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Edinburgh’s SNP/Lib Dem Council lives to fight another day

Aug 19

Posted by Jeff in Elections | 6 Comments

In a prolonged bout of Twitter-based drama this morning, the candidates for the vacant Edinburgh council seat were eliminated one by one until only two remained, the SNP candidate Alasdair Rankin and the unliklely figure of Iain McGill, holding onto first place from round one. Alasdair won out, by a closer margin than perhaps expected even at that late stage, and the rest, as they say is history, or has been for the past 8 hours or so.

The voting went as shown below and, of most interest (to me at least) is how the votes broke as candidates were eliminated:

Round 1

Con 837
SNP 797
Lab 682
Green 494
Ind 394
LD 251 (eliminated)

Round 2
Con 904 (67 votes from LDs)
SNP 825 (28 votes from LDs)
Lab 716 (34 votes from LDs)
Green 576 (82 votes from LDs)
Ind 402 (8 votes from LDs) (eliminated)

Round 3
Con 1043 (139 votes from Ind)
SNP 893 (68 votes from Ind)
Lab 745 (29 votes from Ind)
Green 635 (59 votes from Ind) (eliminated)

Round 4
Con 1110 (67 votes from Greens)
SNP 1084 (191 votes from Greens)
Lab 968 (223 votes from Greens) (eliminated)

Round 5
SNP 1368 (284 votes from Labour) – ELECTED
Con 1264 (154 votes from Labour)

So pretty rotten luck for the Tories really but a lot can be learned from the above, albeit from one Council ward with a very low turnout:

The Lib Dems are in line for a proper hiding in next year’s local elections and we can expect defections to continue. Indeed, there is a local by-election in my neck of the woods in London and the Green candidate is, you guessed it, a former Lib Dem.

The Lib Dem vote continues to transfer well to the Greens but does not transfer quite as well as expect to the SNP, only 28 votes going to the Nats in the second round after the Lib Dem candidate was eliminated. I found this quite surprising to be honest. Indeed, it does seem to be the case that the Lib Dems remaining loyal to the Lib Dems are at the more extreme wings of the party – the lentil munchers and the orange bookers (to put it more than a little bit crudely!)

The Labour vote fell more heavily to the Conservatives than I expected too, 284 votes to the left(ish) SNP and a sizeable 154 votes to the right(er) Tories. This is perhaps a sign that more typical lefties and would-be Labour voters have abandoned the red rosette from the first vote and may well symoblise the cross-border identity crisis that Labour is currently suffering from.

The main outcome to take from this by-election though is the simple fact that the SNP won and that Edinburgh Council is safe. However, given the SNP largely stood on an anti-tram platform, does this send the death knell of the project? Is that what Edinburgh voted for yesterday? That’s how I read it, particularly with the financially conservative Conservatives doing so well. Only time will tell of course whether the SNP intends to scrap the project once and for all and, I suspect, that decision may be delayed until after 2012.

NB – James has a longer, deeper and frankly better post on the by-election at STV Edinburgh.

http://local.stv.tv/edinburgh/news/22978-the-edinburgh-city-centre-by-election-what-have-we-learnt/

The most interesting local by-election ever

Aug 18

Posted by James in Elections | 13 Comments

The good people of Edinburgh City Centre are going to the polls today to vote for a replacement for the SNP’s US-bound David Beckett. Not only does this by-election have the potential to overturn the knife-edge SNP-Lib Dem local coalition (wouldn’t it be lovely to have an administration that pulls in one direction?), but it’s a true psephological oddity, as others have observed.

In 2007, this was (as far as I know) Scotland’s only five-way marginal, as follows.

Party 1st preferences 1st prefs share
SNP 1630 20.4%
Conservative 1614 20.2%
Lib Dem 1587 19.9%
Labour 1437 19.0%
Green 1352 18.0%
SSP & others 355 4.4%

It’s a three-member ward, and the SNP, the Tories and the Lib Dems all returned a councillor. Under STV, though, the results were pretty complicated to generate, and it took the elimination of my friend Gavin, the Green candidate, before anyone was elected – the Lib Dem Charles Dundas – with the SNP’s David Beckett elected next, and the Tories’ Joanna Mowat only returned once Labour’s Bill Cunningham was finally eliminated in the last round.

The narrowness runs throughout, though. Gavin was the first of the top five contenders to be eliminated, but at that stage we were just 18 votes behind Labour. If ten of the fourteen SSP voters who put Labour second had gone Green with their second preference, Labour would have lost out earlier and we’d almost certainly have seen a Green elected (and we wouldn’t have had three years of this specific and singularly inept local administration either).

It’s hard to tell from the Council’s own documentation, which (given Labour were eliminated last) doesn’t show how Labour voters’ second preferences would go. But the final page of that document does show the aggregate of where each candidate was across all ballots, and that’s pretty revealing. Of the top five candidates, the Lib Dems were (in 2007, probably not now!) the most transfer-friendly, followed closely by the Greens. Both the Lib Dems and the Greens had more second preferences than first preferences, despite that close tie at the top – none of the other large parties came close. Labour were the third most transfer-friendly, some distance away, clearly ahead of the SNP, with the Tories showing the sharpest drop-off, with barely a third as many people prepared to give them a second preference.

That illustrates why the Lib Dems were elected first despite being third on first prefs, although the other table shows exactly how that happened. Green first preferences (and the hundred or so we’d picked up from the small parties) broke predominantly for the Lib Dems, then the SNP, then Labour. The Tories struggled over the line as the last to elect a councillor because they’re very few people’s second preference party. In fact, Labour had made up to within six and a bit votes of them by the end, but it was just not enough.

Today’s election will be effectively under AV, like all Scottish local by-elections since May 2007. Number crunchers out there who thought May’s referendum disappointment meant we’d never get to test that system – fret not. Since 2007, the SNP’s position has strengthened and the Lib Dems’ weakened, although the SNP have picked a candidate who seems to play very badly at hustings. There’s a local single-issue anti-tram candidate, too, John Carson, but he’ll probably just be a staging point for some SNP and Tory voters before they head home.

I’ll eat a specially-made spaghetti hat if the Lib Dems aren’t the first of the Big Five to be eliminated, and then (as at Holyrood) I’d expect Melanie Main for the Greens to pick up most of their second preferences too. That’d be a nice indication of the accuracy of the idea that Lib Dem voters switched straight to the SNP at Holyrood – my view is that the Lib Dems leaked to Labour on the first vote and Labour leaked to the SNP, plus differential turnout made a massive difference.

My expectation is that either the Tories or Labour will be next to fall – the Tories for not picking up enough second preferences, or Labour for not having won enough first preferences to begin with, with the Tories favourite to go. By this stage we’re down the rabbit-hole and anything can happen, but there’s a logic to Tony’s argument that the Greens have the best chance of beating the SNP. Whoever wins, though, there are definitely prizes for silver and bronze. The last two candidates eliminated will be best placed to win the other two seats elected in May next, so every vote really will count here today.

It’s also during the month when the city has its mind on other things, to say the least, and when many of the electorate will be away on holiday. But it really matters. An SNP or (implausible as it sounds) Lib Dem win would keep the current administration in office. A Green, Labour or Tory win would remove their casting-vote majority.

So there you have it. A complex five-way marginal, conducted under AV, which could determine who runs the nation’s capital for the eight months or so until we do it all again. {proper bias starts here} Best of luck to Melanie Main and the hardest working Green local team I’ve ever seen, who’ve been doorstepping enthusiastically in all weathers – you deserve a fantastic result.

Total Politics Blog Awards 2011

Aug 11

Posted by Jeff in Democracy, Elections, Housekeeping, Sport | 17 Comments

The main beauty of the beauty contest blog rankings is that most bloggers that are involved in them say on the outside that ‘they’re just a bit of fun’ but on the inside they’re boring their eyes into you thinking ‘Vote for me! Vote for me!!’. So, as much as my co-editors will tut, sigh and think a whole lot less of me for this, and now that the Total Politics Blog ranking 2011 voting lines are open, let me just beg of you this, it’s only a bit of fun vote for us!

As electoral tactics go, pleading to lend us your votes simply because we put in a good bit of blood, sweat and tears to keep this blog going, kept the energy up during a lacklustre election campaign and provided a new resource for #sp11 election results (oooh, shiny!), is probably not enough so let me try this instead….. Tom Harris cannot win Scotland’s top blog award for the umpteenth year in a row. End of.

Seriously, this is the West Lothian question turned on its head that we’re dealing with here. Tom’s multi-award winning, platinum ‘And Another Thing’ blog scooped the prize in recent years on the back of predominantly English readers (as Tom, being an MP working in London, understandably tends to stay away from devolved issues). This may be less of an issue now that it is Labour Hame that is in the running, a distinctly Scottish beast, but how would you feel if Mr H was top of the charts once again?

Now, don’t get me wrong, this poll is deeply flawed, it’s even worse than the d’hondt system. What is to stop anyone from creating numerous email addresses and sending in their votes collecting 10points per email? Nothing but the belief in the common decency of our fellow man (and the last few days alone has put paid to that). However, this is the only show in town. Wikio is flawed due to its unfair reward of the group of blogs known affectionately as ‘circle jerk’ (or Lib Dem blogs if you really want to be specific about it) and there is nothing that is going to stop Total Politics from hosting this exercise every year (as I would prefer, at least until they have a decent system in place). So, if there are to be rankings, all blogs might as well get involved, all bloggers might as well aim to be as high as they fairly can and all Scots should be crossing their fingers that MacBloggers are well represented, not to mention that Scotland has a new champion in a few weeks’ time.

There are several Scottish blogs that could topple the lovable rogue from Glasgow South and I like to think that this here is one of them. So, if you don’t do it for you, for us, for your nation or for democratic duty itself, at least do it for whatever satisfaction the sight of Mr Harris slipping down the rankings will provide.

NB – The rules have changed in that you must complete this survey in order to vote.

(Tom, if you’re reading this, don’t be put off; please also vote for us!)

Meanwhile, over in Inverclyde…

Jun 27

Posted by Jeff in Elections, Westminster | 28 Comments

The Inverclyde by-election is almost upon us. The Westminster issues have been explored in depth and the local public can’t wait to do their democratic duty candidates have verbally battered each other and party activists have stuffed letterboxes with literature to a largely uninterested and increasingly frustrated electorate.

The truth is, of course, a by-election makes little difference at a local level and only really helps to shape the narrative for parties at a national level, albeit for only a short period.

So, if that is what is at stake, let’s see how this Thursday might go for each of the stakeholders…

Labour – In one respect, the red hot favourites have everything to lose and, in another respect, they have nothing to lose. The next Westminster election is 4 years away, the next Holyrood election is 5 five years away and Ed Miliband’s renewal of the party has only just begun. Does it matter if Inverclyde goes yellow? For a few days, maybe even a full week, yes, but after that the disappointment will be swept away as the next crisis/disaster/scandal comes along to take its place.

SNP – For the SNP to win this by-election it would be a big surprise, though perhaps not a huge shock since the campaign seems to be going swimmingly and Anne McLaughlin has acquitted herself very well in the tv debates. However, in the media narrative, you are either a winner or a loser so to avoid the latter, the SNP will have to find a way to be the former. Most of the public won’t appreciate how great a result it would be for the Nats to fall within a couple of thousand votes of Labour in this area so some of the gloss might come off Salmond’s veneer from this Thursday, over and above the self-inflicted problems that is.

Conservatives – They will finish third. They may save their deposit. There will be no embarrassment but there will be no reason for cheer either. From a Tory perspective, this by-election will only serve to remind the UK that David Cameron’s message, and the coalition’s at large, is not being heeded north of the border.

Lib Dems – They should finish fourth, they will lose their deposit. The Lib Dems will have given their youthful ‘rising star’ (a phrase used too liberally if you ask me) a good deal of experience and exposure in this contest but, at best, it can only be a disappointing night for them. The disaster would be finishing below UKIP who received 433 votes in 2010, to the Lib Dems’ 5,007. I wouldn’t rule it out, but that may just be heart ruling head.

Greens – There’s not much point in standing in a contest when you know you will lose your deposit but the Scottish Greens will not be discussed during this campaign nor during the results broadcast so they are already ontrack for a disappointing night as they seek to gain a foothold in the political imagination of Scotland.

So there we go, that’s about the long and short of what Thursday evening will mean despite the hours of discussion that anoraks will lap up and the rest of the country will not be listening to. Maybe I’m getting cynical in my old age, maybe the SNP’s arguments are getting through but I would only sit up and take notice of a Scottish by-election if it was for Holyrood rather than Westminster.

Not a bad endorsement of how important the Scottish Parliament has become in 12 short years.

What now for the Scottish Greens?

Jun 21

Posted by The Burd in Elections, Parties | 52 Comments

This time two months ago, Jeff, Malc and I were working ourselves into a lather with prediction-itis.  And getting most of it horribly wrong.  Meanwhile, James was otherwise engaged with proper politicking on the Scottish Greens’ election campaign.  The polls suggested that the Greens would take anything between 5 and 8 per cent of the regional vote:  a big break-through was beckoning, or at least a return to a 2003-sized Holyrood group.

Not that I care to crow – much – but this here burd trumped the Better Nation boys.  Three Green seats I think I said.

As it turned out, the Scottish Greens did well to return with two MSPs intact.  In the face of the SNP juggernaut, it alone managed to hold its vote at regional level and at least stand still in terms of parliamentary arithmetic.  I’m sure it was a huge disappointment to everyone in the Scottish Green Party and to many others but, putting it all in perspective, it wasn’t actually a bad result and it’s hard to see what else the party might have done to turn it into a great one.

But what do they now?  They have reached a fork in the electoral road – which route do they take?

There was much to admire in the Scottish Greens’ election campaign and manifesto, not least their dogged insistence on relatively unfashionable leftist economic policies.  But the outstanding memory I have is how Alex Salmond and the SNP effectively out-greened them.  Sure, on the little stuff – on recycling, on community based issues, the Scottish Greens were solid and worthy.  But on the big stuff – the renewable vision thing, of how it could create a real Scottish economic identity, and jobs – real jobs – in the future, well, the SNP won hands down.

It marked the difference in the level of ambition between the two parties: one aspired to be the next government, the other contented itself with being the home for protest votes.

And the problem with being the erstwhile recipient of the protest vote is that it is fly-by-night.  It cannot be relied upon.  Given its relative youth in party years, this might suffice but it does not provide a solid springboard for increased membership or indeed, representation.

The Scottish Greens have to decide if they wish to become a serious electoral threat.  The right strategy and tactics can pay dividends, as Caroline Lucas and the Brighton Greens can testify.

To replicate their success, the Scottish Greens need to grow and broaden their appeal.  For starters, that means increasing the membership.  The current membership levels are more reminiscent of a club not a fully-fledged political party – with very little effort, the membership could be doubled or even trebled.

Appropriate targeting would encourage members of other parties to switch but also encourage currently non-aligned people to sign up.  And that means getting the demographics right – it’s friends for life the Greens want, not the fairweathered variety.

At the same time, a stronger activist base is required.  The Scottish Greens have a great opportunity to make considerable gains at the local government elections in a year’s time but only if they get candidates in place soon-ish and get out there and work.  In local media, on local issues and on local doorsteps.  There is definitely a gap in the market for a principled and oppositional party to fight hard on local community issues, to offer something different from the mainstream.

Success at this level does not require a national campaign;  instead, the Scottish Greens need to focus relentlessly on winnable wards and concentrate effort in particular councils.  Some high profile gains in certain councils could propel the party into a king-making role (if they want it) and would have much greater impact than a smattering of Green councillors across the board.  To achieve this will involve someone sitting down and reviewing the local scenes, doing the maths and applying the science.  Winning hearts sometimes involves targeting minds.

But before tackling any of this, the Scottish Greens need to think about their party’s personality.  It is currently dominated by their ace in the pack, their co-convenor, Patrick Harvie MSP.  If the SNP can be accused of being a one-man band, what can be said about the Scottish Greens?  Moreover, the party is more of a movement, fluid and free-flowing, yet electoral success requires discipline, structure and format.  Not something that will sit easy with many of its members.

Finally, there is the adherence to principle and refusal to bend to pragmatism.  A lofty, highly laudable position to adapt but realistic?  How attractive is it to the majority of people who try to be Green but do not always succeed? Who aspire to Greendom but know that practicalities often get in the way?  How Green do you have to be to “be a Green”?  At times, it can seem as though rather than engage with the reality of politics, the party is keener on taking an outer stance and sticking to it, no matter what.  At times, it can smack of posture politics.  A refusal to compromise can be seen as dogmatic and downright pig-headed, turning as many voters off as on.

The Scottish Greens can continue on the path they have chosen but that might well mean being resigned to staying as they are:  a small parliamentary presence on the fringes, dependent on a protest vote, that some elections might not swing their way.  But if they wish to move forward, and truly become an electoral force to be reckoned with, they have some thinking to do.  Some shifts, uncomfortable though these might be in the short term, might be required for long term gain.

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