It’s month two of our joint project with the Daily Record, Dundee University’s 5 Million Questions and our pollsters, Survation. The Record have gone with the indyref poll, the figures for which I intend to draw a veil over here. They have to try and not look partisan. I don’t think that applies to me.
Anyway, here are the latest Holyrood voting intention figures. Last month I did the vote shares as a comparison to Holyrood 2011. This month I’m comparing shares to last month’s data: but the seat numbers are still shown as the change on 2011 (I know this is a bit confusing and I am open to other ways of showing the data). I am also giving the first post-decimal point figure, although it’s false accuracy and as usual the margin of error is ±~3%. Seat projections are from Scotland Votes again.
| Parties | Constituency | Region | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote share (+/-) | Seats (+/-) | Vote share (+/-) | Seats (+/-) | Seats (+/-) | % | |
| SNP | 44.9 (+0.3) | 50 (-3) | 40.6 (+0.7) | 13 (-3) | 63 (-6) | 48.8 |
| Labour | 32.1 (-1.9) | 18 (+3) | 25.1 (-3.1) | 16 (-6) | 34 (-3) | 26.4 |
| Conservative | 13.5 (+0.5) | 3 (±0) | 12.2 (+1.1) | 12 (±0) | 15 (±0) | 11.6 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.7 (+0.7) | 2 (±0) | 9.0 (+2.3) | 7 (+4) | 9 (+4) | 7.0 |
| Scottish Greens | – | – | 7.3 (-1.1) | 8 (+6) | 8 (+6) | 6.2 |
| Others | 3.8 (+0.5) | 0 | 5.9 (+0.1) | 0 (-1) | 0 (-1) | 0 |
A few things to note here. First, the SNP remain overwhelmingly Scotland’s most popular party, slightly above even where they were last month. If I were off to their party conference this weekend, almost seven years since taking power for the first time, I’d be pretty pleased with these figures. It’s a little off their peak, sure, and the absolute majority would presumably be replaced with another round of minority, or a coalition with the Lib Dems or the Greens. But it’s still very impressive.
Second, that would obviously be Labour’s worst ever Holyrood result – very marginally up on the first vote but paying for it on the list. There are some who think “Labour hegemony is normal setting” (sic), but if that’s true still (it isn’t) we’re a long way from normal right now. Outflanking the SNP to the right and a constant diet of negativity: these tactics are not working. In fact, much as the point of the referendum is that it’s beyond party politics, if I were to look for current non-indyref numbers that are good straws in the wind for September, it’s this: Labour are currently only appealing to about a quarter of the Scottish people, and only 69% of that 25% core vote here is voting Yes (15% No, remainder don’t know). That wider disconnect between Labour and the Scottish electorate can only help Yes.
The coalition parties have had a wee bump since last month too. It’s consistent with UK-wide polling, especially for the Tories, much as I can’t see how the last month has been any good for them.
The Greens aren’t quite at the high point we saw last month: but I’m pretty sure Patrick and Alison would be quite satisfied with six additional colleagues in May 2016 and the possibility of office.
Oh yeah, and UKIP are down to 4% in that regional “Others” vote, at the point where they need a serious target region or two to win seats. Which I don’t think they have, or if they do, I haven’t noticed.
See you again next month!
#1 by Danny on April 10, 2014 - 1:11 pm
James,
I’m just wondering if there are any plans to include a question on Scottish voting intentions for next year’s Westminster election, perhaps separate options depending on the referendum result?
Scotland is now an SNP heartland in both European and Holyrood polls, but especially if a no vote is returned they would surely love to gain some ground on Labour in general elections
#2 by James on April 10, 2014 - 1:26 pm
Hi Daniel, we do have a regular Westminster voting intention (I’ll look for it and post here when I find it). I still find it weird that we’ll get a Westminster vote in 2015 even if we secure independence. But yes, I agree, if it’s a No the SNP will want to do better there. When they recover…
#3 by Muscleguy on April 10, 2014 - 10:18 pm
Why is it strange that we will have a Westminster vote after the referendum even if we vote Yes? as our American cousins said way back when:
No taxation without representation.
We will still be paying taxes to Westminster right up until Independence Day. So we bloody well deserve representation.
I think we really should send just SNP people to Westminster in that vote. After all they will have to keep an eye on the negotiations from London for us. After the unionist campaign, would you trust any of those three parties to primarily have Scotland’s interest front and centre?
#4 by James on April 11, 2014 - 9:20 am
Oh, I see the logic, of course. We’ll face 18 months when Westminster will still be legislating for us (hopefully as little as possible).