Despite there being many possibilities for Scotland’s future between now and the next UK General Election, one intriguing consideration since Clegg and Cameron took to the rose garden to announce their parties’ coalition is – to what extent can the Lib Dems survive as a political force north of the border.
The party is enjoying the power and trappings of Government, and being relevant to national political discussion. It is easy to forget that Labour MPs used to walk out of the Chamber when it was the Lib Dems’ turn to ask Prime Minister Questions. Not any more, now they must face them from the opposition benches and even watch on occasionally as Nick Clegg takes to the lectern in the Prime Minister’s absence.
It has been, of course, considerably more bruising for Scottish Lib Dem MPs, wrestling with their consciences over votes on tuition fees, bedroom taxes and spending cuts, knowing that they have to compromise their principles and shred their constituency mandates in order to vote Yes. A commendable number have voted against their party and against their Government, but will this be enough if they have to face the voters again in 2015?
A recent poll by Lord Ashcroft has helped shine a light on the Scottish Lib Dems fortunes, and, well, it doesn’t look pretty.
The party currently holds a mighty eleven seats north of the border, a figure that far outweighs the number of seats they deserve based on national voteshare. These seats were the population for a poll of voting intentions, with a sample size of 1,151, and resulted in the following:
Voting intentions
SNP – 31%
Labour- 26%
Lib Dem – 20%
Conservative – 16%
Others – 7%
The analysis concluded that the Lib Dem seats would change hands as follows:
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine – SNP GAIN
Argyll & Bute – SNP GAIN
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk – TORY GAIN
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross – SNP GAIN
East Dunbartonshire – LABOUR GAIN
Edinburgh West – LABOUR GAIN
North East Fife – SNP GAIN
Gordon – SNP GAIN
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey – SNP GAIN
Orkney & Shetland – LIB DEM HOLD
Ross, Skye & Lochaber – LIB DEM HOLD
A lot can happen between now and 2015 of course, not least a referendum that would mean zero Scottish MPs of any party. However, any suggestion that the success of Eastleigh could be replicated north of the border in 2015 appears to be a very faint one indeed. There is, seemingly, no escape from a very public evisceration, except through independence.
An independent Scotland would start with a clean slate, with an increased number of MSPs at the Scottish Parliament with relatively few experienced politicians ready to hit the ground running. There may be no space for Jo Swinson, Mike Crockart or Danny Alexander. Even Michael Moore, Charlie Kennedy and Menzies Campbell won’t be returning to the UK Parliament on the basis of this poll, but all eleven Scottish Lib Dems would quite reasonably expect to be voted back into power at an enlarged, empowered Holyrood in an independent Scotland.
Politics, they say, is the art of the possible and all too often is simply driven by the need for survival. There are nine Scottish Lib Dem MPs with coats on very shoogly pegs, all supposedly signed up to a party policy for home rule and federalism, and this high watermark of representation realistically won’t be reached again for decades.
In order to save their political careers, who would blame them if they became independence converts in the next year or so?
#1 by AFaulds on March 9, 2013 - 2:21 pm
“The party currently holds a mighty eleven seats north of the border, a figure that far outweighs the number of seats they deserve based on national voteshare.”
Actually, at 18.9% of the Scottish vote in 2010, the Lib Dems are the only party in Scotland that have the exact number of seats they would be due under a completely proportional system.
There’s something very odd about those voting intentions… For the SNP to be ahead of Labour isn’t so odd this far out from a UK election, but for Labour to be on a mere 26% is, and for the Lib Dems to be on an INCREASED share of the vote since 2010 is surely way off. Most other polling in Scotland has had them in sub-10% territory, I believe. Very strange.
#2 by Ross on March 10, 2013 - 11:13 pm
AFaulds remember that this is polling of the 11 seats the Lib Dems currently hold and got anywhere between 30ish-60ish% of the vote in 2010.
This poll shows them in a devastatingly weak position in the seats they’re aiming to defend. Across the rest of the country it looks like a few lost deposits are on the cards.
#3 by AFaulds on March 11, 2013 - 11:53 am
D’oh, I hadn’t read that part properly! In which case, what a lovely set of results!
#4 by Calum W on March 9, 2013 - 2:59 pm
I missed the fact that these were actually just for the Lib Dem seats, so feel free to delete the previous comment
#5 by James on March 9, 2013 - 4:24 pm
Ross, Skye & Lochaber is Charlie K’s seat, so presumably he should be off your list, assuming he wants to stand again. I wouldn’t be surprised if many on this list just left politics altogether.
#6 by Oldnat on March 9, 2013 - 9:26 pm
Actually, applying the poll numbers to Ross, Skye & Lochaber suggests it would go SNP as well. I suspect that Ashcroft has built in an added bit for Charlies’s personal vote – which seems sensible.
#7 by Edulis on March 9, 2013 - 11:27 pm
Charlie and Danny are in a likely head to head to see who represents the Lib Dems for the revised seat. Either way as a constituent, I don’t fancy either of their chances which ever one takes the baton. The LibDems are toast here.
#8 by Benjamin on March 11, 2013 - 3:59 pm
The boundary changes are not going ahead.
#9 by Galen Milne on March 10, 2013 - 9:26 pm
What a load of puerile nonsense.
Eastleigh shows us where we have a foundation we will continue to win.
I’d be more concerned about the lies the nationalist continue to promulgate in defence of their mantra of so-called Ścottish independence. Swingy and co will have a LOT to answer for come 2014.
LibDems will survive when the nationalist implode – mark my words!
#10 by Indy on March 11, 2013 - 9:21 am
I think the Lib Dems are toast – people have just lost trust in them. In some ways I actually think that is a shame because I don’t suppose – in private – many Scottish Lib Dems would have chosen to prop up the Tories whatever they say in public. So they will be undermined by decisions that were taken by the wider UK leadership. In that sense independence could be their saving because it would give them a chance to set out their own distinctive stall. But I suspect that, no matter what happens in 2014, it will take them some time to re-establish their credentials with the voters.