A Comres/Sunday People poll was released overnight, the detail of which makes for interesting reading from both a UK and Scottish perspective.
There will be enough headlines garnered regarding UKIP powering into second place in European Parliament voting intentions ahead of the Conservatives, pushing Cameron into an even more difficult position over Europe, so there’s no need to go there.
It is to the Scottish breakdown of this poll that we look and the voting intentions there are as follows:
SNP – 34%
Labour – 27%
UKIP – 14%
Conservatives – 7%
Lib Dems – 6%
The sample size is small but the above doesn’t feel too ridiculous and it would suggest that Scotland’s meagre six MEP spots for 2014 to 2019 would be allocated out as follows:
SNP – 3
Labour – 2
UKIP – 1
An SNP MSP on Twitter has already made the knee-jerk reaction that UKIP winning a seat in Scotland is unthinkable but, well, is it?
Recent polls have suggested that more Scots are in favour of leaving the EU as there are wishing to remain and it is certainly clear from this weekend’s poll at least that Scottish opinion on the EU is lockstep with that over the border, where UKIP enjoyed great successes back in 2009.
While this in itself may sound odd, it’s worth noting that the UK’s one and only referendum on EU membership back in the 70s saw those in England and Wales voting in favour of Europe in greater proportions than Scotland, a 9% differential.
In order to win an MEP spot, UKIP needs to win a share of the vote that is more than a third of the SNP’s and Labour’s. They may also require to beat the Lib Dems, the Conervatives and the Greens (grossly underestimated in this poll as they aren’t named as an option).
While I do believe that the Conservatives will receive a higher share of the vote than 7% in 2014, I really don’t believe that UKIP beating them is so unlikely. The Scottish electorate has proved that it understands the different voting systems at play; that, for example, they can vote for an SNP majority and not be at risk of getting independence by accident and that change at Westminster doesn’t come about through changing MPs in Scotland.
It could well be a similar story with UKIP. The large numbers of Scots unhappy with the current arrangements with the European Union will feel free enough to vote for UKIP knowing that there is no risk of them representing Scotland at Holyrood or Westminster.
This would be problematic for the SNP and problematic for the Tories.
The SNP because if they were denied a third MEP then they would also be denied a momentum building result from these elections mere months from the independence referendum.
For the Tories, they finally have an issue here where there are more Scots in line with one of their policies rather than less. However, UKIP is robbing Ruth Davidson of that opportunity to make the breakthrough and leaving her nowhere to go. She could move more pro-referendum and more anti-EU, but this would be to the wrath of David Cameron who will wish to keep EU relations lukewarm at least and if Ruth moves more pro-EU then she will simply be drowned out amidst the gentle Brussel platitudes that the Scottish left of centre parties sprout out from time to time.
There’s only one primary concern that I have regarding Scotland and MEPs though, and I do hope that this will be one of the main focuses of the 2014 campaign. As part of the UK Scotland has 6 MEPs but with independence we would have around 13. The argument that we have more power as part of a UK bloc doesn’t hold much water when independence would (1) give us more votes in the Parliament and (2) allow our MEPs to side with other countries and other parties across the Continent.
This weekend’s poll suggests Scots are getting more savvy about the EU and how their vote can be utilised, I do hope that savviness grows over the next 16 months or so and rather than sullenly slink out of Europe through a vote for UKIP, Scots move the other way and seek to increase their influence through a vote for one of the pro-independence parties.
#1 by Oldnat on January 12, 2013 - 11:16 pm
“the Greens (grossly underestimated in this poll as they aren’t named as an option).”
Have a look at p24 of the tables.
SNP 36% : Lab 33% : UKIP 12% : Con 10% : LD 8% : Green 2% : BNP 1% : Other 1%
While we all (well most of us) recognise that wee cross-breaks are of little value, I agree that the distribution of VI isn’t that much different from what we might expect – if you aggregate the Con & UKIP support in this poll (22%), it’s not that dissimilar from the level of Con support in Scotland.
That Scots Tories might be “very British” in the Euros shouldn’t be surprising.
#2 by Indy on January 13, 2013 - 11:45 am
I do think Green support is underrated in that poll because it’s a small sample. I think they have a good chance of picking up a seat if they target ex Lib Dem voters as well as their own natural support.
#3 by Indy on January 12, 2013 - 11:26 pm
UKIP have an organisation down south that they don’t have here. So they would be reliant on people in Scotland motivated enough to go out and vote for them. Seems unlikely to me to be honest. European elections are always an uphill battle in terms of public interest. Without a get the vote out operation I can’t see UKIP getting a seat in Scotland. Could be wrong though, if they run a brilliant media campaign that could overcome lack of on the ground organisation. But that also seems unlikely. They are very little Englander in their campaigning style.
#4 by Daniel J on January 12, 2013 - 11:39 pm
Going back to the 70s to evaluate Scottish attitudes to the EU isn’t every helpful, more recent attitudes survey’s show that Scotland is less eurosceptic than the rest of the UK.
You talk about the trouble not ‘winning’ the EU elections will pose and that’s quite likely why UKIP have no chance.. absolutely everything will be talked about in relation to the referendum. Meanwhile on that issue, besides wanting to abolish the Scottish Parliament, Farage has been posturing about securing the best deal for ‘England’ should Scotland leave.
Scots do display varying voting habits at different elections, but Holyrood, local elections and Westminster are all viewed as having clear competency in local areas. European elections have always been at the whim of bigger issues…
#5 by AFaulds on January 12, 2013 - 11:40 pm
Teensiest of nitpicks – if it’s page 10 (table 9) you used (which I would assume given all the other voting intention figures match up), UKIP were on 11% of the vote, not 14%. Makes no difference to how seats would be apportioned, but probably makes most of us feel that 3% better!
#6 by naebd on January 13, 2013 - 12:48 am
I’d kinda like this to happen simply because I think we overstate the extent to which Scotland is some kind of leftie haven. On the other hand I would not like this to happen.
#7 by Allan on January 13, 2013 - 1:16 am
“This would be problematic for the SNP… because if they were denied a third MEP then they would also be denied a momentum building result from these elections mere months from the independence referendum. ”
I think that the most astonishing thing about your post Jeff is the refusal to acknowledge that we are becoming more sceptical about the EU, which I think is one of the reasons why the “Yes” camp is in trouble over Europe. It’s that discontent with the way the EU is being run that is behind UKIP’s rise, so in that respect why wouldn’t they “nick” a Scottish seat?
Of course the antiedote to UKIP would be the constant flagging up of their less paiatable policies and their (in the past) links to the BNP. It is worth remembering that at the height of the expenses scandal, they polled just under 58,000 votes coming in 6th so couldn’t make that much hay up here.
However with a Scottish political class intent ignoring any concerns people have with a remote, out of touch parliament… who knows what might happen.
#8 by Jeff on January 13, 2013 - 11:33 am
The whole post is about how Scotland is becoming more sceptical towards the EU. I wish that wasn’t the case as I’m still a fan but I don’t really see how you think I’m denying that…
#9 by BM on January 13, 2013 - 9:02 am
As Comres don’t weight their Scottish breakdown, any results will be terribly distorted.
#10 by Ross on January 13, 2013 - 8:11 pm
Jeff, I disagree about the need for a third SNP MEP being required for Yes momentum. I’m definitely biased but surely all we’ve seen so far indicates the need for separation of the SNP and Yes? That would make 2 SNP, 1 Green the best possible outcome for the appearance of momentum behind the campaign as it does not tie it to the party which could prove to be its biggest disadvantage?
Apart from that I fear you might be right in your conclusions.
#11 by Phil Hunt on January 14, 2013 - 4:47 pm
UKIP only got 5.2% in Scotland last time, which was their lowest across GB. I doubt if they will win a seat here, althought it’s not impossible.