Archive for category Elections

Lib Dems of a weak disposition should look away now…

I’ve been having a look inside the Lib Dem numbers in last week’s election, just to see how big their fall has been.  And its pretty far.  There’s no real analysis of why this happened in this post – I’ll let you make up your own mind on that – its just an overview of the numbers we’re talking about.

Some baseline figures first.  The Lib Dems had 16 seats before the election.  They now have 5.  They held 11 constituency seats in 2007.  That figure is now 2 – Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands.  But its the voting numbers behind that which will give a bit more pause for thought.

On the constituency vote the Lib Dems took 157,714 votes – that is, 7.9% of the vote.  In 2007 they took 326,232 constituency votes or 16.2% of the vote then.  In the intervening four years the Lib Dems have lost 168,518 votes on the constituency vote – down 8.2%.  These numbers are massive.

On the regional vote, the Lib Dems took 103,472 votes – 5.2% of the vote.  In 2007, that figure was 230,671, 11.3% of the vote.  That’s down 127,199 from 2007, a loss of 6.1%.  Those numbers are equally massive.

Add together the reduction of vote on both constituency and regional ballots and the Lib Dems have lost over a quarter of a million votes between the 2 elections – 295,717 to be precise.  Now, granted a lot of them will perhaps have been double-Lib Dem votes, but that’s still a sizeable fall.  A collapse, for want of a better word.

Let’s have a closer look at the Lib Dem vote in a region-by-region breakdown.

Central Scotland:
2007 – 14,628
2011 –  3,318

Glasgow:
2007 – 14,767
2011 – 5,312

Highlands & Islands:
2007 – 37,001
2011 – 21,729

Lothians:
2007 – 36,571
2011 –  15,588

Mid-Scotland & Fife:
2007 – 36,195
2011 –  15,103

North-East Scotland:
2007 – 40,934
2011 –  18,178

South of Scotland:
2007 – 28,084
2011 –  15,096

West of Scotland:
2007 – 22,515
2011 – 9,148

Only in the Highlands & Islands and the South of Scotland did the Lib Dem regional vote not fall by more than 50%.  In Central that figure was 78%.

Its hard to know if the picture is better or bleaker on the constituency vote.  Let’s look at the share of the vote in constituencies held by Lib Dems in 2007 and how far they fell in 2011.

Aberdeen South & North Kincardine:
2007 – 10,843
2011 - 4,994

Aberdeenshire West:
2007 – 14,314
2011 – 8,074

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross:
2007 – 8,981
2011 – 6,385

Dunfermline:
2007 – 9,952
2011 –  5,776

Edinburgh Southern:
2007 – 11,398
2011 – 8,297

Edinburgh Western:
2007 – 13,667
2011 –  9,276

Fife North East:
2007 – 13,307
2011 – 8,427

Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale:
2007 – 10,636
2011 –  8,931

Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch:
2007 – 13,501
2011 – 9,742

And the two that the party won:

Orkney Islands:
2007 –  4,113
2011 – 2,912

Shetland Islands:
2007 – 6,531
2011 –  4,462

Sizeable falls in each.  Not to mention the 25 constituencies in which the Lib Dems fell below 5% of the vote, losing their deposit on the way.  That’s £12,500 worth of deposits the party won’t be getting back.  Calling it a bad night for the party is understating it considerably.

I don’t give my colleagues enough credit sometimes – but James saw it coming in this post 5 weeks before the election.  And I was making the case that the Lib Dems hadn’t really said anything about anything other than policing the week before it.

I don’t want this to sound like I’m kicking the Lib Dems when they are down, nor do I take any great pleasure in losing some of their MSPs from Parliament.  I very much liked Margaret Smith and Iain Smith as MSPs, and Jeremy Purvis, “marmite” figure though he occasionally may be (that suit!!!), was a very, very competent finance spokesman.  So I’m sad to see a few of them out of Holyrood.  That said – I don’t think as a party there is anything distinctive there.  There’s no hook for the public to vote for them.  If you are a social democrat, you’ll vote SNP or Labour.  If you are slightly environmental, you vote Green.  If you are kind of centre-right, you vote Tory.   What do the Lib Dems offer?  Are they particularly liberal or democratic?  If they are, I’m not convinced they’ve done a good job convincing anyone of it – and 290,000 fewer votes suggests I’m right about that.

I guess what I’m saying is what James was saying 6 weeks ago.  Sometimes parties lose go away.  Now perhaps that was a little premature – especially since the party are in power at Westminster.  Will’s analysis offers some hope for the Lib Dems in Scotland, so I suppose if you are a Lib Dem and this has depressed you much, that’s where you should head.  But whatever you do – have a good look at the numbers above first.  There’s a big problem for you – how to attract those voters back.  Because without something distinctive, it may take you sometime to see them again.

#sp11 under Sainte-Laguë.

A guest post from Richard Laird. Richard is a Politics graduate from the University of Dundee and past parliamentary candidate for the Scottish National Party who tweets as @Richard_Laird.

André Sainte-LaguëThose of you who saw last night’s Newsnight Scotland will have seen Professor John Curtice raise the possibility of altering the system used to elect the Scottish Parliament. Specifically, Professor Curtice suggested changing the way regional MSPs are elected by replacing the D’Hondt formula with the Sainte-Laguë equivalent.

Named after French mathematician André Sainte-Laguë (left), and used in numerous countries as a form of proportional representation, the Sainte-Laguë method uses the same process as D’Hondt with one change: the formula. In Scotland under D’Hondt, regional seats are allocated to parties (or Independents) by dividing their regional votes by one more than the number of seats they have already won. Under Sainte-Laguë, the process is the same except the regional votes are divided by one more than double the number of seats won. In practice, this means that instead of the vote being divided by 1, 2, 3, 4, etc., it is divided by 1, 3, 5, 7, etc. Let’s look at a worked example.

Here is the (condensed) result from the West Scotland region in last week’s election:

Con Grn Lab LD SNP
Regional Votes 35,995 8,414 92,530 9,148 117,306
Constituencies 0 0 4 0 6

This result meant Labour won three regional seats, the Nationalists won two, and the Conservatives also won two. If Sainte-Laguë had been used, here is how the count would have played out:

Con Grn Lab LD SNP
First Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/1 8,414/1 92,530/9 9,148/1 117,306/13
New Total 35,995 8,414 10,281.11 9,148 9,023.54
Second Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/3 8,414/1 92,530/9 9,148/1 117,306/13
New Total 11,998.33 8,414 10,281.11 9,148 9,023.54
Third Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/5 8,414/1 92,530/9 9,148/1 117,306/13
New Total 7199 8,414 10,281.11 9,148 9,023.54
Fourth Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/5 8,414/1 92,530/11 9,148/1 117,306/13
New Total 7199 8,414 8,411.82 9,148 9,023.54
Fifth Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/5 8,414/1 92,530/11 9,148/3 117,306/13
New Total 7199 8,414 8,411.82 3,049.33 9,023.54
Sixth Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/5 8,414/1 92,530/11 9,148/3 117,306/15
New Total 7199 8,414 8,411.82 3,049.33 7,820.4
Seventh Regional Seat
Formula 35,995/5 8,414/3 92,530/11 9,148/3 117,306/15
New Total 7199 2,804.67 8,411.82 3,049.33 7,820.4

As you can see, the Conservatives retain two seats while the Greens and LibDems each win one seat with Labour and the SNP losing out accordingly. A similar story transpires across Scotland producing a Parliament which looks like this:

Region Constituency Regional Total Change
SNP 53 11 64 -5
Lab 15 19 34 -3
Con 3 12 15 ±0
LD 2 5 7 +2
Grn 0 7 7 +5
Oth 0 2 2 +1

Because it removes the bias towards larger parties, Sainte-Laguë would have seen the Greens and Lib Dems benefit at the expense of the SNP and Labour. It would also have seen George Galloway elected in Glasgow. The reason for this is that Sainte-Laguë makes it easier for a smaller party to win a first seat, but increasingly difficult to win additional ones. Only Central Scotland would be without a Green MSP with the SNP losing its top-up seats in Mid Scotland & Fife and North-East Scotland. Overall, the regions would now look like this:

Region Con Grn Lab LD SNP Oth
Central 1 0 3 0 3 0
Glasgow 1 1 2 0 2 1
H&I 2 1 2 0 2 0
Lothians 2 1 2 1 0 1
MS&F 2 1 3 1 0 0
North-East 2 1 3 1 0 0
South 0 1 2 1 3 0
West 2 1 2 1 1 0

Obviously, the changes in membership would have ramifications for the functioning of the Parliament. The increase in Green MSPs would see the party given with a seat on the Parliamentary Bureau (which determines what business the Parliament will conduct) and would likely see the Greens and LibDems posing questions to the First Minister on alternating weeks, as the Greens and SSP did between 2003 and 2006. Crucially, the SNP would be one seat short of a majority and would require the support of at least one other MSP to get motions and Bills through. However, the balance of pro- and anti-independence MSPs would remain the same with five Nationalists swapped for five Greens.

In his remarks on Newsnight, Professor Curtice addressed the fact that the SNP won a majority of seats on a minority of the vote and how the Holyrood electoral system was supposed to prevent this. His suggestion of a switch from D’Hondt to Sainte-Laguë would indeed have prevented this (just!), but would not have stopped pro-independence parties winning a comfortable majority. A move to Sainte-Laguë would improve the proportionality of Holyrood, but what really distorts the outcome is the existence of constituencies electing by First-Past-the-Post and the fact that these constituencies elect a majority of MSPs. If you want a purely proportionate parliament, change that instead.

Sauce for two geese and one gander.

Three geese, one brown two whiteDespite the crushing referendum result last week, there is one place AV will never be displaced – when politicians choose one of their own. It’s not just Labour – even the Tories do it. Sure – it’s often done differently, round by round, to allow some very sophisticated game-playing (although that doesn’t work when the membership get a say). When the Tories chose between IDS, Ken Clarke and Michael Portillo, the IDS crowd lent their first round votes to Clarke because they knew a) that their guy would make the next round and b) Ken Clarke couldn’t win.

And you can see why they use it. Candidates with a narrow support base (like Clarke in 2001) would come through the middle, especially if two similar candidates stand. You get to express all your preferences. You can vote sincerely throughout (although as above, spreading it out over several separate ballots allows a bit more gaming to come in).

Today Holyrood will use the same system to elect a Presiding Officer. We have three candidates who could almost have been designed to demonstrate this principle. Two fierce SNP women, Christine Grahame and Tricia Marwick, plus Hugh Henry, a dry but impressive former Labour minister. Christine declared first, and without iterated run-offs, that would surely have kept Tricia out. Instead she’s surely going to win.

Assuming for the sake of argument a degree of voting by party, which is unfortunately pretty likely even for a notionally non-partisan role, and assuming the rest of the tattered Yoonyonisht Conshpirashy back Hugh, it’s easy to see how he could win. Yet there can be few in the Chamber with a first preference for either of the SNP candidates and a second preference for Hugh.

The fact remains, as the AV campaign should have said, preferential voting remains the only sensible way to indicate opinion and count votes when electing a single candidate (fans of various obscure Condorcet mechanisms please take it up in the comments). And as should be obvious, there’s no good way to elect single candidates and achieve proportionality.

Why Labour Lost: a dissenting view.

Another wee guest post from Aidan Skinner, this time shorn of Python references.

Loot.There’s been a lot of chat about why the Scottish Labour Party lost the election on Thursday. A lot of what people are saying now in public are what was being said in private (and not so privately by some) during the campaign – too negative, few distinctive Labour policies, little discussion of any policy at all, the one we discussed most being a non-sensical and somewhat ephemeral one on non-mandatory mandatory minimum sentences for knife crime, matching the SNP’s regressive council tax freeze, failure to engage with Lib Dem voters, Iain Gray being a nice, thoughtful man who had presentational problems, lack of engagement with party membership, complacency at early poll leads. The wish list of high minded, hummus munching, social democratic, starting-to-buy-the-Guardian-again-after-last-years-Lib-Dem-endorsement, might-possibly-have-second-voted-Green lot is as long as the arms of their cardigans.

A lot of them are entirely accurate, and we absolutely have to address them. They’re why we lost badly. Why people like Andy Kerr and Pauline McNeill aren’t MSPs any more. They’re not why we lost though. They affected the scale of our defeat. They gave Alex Salmond his majority, which is why everybody’s working 5 days a week now instead of the 3 we were working previously. But we have fewer MSPs than the SNP because we were outspent.

The SNP had an almighty war chest thanks to Souter matching donations, likely to be 3 to 4 times the Scottish Labour Parties entire annual income. And, far more than any other factor, money wins elections. It’s not just the media buy, or the slick presentation or helicoptering the leader about. It pays for full time workers, for policy development, for media training and for set pieces which create the atmosphere and allow parties to create a media narrative. Something which we in the Labour party failed at, we let the SNP create the narrative around things like Subway-gate and Asda-gate. With money comes a professionalism which dedication alone can’t substitute for.

Of course, the process isn’t quite as simple as turning votes into money but there is a very strong correlation and, I would suggest, a causal relationship. The Scottish Labour Party must address our fund raising, and we had a particular problem with money having just fought the UK general election last year. A lot of the other things we need to do, particularly involving the party membership more and having a more coherent, positive approach will help. But you can’t win an election on intellect and spirit alone. Cash is king, unfortunately.

Running out of superlatives…

I’m trying to write this with a little less hysteria than I fear I may have given into at several points during the early hours of the morning.  If you were with us for some of the incredibly impressive gains for the SNP, you’ll know what I mean – and I apologise for getting swept up in the hype.  I’m hoping the cold light of day will help with this – though given I’ve only had 3 hours sleep in the last 36, I might be putting too much hope in the restorative powers of a shower and a cup of tea.  (Edit – I gave up writing this on Friday and went to bed, so hopefully its better for that!).

I think the first thing to say is this:  we have a PR system in the Scottish Parliament which was designed (and described) as a means to stop the SNP ever getting a majority in Holyrood.  That hasn’t worked – and the SNP will have the first majority in the history of the Scottish Parliament.

We also have to put this into some kind of historic context.  Since the 1950s, Labour have dominated Glasgow, the West of Scotland and Fife and racked up massive majorities in their Westminster seats in these areas over the years.  That UK seat record translated into similar domination of constituencies in the Scottish Parliament for the first couple of terms.  The SNP made inroads in particular areas in 2007 but Labour heartlands in Glasgow, the West and the former mining constituencies of Fife remained largely untouched.  Which is why the result is even more remarkable.  The SNP have GAINED 32 constituencies. That’s an incredible stat.

Consider this further.  The SNP now hold 53 of the 73 FPTP constituencies. Of the 20 they do not hold, Labour have 15 of them, the Conservatives 3 and the Lib Dems 2.

Of the Labour-held seats, only the two which they notionally gained from the Conservatives (Dumfriesshire and Eastwood) do not have the SNP in second place.  The SNP moved into second place in all three of the Conservative-held seats while it was only the participation of independents in both the Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands seats which bumped the SNP out of second place in those constituencies – perhaps even costing them the opportunity of winning Liam McArthur’s Orkney seat.  The bottom line is the following:

The SNP are first in 53 seats.  They are now second – and the main challenger – in a further 16.  Only in four constituencies in Scotland are the SNP not first or second.  That’s a massive sea change – and taps into what Jeff was talking about pre-election with regards the number of seats the SNP had moved into second in in 2007.

Not that it really mattered in some places.  In Edinburgh Central, in Edinburgh Pentlands, in Dunfermline and in North East Fife the SNP came from a notional third place to win, and in Edinburgh Southern they came from FOURTH.  I suppose that just emphasises how massive their victory was.

I want to keep this post short-ish because I’ve a lot of points to make about the election, and I’ll get around to them all eventually – but this is really just to try and get a handle on the size of the SNP’s win.  They converted a lot of second places into wins, but they also took advantage of weak opposition in a further 5 seats where they were not best placed to win.  And they succeeded in achieving massive increases in share of the vote – up to and including the TWENTY PERCENT increase which won Strathkelvin & Bearsden for Fiona McLeod.

I think to put the election in even more perspective – consider how little changed in last year’s Westminster election in Scotland.  No seats changed hands, and Labour increased their already substantial majorities in several seats across Scotland.  When it comes to elections, we tend to be small-c conservative with regards change – we know what we like and we like what we know.

Thursday changed that.  It also emphasised how increasingly educated the Scottish electorate has become with regards multi-level elections.  Perhaps that’s as big a story as the fact the SNP have a majority.

Perhaps not.  Nothing’s going to take away from the size of that story.  More analysis to come in the following days.