It’s time for a bit of science on the Labour leadership. Or at least an entirely subjective game of Top Trumps. If I’ve missed anything out, do let me know. All scores are out of 10.
Issues | Sarah Boyack | Neil Findlay | Jim Murphy |
---|---|---|---|
Record of interest in reforming Labour | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Compliance with UK Labour | 4 | 1 | 10 |
Media support | 2 | 3 | 10 |
Appeal to SNP voters | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Appeal to Tory voters | 2 | 0 | 8 |
Appeal to Green voters | 4 | 4 | 0 |
In terms of the appeal to other parties’ voters, 10 out of 10 is the notional figure awarded for each party’s ideal current person, so 10/10 for the SNP would be Nicola, 10/10 for the Greens would be Patrick, and 10/10 for the Tories would be perhaps a reincarnation of Margaret Thatcher. In my unscientific view (like everything else here) Findlay and Boyack appeal to different parts of the SNP and Green electorates – he reaches the more left segments of both, while she reaches the more centrist part of the SNP voting pool and the more “eco” part of the Greens. Those figures tend to be low, especially for the SNP and the Greens, as both parties are on a bounce in terms of support. You’d have to be really aligned to beat 5 for either group, in my view. Malcolm Chisholm might get a 6 for current SNP voters.
I’ve also not put a figure for appeal to current Lib Dem voters. I really don’t have any idea what they want. The other thing to bear in mind there is that Labour will in part here be deciding whose voters they want to target. Are Tory voters a big enough pool for Labour to want to fish in, at a Scottish level? If I were them I’d want to focus the party’s appeal on SNP voters, perhaps most specifically that fraction who voted No in September, although holding off the Greens is apparently also high on Labour’s list of current objectives.
Excessive compliance with UK Labour for me does not count as a positive for a Scottish Labour leader: Johann Lamont’s criticism feels spot on, and fraternal operational independence seems the only structure that can help with the deep problems there. However, to be generous, I’m not convinced that vociferously opposing Miliband on a wide range of policy issues (as Neil Findlay would do – and I would tend to agree with him) would necessarily help with any hypothetical Labour revival. I think about 4/10 is in fact potentially the sweet spot there. I also find it hard to tell whether the media, especially the bits edited in London, are backing Murphy because they think he’ll help Labour or because they think he’ll sink them.
The upshot is this. If I were a Labour member, my policy heart would be inclined towards Findlay (despite the serious problems cited here by @3psteve), but my head would be decisively in favour of Boyack. Both head and heart would be united in the view that Murphy would be Scottish Labour simply doubling down on all its problems: the privatising, warmongering, tuition-fee-introducing legacy of Blairism, the clammy hand of London controlling the Scottish party, and the a obsessive focus on the SNP rather than Labour’s own offer.
Declaration of interest: I have, in a vote of confidence in the Labour membership, who still oddly only get a third of the votes, put £100 down on Boyack at 9-1.
#1 by Mel on November 2, 2014 - 4:17 pm
It’s been suggested to me that Boyak would be the Kinnock candidate. Sort out the Party’s organisational problems, stop the rot & bequeath a party, to one of the younger generation, able to put up a genuine challenge post-2016.
The more I think about, the more the suggestion has merit.
#2 by MetalSamurai on November 2, 2014 - 4:27 pm
Boyack? Wasn’t she on the radio the other day sounding just like Lamont? Repetitive, incoherent rambling about poverty, but no suggestion as to what SLab could do about it, claiming Miliband is definitely the answer to Scotland’s woes and then, in a fine moment of cognitive dissonance praising the Scottish electorate on their engagement through the referendum and then assuring us that she knew how to get SLab to reach the disengaged voters.
I don’t see any of the three as being good for Labour, but Findlay might be the worst for the SNP. They’ll doubtless have to do it all again in June, anyway.
#3 by Nick Bibby on November 2, 2014 - 11:56 pm
May I throw in another suggestion as to why the ‘bits edited in London’ are backing Murphy: They’ve heard of him. I’m not sure that anything is as well thought through as worrying about his impact in 15/16, I think it’s mostly that he’s seen as a ‘proper’ politician. Former ‘proper’ cabinet minister, shadow cabinet minister in a parliament they care about, yada, yada.
#4 by BM on November 4, 2014 - 2:53 pm
Surely there are only three things that matter:
– Appeal to Labour Members
– Appeal to Labour Parliamentarians
– Appeal to Labour-Affiliated Unions
#5 by MetalSamurai on November 4, 2014 - 7:35 pm
So far it looks like Murphy appeals to MPs, Boyack appeals to members and Findlay appeals to Unions. Not sure if appealing to the media and bookies tips the scales, and if so in which direction.
#6 by No_Offence_Alan on November 4, 2014 - 11:43 pm
I think Boyack would work best with the Lib Dems, but I can’t see Lab + LD being a majority post-2016