Archive for category Constitution

John Redwood dips his toe into the independence debate

For all that the constitution is one of David Cameron’s top priorities, it is odd that not many Conservative MPs seem overly willing to discuss it. Even John Redwood’s blog post this morning takes a distinctly, not to mention disappointingly, non-opinionated view of the matter. John is really just raising a few points up the flagpole to see in which way commenters salute them and, to be fair, a very decent debate followed in the 90+ comments.

So, in the absence of much else exercising my blogging brain these days, I thought I’d also take up the challenge:

1. Should the people of the rest of the UK have any say in the independence of Scotland?

Definitely not. This argument has flummoxed me for quite some time as it is often raised by otherwise sensible people. If England wishes to be independent from the UK, then it is for England to decide. It is the same for Wales, Northern Ireland and, yes, Scotland. Of course negotiations will have an impact on the rest of the UK and, had there been a need for two referendums (as Michael Moore recently suggested and I, more recently, backed him on), then the whole of the UK could arguably have a referendum on the matter but if, as seems very likely, the referendum comes down to a straight Yes/No before detailed negotiations begin, then it is a matter for Scots only to decide.

2. Should there be any financial consequences from Scotland gaining more independence to make her own decisions within the Union settlement?

Against the waves of vagueness that the good ship Independence battles through with each week that rolls on by, this one really is up and over the sides. What exactly the question is getting at we can but wonder.

I suspect there would be financial consequences to Scotland gaining more independence within the Union but, to second-guess what John is getting at, one would hope they wouldn’t be unnecessarily punitive. One does have to wonder if Scotland becoming more independent has subtle detriments. When Lord Green, the UK’s first Trade Minister, is touting for business across the globe on the country’s behalf, he may well have Gillingham in mind ahead of Glasgow, Aberystwyth ahead of Aberdeen and Southampton ahead of Selkirk. It is understandable that those working under the auspices of the Westminster Government don’t even have Scotland in the back of their mind when it comes to British concerns that, under our constitution, should still be fairly considered in a UK context as a whole.

So to answer John’s question, although there probably will be financial consequences for Scotland pulling away on its own, over and above Calman or fiscal autonomy, there shouldn’t be.

3. Should Scotland have more powers to raise her own taxation?

Absolutely. A Parliament that does not have powers to raise its own taxation will inevitably run into problems in terms of democratic accountability and responsible spending. For a long time I had regarded the Scottish Parliament as just another block of Westminster spending, like the NHS, Defra, welfare or what have you. However, I have slowly, too slowly, realised that this is inapplicable and the Scottish Parliament really is a special case when it comes to raising its own budget. There may end up being elected health chiefs, police chiefs and even headmasters in England and Wales before too long but there is still no direct comparison to be made to the Scottish Parliament.

The expense and investment that goes into the NHS, Defra, welfare etc are as a direct result of decisions and policies taken by a Government that has been democratically voted into place. Holyrood spending is dictated by a different party (or parties) to those that were voted into place in Scotland and this leads to problems as we are seeing now where Westminster policy is university fees and Holyrood policy is free tuition, Westminster policy is increased private sector involvement in the NHS and Holyrood policy is to keep health public. That divergence when spending limits are so inextricably linked between the Parliaments is an ultimately unworkable situation.

If a Conservative Government wants to end the supposed ‘grudge and grievance’ politics, then it needs to sever the link between right-of-centre Westminster decisions and left-of-centre Holyrood spending constraints. Indeed, this would end the regular ‘grudge and grievance’ that heads north, the supposed charge that Scotland subsidises the rest of the UK. Let’s put it to the test if both sides of the border feel that strongly about it.

4. Do you support the Union or do you think it is time for break-up as the SNP suggest?

Well, I’m shimmying onto the fence here. I’ll make sure I’m in Scotland for the vote and I am currently minded to vote Yes but, as has been pointed out on this blog before (predominantly by James), the lack of detail and blatant gamesmanship surrounding the SNP’s primary proposal may push me back into a No space as there may ultimately be too much to risk by going for it alone, as fun and as fulfilling an adventure it would be.

So that’s my fourpence worth. I guess these four questions could form some sort of meme, not that I’m going to pick anyone out but feel free to answer John’s questions in the comments (or on your blogs). Maybe I should tag Mr Redwood MP himself since (1) he never answered his own questions and (2) he’s significantly closer to the decision-making than any of us here…!

Ideology trumps sovereignty? (part 1)

A two-part guest post from Stuart Winton of Planet Politics.  It was a lengthy post so we got him to split it in two, and we’ll post up the second part of it in a few days.

If nothing else then Scottish independence is surely about sovereignty. Thus the intention is to repatriate powers currently reserved to Westminster, such as the ability to raise taxes, to borrow when necessary to finance public spending and regarding macroeconomic policy more generally.

However, the recent debate about the definition and limits of ideas like devo-max, independence-lite and confedaralism demonstrates the difficulty with the concept of sovereignty; for example, in what looks like the SNP’s vision of an independent Scotland foreign affairs might remain partly at the UK level, while monetary policy would be decided either by the Bank of England or the European Central Bank, whereas the issue of national defence seems particularly vexed.

The currency issue seems especially difficult as regards the questions of independence and sovereignty. For some time the SNP seemed committed to the single European currency, but for obvious reasons the retention of sterling now seems to be the preferred option, in the medium-term at least. But that Alex Salmond could even contemplate an independent Scotland joining the euro – with interest rates decided in Frankfurt – underlines the paradoxical nature of so-called sovereignty, not to mention the notion of independence generally. If monetary policy decided in London primarily for economic conditions in the south-east of England is considered inappropriate – the original rationale for a Scottish currency – then surely interest rates decided primarily for France and Germany would be even less palatable for Scotland, as several of the smaller eurozone member states have found to their cost in the difficult economic climate of recent years.

By the same token, Mr Salmond’s recent objection to aspects of human rights law being decided by the Supreme Court in London – and thus a perceived threat to the independence of the Scottish legal system – seems somewhat ironic in view of the alternative, as outlined by a Scottish Government spokesman: “The issue is not human rights – it is that the distinct Scottish legal system should have direct access to the European Court in Strasbourg just like every other legal jurisdiction”.

The irony of the latter point seemed lost on one contributor to the Herald’s website, for example, who talked of “Unionist jackboots trampling Scottish Jurisprudence” and opined: “It is about the core foundation of the Scottish state and its senior judges being humiliated and deemed inferior by a London court”.

Slightly more recently – and less luridly – justice secretary Kenny MacAskill claimed the Supreme Court judges’ knowledge of Scots law was limited to what they might pick up on a trip to the Edinburgh Festival, while paradoxically stating: “We want Scotland to be able to deal directly with Strasbourg. At the present moment we cannot do that. What we want is to be in the same situation as other countries. We want to be a normal European country.” Similarly, in a subsequent Newsnicht interview the first minister seemed all over the place regarding judicial sovereignty, slamming the “aggressive” intervention by judges in “another country”, while extolling the virtues of the European court and highlighting the fact that the European Convention on Human Rights was authored by a Scot.

But of course we are represented in Europe as a constituent part of the UK, so to that extent Scotland is not a ‘normal’ European country, and there’s little to suggest that the Scottish people desire otherwise. Clearly all this could change with independence, but the SNP Government doesn’t want a referendum on the issue at present, thus to that extent Mr MacAskill should either bring it on (to coin a phrase!) or get on with using the currently devolved powers to run the country.

And it’s not as if Messrs Salmond and MacAskill’s obvious chagrin at the Supreme Court’s decision per se was likely to have been assuaged by having the issue decided by the European Court of Human Rights, which learned opinion seems to suggest would take a similarly liberal approach to interpreting the human rights convention, and it also seems unlikely that the latter court would be any better versed in Scots law than two of the Supreme Court’s justices, Lord Hope and Lord Rodger, who have held the posts of Lord Justice General of Scotland and Lord President of the Court of Session in Scotland. Moreover, the ECHR is labouring under a lengthy backlog of cases, thus neither procedurally nor in terms of substantive interpretation of the convention is there any obvious benefit to be had in relation to SNP distaste at the effective exoneration of Nat Fraser, except to the extent that judgement day might have been delayed for some years – and justice denied? – if access to the Supreme Court had been unavailable and hence awkward questions about the Scottish criminal justice system avoided.

But all this brings to mind the SNP’s desire for an ‘independent’ Scotland to join the European Union and thus have national sovereignty compromised by the full panoply of treaty obligations, regulations and directives which would take precedence over domestic legislation and case law, and that’s even ignoring the issues of eurozone membership and monetary policy.

And this EU law would ultimately be under the auspices of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, a jurisdiction in addition to and completely separate from that of the European Convention on Human Rights and associated court in Strasbourg.

Thus in simple terms the dominant Nationalist mindset seems to say, ‘London bad: Frankfurt, Brussels and Strasbourg good’. Or a political and economic union of 60 million people bad, a political and economic union of 500 million people good. Hence something of a sovereignty paradox, but can all this be reconciled?  Of course, many prominent supporters of independence have a problem with these contradictions, perhaps most neatly encapsulated in opposition to the SNP’s oxymoronic “Independence in Europe” mantra, albeit that it’s not heard so much these days. More specifically, Professor John Kay, a member of the SNP Government’s Council of Economic Advisers, said recently: “In the modern world, economic sovereignty for small nations is inescapably limited, and political sovereignty is largely symbolic.” Of course, as Professor Kay’s Scotland on Sunday article makes clear, the limits of economic sovereignty depend on which uncertain course an independent Scotland takes, while his point about political sovereignty perhaps over eggs the pudding a bit.

On the other hand, Gerry Hassan refers to a “post-nationalist politics, one of shared, fluid sovereignties”, which may have some merit in an increasingly complex and interdependent world, but there’s certainly nothing ‘fluid’ about ceding sovereignty to the EU and in terms of a single currency; these are long-term commitments fundamentally antithetical to national sovereignty – ‘European superstate’, anyone? Thus ‘fluid sovereignties’ seems more a euphemism for contradiction and confusion rather than any kind of compelling explanation.

Of course, another prominent attempt to square the sovereignty circle manifests itself in the claim that Scotland would be pooling sovereignty with the EU on a consensual basis, a course of action freely and democratically chosen by the people of Scotland rather than having it thrust upon us via Westminster and the UK.

Again this seems semi-plausible, but the argument portrays Scotland as some sort of repressed colony at the height of imperial Britain, not a twenty-first century participative democracy whose citizens – to repeat a point made earlier – have never demonstrated any obvious desire to secede from the UK, as the several-year delay in the independence referendum ably demonstrates; if the Scotland Bill and the various other powers requested by Alex Salmond are as imperative to Scotland’s future as claimed, then surely these should be sidelined and referendum-enabling legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament forthwith to hasten the repatriation of the full panoply of desired powers?

By the same token, May’s election was self-evidently about who should run a devolved Scotland – and in view of the claimed increasing sophistication of Scottish voters there’s no reason why the SNP shouldn’t become the ‘natural party of (Holyrood) government’ (and indeed perhaps plenty of reasons why the SNP should be the most obvious natural party of Holyrood government) – without it indicating an endorsement of independence. Moreover, Labour trounced the SNP in Scotland in the last major electoral test in the UK context, namely the general election which took place precisely one year before the Holyrood landslide; what changed between then and now, apart from the seat of parliament in question? (The other obvious difference is addressed later).

But another angle on the sovereignty issue is that an independent Scotland would take its place at the international diplomacy dinner table as a fully sovereign nation state (sic!) and therefore have its own say in world affairs and hence be able influence the geopolitical environment.  Where, precisely? The G8? The G20? The G100-odd? Or perhaps joining (or displacing) the UK as a permanent member of the UN Security Council? Of course, the stock Nationalist answer is very probably that Scotland would rather not be part of the UK representation on the Security Council, thank you very much, but would Scotland have any more international influence as a separate entity than (indirectly) as a member of the UK?

However, it’s surely the case that Scotland would have less influence at the EU level (with near-30 member states) than it currently has as a constituent part of the UK, where indeed it’s often been claimed that Scotland has had influence disproportionate to its size; during the ‘new Labour’ years, for example.

Again, however, from the Nationalist perspective that’s the wrong kind of influence, and thus the second part of this post will suggest that Scottish independence is less about sovereignty per se than incompatible political ideologies.

 


How many referendums does an independence decision require?

Time to choose (Shrigley)

It was always going to happen with a group blog, two co-editors writing a post on the same subject and then looking to post at around the same time. The solution? Merge them together into a single post.

Here James looks at why only one referendum is required and Jeff argues that not only should there be two referendums but that it is in the SNP’s best interests for there to be that many.

A single vote is enough, but only with a better question – by James

Who would have imagined that Michael Moore’s call for two referendums on independence would cause such agitation and consternation? Gerry Hassan sets out ten reasons why only one vote is needed, which are mostly bullet-proof (although #8 is tangential to say the least). Lallands Peat Worrier starts off giving an old post of Caron Lindsay’s a hard time, before touching on the legality of various question options. Caron replies with a defence of the two-question position.

Again, and I fear this risks making me unpopular with both sides, I think they’re all wrong. The SNP’s first question, as currently proposed, asking merely permission to negotiate, is vague and inconclusive. If the Scottish people vote yes for that, it isn’t a mandate for independence, and the need for a second question on the outcome of the negotiations would be hard to argue with. LPW’s concerns here about the need for that question are surely answered by Gerry’s second and third reasons (above).

But that first question doesn’t even need to be asked. Negotiate away. Help yourself. Fill your boots. Ideally, while involving the Scottish public in a way the National Conversation failed to do. If the results of that negotiation, informed by the views of the Scottish people, are put to a vote, then that one single vote will be sufficient.

People will know what they’re voting for, what the constitution of an independent Scotland would look like, and they can make a clear choice. And then tell UK Ministers that their second question will be the one answered by the people. If the outcome of the negotiation gets voted on, why bother asking our permission to talk to Westminster?

If UK Ministers decline the offer to talk, and display the level of arrogance we’ve come to expect, they surely know they’ll drive the public further into the arms of the Yes campaign. That campaign can then still be based on one simple question: do you believe SNP Ministers should pursue independence on the basis of the proposed draft constitution? A yes vote to that would be uncontestable.

The SNP is more likely to win two referendums than one – by Jeff

The discussion over how many referendums Scotland will need before it can win its independence has rumbled along nicely over the past few weeks and months. Those in favour of independence typically prefer one referendum, seeing that challenge as more winnable than the two referendums that unionists typically prefer.

Intuitively, this makes sense. After all, if you have to jump over two hurdles then you are twice as likely to fall down.

However, I would suggest that the SNP is instead more likely to win an overall Yes vote with two plebiscites rather than one (or three, as I’m sure someone will suggest soon enough!)

The first referendum would be a theoretical question of whether Scots would like to be independent and whether they would like the Scottish Government to enter into negotiations with the UK Government to agree a settlement. More people would be disposed to voting Yes and less people disposed to voting No if they knew that they could always vote No in the second vote. The SNP Government has no mandate to enter into such negotiations without a plebiscite but a sense of curiosity and adventure may appeal to the Scottish electorate here and a crucial number would, I am sure, be swayed into finding out what would happen next.

Curiosity may have killed the cat but I can never envisage it shooting the nationalist fox.

For me, this is similar to the way the Scottish Parliament votes. Many opposition parties abstain or vote Yes at the first reading of a Bill only to go on to vote it down at the last opportunity, as they had always intended to do. It is, I suppose, the political equivalent of Parkinson’s Law -allowing work to expand to fill the time available.

The thing is, when that second independence vote comes around, the opposition parties can’t shut the door on it like they used to do in Holyrood. It will be for the people to decide and they may find that they like what is on the table.

There will be plentiful opportunities for the SNP, and Alex Salmond in particular, to demonstrate grievance and remonstrate face to face with Cameron and Osborne. It’s a crass point to make but still could nonetheless potentially true that this opportunity could be all that is required to win a Scottish majority. The devolution opposition will be largely out of the picture at this stage as a hitherto popular SNP majority deals directly with a hitherto deeply unpopular coalition Government. Alex Salmond will always find it difficult to win independence from a soapbox with only a bunch of theories but if he can point to a Tory, preferably a few of them, and reasonably claim that Scotland is getting a rum deal, then he has a much better shot and the only way he’ll get into that room and have that round-the-table discussion is with the mandate of a first referendum.

I don’t expect to win too many Nationalists over here given I am competing with the long-held view that support for independence just has to nudge over 50% for one day, polling day, and it’s game over.
For me, this overlooks both how winnable that referendum is (not very) and the related question of how fair it is (not very).

A settlement to negotiate away from the UK needs two referendums. One to enter negotiations and a second to agree on the specifics of that negotiation. It won’t be possible to reasonably compare an indepedent Scotland with the current UK setup until AFTER the first vote and indeed AFTER the negotiations have completed. It’s only fair.

I can understand the Nats’ frustration on this. We’ll be voting on independence, what does it matter if we have a DVLA or not?

Well, how much of the North Sea’s oil will we get? How much of a settlement from existing UK assets and (liabilities) will be ours? What will our Defence look like? What will happen to RBS and the bank formerly known as HBOS? These may well all have simple, straightforward solutions but you can bet your bottom pound note that most Scots will want to know for sure the answers before it’s bon voyage for Bonnie Scotland and an adventure that’ll last a lifetime.

Ans therein lies the SNP’s route to success, trusting the people to come to an informed decision. Scotland has won a Yes/ Yes referendum before, it can do so again.

Pic by the wonderful Mr Shrigley.

SNP in the dock over contempt for UK court

After the 2007 election, the SNP enjoyed a honeymoon period that arguably stretched out for two years. In 2011, despite a stunning majority-winning election, that honeymoon period is in danger of being less than a month.

The only court that I plan on attending in London is of the tennis-variety at Wimbledon so there is only so excited that I can be at the protracted wrangling between the SNP and seemingly the rest of the world over which courts should and should not hear Scottish cases in the United Kingdom.

However, the SNP’s continued insistence to chip, chip, chip away at the question of what role the UK Supreme Court should have in Scots Law has forced my hand, not least due to Kenny MacAskill’s ante-upping threat to pull Scotland’s £500k funding of said Court with the rather bizarre justification that ‘he who pays the piper, as they say, calls the tune’.

I suspect that this worrying rhetoric is just the Justice Secretary once again unintentionally fudging his meaning and Kenny is simply seeking to raise the question of what jurisdiction courts should and shouldn’t have. It is too crass to say, as many already have, that we have separation of powers in this country and politicians should not get involved with what the legal process is. That is true for specific cases but in terms of a structural process, it is only Governments that can effect change so the objections raised by MacAskill and the SNP at large are perfectly valid, if perhaps ill-timed and ill-conceived.

As to the question itself, on the face of it, a London court reviewing and overturning the decision of a Scottish court when Scots Law and English Law are two separate kettles of fish seems wrong. However, even just a little bit of digging into the precedents and rules that are in place show that the UK Supreme Court is absolutely the appropriate place for certain cases to be heard. My understanding is that the Privy Council had formerly been a body of appeal for Scots Law cases related to the European Convention of Human Rights and the UK Supreme Court has now superseded that. No objections from me then; the SNP do seem to be guilty of having a solution that is looking for a problem.

Do I like the idea of Scotland’s legal appeal route bodyswerving London and leading direct to the heart of Brussels/Strasbourg helping to ensure that our nation is a full and equitable partner of the European Union? Yes, I do. Do I think the SNP is making that case in a mature and dignified manner? No, I don’t. Do I think that this is a particularly pressing issue for Scotland at this time? Absolutely not, given the pitiful few cases that this would have affected in the past few years and, no doubt, would affect in the years to come.

For me, the SNP is picking the wrong battle, at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons. A situation has presented itself which offered the possibility of exacerbating an apparent imbalance in our constitutional arrangement and the SNP could not resist leveraging the opportunity for its own ends as much as it possibly could. The whole issue does smack of a bit of a practice for independence arguments that will be fully flexed in a few years time as the referendum approaches but with an election just completed and all Scots eager to learn what the SNP’s domestic agenda will be for the year(s) ahead, this sends out a disappointingly partisan message with an abysmal sense of timing.

I do not get the impression that the SNP has researched this area a great deal but simply jumped on a moving train that it hoped would soon turn into a bandwagon. A panel of experts assessing this potential issue in a sober, controlled manner and putting forward recommendations would have been a much more approriate way to suggest changes to a hitherto largely undiscussed and uncared for aspect of Scottish civic life, not springing this upon our collective consciences via Gordon Brewer and the Newsnight Scotland channels. We spook easily don’t you know.

So, given the staunch resistance to the SNP’s calls for ‘London to butt out’, it looks like this is one issue the Nats should have left well alone or it’ll be left shaking its head in dismay at how it fought the law, and the unionists won.

Passport controls at Gretna are possible

There is a lot of nonsense that is spoken of regarding what an independent Scotland would involve – financial meltdown, mass emigration and never entering a World Cup again. As if we need to be independent for one of those harbingers of doom to come true.

Amidst the excellent debate in the epic comments on James’ recent post, the common line of ‘borders at Gretna’ was raised, fast becoming Scottish independence’s very own version of Godwin’s Law. (that is, the longer an online conversation discusses Scottish independence, the probablility that someone mentioning passport controls at Gretna approaches 1).

I had always considered this to be a ridiculous notion. Having to get your passport out when driving between Scotland and England seems fanciful when no such border exists between Ireland and the UK, not to mention France and Spain, Holland and France and Denmark and Sweden (though that last one is set to change). However, when leaving a comment on that recent article, I realised that passport controls between Scotland and rUK* is not so ridiculous after all.

Picturing an independent Scotland, the first thing that it will need to work hard on is its economy. I do not imagine there will be a significant withdrawal of business from a new Scotland and, even if there was, new entrants to the market would quickly fill the gap and that may not necessarily be a bad thing for a new nation finding its identity. However, there will always be extra costs for a young country as new processes get set up and institutions are created from scratch. Furthermore, a strong dose of confidence would be useful to inject at such an uncertain time so a visible growth in the Scottish economy would be welcome.

The two key ways to achieve such growth and confidence are exports and tourism; two areas in which Scotland is particularly blessed. On tourism, a new Scotland would seek to sell all its key characteristics; the golf, the whisky, the rolling hills, the ceilidhs. Ah, I’m getting all misty-eyed just typing it. However, no scone would be left unturned as this new country tried to ingratiate itself to its new European neighbours so it’s not out of the question for Scotland to opt to enter the Schengen agreement which would mean that citizens from EU countries that are also in this agreement would not need their passports to travel to Scotland. A subtly powerful way to entreat tourists to come visit and spend their money. Indeed, Scotland may even have no choice in the matter as it has been suggested that new joiners to the EU (of which I would personally assume that Scotland as the secession state would be and rUK would not) must join this Schengen agreement.

Either way, the rest of the UK would have a problem if Scotland were to enter Schengen.

Per Wikipedia:

In 1985 five member states of the then European Economic Community signed the Schengen Agreement on the gradual dropping of border controls between their respective countries. This treaty and its implementation convention of 1990 would pave the way for the creation of the Schengen Area. Although not implemented until 1995, two years later during the Amsterdam Intergovernmental Conference, all European Union member states except the United Kingdom and Ireland, plus two non-member states Norway and Iceland, had signed the Schengen Agreement. During those negotiations, which led to Amsterdam Treaty and the incorporation of Schengen into the main body of European Union law, Britain and Ireland obtained an opt-out affirming their right to maintain systematic passport and immigration controls at their frontiers. If the United Kingdom or Ireland were to join Schengen, the Common Travel Area would come to an end. If one were to join without the other, the joining country would have to exercise border controls vis-Ã -vis the other thus ending the zone. If both were to join all the functions of the area would be subsumed into the Schengen provisions and the Area would cease to have any separate existence.

I can’t imagine the largely UKIP-sympathetic, anti-immigration electorate of rUK ever agreeing to open, passport-free borders; it is barely tolerable for them to be a part of the EU as it is. In Scotland, that is not the case and, were it to be proven that the income gained from being part of Schengen would exceed the cost of a few passport controls and the hassle when travelling into England, then I can easily imagine this imbalance on the British mainland taking place.

The irony of a border point at Gretna symbolising an end of the Scottish/UK marriage? Don’t bet against it….

* rUK = the rest of the UK once Scotland has left