Another Edinburgh-centric guest post from Better Nation’s esteemed friend Dan Phillips, following his previous posts on the SNP and the Lib Dems locally. Dan’s a press photographer by trade but a political obsessive at heart. A small ‘l’ liberal, he blogs at liberalsellout.wordpress.com.
So there we have it. 20 Labour, 18 SNP, 11 Conservative, 6 Green, and 3 Lib Dems form the new council.
As the journalists and myself pored over these numbers and argued the toss, ‘definitely Lab/Tory’, ‘it has to be Lab/SNP’, ‘Lab/Green/Lib Dem traffic lights for me’, leader of Labour in Edinburgh Andrew Burns swept through with a Cheshire cat grin spread across his face.
‘We’re just trying to work out your coalition Andrew’, I said.
He replied: ‘So am I!’
Everyone tells me this was a boring campaign. Geek that I am, I thought it sensational. Turnout wasn’t awful at just over 40%, Labour won despite most people’s expectations and the Lib Dems provided a Portillo moment with Jenny Dawe’s hopes for safety in Meadows/Morningside being dashed as her seat was removed by the SNP. I’m sorry for her but the Lib Dems had a defeat coming and didn’t try to defend themselves until the last few weeks. The Greens made the jaws drop of supporters and critics alike as they not only won 6 seats but topped the poll in Fountainbridge, removing a ‘safe’ Tory, and then made lightning strike twice as Burgess won the top spot in Southside/Newington. Although I had expected them to win one more, the now councillor who waggled his finger and said: ‘You underestimate us, you Liberal Sell Out’ was proven correct, and I am delighted to be wrong.
Much will now be made of the SNP’s strategy. Their vaulting ambition did over-leap itself. But that doesn’t mean they were wrong to stand two candidates in Leith Walk, or Craigentinny and in many other seats. In a higher turnout those seats could have swung their way. But they also discovered the huge problem standing two risks: the pesky electorate might pick the ‘wrong’ one. They still have a councillor in Leith, just not Rob Munn, so it was a bitter-sweet victory for Adam McVey. I don’t suppose they’ll try it again.
And then the Tories pulled a Nick Cook shaped rabbit out of the Liberton/Gilmerton hat. No one saw that coming, apart from the proud Conservative activist I overheard saying ‘I knew it would work!’ Good for you Nick.
So now comes the hard part. If you follow conventional wisdom, Labour gets to govern and SNP form the opposition, giving the Tories the mathematical possibility of getting in bed with the Reds while the Greens and Lib Dems are left in the cold.
For me that would be a crazy conclusion. Just look at the manifestos. And then look at the behaviour of Greens and Labour at the tailend of the last session, they marched in lockstep on so many things they reeked of a government in waiting. Their policies agree on the end result, Labour say ‘co-operative council’, Greens say ‘Participative Budgets’, they just propose different means. They can work it out.
Which leaves a Lab/Green coalition on 26, short of the magic 30 for a majority of one. But hold your horses, the last administration only had 28, with 17 Lib Dems and 11 SNP until one swapped parties within the coalition.
I suggest that means a traffic light coalition which gives us 29 is a wide open door for the Lib Dems. But do they pass through? They were utterly defeated, reduced to a rump of 3 in the West of the city. But this is not a time for sulking. Either they form a part of the government or they buy one of Edinburgh’s police boxes and have their own meetings within as everyone else gets on with running Edinburgh. They need to prove there’s still a reason for loyalty to the Lib Dems, contributing to the administration is the best way.
Which leaves 29, one short of a proper majority. But the Lord Provost has the casting vote so they could still get their budget through.
Of course I’m ignoring the glaringly obvious. A Labour/SNP coalition. It could work, of course. In fact it’d have a stonking majority. But better informed people than I talk of the deep personal animosity between some of the councillors. Those hatchets buried in each other’s backs will have to be dislodged and the wounds healed over. If there’s any message to take from the last administration it’s don’t form a coalition if you can’t agree. Even if they don’t form a coalition at some level arguments that stem from a different political era need to be consigned to history. Edinburgh doesn’t need a dysfunctional 5 years, it needs leadership and with a divided council that means co-operation. So it could work.
But the Labour/Green love-in is such a tantalising prospect and with so many ideas bursting from their manifestos this would be a chance to set Edinburgh on a new course. The Lib Dems are surely compelled to join this coalition of the willing or they risk irrelevance. This is the only extra traffic light Edinburgh requires. Red. Yellow. Green.
#1 by Gavin Hamilton on May 5, 2012 - 12:14 pm
Well, what can I say as a life long Liberal and Liberal Democrat – that went well!
Good analysis Dan. I don’t agree with everything you write but this is a very decent piece.
We all knew this was coming a year ago. Things were always going to get worse for us before they get better and fighting locals as the lead party what with the Trams, some big budget challenges and LibDem group’s ‘talent’ for self promotion was likely to lead to another pasting.
Well, we got that, but it was slightly worse than I expected. I had hoped for 7 and feared for 4 – we got 3!
Interestingly, I don’t think the liberal (small l) vote has disappeared. In large part, it has gone Green and to the National Party of Scotland.
Places like Meadows, Fountainbridge and Stockbridge have always had an inbuilt liberal block. People who are in touch with their inner tank-top and eat vegetables. Since we have blotted our copy book it has helped the Greens get 6 councillors and some big wins.
The Nats are the opposition to Labour – there to give scrutiny and an alternative way to do things. I think Labour need that. As such they carry the responsibility of representing many who are cautious about how a Labour administration will perform.
So in a non tribal sense I don’t dispair for our city.
I’ve been a Liberal for a long time and I’ve met in both taxis and in large halls. I had always felt things to be ok because the ‘market’ demand for a centre party was there. A pragmatic party with a perfect mix of individualism and collectivism, strong on the environment and civil liberties and positive about Europe and the need for effective devolution within the UK (Federalsim even).
I’m a bit more worried this time – in Scotland at least. I saw the Greens come through in the late 80s but they faded. Today they are much more coherent, rounded and a mature proposition. I think they have potentially more staying power as we look jaded and yesterday’s party.
There has always been a strong place for a non socialist alternative to the Conservative party – that is in a nutshell what the LibDems were in the 20th century. The Nats and the LibDems (Alliance in the 80s) have ebbed and flowed around this one over the last 40 years – over time and over different regions of Scotland. Well currently the Nats have well and truly blocked us out of that one. It doesn’t help that we have blotted our left of centre copy-book with the coalition and everything that that involves during an era of global financial crisis.
The point is there isn’t really an opening there as the Nats are currently much more than just a nationalist party or the party of Independence.
So where does that leave us – in Edinburgh terms.
Well, I think we need to go back to our areas and form Focus action groups and get on with some of the things we do best – community action. We need to stay engaged and involved. I think in Edinburgh a core of activists and members will remain in the parts of the city where we have been strong.
For us in a lot of ways politics was re-booted 12 months ago. So we now put this behind us and move on.
This means we can start to hold the big groups on the council to account. Including the Nats and the Greens as they represent the interests of liberal minded voters (amongst others of course).
We can free of being in administration during a difficult period promote our ideas for the city and constructive criticisms of what goes on.
I actually believe the LIbDems have done a lot of good across Edinburgh in recent years. The LibDem councillors increased nursery places and care for older people and started building houses again. They also increased recycling, and importantly sorted out the financial mess the city faced after the previous administration. (Leaving aside the costs associated with the Tram project).
In the manifesto the group put together they developed a lot of detailed and valuable thinking of where the city should go next and what the priorites are.
The point is that stump politicking or internet trolling aside there is some good thinking there to continue to contribute albeit as a depleted group and to continue to think and develop ideas is a key thing we should continue to do proudly.
I don’t know what is to come in the years ahead. The Nats may decline if they loose the referendum in 2014. They may face pressures and fissures between those who see independence as building a new socialist Utopia in Scotland and those who see themselves as an effcetive disciplined centre left alternative to Labour. Who knows.
The point is we have re-booted the computer and the LibDems should get out there and campaign in this city.
#2 by Catherine on May 5, 2012 - 12:14 pm
Traffic lights coalition sounds like a good idea, otherwise a Labour/ Green minority could also work. It some ways minority might be better as it would be a complete break from the incompetence of the previous administration.
#3 by Barbarian on May 5, 2012 - 12:27 pm
Good analysis. I think the Lib Dems generally have been hamstrung by Clegg, and to the extent that they are going to have to restructure.
I cannot see Labour and the SNP forming a coalition. But politicians should remember that they are elected to serve the people, not their parties.
#4 by Gavin Hamilton on May 5, 2012 - 12:33 pm
Time will tell on Clegg – but its really not going well at the moment. There is no doubt however that he lacks Scottish appeal!
Which is sad after a popular Scottish leader like Charlie Kennedy and Paddy Ashdown who, although not a Scot, was reasonably popular in scotland too.
And most importantly we have broken one of the cardinal rules of modern Scottish politics – we’ve gone with the Tories.
#5 by James on May 5, 2012 - 12:40 pm
Looks like Andrew Burns has other ideas.
#6 by Angus McLellan on May 5, 2012 - 4:34 pm
Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he? Even – and perhaps that should really be *especially* – if he expects to end up with a minority administration when the dust settles.
As an outside observer a Red-Green minority administration looks like as good a reflection of “change people voted for” in Edinburgh as anything. Between them the two parties would have gained eight of the thirteen seats that changed hands. And twenty six councillors seems like enough if Andrew Burns carries on the way he’s started.
#7 by Dan on May 5, 2012 - 1:40 pm
A coalition of ‘all the talents’ is a noble sentiment but I feel a forlorn one. The scepticism voiced by the SNP on that seems to put paid to it as well. The Tories hope of a pan-unionist alliance seems odd. This isn’t Northern Ireland.
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