learn?  Not about Westminster but about Scotland

01:47 Anne Begg all but conceded that SNP will sweep the board across Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen.  If their regional vote holds up they may still take list seats too – no doubt Jeff is busy calculating it all!  But we are witnessing a seismic shift in Scottish politics.  There is Conservative government at Westminster and heartlands in Lanarkshire did not go home but opted for the SNP offer.  Remarkable

01:33 BREAKING The burdz intelligence comes good – TOM McCABE out in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.  Christina McKelvie takes the seat for the SNP.

01:32 BREAKING *looking good* for the SNP and incumbent Willie Coffey in Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley

 

Kate: Hello people!  So are we all set fair for an historic night in Scottish politics?

Well placed rumours suggesting that this is going to be worse night for Labour than first thought and this remarkable rumour from inside the South Lanarkshire count that not only Karen Gillon in trouble but also… Tom McCabe!

If these kind of swings are happening, even Iain Gray not safe.  Not safe at all.

 

0130

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Malc:

0130 I’ve been on this for 2 and a half hours, so I’m passing the baton on to Kate for the next half hour or so.  Jeff will take over at some point too – and then I’ll be back, possibly around 3ish.  Lets keep each other going!

0126 Right – only 2 results, so let’s not go crazy yet… but its looking like an utter collapse for the Lib Dems, a fair shift of their vote going to the SNP, a bit of a gubbing for Labour and a massive night for the SNP.

0116 Next seat to declare is indeed East Kilbride.  Linda Fabiani does indeed beat Andy Kerr.  That’s an SNP GAIN.  Absolutely massive result.  Majority of 1,949.  Another big swing to the SNP – 6.6%.  And another lost deposit for the Lib Dems.  Just 1.5% of the vote for them.  Ouch.

0110 TV pictures suggest that Linda Fabiani may well have beaten Andy Kerr in East Kilbride.  That’s massive.  If substantiated.  Massive.  Andy Kerr isn’t on the list, so he’d be gone.  And if Labour are facing a massive fall in seats… Andy Kerr would have been a contender for leader.  Not looking good for Labour.

0101 Couple more rumours – again stress, rumours – Nicola Sturgeon likely to hold Southside with “substantially increased majority”, Sandra White will take Kelvin for the SNP (that’s apparently set for a recount).  Cathcart will stay with Labour, and Shettleston too – though the majorities in both will be reduced.  Another rumour that Alex Neil perhaps won’t have enough to take Airdrie & Shotts.  But I don’t know if I agree on the last one – any thoughts?!

0055 First result of the night is Rutherglen – and James Kelly is re-elected for Labour (hold).  Majority is 1,779 – down from notional majority of over 5,000.  Big swing to the SNP.  Is that story of the night?  Also – Lib Dems lose their deposit in Rutherglen – is that the story of the night?!

0047 In the absence of any results, more rumour.  From Edinburgh again.  Lib Dems worried in 2 of three seats… which we thought was about right.  But to the SNP, not to Labour.  Which would, to quote my source, be ‘interesting’!

0028 Could do with a result soon to play with the figures.  Rutherglen and East Kilbride are apparently up soon.  Will we get a read on the rest of the night from these seats?  Or can we extrapolate anything from them?

0015 So how close will any of our predictions be?  Clydesdale looking like SNP at the moment.  Aberdeen South & North Kincardine too.  We won’t have to wait too long for East Kilbride… my sense is that Andy Kerr will hang on – but what do we think?

2358 And closer to my home… Edinburgh Central – whose candidates all participated in an online hustings for us a few weeks ago – is looking “interesting” according to a source of mine.  Could Jeff’s prediction of an SNP win be on the cards?  Or is “interesting” just “quite close but no cigar”?  Too soon to say…

2351 Further to the text I got – a comment on Political Betting suggests Clydesdale has seen a 10% rise in SNP vote and Labour’s vote is down on their 2007 vote.  Still rumour… but worrying signs for Labour?

2343 Just some chat off Twitter.  Labour are apparently worried about Kelvin and though Charlie Gordon himself is confident, rumours are that they may also lose Cathcart.  Alex Neil also apparently quite confident about Airdrie & Shotts… and a text rumour coming to me that the SNP are ‘looking good’ in Clydesdale.  Obviously, far too early for anything… but that’s the chat for the moment.

2330 Like me, you are probably watching #bbcqt on mute while waiting for our BBC coverage to return.  I guess there’s also STV.  I wanted to point out also that my PhD Supervisor, Peter Lynch, will be providing some of the punditry on BBC Radio Scotland if you fancy a break from the TV stuff…

2319 More on that poll – it had a sample size of 865 and of those, only 54% actually gave a preference.  So a smaller sample yes – and perhaps not too much to be drawn from it…

2303 I understand that there was a poll conducted for the Daily Mail 2 days ago.  Apparently it puts the SNP’s constituency vote at a whopping 51% (almost double Labour’s share on 26%).  I suspect that’s overstating it somewhat.  Surely?  I mean, if its right – this is a watershed moment in Scottish politics.  And that’s understating it!  I’d put the SNP’s constituency share at no more than 42-43% (if it gets that high – remember the highest they’ve ever polled previously is 33%!).    So I guess its wait and see on this…

22:50 Good evening all.  While Jeff and Kate get some kip, I’ll get the ball rolling on the early shift.  I don’t know that there’s much to say at this point – I hope you’ve enjoyed the endless predictions (well, they’ve almost ended now!), the campaign coverage, the guest blogs and the general chat here during the election.  We’ll try to get some chat going through the night as results come in – as well as giving you some ridiculous rumours from counts around the country.

Well, all that sounds rather grand eh?  Actually, I hope this will just be good banter.  So join us for as little or as long as you like, get some chat in the comments – thoughts on what’ll happen, rumours you are hearing, you know the score.  And grab a cup of tea and some munchies… we’ll be here a while!

#sp11 – Jeff’s last minute predictions

May 5

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Holyrood | 54 Comments

Well, well, well. The magical day has arrived. We won’t have another election until 2016 so for goodness sake enjoy yourselves. Mind you, the next Parliament may descend into a morass of indecision, fail to return a First Minister and we’ll be back at the polls this Summer but that’s unlikely, right…..? Hmmm

Anyway, I’ve borrowed Malc’s post to pull together my own predictions; mostly based on the polling data and the model that I have pulled together but also using a bit of dice-rolling from my expectations based on incumbents (e.g. Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, Edinburgh South) and also on some potential surprises (Edinburgh Central, Edinburgh West), not to mention some good old-fashioned ‘were you up for….’ moments (East Kilbride, Dumbarton).

I do think that the Lib Dems will not do as badly as the polls are predicting and I do think that the SNP’s numbers will tighten slightly so…. I couldn’t bring myself to predict Iain Gray losing East Lothian or Tories winning North East Fife but, well, here goes…….!

Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – Labour (Cathy Craigie)
East Kilbride – SNP (Linda Fabiani)
Falkirk East – Labour (Cathy Peattie)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)

List: 4 SNP (Jamie Hepburn, Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, Angus McDonald), 2 Labour (Siobhan McMahon, Mark Griffin), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell). [Order elected: SNP CON SNP SNP LAB SNP LAB]

Glasgow
Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – SNP (James Dornan)
Kelvin – SNP (Sandra White)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)

List: 2 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson), 1 Lib Dem (Katy Gordon), 1 Labour (Hanzala Malik) and 2 Green (Patrick Harvie, Martha Wardrop) [Order elected: GRN SNP CON LD SNP LAB GRN]

Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)

List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 Lib Dem (Jamie Paterson), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrogor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB GRN CON LAB LD]

Lothian
Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – SNP (Marco Biagi)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lib Dem (Mike Rumbles)
Edinburgh Western – SNP (Colin Keir)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – SNP (Colin Beattie)

List: 3 Labour (Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale, Neil Findlay), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 2 Greens (Alison Johnstone, Steve Burgess) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald) [Order elected: LAB GRN LAB IND CON LAB GRN]

Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – SNP (William Walker)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)

List: 2 Labour (John Park, Claire Baker), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs), 1 Lib Dem (Willie Rennie) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell) [Order elected: CON LAB CON GRN LAB LD CON]

North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – LD (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)

List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 1 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LD LAB GRN]

South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – SNP (Adam Ingram)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – SNP (Aileen McLeod)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)

List: 3 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson, Marie Rooney), 2 Conservative (Derek Brownlee, Peter Duncan) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume), Green (Alis Ballance) [Order elected: LAB LD CON LAB GRN LAB CON]

West Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)

List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod), 1 Green (Steen Parish), 2 Conservative (Annabel Goldie, Maurice Golden) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie) [Order elected: SNP CON LD SNP GRN SNP CON]

So, full results would be:

SNP – 41/11 = 52
Labour – 23/18 = 41
Conservative – 4/13 = 17
Lib Dems – 5/5 = 10
Greens – 0/8 = 8
Margo – 0/1 = 1

The only two-party coalition would be an SNP/Tory Government which is interesting and also, of course, highly unlikely.

My dream scenario of an SNP/Green is 5 seats short but, of course, there are Labour-held seats in the above that could fall to the Nats (and SNP-held seats that could fall to Labour). My hope is that the SNP regional vote will hold up but not to the detriment of the Greens, optimistic given that I have the Greens taking 3 of the 8 ‘squeaky bum’ 7th spots in the regions.

Permutations, combinations and deliberations. I could spend all night considering them, but we’ve only got about 12 hours until we start to find out what the political lay of the land for the next 5 years will be.

(And to think only a few weeks ago I was saying Kenny MacAskill would lose Edinburgh Eastern…..!)

#SP11 – Malc’s last-minute predictions

May 5

Posted by Malc in Elections, Holyrood | 48 Comments

The following isn’t based on opinion polls… its my own opinion.  I’ve used some numbers, some intuition and some outrageous guesswork to come to the following conclusion.  By all means, rip apart my outcomes – we’ll only have to wait a day to see how close/ completely wrong I am.  But it is worth mentioning again – there’s no real methodology here.  It’s just one person’s (kind of educated) guess of how we’ll see Holyrood looking next week.

Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – SNP (Jamie Hepburn)
East Kilbride – Labour (Andy Kerr)
Falkirk East – Labour (Cathy Peattie)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)

List: 4 SNP (Linda Fabiani, Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, Angus McDonald), 1 Labour (Siobhan McMahon), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell) and 1 Green (Kirsten Robb). [Order elected: SNP CON SNP SNP LAB SNP GRN]

Glasgow
Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – Lab (Charlie Gordon)
Kelvin – Lab (Pauline McNeill)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)

List:  5 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris, Sandra White, Sid Khan, James Dornan), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson) and 1 Green (Patrick Harvie) [Order elected: SNP SNP SNP CON SNP GRN SNP]

Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)

List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 SNP (John Finnie), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrogor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB GRN SNP]

Lothian
Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – Lab (Sarah Boyack)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lab (Paul Godzik)
Edinburgh Western – LD (Margaret Smith)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North & Musselburgh – Lab (Bernard Hopkins)

List: 3 SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville, George Kerevan, Colin Beattie),  1 Lib Dem (Alex Cole-Hamilton), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 1 Green (Alison Johnstone) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald) [Order elected: GRN IND SNP CON SNP LD SNP]

Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – Lab (Alex Rowley)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)

List: 1 Labour (John Park), 2 SNP (Annabelle Ewing, Douglas Chapman), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell) [Order elected: CON CON LAB SNP SNP GRN CON]

North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – LD (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)

List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 1 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford) [Order elected: LAB CON LAB CON LAB LD GRN]

South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – Lab (Richard Leonard)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – Con (Alex Fergusson)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)

List: 3 SNP (Adam Ingram, Joan McAlpine, Aileen McLeod), 2 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson), 1 Conservative (Derek Brownlee) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume) [Order elected: LD SNP LAB SNP CON LAB SNP]

West Scotland
Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)

List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod), 1 Lab (Mary Fee), 2 Conservative (Annabel Goldie, Maurice Golden) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie) [Order elected: SNP CON SNP LD SNP CON LAB]

So, my 2011-2016 Holyrood Parliament would look like this:

And it would have the following regional breakdown:

 

And since we discussed it previously, should I be right about the election, there will be 45 female MSPs.  Our original projections – based on previous polls – made that figure 47, and we found a way for that to rise to 51 if seats went a particular way.  However, just with the way the predictions have gone, I make it 45 – which is still an increase on 2007 (albeit a minor one).

Thus – SNP minority, with likely support from the Conservatives on issue by issue basis seems to be what I think will happen.  But these are just my musings – and you’ll get some more later on – but what do you think?

A fork in the road for Scotland.

May 4

Posted by Guest Blog in Elections, Holyrood, Parties | 32 Comments

Our last pre-poll guest blog comes from the Greens’ co-convenor Patrick Harvie, standing again at the top of the party’s list in Glasgow.

So the end is in sight. After a long campaign and, for me, a tough four years of trying to make an constructive impact with a parliamentary group of just two, we’re on the eve of the 2011 Holyrood election.

Much comment has been made of the dramatic turnaround in the polls, from a clear Labour lead, through a period when they were roughly neck and neck with the SNP, to some apparently commanding poll leads for the Nationalists.

Few people would say that Labour has helped itself much over the last couple of months. Their campaign has been lacking in just about every quality which could possibly inspire people to put them back into government.

Of course nothing is certain until the votes are counted, but if the polls are right about the scale of the SNP lead (and the LibDem collapse) then the SNP might just be faced with some far more profound choices than they had to make in the last session at Holyrood.

In 2007 the SNP were given an extraordinary opportunity: their first chance to form a government. I supported many of the things they’ve done with that opportunity, and I opposed many others. But crucially they proved that minority government was viable in Scotland.

They did so in what should have been a very weak position. Fully 18 seats short of a majority, they had to find support week after week either from Labour (which was rare) or from at least two other parties. Their success rate owes a great deal to the abilities and straightforwardness of Bruce Crawford, but it wasn’t easy and on many issues it proved impossible.

But if the polls are to be believed the next five years could see a much stronger minority position for the SNP. If they lead a government which needs only the support of any one other party to form a majority, they will have a far more powerful role. But with that power would come responsibility. They would find themselves faced with a genuine choice of political direction, which arguably they have not had in the last session. So the second question in this election is about the balance of power, and the Tories have made it very clear that they hope to exert greater control over the next government.

Most SNP activists, I’m pretty sure, are resolute in their opposition to any formal coalition with the Conservatives, and the party’s rules against such a deal still stand. But even those activists must recognise that the government’s strongest informal relationship has been with Annabel in the blue corner. It has covered motions both meaningful and symbolic, legislation and amendments on many issues, all budgets, and policy development too… even if the Tories gave little sign of interest in the actual delivery of changes to drugs policy once the press releases were out.

Faced with the option of maintaining and deepening that relationship, or cutting it off to open up new possibilities in the progressive ground of Scottish politics, what will they do?

There can be no doubt that on charisma, on face recognition, and in a personality contest for the “top job”, the SNP are leading the field. But if the SNP do find themselves with a choice over who to work with in the next Parliament, they will be challenged to do what they as well as Labour have so far failed to do, and construct a serious response to the economic crisis which acknowledges the failure of the deregulated free market model which has been dominant for so long. The lack of such a response from political parties which style themselves the “mainstream centre-left” has been dismal, and it has been left to the likes of UK Uncut, the Robin Hood Tax campaign, and many in the trades union movement to begin the task.

If the SNP are interested in being part of that response, or even leading it in Scotland, they must look to an alternative balance of power in Holyrood. There is simply no prospect that it can be done by a government which is reliant on the votes of the UK Coalition parties to get through its programme.

So the change at the top of the polls over recent weeks is important, of course. But the change lower down could be even more crucial. It could open up the chance for a long term realignment in our politics, and a greater unity of purpose between centre-left and radical movements, if the will exists to see that happen. Or it could leave us with a de facto centre-right government in Scotland despite the overwhelming number of voters whose votes and opinions lean leftward.