Archive for category Constitution

An Eton Mess could help Salmond find his sweet spot

It was David Maddox who spelled it out so succinctly.

On the Scotsman journalist’s Twitter feed, he remarked the following:
‘SNP need a better referendum strategy than going on about Tories and saying all their opponents are Tories’

The man has more than a decent point there.

Lamont’s ‘something for nothing’ misnomer to one side, the SNP need to define, and regularly redefine, what it is for and what its vision for an independent Scotland is much more clearly than it is currently doing. Befuddled Scots are looking to the governing party for answers and no amount of throwing ‘you can have the Queen, we can keep the pound, we’ll still be British really’ our way will distract us from wanting to know the answers to the more pertinent question – yes, but what’s actually going to change?

It is a simple philosophical logic that asking us to vote Yes instead of No means that there is a difference between the two outcomes from the coming referendum. It’s still not abundantly clear what that difference is. There is admittedly a risk that the SNP’s challenge becomes the unachievable winning a referendum and winning the an independent Scotland’s first election, but more is certainly required than the current performance.

NATO is a prime example of the lack of direction that the SNP is suffering from right now, expending considerable energy on arguing how alike the status quo things will be after a referendum victory. So what’s the point in voting Yes then?

I’m happy to be in NATO, happy with the pound and happy enough with the Royal Family. I still want independence because it appeals to my adventurous side and I think it would instil confidence, fairness and pride in a nation where not enough currently exists. That’s closer to the message that the SNP should be spreading right now, and it shouldn’t be too tough a sell against the backdrop of the direction the UK coalition is taking us in, but it’s just not getting through, seemingly due to timidity.

If you’re not playing offence then you’re playing defence, and so it has proved with Ed Miliband and David Cameron successfully stepping into the void created by the SNP’s lack of proactive campaigning in these past few weeks. If the unionist camp can with this referendum by mentioning the Olympics and getting a bit jingoistic about the UK, then it’s the SNP’s fault for letting it happen. I’m sure One Nationism doesn’t sound too bad to many wavering Scots out there.

NewsnetScotland has fallen into the trap as well, calling today for the unionist camp to explain what a No vote means. Well, no. The onus is on the SNP to explain what a Yes vote means and although that is difficult, shirking from that duty by lazily trying to box Labour and the Tories into a difficult corner just won’t cut it.

The opportunity may come from the ‘blond-haired mop’. Boris Johnson is plainly on manoeuvres and, if the rumours are true, won’t want to wait too long before making his move into Westminster and to the top job. David Cameron after all has never looked weaker – bizarrely unwilling or unable to sack Andrew Mitchell after plebgate, shackled to his best buddy Chancellor whose deficit reduction plan isn’t working and struggling to hold onto the central ground from a resurgent Labour party.

It wouldn’t be glorious or even particularly attractive, but the SNP thrives against opposition that is in disarray. Labour will do very well to conjure up a narrative that prevents this referendum being a choice on whether we want to live under Tory Governments or not so a posh boy scrap between Cameron, Osborne and Johnson over the PM position, not particularly helped by Ed ‘common as muck I am’ Miliband merrily jumping on the bandwagon. (I lived just up from Haverstock in London, it ain’t no Drumchapel I’ll say that).

It’s not the preferred platform for building a new country but for a party that seems intend on taking the easy route, Tory infighting may well be the SNP’s beat chance of victory. I do hope they opt for the high road, the difficult road, in the years to come though. The strategy just doesn’t seek right at the moment.

It’s not surprising that independence polls are derisory at the moment. ‘Scotland’s not buying what Salmond’s selling’ was how Lamont put it and, not for the first time in the past few weeks, the lady has a point.

Ed Miliband delivered a fine leader’s speech a couple of weeks ago and Cameron did the same yesterday.

I’m looking forward to Salmond’s contribution to conference season next week with his own leader speech but if he indulges in more Tory-bashing rather than selling Scotland a dream of an exciting, ambitious future, don’t expect those polls to be moving upwards any time soon.

No second question, but not a defeat for Salmond either

There’s an episode in the West Wing where, in the madness of a crowded rope line, President Jed Bartlet accepts a copy of the Taiwanese flag from a member of the public. Given Jed is such a wily political operator, the assumption is that he did this on purpose to invite the consternation from China and provoke a debate on Taiwan independence. He didn’t, he just made a mistake and didn’t see what someone had put in his hand. 

One has to wonder if that other wily political operator, President-in-waiting Alex Salmond, has played yet another strategic blinder in not getting Devo Max onto the ballot paper or whether he’s simply messed up. 

On the one hand, Salmond has seemingly been pushing for something that he and his party claims to not want but his political opponents do and, in losing ‘his’ second vote, he may well have cleverly won much of the would-be Devo Max voters as future Yes voters by fighting their corner and offering them some sort of change, rather than simply the status quo. 

Further, through this push for a Devo Max option, the First Minister has certainly helped paint Labour as anti-devolutionist and helped sew some internal rancour over whether they should back a second question or not. It’s well worth noting that the Devo Max referendum option has disappeared before Johann Lamont has even started her promised commission on devolution which is (was?) to focus on extending Holyrood’s powers.

On the other hand of course, Alex Salmond has opened his party up to the possibility of a devastating defeat in 2014 with no consolation prize and also opened himself up to ridicule here and now. Unwarranted ridicule that is, but when has that ever stopped the Scottish press. The First Minister was portrayed as wanting something but he didn’t get it. Cue exaggerated terms such as ‘humiliation’, ’embarrassment’ and ‘making chumps’ of those who want Devo Max. (A neat, if rather desperate attempt by Willie Rennie there to try to wrest back the Lib Dem reputation as being the most pro devolution party, though it does indirectly make him sound like Head Chump). 

I personally believe Alex Salmond genuinely wanted that second question, that it wasn’t all just political cross-dressing smoke and mirrors, and that he’ll be bitterly disappointed that a more fortuitous result was not reached during the time that he created for a second question to emerge. However, when someone doesn’t get the first win from their win-win situation, it’s more than a stretch to label it a defeat. Alex Salmond no longer has a legacy-defining backup plan for his circa 2014/15 retirement. That doesn’t really change much for the rest of us.

The quid pro quo for Salmond relenting on his push for a Devo Max option on the ballot slip is seemingly a mercifully straightforward, Westminster-sanctioned, legal framework in which to hold the referendum.

This is all to be welcomed, because the sooner the ultimately frivolous and childishly conducted discussions over how many questions, what the question(s) will be, timing etc are out of the way, the closer we will get to the real debate sparking to life, Scots having constructive conversations about their collective future, politicians on all sides being forced to talk about substance and, most appealingly (and to use another West Wing analogy), the Yes campaign letting Salmond be Salmond, unleashing their prized weapon when he’s at his best – winning votes on the campaign trail. Unless he stuffs up and unwittingly takes a Union flag as a gift at an inopportune time, of course.

So no, it’s not at all clear who the absence of a Devo Max option is a defeat for, and we have a way to go to find out.

Coming oot and Conditional Patriotism

I’m not gay. Not that I’d think any less of myself if I was, although my fiance might be less than impressed by such a revelation.

Despite not being gay, I recall always being quite taken with Will from the excellent US comedy Will & Grace. Here was a man who was down-to-earth, calm, run-of-the-mill but doing well for himself and, for desperate want of a better word, normal. And gay.

Such was (and still is sadly), the lamentable portrayal of LGBT individuals on TV and the wider media that this character was terribly intriguing for those twin pedestrian reasons – gay and normal.

I daresay a comparison could be made to the mental image much of the public has (and certainly the media’s regular portrayal made of) those who intend to vote Yes in the referendum in 2014. How many minds have wondered, or mouths spoken out loud even, ”You support independence? You? But you’re normal’.

It’s easy to be pro-UK at the moment, expected even. The Olympics were a veritable slam dunk, the Queen has somehow conjured up some credible goodwill despite her constant crabbitness and London’s deep pockets have saved our wayward banks for which we are to be eternally grateful, or until after the referendum at least. It takes a strong nerve to say out loud and against expectation that you’d rather Scotland was its own country.

And yet, the more one looks at the polls and the more one considers the lay of the independence campaign’s lands, the clearer it is that more of the silent Yes voters are going to have to speak up to win the referendum. They don’t have to dress up like Braveheart, put on a funny voice or act in any way different to how they acted before, but, like gay Will, they do need to make their presence known. Come oot, if you will.

Margo MacDonald convinced me of this fact when she said yesterday “If a third of Scots believe in independence, then every one of us has two years to persuade another Scot, and we are home and dry” Well, we can’t be leaving it all to the tartan loonies, can we? And let’s be honest, there was a fair few on display streaming down the mound yesterday, mercifully outnumbered by families, refined couples and friends out having a good time and calmly making themselves known.

The problem in coming oot and getting people to join us in that regard (my Yes colours are pretty firmly labelled to the mast) is that there seems to be an irrationally deep-seated intransigence to even considering anything other than the status quo. I don’t mean genuine disagreement, which is to be very much welcomed. I mean a hard-headed ‘No!’ that carries no rhyme nor reason.

Take, for example, a very brief chat I had with a kilted worker in one of the Royal Mile’s finest kilt hire stores. Having noted that he was wearing Scots Nationalist tartan, I gambled with a bit of small talk, lost and was left thoroughly, thoroughly confused:

Me: ‘I see you’re wearing the Scots Nationalist tartan?’

He: ‘Aye’

Me: ‘You’ll be sad that you’re missing the rally then?’

He: *tut* ‘I don’t think so. If this country ever gets devolution, I’m leaving’

Now, where to begin. You work in a kilt shop, are clearly passionate about tartan, you’re wearing the Nationalist tartan infact, but if we ever get devolution independence, then you’re out of here? I never said anything of course, just gave a non-committal blank look and we parted ways. Sorry Margo, my ‘one’ will have to be somebody else.

We’ve heard similar rhetoric before of course, homeruleophobia I’m minded to call it.
Michelle Mone made the really quite ludicrous and pointedly public assertion that if Scotland were to be independent then she would take her Bravissimo bra company down south (effectively sacking on the spot those hundreds of workers who wouldn’t want to relocate from Glasgow).

I can understand any Scot being ardently pro- or anti- independence and I can equally understand any Scot being easy-oasy on the subject, but there seems to be a conditional patriotism at play whereby certain unionist Scots will only support and play a part in Scotland if they get their way, irrespective of what the democratic majority may decide. It’s not much of a team spirit if you ask me.

That conditional patriotism doesn’t seem to exist on the other side of the debate. Scots who have longed for independence have made do within the United Kingdom for 300 years with a quiet resolve and relatively little fuss, particularly if you look at other scarred and charred countries around the world. Or over the water, even.

I’m not even necessarily criticising those seemingly proud Scots who would nonetheless reject their nation if it were independent, I’m just striving to understand them. Conditional patriotism; it eludes me, but it’s out there.

Not that people stepping back should stop others from stepping forwards, and that was my take away from yesterday given a turnout that was high when set against expectations but low when set against an electorate. The enthusiasm of a relative few can go a very long way. One wonder how many would turn out for a Better Together No rally? I bet even the conditional patriots would stay at home.

So, there may be an immovable, implacable unionist object in the way, but that’s no reason why more and more Yes voters shouldn’t come out and help try to build an unstoppable force. And if that force is to be beaten, let’s hope that it was the mountain of counter-arguments that was insurmountable, rather than the limitations of our collective ambition and imagination. Or even just deep-seated prejudice against an imagined enemy, much like homosexuality, that has been battled and largely beaten before, with as much help from the quiet Wills of this world as the louder, colourful protests.

I couldn’t make yesterday’s march despite briefly walking against and alongside it on two different occasions. I’m already looking forward to next year’s though and standing proud, if not terribly loud, as a part of it.

Deus Eck’s Machina

A wee guest today from Scandinavian-at-heart BN favourite Dom Hinde.

I am writing this under the assumption that most readers will be aquainted with Dr Who. If you’re in the Scottish Greens, almost definitely so. If you’re an SNP type you probably just watch the Tennant and McCoy episodes and have the Karen Gillan action figure.

At the end of the last series of Dr Who, The Doctor, in a typically dead-end situation (time collapsing around him, almost certain death, and an impending binary choice between dying or allowing the universe to continue) came up with a ruse which tricked everyone, both in story and in real life.

He did what any man in a tight squeeze would do; namely persuade a time-travelling and shape-shifting robot to take his place, meaning that the evil antagonists could kill him stone dead and feel happy, whilst he lived to fight another day with the added bonus of getting to hang around with Karen Gillan for another couple of years. It was also revealed that this had been part of his plan all along, and that all his companions had been strung along in a game of cat and mouse designed to engineer such a scenario.

The use of such a deus ex machina to resolve plots is a device as old as Dr Who itself, and as 2014 gets nearer and nearer, it may well materialise (hopefully with a whooshing sound and some props being blown about) that the Yes/No options we thought we were being offered as an audience are in fact superseded by a mysterious third force.  We can’t know what this third thing is until the last possible moment, otherwise it would ruin the structure of the debate, but expect it to offer a satisfactory conclusion for the hero of our story and the general public.

Despite Alex Salmond’s protestations that he is not out after devo-max (and as the leader of a nationalist party, it stands to reason that independence is really what gets him out of bed in the morning), full sovereignty for the Scottish Parliament remains a minority pursuit. There is a real risk that a Yes/No vote could both kill the independence dream and even reverse the polarity in the process of decentralisation in the UK which has clearly been of benefit to everyone except the Westminster village. Furthermore, a no vote would give fuel to a lacklustre Scottish Labour Party who would feel that it had somehow vindicated their frankly appalling campaign, which lacks ideas and conviction to the extent that it makes Colin Baker era Who look like a milestone in television history.

In a few weeks time the Greens will get together to decide whether or not to officially join the Yes Scotland campaign, and whether or not they should give up their demand for a three option referendum, the middle option of which would be a variation on a devo-max theme. I personally am happy with the Green policy of being pro-independence, but still strongly back three options on the ballot paper. We would be doing Scotland a disservice if we sought a settlement which polarised the population and relied on a fifty-one per cent vote.  If it means garnering sixty-per cent or upwards, then I’m all for devo-max and the innumerable benefits for our democracy which it would entail. I’ll go around Scotland handing out leaflets quicker than a Raston Warrior Robot, and whilst Alex Salmond may be God when it comes to deciding what the ballot paper looks like, I’ll happily be the machine.  In the last series of Doctor Who the Doctor asks his Tardis why it never takes him where he wants to go, to which it replies, “but I always took you where you needed to go”.

Geronimo.

The SNP should cease to be after a 2014 Yes victory

If the SNP resolved to disband in the aftermath of a Yes vote, would it be more likely to win in 2014?

It’s Nick Clegg’s fault really, but what isn’t these days. The No2AV campaign successfully, if malevolently, turned the referendum on the Alternative Vote into a referendum on the Lib Dem leader rather than on the issue itself. Faced with having to personally win over more than 50% of the voting electorate, Clegg and his proposed improvements to the UK’s voting system were doomed before the debate had even gotten off the ground. 

The SNP could and should learn from this. After all, it is facing the same opposition that so ruthlessly put the Deputy Prime Minister to the sword. Given the chance, they don’t take prisoners and will leave you tied in knots before you even realise that you are done for.

Take the NATO debate. The SNP is getting publicly bogged down in what its own party policy is rather than facilitating a national discussion on whether Scotland should make this decision on its own in the first place. The Scottish media, naturally, is leading everyone a merry dance in portraying this as an independent Scotland’s de facto NATO policy rather than just one party’s. It is the same, or at least similar, for policy areas such as nuclear power, tuition fees, currency and foreign relations. The SNP speaks for Scotland when, for once, it doesn’t want to. 

There is, of course, every chance that it would be a Labour (or a non-SNP coalition) that makes up an independent Scotland’s first Government. What would our country’s policies be then? Well, we don’t know because every unionist party is wisely keeping schtum and letting the SNP twist in the strengthening southernly breeze.

To win the referendum, the SNP is having to jump through two hoops: 

Hoop 1 – to soften up enough people to the very idea of independence
Hoop 2 – to effectively win the first independent Scotland election on domestic policy two years before it takes place. And with a clear 50% of the vote. 

You simply can’t succeed with odds stacked so heavily against you. No wonder Alex Salmond has summoned all of his political nous to try getting a Devo Max option onto the ballot slip, but that is not going to happen. After all, why should the unionists give the SNP an easy way out when they can win a single question referendum at walking pace and potentially blow the SNP’s formidable machine to smithereens?

The fight that needs to be fought is the first of the two hoops above and in order to stop hoop number two even being a consideration in the public’s mind, the SNP needs to take itself out of the game entirely, and I do mean entirely. I am proposing that the SNP would cease to be after Autumn 2014 if it is a Yes victory with all SNP MSPs immediately being Independents in the Parliament and all party employees made redundant soon after, unless able to be kept on by the aforementioned MSPs.

This would, needless to say, be unfortunate for those involved but there may even be a further, subtle advantage to this. The McChattering classes openly speculating where Sturgeon, MacAskill, Russell et al would go, how many new parties may spring up in place of the mothballed SNP and what sort of policy shakeup this would mean for Scotland across all parties. It would be a fascinating discussion at an already exciting juncture in Scottish politics and the more people speculate, the more they’ll want to know the answers, answers that can only come with a Yes vote. 

Let’s be honest, the SNP would be creaking at the seams if it didn’t have independence to bind it together. The party contains, from top to bottom, would-be Conservatives, Greens, Labourites and even Lib Dems. Pull away that Saltire-emblazoned big-top canvas and Nats would be tumbling out in all manner of directions.

Perhaps the very onset of independence is the time to let that free for all take place. Why delay the inevitable if it’s win-win?

Another factor to consider in all of this is that a significant slice of the establishment has a deep-seated, irrational hatred of the SNP. Examples abound from Coventry journalists labelling us racists, Tom Harris’ famous ‘hate fest’ comment, Guido Fawkes’ assistant’s “scum” insult and of course the unimaginative classic ‘xenophobe’ charge from MSPs in the Lib Dems and Labour. The SNP’s collective instinct surrounding this problem is to fight back fairly but harder, and that has reaped dividends over the past decade. However, there are times when flight is a smarter choice than fight and robbing the exhaustive list of influential persons across the UK who don’t have a good thing to say about the SNP of their bogeyman may be the smartest means to a particular end.

To take this one step further and for the SNP to actively talk up Johann Lamont as the likely first Prime Minister of an independent Scotland would be the ultimate example of flattering to deceive. How many soft but currently resolutely partisan ‘Labour’ votes could be turned with that inducement alone?

And, needless to say, to take the duplicity to the fullest extent, the SNP could simply reform under a different name and brand in the relatively long period between a Yes victory in Autumn 2014 and the Spring of 2016 when the first elections would likely take place. All is fair in love and war, after all. The Scottish Social Democrats has a nice ring to it, a title that hasn’t done too badly across most of the Nordic countries in the past few decades.

Anyway, if there is a No vote in 2014, this is all largely redundant. The SNP would regroup, lick their wounds and try again in a generation, or sooner if they can engineer it. I see the Quebec Independence Party is set to return to power again, promising a new referendum, a mere 17 years since the last one. Noting that the one before that was only 15 years ago, there’s realistically really not so long for the SNP to have to wait to rebuild their strategy and have another go at this constitutional question. 

Not that many in the SNP will be considering defeat. Indeed, they are presumably willing to leave it all out on the field to get the result they want at the first time of asking. Well, why not make that literally ALL out on the field? Furthermore, to invoke Clegg again, is there a hint of a suggestion that to not stick to the underlying objective of the party and to not disband the SNP after an independence victory smacks a bit too much of a love for the ministerial limousines? We wouldn’t want the SNP staggering on into the era of independence primarily because its once-radical leaders enjoy their privileged lifestyles too much.

No, the longer this moribund excuse for an independence debate continues, the longer the polls remain resolutely rigid and in order to concentrate Scottish minds into delivering its goal, the Scottish National Party might be required to make the ultimate sacrifice.