A wee Italy-via-Eastleigh guest today from Scotland’s super-punter Ross McCafferty, who’s got previous here with us. Thanks Ross! Oh, and the picture choice isn’t his fault. Apologies to anyone scrubbing their eyes.
Britain is not Ireland. Nor is it Italy, but the respective hammerings of largely centrist Parties in austerity governments should terrify David Cameron. In the 2011 election to the Dail, Fianna Fail, who had dominated Irish politics since the inception of the Republic, were beaten into a distant third, going from over 40% of the vote to 17. In an onimous sign for Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems, the junior coalition partners, the Irish Green Party, saw their vote share halved and they lost all of their seats. In Italy, incumbent parties who saw themselves as the guarantors of belt tightening economic credibility fared little better. Technocrat Mario Monti’s austerity coalition was beaten into a distant 4th, to have little or no say in the future governance of the country.
Having staked their economic credibility to both the elimination of the deficit, the strength of the pound, and Britain’s international power, David Cameron’s Tories are in dire straits as we come to the halfway stage of this five year term. Indeed, as we get closer to the 2015 election than we are from the 2010 election, the “Last Labour government” line stops having any credence. Where Labour could move into landslide territory, for me, is two fold. 1) Sacking Ed Balls, a man with a reputation for being pure poison, not to mention being an unfortunate relic – despite his weepy conversion and revisionist approach to his own role in Blair/Brown conflicts – of a bygone era in Labour history. 2) Stepping up attacks on Tories. There was little between Labour and the Tories in macro economic terms in 97-2010. They should press Cameron on what money he wouldn’t have spent in the New Labour years he derides as being so profligate.
But, despite cruising in the polls, Ed’s appeal thus far has been limited. He came to Scotland plenty in 2011 to support Labour, and lent his voice to the AV campaign, both of which were soundly beaten. He lost battles in formerly fertile Labour ground in Bradford and the London mayoral election. His best hope in tomorrow’s Eastleigh by election is now a UKIP win, which would focus attention on the coalition parties, and divert comment and introspection away from his parties now seemingly inevitable distant fourth.
My central question is: does the UK have a Beppe Grillo? The satirist and comedians anti political rallies saw him propelled from non existence to 3rd place and the position of kingmaker. Could we see this in the UK? On the face of it, it doesn’t appear so, our two and occasionally three, and if you believe Farage barely 4 party system is pretty deeply embedded. But I bet if you asked Mario Monti who his main danger was halfway through his term, a wild haired comedian convicted of manslaughter would not feature on the list. That’s not to say such an insurgent campaign would be the preserve of the left in Britain. A free speech, Englishman’s home is his castle, wheelie bin hating Jeremy Clarkson esque figure is just as likely as a Charlie Booker (who has fictional form) or a David Mitchell.
Sadly, what might make this unlikely is that the British electorate have had their fingers burnt before. Before he was merely looking glum and slightly ill over David Cameron’s right hand shoulder, Nick Clegg was the new face of British Politics, reinvigorating the scene with his talk of breaking from the two main parties. Friends who used to roll their eyes when I mentioned politics declared they were voting for Clegg, someone who understood their disdain at the same old politics. Naturally, true to form, at the first sniff he sold out his principles and went back on everything he had said. One thing is for sure, the 2015 General Election result isn’t guaranteed.
P.S. It wouldn’t be a guest post from me without some betting tips. You can get any other party to win most seats at 113/1 with Betfair. Ukip to win the election is 200/1 with Coral. And the Government to be ‘other’ is 8/1 with William Hill.
#1 by Doug Daniel on February 27, 2013 - 4:48 pm
Never mind Ed Balls – there is simply no way Ed Miliband will ever be Prime Minister. If Labour dump him for someone who doesn’t seem like they’re wearing a vest tucked into a pair of Y-fronts, then they have a chance of maybe sneaking a slim win. But I reckon the UK is in for several years of modest majorities and power changing back and forth, a bit like the 60s and 70s.
Unless Labour suddenly do an about turn and return to left-wing politics. But that’s not happening any time soon…
#2 by Iain Menzies on February 27, 2013 - 5:32 pm
Ed Milliband as a spitting image John Major…now that i like!
What do you mean return to left wing politics? when was the last time that labour was left wing (as opposed to centre left), Kinncok in 87/92? Certainly under Foot. Cameron and Osborne may be personally well off (as if Ed aint) but i think they would be even happier if ed went really left wing than even Tony Benn would be!
#3 by Doug Daniel on February 28, 2013 - 1:30 pm
Well considering where they are at the moment, even centre-left would be a rather radical lurch to the left. But aye, I meant left in the broader sense of “on the left-hand side of the centre”, as opposed to radically left. No mainstream party is going to do that in England while the press still wields the power it does – remember the taunts of “Red Ed” until it became clear he wouldn’t be upsetting the centre-right consensus of UK politics.
#4 by Iain Menzies on February 27, 2013 - 5:30 pm
I think your wrong on Clegg….the whole cleggmania thing passed before election day….the lib dem vote stayed pretty much where it was between ’05 and 10. what happens in 15 may be a different matter…they may take a knock, but i doubt that they would dip much below 17/18% at worst.
I also think you are wrong about the trouble in store for Cameron. Politics in the UK may be failing…but in Ireland and club med its pretty clearly failed. But then again, Berlisconi didnt do too bad and its not like he had no connection to what was going on.
Also the its labours fault line is one that still rings true. there is plenty of polling that shows that, seems to be when things are on an up swing people blame labour for it and when things look to be getting bad again they blame the coalition more (but often still labour overall). Also its worth pointing out that Labour were blaming everything thats wrong with the country on the tories well after even 2005! Much like the SNP do after 6 years in power.
#5 by Allan on February 27, 2013 - 11:32 pm
I agree with Nic… sorry, Doug (see what I did there).
At the moment, there is very little chance of Milliband the Younger being prime minister after the next Westminster Election. Labour are still behind the Tories in economic polling, while Cameron is still seen as more Prime Ministerial (despite his Flashman… er… flashes). In short, that poll lead is both still too small and soft. Personally, i suspect that Milliband’s failure to put out a credible viable alternative to austerity (which Balls has signed up too in two conference speeches) will do for them.
That’s not to say that Cameron will win by a landslide. I rather suspect that the Tories will be the largest party at least come the next election. I think that the the key to a Tory majority will be how bad the Lib dem meltdown (and conversely how much the post ’97 tactical voting pact between Labour & Lib Dem voters breaks down) is.
On another point, yes Balls might well be pure poison for some people but firstly he does rattle the Tory front bench and secondly he will be very dificult to remove. Iain Dale did an interesting “In Praise of” post on Balls reciently that is well worth a look.
#6 by Doug Daniel on February 28, 2013 - 1:43 pm
Aye, a lot of people seem to be under the misconception that just because the Tories didn’t win a majority in 2010, we can pretty much write off their chances of getting a majority in 2015. But Thatcher went from a modest 43 seat majority in 1979 to a stonking 144 seat majority in 1983, so it’s not like it’s impossible. Also, there seems to be a general assumption that all Lib Dem voters are would-be Labour voters – or at the very least anyone-but-Tory voters – and therefore the imminent Lib Dem collapse will benefit Labour solely. Who’s to say the Tories won’t pick up a bunch of Lib Dem seats in areas where their voters are more right-leaning than left-leaning?
I don’t think the voters will be prepared to re-elect Labour while they’re headed by the same numpties that were in Brown’s cabinet. Miliband’s a transition leader, nothing more.
#7 by Iain Menzies on February 28, 2013 - 3:47 pm
Well ’83 was odd in so far as you had the Falklands and well Micheal Foot…..
Mind if the Tories gain seats from the LD’s, it wont be (much) because of LD>Con switching…so much as Labour picking up LD votes where the tories are in second place.
#8 by Allan on February 28, 2013 - 4:04 pm
Ah, but remember that Thatch looked to all intents and puropses like a one term prime minister, untill The Falklands. That and the split in the Anti-Tory vote between the SDP and Labour led to Thatcher’s 144 seat majority.
As for the Lib Dem’s, the Tories would benefit not from Lib Dem voters switching to them but there not being an informal Labour/Lib Dem tactical voting axis (someone should do a post on this, maybe someone who used to do a tactical voting blog…). There must be quite a few Labour or Lib Dem MP’s elected because of tactical voting, who would be at risk if those voters revert to party lines.
#9 by Benjamin on March 1, 2013 - 1:42 pm
It’s perhaps worth pointing out though that the Conservative vote-share actually went down slightly in 1983 compared to 1979. The increased majority of seats was pretty much entirely because of former Labour voters switching to the SDP-Liberal Alliance rather than the Conservatives winning new people over.
In many ways, this makes the SNP’s performance in 2011 even more remarkable in the context of postwar Britain.