In the absence of a tangible vision for continued membership of the United Kingdom, and amid the relentlessly positive rallying calls from Yes Scotland, it can be baffling to witness consistently stubborn Scottish independence poll ratings that show support for a Yes vote at roughly between a quarter and a third. The most recent poll may have suggested that less than 50% of Scots intend to vote No, but a Yes victory still seems a long way off.
The Electoral Commission stated in its report last week that both sides of the debate need to make it clear what a Yes or a No vote will mean in the weeks, months and years following the referendum itself. With the vague promise of ‘jam tomorrow’ from all parties within the Better Together umbrella and a clear majority of Scots wanting more powers at Holyrood, one would expect that something would have to give over the next eighteen months in terms of direction from anyone in the unionist camp from David Cameron to Johann Lamont.
And yet, there is every chance that this impasse may drift up to, and beyond, Autumn 2014 with Scots still content to trump out and vote No.
Citizens around the world would respond in greater and lesser degrees to lofty language lulling people into a new constitutional setup, largely depending on their geographical location. Barcelona saw one million people calling for independence with typical Catalan energy and colour, Hong Kong held a purposeful but muted protest in similar numbers against China, while Quebec nationalism is often met with a somewhat ironic ‘Bof’ from the locals.
In a global context, it is perhaps no surprise that Scots would be amongst the most reticent to change. Scotland is, after all, a largely Calvinist nation, an historically Protestant land that wants for little and asks for less. We are, broadly speaking and whatever our political party persuasion, small c conservatives, though indeed used to be big C Conservatives.
There is a widely known but nonetheless remarkable factoid that it is the Conservatives that are the only party to have won a majority of constituencies in Scotland with a majority of the popular vote in any general election. One could argue that the new conservatism of the Labour party has merely replaced the old conservatism of the Tories, aided and abetted by Thatcher’s hollow spectre. Labour nowadays tend to win more seats in Scotland the less radical it actually is. Rocking the British boat, or any sizeable boat for that matter, has not been on the agenda for decades.
Indeed, it is testament to the peculiarities of the United Kingdom that, for decades, a largely poor Scotland happily forwent billions of oil revenues to an already cash-rich London, despite the Norwegian example showing that we were sitting on a winning lottery ticket that would transform our schools, infrastructure and employment prospects if we only stood up and fought for it.
This economic piety is perhaps not borne out by the poll that suggested a majority of Scots would vote for independence if it meant an extra £500 in the bank account each year. This SNP-minded redistribution of public cash strikes me as playing up Tory-esque electioneering tax cuts but, either way, such squalid squander will not be a feature in Scottish minds when the referendum comes around. It’s easy to cash those cheques in one’s mind on a call to a pollster, but the Scottish mentality that is engrained within so many of us is less easy to shift when it comes to big decisions.
We have been called out on this outlook before of course, the American priest that said Scotland is ‘a dark place full of homosexuals’ drew ire not just rightfully because of his bigotry but also wrongfully because he struck a nerve. In our heart of hearts, few Scots would argue against their nation being a dark place in the context of history, health or humour. It’s grim up north.
Indeed, the difficulty that Yes Scotland (and the SNP in particular) face in trying to buy an independence victory through promises of savings from Trident, through a reduced Defence budget and/or through bountiful oil revenues may not just stem from being up against immovable Scottish conservatism, but also rather ironically from all the way back in 1707 when Scotland was united with England in the Treaty of the Crowns.
The 18th century Robert Burns poem ‘Such a Parcel of Rogues in a Nation’ remains popular today, particularly the line where the bard castigates those Scots who were believed to have been “bought and sold for English gold”. We Scots resented being bought over back then and, by jove, we won’t make the same mistake again, even if that would involve righting the original wrong. ‘Salmond can hold onto his purse strings, we’re fine as we are’, some may say.
Many Scottish Calvinists and conservatives alike quietly pride themselves in not asking for much and not being a bother. No wonder then that Yes Scotland’s task of delivering momentous change to the United Kingdom is so challenging; we already have No riven through us like a piece of rock.
Why Scottish conservatives will decide the independence referendum
Feb 1
#1 by Juteman on February 1, 2013 - 6:51 pm
Forget the poll figures.
Folk who say they are Yes voters WILL vote. Many of the negative No voters will stay at home. It’s hard to get motivated to say No.
#2 by Jeff on February 1, 2013 - 7:08 pm
Verging on off-topic but an interwsting point, does Scotland’s natural conservatism extend to would-be No voters not wanting to be a bother to the extent that they’d just not get involved? Very much possibly.
Would be good to see a raft of polls including likely to vote to really nail that one. As I say, another post for another time but yeah, good point!
#3 by Iain Menzies on February 1, 2013 - 9:10 pm
Well most polls will give some weighting to liklyhood to vote…so i doubt the numbers would be that far off.
but consider, this is an issue that will fire up scots (both ways) a heck of a lot more than the AV referendum did. I mean seriously, the general response from no voters in the AV ref was a feeling of why are we even being asked this question. Dont get me wron i think that the indy ref will be closer than AV (tho not much) but NO will still turn out.
#4 by Angus McLellan on February 2, 2013 - 12:52 am
Will it though. There are shades of No. Look at the SSA Survey. There’s “No, I’ll wait for devomax (or devomore)”, “No, I’m happy as is”, “No, and frankly that Tartan Tax is a menace, get rid of it” and finally “No, and abolish Holyrood”. Depending on which No is on offer, different groups will be enthused. Some might even switch if it’s the wrong No. And we can’t assume it’s just devomaxers who might be open to switching although they are the obvious switherers. There were, after all, some people who voted No/Yes in ’97.
#5 by Indy on February 1, 2013 - 7:44 pm
It’s worth taking a brief overview of what has happened so far and the hurdles that have been overcome.
1) Holding a referendum in the first place. Said to be impossible without a majority government, which was also said to be impossible. SNP got a majority government. None us can pretend that was entirely on purpose but we certainly expected to win big and so we did, with a very focussed and positive campaign.
2) Being able to hold a referendum that is legally unchallengeable and has the agreement of Westminster. Tough. But achieved.
3) Holding a referendum on Scotland becoming independent rather than one about Scotland leaving the UK, in which the pro independence side is the positive side and the anti-independence the negative side. Again, achieved. Quite incredible really. And not only that but a commitment from the No side to abide by whatever the Electoral Commission said! This will be good.
4) Getting money to run a big campaign. Sorted. Thanks to the late Makar and – incredibly – a couple of our guys winning the Lottery!!
5) Getting a cross-party and no party group together including people who really don’t like the SNP and have not even been particularly pro-indy in the past. Sorted. And if I say so myself as someone who has been commenting on this site for a while the fact that these days James sometimes sounds like more of an independence fundy than I do tickles me pink. Or green. At some point the realisation that you do not have to be SNP to get the huge opportunities that independence offers will sink in with many more people
So that is where we are now and how we have got here. And this is not complacency or some kind of political messianic complex but nobody would have bet money on achieving ANY of those things before they happened. Some of them happened on purpose and by careful planning, some of them have been happy accidents. But you make your own luck in politics as in everything else.
None of this means that we can assume we are going to win. It can all still go hideously wrong very easily. But let’s not forget that at every stage we have already beaten the odds. It is possible to go on beating them.
Perhaps this is fundamentally what goes against the Scottish psyche. That you can beat the odds. That’s why I think we have just one chance at this. If we lose we won’t get some kind of devo max consolation prize. We’ll get nothing and in that sense things will go back to normal.
But as well as considering our natural pessimism you also ought to factor in the impulse to do something that is quite exciting, to beat the odds. For me that was summed up quite well by the guy who tweeted I will vote Yes because I want to press the Big Red Button that says Do Not Press.
#6 by Peter A Bell on February 3, 2013 - 2:42 pm
To read this stuff you’d think radicalism was totally alien to Scotland. There were no Red Clydsiders. James Maxton and Jimmy Reid never spoke. Nobody ever marched in protest against the Poll Tax or Iraq or injustice of various kinds.
The United Scotsmen never agitated for an independent Scottish Scottish republic in the late 18th century. Thousands of people aren’t still campaigning for the restoration of Scotland’s constitutional status in the early years of the 21st century.
This Scotland of conservative Calvinists, staid and unadventurous, is not one that I recognise.
That we will get nothing from a NO vote is as close to being a certainty as makes no difference. But to suggest that this would result in a return to “normal” is to misread the situation rather badly. The situation following a NO vote will be inherently unstable and unsustainable. Everything that happens – none of which will be pleasant – will be contrasted with what might have been had the vote gone differently. There will be no satisfaction with the outcome. There will be massive discontent.
This discontent will almost certainly be fuelled by the actions of the UK Government, aided and abetted by the British parties in Scotland. Moves to roll back devolution; measures to slash the Scottish Parliament’s powers and budget; attempts to bring economic and social policy in Scotland into line with the rest of the UK; and legislation to prevent further constitutional referendums will all serve to light the fuse of that underlying radicalism which this article so sadly fails to acknowledge.
Driven by this radicalism, the independence movement will be unstoppable.