When you are beaten by a penguin in an election, you know you’ve had a bad night. Equally, when a penguin is the biggest news story of the day, you know that an election hasn’t been terribly exciting.
The story of the Scottish election, much like budget spending commitments, probably revolves around Glasgow. The SNP dreamed of an overall majority and had to endure that dream slipping from hoping for being the biggest party, through accepting Labour being the biggest party to the nightmare of yet another five years of Labour hegemony in Scotland’s largest city.
It is testament of course to the SNP’s ambition, and Labour’s lack of therein, that national election results that see the current governing party winning the most council seats in the nation as a disappointment. The SNP has overall control of Dundee and Angus, and made gains in Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Not too shabby for a Government forced into making cuts. Mind you, if you make an election all about one city before voting begins, don’t complain if journalists make the result all about that city even if the result doesn’t go your way.
The Tories cemented their position as Scotland’s third party and will enjoy being the kingmakers on many a council. Cue bread and butter issues, common sense politics and Ruth Davidson doing her best Annabel Goldie impression. It was far from a disaster for the new kickboxing leader, if a long way short of ‘kickass’.
Disaster is the only word that can be used for how the Lib Dems fared, dropping from 151 councillors to a lowly 71, wiped out in too many areas to mention. It is genuinely sad to see the ashen faces of those innocent souls who have lost their jobs as a direct result of the Faustian pact made by Nick Clegg and co. This is the front line of the mauling of the Liberal Democrats and there seems to be no end in sight of the resentment Scots feel for their propping up of Cameron’s government.
The flip side of this Lib Dem ‘ArmaCleggon’ is that the Greens are finding spaces to get eager bums on Council seats. Edinburgh Greens doubled in number to six, there are more Greens in Glasgow than Lib Dems and Tories combined, there’s a shiny Stirling Green in the shape of Mark Ruskell where Lib Dems were wiped out and Martin Ford returns as an Aberdeenshire councillor. A good night and an overdue foothold for a party that could yet push on from there.
So where does this leave things then?
The SNP has clearly not had the magic springboard from which it can take significant momentum into the independence referendum campaign. Given we are still 2+ years away from this referendum, I’m not entirely sure how important this is and have to wonder if this narrative was merely an angle to make an otherwise lacklustre council election more interesting.
That said, despite finishing first nationally, the strategy clearly went wrong somewhere – expecting three councillors in Govan and ending up with one doesn’t sit right and standing two councillors in Leith and only getting the more junior one in (possibly due to spelling order) is a gaffe. McVey finished ahead of Deputy Lord Provost Rob Munn and it’s very sad to not see Rob back in Edinburgh Council. Shooting for the moon and promising political earthquakes are one thing, but schoolboy errors can’t afford to be made in two years time.
For Labour, this has to be a good night for Johann Lamont. Whether the increase in Labour’s share of the vote was directly her doing or not, she has led a Labour party that has ruffled SNP feathers, if not quite rattled their cage. That, in the conext of the past few years, is clear progress. Furthermore, a Labour machine that looked like it was antiquated and running on fumes has clearly been bashed into shape and refuelled to such an extent that it got the vote out where it counted, delivering overall control at Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire councils. And Glasgow, of course.
It’s probably best to finish by reflecting on a point that the SNP is pushing hard, quite probably to move the news agenda away from the confidence-sapping, bruising defeat in Glasgow.
Mid-term elections tend to involve the public giving the governing party a kicking, that’s certainly what happened in England & Wales. Well, the SNP has governed Scotland for five years, most Scots consider Holyrood to be the primary Parliament and yet, they rewarded the SNP with more councillors than 2007 and the highest vote share.
So, a solid result for the SNP, a good night for Labour, reasons to be optimistic for the Greens, ambivalence for the Tories and penguin pie for everybody else.
#1 by Steve on May 4, 2012 - 11:31 pm
Let’s be clear about one thing. The SNP won. The idea in an election is to get people, you know, elected. The SNP got the most people elected. So that means they won. Simples!
#2 by Tom Cresswell on May 5, 2012 - 12:07 am
That isn’t the best indicator…
I live in Partick West, the largest ward in the country, has four councillors, the whole Council Area of Shetland is smaller and has 26 councillors, so having more councillors in the whole of Scotland is a tiny bit misleading…
Personally, if I were a Lib Dem, I’d be hugely annoyed. Both Labour and the SNP made large gains by winning seat from the Lib Dems, barely winning any seats off of each other, but using these big gains to pretend they beat the other party. Really this election, to extrapolate any information and apply it to a national level, is meaningless… also, I grudgingly have to correct that the SNP did not win Aberdeen, it was actually Labour (to the shock of every Labour party member in Aberdeen).
#3 by Professor Pongoo on May 4, 2012 - 11:32 pm
Think you’ll find that the SNP didnt win Aberdeen Labour did but it’s been a long election and you’re probably tired. SNP did however win Aberdeenshire. I assume that’s what you meant to say Jeff. Cheers the Pongoo.
#4 by Iain Menzies on May 4, 2012 - 11:42 pm
The SNP did not win Steve, nor did labour or anyone else.
All the chat about this has been driving me nuts since last night. There were 32 elections yesterday in Scotland. Not one. When we talk about the SNP winning or not all we are doing is talking to politicos. How many people where I am in Lanarkshire are actually gonna see any difference because the SNP took overall control of Dundee City Council.
Of course i fully expect everyone to ignore this point and go on about how their favoured party won.
I dont want to talk about the Lib Dems on account of how the Lib Dem result is still making my sides hurt.
#5 by Angus McLellan on May 5, 2012 - 1:17 am
Sides hurt? Did you get a kicking from a disgruntled Lib Dem or something? You shouldn’t mock the afflicted.
Some fun with stats for Aidan from the GCC results:
Ward/% ballots with 2nd pref/% with 3rd/%4th/%5th/%6th
1/91/55/27/13/9
2/86/54/19/10/6
3/90/55/28/11/8
4/91/55/25/12/8
5/91/70/28/13/7
I’d do more but I think that’s enough to show that most people aren’t following Aidan’s advice to vote exhaustively. Bit it also shows that a close list system would be at odds with the way with the way a substantial minority of people choose to vote. And the Govan result looks like voter management gone badly wrong and would repay further study by bored amateur psephologists.
#6 by Iain Menzies on May 5, 2012 - 1:43 am
Beyond Paddy Ashdown in his younger days I cant think of many lib dems that could give anyone a kicking….especially right now….
#7 by Steve on May 5, 2012 - 12:37 am
Iain that’s a fair point. I live in Edinburgh and that result is more important to me than all the rest put together. The overall tally is important for control of COSLA though, which itself is more important than ever given the centralising tendencies of the Scottish Government.
#8 by Barbarian on May 5, 2012 - 12:38 am
I wish people would stop saying that the SNP won. They didn’t except in Aberdeen, Angus and Dundee.
Local elections are about winning control of councils, rather than winning the most seats.
Glasgow was an utter failure, given the effort.
Solid result, certainly, but I suspect not what the leadership was hoping for. Their worry is that Labour made gains, and did so with a mediocre leadership in the form of Milliband and Lamont. And Lamont is getting stronger and more effective than anyone thought.
The gains were mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems. This was no overwhelming victory.
Except perhaps for the penguin…….
#9 by Jeff on May 5, 2012 - 1:08 am
I’m with you Barbarian. There’s a childish simplicity at play here and petty bickering over how results are being reported. You don’t get a national winner across 32 councils which is kind of the point of ‘local’ elections.
#10 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2012 - 1:40 am
I think it’s safe to say that this was the most disappointing election campaign in recent history, certainly since I started really getting into politics. This obviously wasn’t helped by the media and Labour obsessing over Murdoch in recent weeks, and as others have said, managing to annoy both sets of Old Firm fans in Glasgow was a bit silly. The SNP made a mistake with Glasgow, effectively putting all their eggs in one basket, and the media lapped it up as it was an easy story to push. I think in all the calamitous behaviour of Glasgow city council, it was easy to forget that Labour’s troubles were completely self-inflicted, and if they hadn’t deselected councillors and started a raft of defections, no one would have even floated the idea of them not remaining the biggest party after the election.
Local mistakes for the SNP too. Aberdeen in particular, where people were determined to oust the council, and Labour rather shamefully played on the UTG issue, deciding to promise to overturn a decision voted for by the public. Unfortunately, I suspect many of those who voted for the Ian Wood Memorial Carbuncle are the kind of people who couldn’t give a toss about council elections. I bet they don’t even drop the project, or if they do it’ll be because their hand is forced.
This was a victory for the SNP, but for some reason it doesn’t feel like one, despite all the caveats about second-term incumbency, first ever majority councils, and the recent media backlash against the SNP and Salmond. I need to think of the Green’s almost doubling their numbers in order to cheer myself up. How much longer can the media keep ignoring them?
#11 by James on May 5, 2012 - 11:21 am
Thanks Doug, we’re delighted with the wee Green surge. It’ll be harder to ignore us, but Newsnight Scotland managed it completely last night, I understand.
#12 by Don Francisco on May 5, 2012 - 7:28 am
I think Doug’s comment about Labour’s troubles in Glasgow being entirely self inflicted gives insight into why this doesn’t quite feel like an SNP victory. This is the first showing by Scottish Labour in a long time where they haven’t been a complete shambles. Many could be forgiven for writing off Scottish Labour’s chances given their recent history, they have now demonstrated competency for the first time.
The worry for the SNP is the potential for Scottish Labour if this performance is a turning point and not a blip.
#13 by scottish_skier on May 5, 2012 - 10:03 am
I rather took yesterday as being good for both the Labour party and the SNP. Nice to see the Greens doing well to.
What was blindingly obvious was that Scotland’s political arena continues to tread an increasingly different path to the UK. Yesterday we saw Scotlands big 2 battling – a big 2 completely different to the big 2 south of the Border. Now that the Tories and Libs are marginal forces, we can’t have everyone vote SNP nor everyone vote Labour – that would not be very healthy!
In terms of the constitutional debate, somewhere in the region of 65% of Labour voters want Devo maxx (even 40% of Tories) and 20-25% will vote for independence, possibly more when the don’t knows make up there mind.
It is slightly ironic given the SNP’s attempts to break into Glasgow that Glasgow will vote quite strongly for independence – it reguarly shows a majority for independence in poll breakdowns and never shows a majority against. Lothians and the Borders are far more marginal for example.
Labour voters will be very important in carrying a YES vote whether the Labour party likes it or not. Yesterday had nothing to do with this hot topic – and all to do with local government. The same battles shall be observed in an independent/devo maxxed Scotland, whichever of these comes to pass; and one will, that can’t be stopped now.
#14 by Alasdair on May 5, 2012 - 8:44 am
Your website lacks share buttons on postings, makes sharing more difficult than it should be :-/
#15 by Jeff on May 5, 2012 - 9:15 am
Thanks for the feedback Alasdair. I’m personally not the whizziest with such things but will look into it if we’re missing a trick.
#16 by James on May 5, 2012 - 11:22 am
Aidan’s the whizziest, but I managed to get that sorted just now. We used to have them and I have no idea where they went. Thanks for the prod.
#17 by Barbarian on May 5, 2012 - 9:23 am
There is something else to consider – local elections are markedly different from national ones.
Party politics do come into it, but personalities do not.
The SNP has to consider that perhaps the Salmond charisma did not work in many places. One SNP leaflet showed Alex ‘n’ Nicola. Let’s be brutally frank – what the hell have they got to do with local candidates? That was a mistake. Labour leaflets only ever had the two local candidates and stuck to local issues, with only a hint of criticism of the SNP.
The SNP leaflet with the candidates finally arrived four days before the election. I had never heard of either candidates, nor had any of my neighbours. No effort was made by any party to canvass votes, but the main Labour candidate was a well known and respected local councillor.
The SNP urgently needs to get more exposure for local members. Some people may be getting a little fed up with Salmond as the focus all the time.
Doug, the media backlash against Salmond is all his own fault. He chose to sup with Murdoch.
#18 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2012 - 5:10 pm
The point I was making was that the Murdoch issue completely distracted from the local elections, and as you say, this was about local issues, not national ones. It’s all very well saying Labour only put local candidates on their leaflets (this is purely a tacit admission that Lamont is a non-entity, though), but they were determined to blacken the SNP’s name through the attacks on Salmond through Murdoch.
And let’s not forget the horrible social media-based point scoring from all sides. I hope we don’t get another campaign like that, but I can guarantee we will.