Archive for category Constitution

Referring to the People

In China we are currently in the Year of the Dragon (EDIT – actually, it is the Year of the Tiger) until February at least, when it becomes the Year of the Rabbit which is (no longer) appropriate, since I’m going to talk about Wales, whose symbol is Y Ddraig Goch (It was a good idea when it worked – honest).  But in Wales, this year will not be the year of the dragon, tiger or the rabbit: it will be, in pure geekery terms, the Year of the Referendum(s).

Alongside the excitement that is the AV Referendum(!), the Welsh public will also get the opportunity to vote in a referendum to extend the powers of the National Assembly for Wales.  Or rather, they will get a chance to vote to confirm the extension of powers of the NAfW, since those powers were already granted to the Assembly, but only through a system whereby they had to ask for each power individually, and the granting of all primary legislative powers in one go had to be verified by referendum as stipulated in the Government of Wales Act 2006… you know what, it is fairly complex – if you are incredibly interested, in the process, have a read of the Electoral Commission stuff on it.  Or ask someone from Wales, who may or may not be able to help you.

Anyway, so in Wales they have two referendums in a little over two months, while the rest of us have one in May.  Which brings me to my point – in a representative democracy, when we give over our right to make decisions by electing someone to make them for us, why have referendums in the first place?

Apparently, I wasn’t the only one asking this.  The House of Lords convened a Select Committee on the Constitution to investigate “the role of referendums in the UK’s constitutional experience” and produced a report (12th Report of Session 2009-10 entitled “Referendums in the UK”, pdf here).  In it, they listed the 9 large-scale referendums constituting the “modern history of referendums in the UK”:

1973 – NI Sovereignty
1975 – EEC Membership
1979 – Scottish devolution
1979 – Welsh devolution
1997 – Scottish devolution
1997 – Welsh devolution
1998 – Devolution for London
1998 – Good Friday Agreement
2004 – North-East Devolution

As you can see from the list above, prior to Labour winning power in 1997, there had been only 4 referendums, while the subject of each referendum (with the exception of the Good-Friday Agreement, though you can make a case for it as well) is related to the constitutional future of the UK or a component part thereof.

The House of Lords Select Committee weighed the evidence for and against referendums:

For:

  • Enhances the democratic process
  • Difficult to reverse if public support
  • Can “settle” an issue
  • Can be a “protective device” (safeguard against controversy)
  • Promotes voter education
  • Enhances citizen engagement
  • Popular with voters
  • Complements representative democracy

Against:

  • It is a “tactical device”
  • Dominated by elite groups
  • Have a damaging effect on minority groups
  • It is a “conservative device” (block on progress)
  • Do not “settle” an issue
  • Over-simplify issues
  • Tend not to be about issue in question
  • Costly
  • Undermine representative democracy

Given the balance of evidence the Committee took from experts in the field, academics, constitutional lawyers from across the world and experienced referendum actors, they concluded that there are “significant drawbacks to the use of referendums” and particularly regrettable was “the ad hoc manner in which referendums have been used, often as a tactical device, by the government of the day.”

However, they relented slightly by stating that “if referendums are to be used, they are most appropriately used in relation to fundamental constitutional issues”.  They provided several examples, two of which are relevant to this post: a referendum to change the electoral system for the House of Commons and “for any of the nations of the UK to secede from the Union”.

So, we’re having one of those (the changing the electoral system one, in case you’ve missed it) but we’ve been denied the latter by a) unionist parties not letting the Scottish Government have a referendum or b) the SNP being too scared to bring forward their bill (depending what side of the fence you are sitting on).  In Wales, they’ll have a referendum (which was part of the amendment to devolution that was the Government of Wales Act 2006) in order to amend devolution further (and I’ll probably write more about that nearer the time) so that fits with the using referendums in relation to “fundamental constitutional issues” idea.

I guess my point is this.  A committee of one of the Houses of Parliament at Westminster has indicated its preference for holding a referendum in cases where a constituent nation is considering secession.  Thus, while not legally watertight or providing the Scottish Parliament with the competence to legislate in this area, I think it indicates that, should a Scottish Government pass a bill at Holyrood calling for a referendum on secession from the union, the UK Parliament may have given itself a problem in denying such a plebiscite.  Though the report itself was only advisory, and conducted under the previous government, so perhaps not.  For constitutional geeks like me (and, if you have gotten this far in the post, probably you too) the report is worth a read.

Cameroons for Independence?

Look, I know I’ll get shouted down for posting this incredibly silly suggestion, but bear with me until the end of the piece before laughing/ calling me names.

The Conservatives should come out in favour of independence for Scotland.

Now I realise a couple of things here.  Firstly, the name – the Conservative and Unionist party suggests this might be an issue.  Except that the union referred to in that title is between Britain and Ireland, and that isn’t exactly a current issue.  And of course the Scottish Nationalist movement might not exactly take too kindly to an unpopular, right of centre party moving in on their ground – its not exactly like there is massive support for the Conservatives in Scotland, and this policy isn’t likely to help that much.

But think outside the box a little bit.  I’m not talking about a Scottish Conservative policy.  I’m talking about a David Cameron idea, a UK-wide policy shift for the party.  And that, in pragmatic, electoral terms makes lots of sense.

Put it like this – the Conservatives won the sum total of ONE seat in Scotland in last year’s general election. One.  Out of 59.  That means they need to win 58 more seats in England and Wales than the combined opposition parties to win a UK-wide election.  Labour, on the other hand, rely on MPs from Scotland and Wales for majorities – think the top-up tuition fees vote or foundation hospitals.

Again, with the maths, but there are 533 English MPs, of which 298 are Conservative, a comfortable governing majority of 32 at the moment.  Add in Wales (40 MPs, 8 Conservatives) and Northern Ireland (18 MPs, 0 Conservatives) and the picture is slightly different – 591 MPs (excluding Scotland’s 59) of which 306 are Conservative MPs, a governing majority of 10.  Still workable, but much tighter.  It’s only when you add in Scotland’s sole Conservative MP (and the remaining 58 MPs from Scotland from other parties) that the Conservative majority disappears.

So maybe if Dave wants to go it alone and ditch Nick and Vince, all he has to do is support Scottish independence.

Thumbs up if you support the motion...

Of course its crazy – and it likely will never happen.  But I’m pretty sure than, in an independent Scotland, the Scottish Conservative party would actually do better, given there would be less inclination to associate them with the remainder of the UK Conservatives – and indeed, I think there is a continuing “I can’t vote Tory, they’re the party of Thatcher” mentality.  But if they were no longer the party of Thatcher… then perhaps they’d have more success.

So… it would help PM David Cameron consolidate his and his party’s position as potentially the best placed to win a majority of seats in the rest of the UK, and it’d help the Scottish Conservatives get themselves some distance from their history, and perhaps people would start to put the “Party of Thatcher” stuff behind them.  Win-win?

It’s just a crazy idea.  But it might just work…

Unicameralism Rules OK

There are two groups, not entirely mutually exclusive, who are desperately trying to ensure that the UK clings on to two relics of a bygone age – the First Past the Post Westminster voting system and the House of Lords. When defended in isolation, the arguments can sound persuasive but when defended together, it becomes increasingly clear that each entity could quite easily cancel each other out and the country wouldn’t miss them. Quite the contrary.

James talked in his last post of the four different groups competing in the AV referendum but I would like to suggest a fifth – those who would vote against First Past the Post in order to assist in doing away with the House of Lords.

The most common defence of the House of Lords is that there is nothing cheaper to take its place. Those who claim this are wrong. Having nothing in its place is considerably cheaper, 100% cheaper in fact.

After all, why do we need a House of Lords? Just because it dates back to the 1300s and we’ve gotten used to it, it doesn’t mean we still can’t just pull the plug on the arrangement despite its supposed merits:

The House of Lords as an Upper Chamber has the primary purpose of scrutinising Legislation proposed by the Lower House through the form of debate and through proposing amendments to legislation. Governments in recent years have used the Upper House as a variant of the Select Committee process to finalise legislation before presentation for Royal Assent.

The House of Commons already scrutinises legislation and I daresay that Select Committees do a more effective job of being a, well, Select Committee. For those concerned about this halving of our political Houses, don’t worry, there is already a term for this state of having one parliamentary chamber – the delightful Unicameralism. Were the UK to drop the House of Lords then it would be joining such appealing company as Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, Finland, Singapore and Norway (ok, and China, Iraq and Iran. What’s your point?). Devolved Scotland, if you want to see it that way, is also already practising Unicameralism.

The next argument advanced by the grey and the crusty who wish to save the Lords may then be that a Government with an unassailable majority should not wield such power, which leads me on to the next part of this two-step solution – introducing proper PR.

Were we to have proper PR in the UK then we wouldn’t need unelected Lords to check the power of our Governments as the existence of eight or nine political parties, all negotiating and compromising with each other with an engaged public watching on, would ensure that controls were inherent in the system to ensure legislation was always sufficiently refined.

Obviously we don’t have the option of full PR on our badly limited voting slip on May 5th but there is surely little doubt that voting Yes to AV is a more positive statement that one wants a more proportional voting system than voting No or abstaining.

There is even an incentive for the many proponents of independence to involve themselves in this idea of pushing for Unicameralism supported by PR through voting for AV. A stronger Yes vote north of the border on May 5th would show that Scotland is more open to the idea of a proportional system than our southern neighbours, just one more example of a more ‘leftie’ philosophy that makes us distinct within the United Kingdom. A ‘Yes’ majority in Scotland and a ‘No’ majority in the rest of the UK would be enough on its own to make many Scots wonder why we don’t just take such decisions for ourselves when Scottish majority opinion is at odds with UK majority opinion, a feeling that will surely already be incubating along after the General Election result.

We don’t really know who our peers are and we don’t know what they do but their position is protected by an out of date First Past the Post system that is patently unfair and undemocratic. MPs and Lords alike talk a good game about House of Lords reform but the reality is that, at most, only 7 people out of the 1,391 Members of both Houses are arguing for scrapping that second Chamber – SNP and Green MPs.

To become Unicameralists we would need to work around a unilateral Cameron, a duplicitous Clegg and wait out a long election-free 4.5 years that the current coalition awarded itself. Voting Yes to AV is the best way to consign historic practices to history.

The Inevitable Conclusion of Devolution

I’m surprised it has taken this long.

This week the Welsh Assembly’s decided to allow Welsh Universities to charge up to £9,000 for tuition fees (as UK Government policy) but pay the difference between that which students currently pay (£3,290) and whatever the university charges – but for Welsh students only. The key points of the policy are:

  • Welsh universities will be allowed to raise their fees up to £9,000 from 2012-13.
  • All Welsh students living in Wales will get a grant to subsidise the difference between the current and future fee (anywhere up to £5,710 depending on what the university charges).
  • This also applies to Welsh students who study in England, Scotland or Northern Ireland, as well as those who stay in Wales.
  • This will be paid for by the Welsh Assembly Government.

Naturally, accusations of racism are at play.  The Daily Mail excels, suggesting “apartheid” on fees and arguing that students were being “punished for being English.”

Now, they may have a point. One definition of “racism” (which I believe their newspaper front page used to describe the policy) is “Discrimination or prejudice based on race.” In this case, that would, I suggest, apply. Welsh students will receive the grant and they’ll take no real hit on the pocket. English students – who may be studying at the same university, taking the same courses, sitting next to the Welsh students paying £3,290 – will not be eligible.  That is discrimination on the basis of nationality.

However, where I think the Daily Mail is wrong is the fact that they blame the Welsh Assembly Government for this. Devolution was intended to allow Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to govern themselves in the areas devolved to them, and to make distinctive policy in those areas where they disagreed with what the UK Government decided. And we’ve already seen examples of it. Scotland, for example, led the UK on the smoking ban, introduced Free Personal Care for the elderly and changed university fees to a graduate endowment, latterly scrapping that as well. Wales has introduced free prescription charges – a move which Scotland will follow – and now decided that universities should not cost their students more than they do at the moment. In short – devolution has done as intended. It has allowed the devolved nations to operate differently in areas where they have legislative powers, to develop distinctive policies for their respective populations and, more recently, to protect their population from the upcoming rise in tuition fees.

But that’s not the only reason I don’t think they can be blamed. Take a look at the House of Commons. It is a UK Parliament, it is true, but only 59 MPs come from Scotland, 40 from Wales and 18 from Northern Ireland. Which means there are 533 English MPs in the House of Commons (650 total seats minus 117 non-English seats).  Of those 533, the Conservatives hold 298 – a majority over the opposition English MPs on its own. When you add the 43 English Lib Dem MPs, there are 341 English MPs on the government benches against 192 in opposition (191 Labour plus 1 Green).

The point I’m making? Even if all of the MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (including government MPs – 12 Conservatives/ Lib Dems from Scotland, 11 from Wales) vote against the tuition fees rise, it will still be carried by ENGLISH MPs voting for it. This isn’t foundation hospitals or the original top-up tuition fees debate, where the Labour government relied on their Scottish and Welsh MPs to vote in favour of something which was only to be implemented in England. English MPs are voting for this – and will carry it themselves.

So let’s not blame the Welsh Assembly Government or the Scottish Government for deciding to do something which will benefit their own students. This is the natural and inevitable conclusion of devolution – different policies for different parts of the UK. I’m honestly surprised it has taken the English this long to realise that they are getting shafted by the system.

But its not of our doing – so don’t blame us.

PS – Also – don’t blame me for the map above not including Northern Ireland and including Cornwall. I thought it demonstrated my point pretty well but I’m not responsible for drawing it!

A nation rejoices: more powers not to use!

The unicorn carrying the SaltireToday had a big red-pen circle round it in the SNP’s schedule when they were new to office – it’s the day the referendum would have been held if Parliament had let them Bring It On! Instead, it’s Westminster that’s making the running on more powers for Scotland, and today Michael Moore (with or without Nick Clegg) will come to Edinburgh to announce what we already know – there will a Scotland Bill to legislate most of the Calman recommendations into effect.

The SNP are palpably furious to have lost the initiative to London on the final St Andrew’s Day before the election, and today is indeed significant, although largely in news management terms. Like the National Conversation, Calman was set up to listen only to one side of the argument, and the end product has been suitably lacking in radicalism.

As an anorak, the title annoys me too. If it passes, The Scotland Bill will become The Scotland Act. We already have a Scotland Act, and it’s a pretty historic document wherever you stand on the constitutional question. It’s the only legislation where any proportion of the public might just know the first memorable line: “There shall be a Scottish Parliament”. Now we’ll have to distinguish them by date, which will aggravate the anorak quotient of these future discussions.

But I digress. The plans are to devolve an odd mix powers to Holyrood. Aside from the tax question, the newsworthy items seem to be regulation of airguns, drink drive limits and speed limits. For some reason the media aren’t exercised by the proposals to split Stage 3 consideration of legislation into Stage 3 and Stage 4, the first for amendments and the second for final approval.

Now, there’s a decent consensus against free access to airguns, against drink driving, and Parliament would probably back statutory 20 mile an hour residential zones. Once changes in those areas have been made, though, what remains to do? Where’s the radical change the Coalition tell us Calman will bring? What can we do differently?

Of course, the main thrust is those tax powers, even though the aggregates levy and air passenger duty are not coming to Scotland just yet. Central to those is the idea that the equivalent of 10p is lopped off all the income tax bands in Scotland, and Holyrood then has to take an active decision about how much to raise.

Personally, I don’t think there’s any political difference between simply letting the existing Scottish Variable Rate remain unused, were it still available for use, and a 2015 post-Calman Scottish Government simply sticking 10p on tax so the bands remain the same as the rest of the UK. The bands, allowances and thresholds won’t be subject to change, and the Commission claims “this is because income tax is a progressive tax”. If that was the real reason, Holyrood would simply have been forbidden from making the bands less progressive: given the way Scotland votes, the suspicion has to be that the Grand Coalition (in the case, including Labour) don’t want Holyrood to be able to make the tax system more progressive.

The fact that the upper rates can be changed in lock-step does mark a limited improvement on the Scottish Variable Rate. It would ensure that income tax increases continue to be progressive above the £44,875 level at which the top rate kicks in, unlike the tax powers voted for in 1997 which are progressive only up to that point. So here’s the open question to Scotland’s political parties. If you had the Calman powers now, would you consider using them to limit the cuts?

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