The polls have been consistent for years and it’s reasonable to conclude that the people have spoken. Yes, Devo Max is Scotland’s constitutional setup of choice.
The only problem is, the independence referendum does not provide for this option. We instead are faced with two extremes at either margin of our primary preference – full independence and the status quo.
So, in short, we know what we want, we just have to wait for our politicians to deliver it.
The perceived wisdom is that we must hang on for the seemingly inevitable No result in Autumn 2014 before hoping that David Cameron or Ed Miliband deign to reward us with further powers during the 2015 to 2020 Westminster term. This is to ignore a much quicker and democratic solution that is already within Scotland’s grasp.
By dint of its majority victory in the 2011 Holyrood elections, the SNP ‘owns’ the referendum process and, by extension, owns how independence will come to be defined. This will be set out in the Scottish Parliament white paper later this year but, if the polls continue to show little sign of shifting, some serious thought must surely be given to making ‘independence’ as close to the popular Devo Max option in this white paper as possible.
The decision for Salmond, Sturgeon and Robertson is this – gamble on, say, a 20% chance of winning full independence or effectively bank an 80% chance of gaining significantly more powers.
The difference between the two options may not even be so stark. As many unionist politicians are pointing out these days, there is no such thing as a truly independent country any more. Free trade agreements, defence treaties, the European Union, the United Nations…. Scotland will only ever be independent in an interdependent world. In the aftermath of a Yes victory, agreements would need to be signed with rUK on a vast range of issues. Why not reflect a UK interdependency within the parameters of what independence will mean in a referendum context, particularly if it significantly boosts the chances of winning?
This would probably mean UK passports, a shared defence force and safeguarding a shared currency. However, it could also mean full tax raising powers, full control of social security, offloading of nuclear weapons from Scottish soil and, who knows, maybe even some form of separate representation at the EU and UN. Would fundamentalist Nationalists be as passionate about voting Yes? Probably not, but the vast majority would still do so, and that would be alongside a crucial 30% of Scots who are currently undecided or intend to vote No.
The SNP would initially take pelters for such a u-turn, from the opposition and the media alike, and there is admittedly an argument as to whether they have a mandate to move decisively away from putting full independence to the people, as per their manifesto. However, having the electorate on your side is a powerful advantage and, once the dust had settled from the immediate furore, an intense pressure would be placed on the unionist parties to vote Yes or state clearly why they intended to vote No, given their past rhetoric. The Yes Scotland alliance, by contrast, could bask in the relative glory of healthy poll figures and fawning newspaper editorials.
Had Devo Max made it onto the ballot slip as a second question, it would have provided a guarantee for Yes Scotland that movement towards full independence was effectively assured. Without that guarantee, that Plan B, there is a strong possibility (many would say a likelihood) that Nationalists will come through this hard-fought and well-won referendum process empty handed and thoroughly dispirited. Perhaps bumping Plan B up to Plan A and watering independence down to Devo Max is the best bet for Salmond, and, for now, the best scenario for Scotland as a whole.
At what point should the SNP settle for Devo Max?
Feb 21
#1 by Bella on February 21, 2013 - 2:04 pm
Haven’t read such dire and confused pessimism in a long time.
#2 by Jeff on February 21, 2013 - 9:29 pm
Always a delight to have you stopping by…
#3 by Angus McLellan on February 21, 2013 - 2:16 pm
Never. Next question please.
Oh, you want more? OK. You first then. What is devomax and who’s offering it? Until you can explain what this nebulous moon on a stick and mom’s apple pie devomax is, nobody can seriously be in favour of it. It’s just a straw for those who don’t want to have to make a decision to clutch at. Independence for slow learners if you will.
Look at the SSA. Who ought to decide about Welfare? Holyrood beats Westminster by a margin of 40%. Who ought to decide about taxes? Holyrood beats Westminster by a margin of 20%. Should Holyrood decide on everything but defence and foreign affairs? Yes, 67% of respondents agree with this or more.
But nobody – absolutely nobody – is promising “everything but defence and foreign affairs” or all taxes or all welfare. And nobody ever will. So it’s a simple decision for the one third who want that, and only that. Either they take what they want, and also defence and foreign affairs which they don’t, or they get nothing or very close to it.
#4 by naebd on February 21, 2013 - 2:17 pm
Are there any parties supporting devomax that could get elected to be the UK govt in 2015 and will put devomax in their manifesto without a UK-wide referendum?
No? NEXT!
#5 by krmbellhouse on February 21, 2013 - 2:21 pm
The most sensible piece I have read on this issue
#6 by Alex Grant on February 21, 2013 - 3:17 pm
Jeff your analysis of what’s happening is always interesting but IMHO often misses the obvious. The SG does not in any way have the power to change its position re Devo Max! We all know that would win in a referendum tomorrow – which is why the Unionists fought tooth and nail for its removal. Now of course a vague offer is being dangled to persuade us to vote No. But as anyone who has been involved in serious negotiation knows a No vote would mean nothing will be on offer. Indeed common sense tells us that removal of powers, Barnett reductions etc will be the order of the day. The only hope of a Devo Max deal is the following and can only be offered to the SG. If Cameron thinks he is going to lose either the referendum or the Uk election he could offer a deal. Alex Salmond asking for a deal would be laughed out of court!
#7 by Jeff on February 21, 2013 - 9:32 pm
Thanks Alex.
I’d disagree that the Scottish Government doesn’t have the power to make this change. As I said in the post, they can dictate what ‘independence’ is and they’ve already kept the pound and kept the monarchy, why stop there? Even if the electorate agree that the SNP doesn’t have a mandate, it wouldn’t really be a problem if they are happy with the change of direction, as the polls suggest they would be.
#8 by gavin on February 21, 2013 - 4:25 pm
This would only have worked by using the Cameron route to Devo Max, as in the EU. They quite simply have no leverage to force change through the Commons and Lords.
The SNP could ( and perhaps should ) have stated in their 2011 Manifesto that they would negotiate with Westminster for further powers, and that they would put those results to a referendum. If Westminster refused to talk, then they would justifiably hold a referendum on Independence. Right now, they have to go with what they have and if they lose this referendum, then stand in the next election on Devo-Max. With a new referendum.
#9 by Galen10 on February 21, 2013 - 5:08 pm
One huge problem with this trial balloon is that the indy-lite describes isn’t available, and is never likely to be on anything like the terms Jeff and others might find acceptable. No UK government is going to accept this type of settlement which allows the Scottish tail to wag the British dog, particularly on WMD’s and semi-detached representation at the EU and UN.
Even if the UK were to offer more or less full control over fiscal matters, a Scotland which didn’t have control over macro-economic policy would still be at the mercy of the UK governments macro-economic policy choices, and constrained to a degree that would make such a settlement unpalatable to many.
The creaking UK polity and its archaic crypto-medieval system is simply not equipped to deal with the strains of a deco-max or indy-lite solution; it’s a circle which simply can’t be squared, because there is no appetite in England to reform the system, and no change of constructing a majority in Westminster to agree and legislate for such change.
All in all, this is a self defeating suggestion. Trial balloons are sometimes necessary, but this one is far too leaden to fly!
#10 by muttley79 on February 21, 2013 - 5:22 pm
The second question was for the unionist parties to support, and only they can deliver it at Westminster. The Tories in particular will not support more powers for Scotland because their backbench MPs would reject it. The Yes campaign had/has no control over what the No parties want to do. It is clear that devolution has reached its limits. The Calman Commission was evidence of this. Even it got watered down.
Journalists want the electorate in Scotland to think that a No vote is a vote for the status quo, or more powers. It is not, it is a vote for the almost certain departure from the EU, for continuing austerity, and the forced privatisation of public services, such as the NHS. It is also a vote for saying Scotland is uniquely incapable of running all its own affairs. The media in Scotland is extremely biased against independence, and along with their unionist buddies, are attempting to pull another 1979 con trick on the people of Scotland.
#11 by Iain Menzies on February 21, 2013 - 5:42 pm
The problem is what you are suggesting is not so much devo max as ‘i cant believe its not independence’*
And thats not a question for the scottish people. Devo as we have/had it was the result of a UK general election, and affirmed by the scottish people. What your suggesting doesnt just have us leaving or staying, but dancing along the line when it suits us. and frankly the English are entitled to ask if thats what they want us to do.
Thats before we get to the pint if a vote that isnt in or out would even be legal. As i understood it the Scottish parliament now has the power to hold a ref on indy…nothing else would be binding…and the SNP dont have a mandate for anything else.
And of course the second questions is what exactly IS devo max?
#12 by Del on February 21, 2013 - 5:43 pm
Is this even possible? Prior to the Edinburgh Agreement, and maybe since, is the only legally acceptable question and straight yes/no on independence? We can self-determine and even unilaterally declare ourselves independent, but can we really declare we want a package of powers from the UK govt, that they are not offering us? We can get a mandate to negotiate for a Devo Max scenario I suppose.
#13 by Craig Gallagher on February 21, 2013 - 5:56 pm
“Ah, those reasonable Unionists! We must take seriously their criticism of the YesScotland campaign, because the SNP must at all times remain humble and remember that all this lofty rhetoric can never be realised and that people elected them to compromise with their rivals, in a virtuous manner, rather than hold the line on the things they’ve said they want to do”.
Thus proceeds your argument, from the strawiest of straw men, Jeff. Your determination to see reason and logic in the political process marks you out as a Sorkinite, someone desperate to overcome the muckracking that modern politics so often is. Unfortunately, that’s unrealistic to the degree you want it to be.
The SNP has made a virtue out of reasonableness, but to follow your advice would be to take that to its logical extreme. Instead, they should always remember that principled politics is about winning, not by any means, but by at least those means that avoid too much collateral damage. Thus, arguing for the opportunities of independence, the promise of a generation and the reorientation – even awakening – of Scottish social democratic principles is a better path to trod than the scorched earth flamethrowing they could conceivably deploy against the excesses of Westminster. Independence is achievable and is a more desirable outcome: why settle for second best?
#14 by A Haddow on February 21, 2013 - 6:22 pm
Devo-Max
a) is not on offer
b) would never be implemented by Westminster
c) would require a UK-wide referendum (which would lose heavily)
d) would lead to independence anyway.
#15 by Jeff on February 21, 2013 - 9:35 pm
a) It could be on offer if the Scottish Government sanctioned it under the cloak of independence
b) It would have to be implemented if a Scottish majority backed it in a referendum, to not do so would be political suicide and would fast track full independence
c) I disagree
d) Quite possibly, which is another reason for doing it
#16 by ronald alexander mcdonald on February 21, 2013 - 6:49 pm
No Westminster government will give the Scottish Parliament real fiscal powers. Cameron, Darling and Moore have all confirmed. In fact Darling stated that any further powers would be “trivial” and would require agreement by all Westminster parties.
In addition, we would have no negotiating powers as Devo Max would entail Scotland remaining subservient to Westminster. With Independence both sides will have the recourse to International Courts to settle disputes. That concentrates the mind.
#17 by Allan on February 21, 2013 - 8:49 pm
Firstly, they won’t. The SNP are now wedded to Independence until September/October 2014 like the Lib Dem’s are wedded to their precious coalition with the Tories until… well probably the same timescale.
As for Devo Max… well the SNP can’t argue for Devo Max untill that point. However it does give then a very potent selling point come the Westminster Elections of May 2015, if they are able to realise it. Vote for us and we will push for more powers, don’t vote for the guy’s who thought that you were too stupid to govern yourselves… Rember as well that Lamont is reported to be keen on powers being given back to Westminster.
Mind you, Ronald does have a point about Westminster not giving Holyrood real fiscal powers. I think i might have read somewhere that Cameron would not give Scotland fiscal autonomy even in the event of a yes vote…
#18 by Iain Menzies on February 21, 2013 - 10:06 pm
unless your suggesting that the SNP would fight a UK general election after a referendum victory…you just suggested that the snp should campaign on the basis of telling people to vote for them and not the people they just voted in agreement with.
Personally i think that would be GREAT idea ….but then i dont see myself voting SNP in a general election any time soon.
#19 by Allan on February 21, 2013 - 11:16 pm
Ah, but I’m talking about the aftermath of a no vote (which is, lets be honest, the more likely result at the moment – I happen to think that Scotland will vote “No” anyway – http://humbug3.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/why-scotland-will-vote-no-in-2014.html). What I was saying is that the SNP have the selling point of being pro-more powers for Scotland whether that’s Independence or Devo Max. As Jeff points out, Devo Max is the “settled will” of the Scottish people, this I think is a ready made campaign for 2015.
#20 by Indy on February 21, 2013 - 11:43 pm
I agree that there is a lot of common ground between devo max and independence and that a yes vote is more likely the closer we are to defining independence in the same terms as devo max. But “full tax raising powers, full control of social security, offloading of nuclear weapons from Scottish soil and, who knows, maybe even some form of separate representation at the EU and UN” is much closer to independence than devolution.
So it’s not really about saying give up on independence, it’s about saying if you support all of those things you should vote Yes.
#21 by BaffieBox on February 22, 2013 - 9:23 am
As someone who could have been persuaded by Devo-Max, I’m afraid it’s dead in the water. Not only that, but I’m finding the UK Government and Better Together campaign have been slowly pushing me further and further from any Devo-Max settlement to the point where I just don’t want it now. I see nothing from the UK parties that suggests they are serious about devolution – Devo-Max is inferior for all the reasons Better Together and the MSM mock independence for, except it carries a “UK OK” rubber stamp. Nothing but branding. It is incredible that some people still, still, lay Devo-Max at the SNP door. What responsibility and expectation is being asked of UK parties? Absolutely nothing!
As others have said, the Scottish Government have no possible way of proposing Devo-Max. I doubt the Edinburgh Agreement allows it meaning it’ll immediately find itself in the courts. And quite rightly too. An independence party and campaign suddenly selling itself out would rank lower than a defeat in 2014 IMO. We can’t change the goalposts when it suits us – we believe in this campaign and we see it through.
I, and others, have said it before – Devo-Max is not the SNPs to define or own. It is a settlement that requires a UK-wide campaign and acceptance. There is no right no partial-self-determination – we cannot semi-lateral declaration of independence. If Devo-Max is the settled will of the Scottish people, then a party that believes in devolution and believes in the United Kingdom must deliver.
I suspect this is a “fishing” piece, to attract readers to the blog, but you know you are on suspect ground when certain broadsheet journalists are commending your contribution to the SNP/Devo-Max cause. 😉
As I said, Devo-Max is off the table. The SNP taking any responsibility for it would be a worse end than losing 2014 referendum fair and square.