Archive for category Economy

It’s all fun and games until someone gets hurt

The media pundits and the blogocracy have got their regular metaphor of choice for the Budget. It’s high-stakes poker, and you can see why. John Swinney publishes a draft Budget/deals, then each party decides how to respond/play their hand. Infamously, in 2009 the SNP thought we weren’t committed to the insulation scheme being universal/were bluffing, and when the cards were shown/buttons pressed, it turned out we weren’t. Pocket rockets.

The analogies continue this time, although I can’t work out what the poker equivalent is for the Tories siding early with the SNP and supporting what’s effectively an Osbornomics cuts Budget: suggestions welcome. Equally, by voting against such an ideological Budget at Stage One the Greens have apparently folded early. It doesn’t feel like that to me.

It’s a flawed and misleading metaphor, and its time has passed. Perhaps in previous years, with the overall pot rising, that might have been a justifiable way to see the new minority-Parliament Budget process. But not now.

Now the decision before Parliament is whether or not to sanction about £1.3bn worth of cuts. Even if, like the SNP and the other opposition parties, you’re not prepared to take a serious look at raising revenue (despite the options we’ve already proposed: 1, 2, 3 etc), that’s what a Yes or an Abstain means. There’s a lot of ink spilt about this being a centre-left country, but the reality is that they’re four of a kind on the revenue vs cuts issue.

But it’s not about the men and Margo around the table. As per my comment elsewhere, the parties are not playing a petty game to determine who gets a good headline, or they should not be. It’s a year of Scotland’s public services, services relied on by the vulnerable, the ill, the homeless, the working poor and the unemployed. These are the most crucial set of decisions made in Scottish politics. John’s chosen a Tory budget, and that’s the real reason the Tories were in the bag before it began. They’re not playing a good hand, they’re recognising one of their own. A pair, if you like.

It was a poker post on the first class Burdz Eye View that got me thinking about this. She’s not alone – the CalMerc followed with one the next day, and I’m sure I’ve used the metaphor myself before. Here’s the Herald in 2008, and there’s a story missing here which suggests the Sun actually posted Budget coverage to poker.thesun.co.uk

It’s compellingly simple. John, Andy, Derek, Jeremy, Patrick and Margo are the players. The aim of the game for the opposition parties, the argument goes, is to walk away with a good headline and a nice wee pot while the banker runs the game. It’s not even how it works – by the time there’s a full house in the Chamber the decisions have (generally) been taken as a result of a series of bilaterals. If you’re determined to find a games analogy, it’s more like Bohnanza, except it’s always the Minister’s turn.

The more the media and the bloggers treat it as a game, any game, the less seriously the real-life impacts of these cuts on communities across Scotland get taken. There are no points of principle at stake in poker – it’s just about your hand, how you play it and what you can take from the others. There’s a principle here, though – do we believe in public services or do we want lower taxes?

It all comes down to the Lib Dems now, they say. The Greens should step straight in and get a good deal, I’m told. Sure, we could no doubt negotiate for a little here or there, but it’d be set against those thousands of job losses, the thousands of vulnerable Scots who rely on local services currently under threat so John Swinney and the Tories can work together. If the SNP would rather try again (that’s perhaps the most important article on this year’s Budget) and find a centre-left consensus and look beyond the retailers levy to limit the cuts, we’ll be happy to talk, but any left party that backed this particular Budget in these circumstances would be a busted flush, pure and simple.

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Tesco Tax = Budget Value

When John Swinney announced his draft budget last year he didn’t have many rabbits to pull out of the hat, but he did manage to pull a chicken from the shopping trolley. The announcement that an extra charge would be levied on companies with a rateable value greater than £750k seemed to come as something of a surprise to the public and to the retail industry. It wasn’t long before it was dubbed the ‘Tesco Tax’ and formed one of the main dividing lines between the Government and opposition parties.

For me, trying to balance Scotland’s economy and maximise jobs in these tough times means that those with the deepest pockets need to pay a bit more. This could mean higher income tax rates for top earners, a super-tax for energy companies that make super-profits and targetting companies like House of Fraser, Asda and Tesco, the latter of which makes £6k profit a minute. Of course, the Scottish Government only has powers to implement one of the above so it is little surprise that the Finance Secretary has taken this option.

However, like so many last ditch challenges, the legality of the situation has been called into question.

The challenge seems to be that a Government cannot employ favouritism in the system. That is, the SNP cannot penalise the larger companies without equally penalising the smaller companies. I can’t say I fully understand this problem in light of arrangements that already exist in the system.

The scrapping of rates for small business in Scotland is a prime example of ‘favouritism’ and, working the other way, so too are Westminster’s plans to make rich students in England and Wales pay much higher fees than other students. Replace Hooray Henry for Tesco and you’ve got the same situation. I don’t see how the Tesco Tax can flout EU rules if the two-tier tuition fees don’t.

But how can one comment on the suggestion that a Government policy breaks an EU law and how can clarity be assured before a vote takes place on the matter? You probably can’t but opposition parties still have the ideal fodder to hide behind if they want to vote against (remember minimum pricing and Local Income Tax were both vaguely mooted as breaking EU rules before being voted down)

At the end of the day though, this aim to raise £30m from the 0.1% richest companies surely won’t be seen as a losing approach for the Scottish Government and opposition parties will find themselves in a difficult position of backing large, profitable companies while still claiming to be on the side of those who are struggling.

An EU legal ruling may help to save their bacon and, well, every little helps but progress needs to be made this week if a decent budget is to be passed by Parliament.

The myth of the “Penny For Scotland fiasco”

Some blue penniesDid the SNP’s Penny For Scotland cost them the 1999 election? Eddie Barnes seems to think so, in an otherwise fair blog post on the Steamie. Sure, it was their most notable campaign slogan, and sure, they definitely didn’t win in 1999.

But was that what the 1999 election was about? I’d argue that 1999 was primarily about the mere fact of the Parliament itself. New Labour were still in honeymoon mode down south, boom and bust was supposedly over forever, and voting for a Parliament itself was the exciting political step for most of the electorate.

In 1997 45.5% of Scotland had voted Labour and just 22% SNP. Just two years later, following the supposedly disastrous Penny For Scotland campaign, the SNP were up 5% on that on the list and up nearly 7% in the constituencies.

In 2002, under John Swinney, they dropped the policy because Labour were then raising NI and so circumstances had changed. Understandable logic (and the David McLetchie quote in there is still fresh, incidentally). And this decision was surely in line with the smart advice that people are lying when they tell pollsters they want better services and are prepared to pay for them?

Yet the 2003 result was much worse for the new-style low-tax (or steady-tax, they would say) SNP. Their vote fell on the 1999 level by 5% in the constituencies and 6.5% on the list. Would it have gone better for them with a retained Penny For Scotland? Who knows. That’s the problem with “political science”: it’s not science, there are no repeatable experiments, and no controls.

Furthermore, even if they’d got a better result in 2003 than 1999 it wouldn’t have proved the point. Scientists and skeptic bloggers always remind us not to confuse correlation with causation. Ice-cream sales don’t increase deaths by drowning, nor do firefighters increase the size of fires. The same is true in politics. The factors are much more complicated and the temptation to fall back on explanations that suit pre-existing perspectives is strong.

Was the change of SNP leadership not more of a reason for the 2003 switch away from them? Or perhaps the view that Labour wouldn’t be radical in office and the SNP couldn’t replace them led to the support for Greens and Socialists. And their narrow 2007 success was surely more about a credible alternative government in waiting (and FM in waiting) taking on a tired administration, one tied to the increasingly unpopular Blair government. It certainly wasn’t because they still weren’t proposing a Penny For Scotland and that fact had taken four years to sink in.

Eddie suggests we Greens won’t get “a thumping vote of support” for identifying cuts we wouldn’t make and progressive ways to boost Scotland’s budget. Maybe he’ll be proved right, but if no other party in Parliament were to put a practical alternative to the cuts within Holyrood’s existing powers into their manifesto then the Scottish electorate would be looking forward to a much narrower choice. Whatever 2003 shows, more than a third of the electorate were at least ready to back parties with positions to the left of where the SNP (and Labour) are now.

An unavoidable tax at an unfortunate time

It is telling that Labour leader Ed Miliband’s hollow argument against VAT rising to 20% from midnight tonight extends only to families being hit and an alternative-free assurance that he wouldn’t make the same decision in David Cameron’s position. Yes there is a need for the entirety of the coalition’s policies being tested for the existence of progressive merits but, in isolation, there is little to argue against a VAT-rise.

Ed calls it “the wrong tax at the wrong time”. He of course has to take an opposition stance at these times but nonetheless this soundbite seems a little too strong. What is the “right” tax and, given our record deficit, when is the “right” time? With Corporation tax decreasing and income tax rates staying resolutely in place due to our Governments past and present being too timid and too ideologically stuck to alter them, it was always going to be VAT that had to move.

Noone enjoys paying tax but a misdirection created by something rising is the suggestion that the previous level, the status quo if you will, is more likely to be correct because it is what people are used to. However, a VAT rate of 20% brings the UK more in line with rates in Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany and Italy and still a good 3-5% below Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark. Maybe we’ve had too good sales rates for too long a time and, to coin a few phrases, ‘we could not go on like this’, ‘we’re all in this together’ and ‘are you thinking what Merkel/Sarkozy/Berlusconi’s thinking’.

It is quite clear that had Labour won a fourth term, with or without coalition assistance from the Lib Dems, that VAT would have increased at some point during this parliamentary term. There are simply too few other palatable measures that Gordon Brown and/or Ed Miliband had at their disposal to plug the deficit. This likelihood is further compounded by the lack of explanation in the Labour manifesto as to how the party aimed to fulfil its promise of halving the(ir) deficit.

I don’t like the sight of students having to triple the amount of fees they pay each year, I don’t like the sight of charities having to close down at a worrying rate and I don’t like corporation tax decreasing when super-profits still exist for numerous British companies out there, but the nececssity of an increase in VAT when your finances are in such a parlous state, without cutting jobs, is difficult to avoid.

(And yes, this all puts the Liberal Democrats in yet another tight spot but there is a difference between overpromising/underdelivering and bringing in a policy that is actually quite reckless. Thankfully it is only the former, this time)

A Scottish Corporation Tax

I am thoroughly enjoying the ongoing debate over what powers a devolved Scotland should and should not have, particularly the discussion surrounding Corporation Tax given how crucial and fragile the economy is at the moment, north and south of the border. Former BOS Chief Executive Sir Peter Burt is the latest to lend his opinion on the matter and it is pleasing to see that he is backing Scotland to set its own rates.

Opponents to the suggestion that Scotland should set its own corporation taxes tend to immediately point to Ireland and the supposed result of the low 12.5% that was, and still is, applied to companies over in the Republic. It is classic ‘post hoc ergo propter hoc’ philosophy to suggest that just because Ireland had a low Corporation Tax before it sunk into a deep recession, then that said tax was a significant driver for the current malaise. It was, of course, the banks’ misreading of risk and heavily-impaired real estate assets that were the main problems.

There is of course a risk that a race to the bottom takes place of Scotland is allowed to set lower rates. Ireland had a 12.5% tax rate to kick-start the Celtic Tiger, Scotland then brings in 12.5% to drive its economy ahead of the rest of the UK and then England, Wales and Northern Ireland feel they have to follow suit and suddenly it’s a Sterling vs Euro issue that tears the continent in two. A scorched earth tax policy with all players too cautious and too poor to move back to a correct level.

Nonetheless, I say Scotland’s needs and opportunities make it worth going for and the beautiful diversity of these shared isles can once again be harnessed to maximise the Laffer Curve for the UK’s benefit. If George Osborne’s preferred 24% is closer to the correct figure for tax rates then it will quickly become clear when Scotland has an anaemic 12.5% and few new jobs to show for it. We already have a drive towards nuclear power down South and a drive towards renewables up North, we have a drive towards high fees down South and a continued drive towards state-funded education up North so we can continue this devolution adventure and experimental settlement by maintaining tax rates as they stand in England and Wales but reduce rates in Scotland to ascertain what that flexibility will do for the UK and then, if necessary, act accordingly, either through rUK following suit or Scotland lifting rates higher again with the strategy deemed unsuccessful.

As things stand, why would a large company base itself in Scotland when it can be snugly located outside London with the vast travel options that Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted provide? RBS has long been expected to pack up and head South, it is even sneered at in the City for having its base up in ‘Jockland’. Such attitudes don’t shift easily and will regrettably deter emerging entities from basing themselves in Scotland. Furthermore, the destinations that Glasgow and Edinburgh from its airports offer pale in comparison to the capital cities of small-medium sized capital cities across Europe. Scotland is uniquely disadvantaged by its position within Europe and its situation as a state within a country and some sort of flexible solution is required within the devolution settlement. The Scottish Government cannot be expected to grow the economy, and blamed for not doing so, when it doesn’t have the necessary tools and does not have oil revenues to use to its competitive advantage.

Of course, were the eminently sensible policy of fiscal autonomy to be granted through this coming Scotland Bill then devolving Corporation Taxes would come with it but it looks increasingly unlikely that the federal Liberal Democrats will leverage its position within the coalition. A solution to the current constitutional imbalance and problems with the Barnett Formula will continue it seems.

It is difficult to have a low tax nation with a large public sector and a relatively high minimum wage but that is a balancing act that Scotland can learn, and achieve, in time. There is more to gain from a distinctly Scottish business market setting distinctly Scottish rates of corporation tax than there is to lose.

Scotland can reap similar benefits as Ireland while being wise to any potential pitfalls. Lower taxes, higher growth, more jobs and a prising away of the Scottish nation from the distant cash cow of the City of London. Even former RBS chiefs agree it is a good idea. We just need a way to Make It Happen.