The idea that Scotland’s a decisively more left-wing country than the rest of the UK is at least in part a myth, perpetuated largely by the marked disparity in the Tory vote share north and south of the border, combined with the associated myth that the SNP are a left-wing party now.
In 2007 and again in 2011, it’s clear that many natural Tories voted SNP. Some did so, especially in 2011, because the SNP’s position on taxation was just as right-wing as the Tories. Many many more did so, especially in 2007, simply because the SNP could end Labour’s hegemony at Holyrood. Others no doubt saw a kindred spirit in Alex Salmond, despite his leftwing views on currently reserved matters like defence and international affairs.
The deal was always this – we’ll vote for the most credible party to the right of Labour (to be clear, I don’t regard Labour as left-wing any more either), but in the unlikely event you ever manage to bring your referendum forward, we’ll vote no. I’m sure some business types have genuinely come round to independence, especially given the SNP desire to race to the bottom on corporation tax, but for most I suspect that remains the deal. Run Scotland, Mr Salmond, unless and until the Scottish Tories get their act together.
But what about the SNP majority now? No-one expected that, not the over-exposed Mr Curtice, not the swathes of new SNP backbenchers, not the Great Puddin’ O’ the Chieftain Race himself. And certainly not the Tories who went tartan, who now face a referendum which they must fear losing, given the relative quality of the leadership and the relative campaigning nous on both sides.
Might tactically-minded Tories out there not now wish to pull the balance back in the other direction, take any opportunity to bring the SNP back to minority levels? The Nats proved they could run a competent minority administration – in fact, their period of minority was probably the most competent in Holyrood’s history.
If Bill Walker resigns as an MSP (and Kate’s right, he should), what happens in Dunfermline? Bill won with a narrow 590 majority, and the by-election dynamics would be entirely different. If it’s a seen as a local vote for against independence, Labour would have to be pretty confident even if John Park doesn’t contest it, as Kate suggests. That 590 majority looks even smaller when you consider the almost 8,000 combined Tory and Lib Dem votes from last year. Sure, the Nats’ election machine remains the most formidable ever assembled in Scotland, but this is not natural Nat territory.
I love by-election drama, and I think Bill has a moral responsibility to let his constituents be represented by someone who’s not a wife-beater, but if I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP leadership were saying “Go!” in public and desperately hoping in private to keep their effective majority exactly where it is today.
Edit: I’ve taken the other Bill Walker out, the former Tory MP. The coincidence in naming amused me, buy think I meant Nicky Fairbairn anyway and I don’t want to associate the Tory one with domestic violence.
#1 by douglas clark on April 8, 2012 - 11:59 am
James,
So, Labour aren’t left wing, the SNP aren’t left wing, thus, by definition Scotland isn’t left wing.
On these terms, you are clearly right!
#2 by James on April 8, 2012 - 12:06 pm
Voting doesn’t always indicate where people’s actual left/right position is. On several matters (e.g. rail renationalisation) Scots and the rest are all clearly to the left of both Labour and the SNP.
#3 by Barbarian on April 8, 2012 - 12:42 pm
How would the SNP contest a bye-election? They would have to promote independence, otherwise they will be open to accusations of running scared.
But will Walker actually resign? I don’t think he will.
As Kate points out, he will continue to vote with the SG, so stand by for conspiracy rumours about underhand deals with the SNP and so on.
Best he goes now, and see how the bye-election pans out.
#4 by mav on April 8, 2012 - 1:39 pm
I know in your closing paragraph, you mentioned that the Bill Walker pictured was now the wife beating one, but I’m still unsure why you used the image. Until that final paragraph, I assumed you’d used google image, and got the wrong Bill Walker. To use his picture today, without a clear context, seems unfair on a decent, if ineffective, man. People may assume the two Bill Walkers are one and the same!
#5 by Kieran on April 8, 2012 - 2:15 pm
Can the SNP force a by-election if he does not want to resign? They can boot him from the party but I don’t think anyone can force a by-election.
#6 by Alec on April 8, 2012 - 2:23 pm
As I’ve said before, the constant need of some commenters to declare themselves to be members of a Recusancy which is keeping the old style “Left” alive says more about themselves than any serious political analysis.
When this label is applied, simultaneously, to opposition to some form of ID cards and generous state benefits; generous business incentives or corporation tax and promotion of the public sector; opposition to certain foreign policy issues… then it comes across as meaningless self-congratulation.
As for Walker, he should go with or without his consent. The one about individuals being elected not Parties – even setting aside the fact that he was no elected on an independent ticket – dates from a time when the judiciary, military civil service couldn’t be trusted not to be swayed by the Executive.
There are quite a few members at Holyrood and Westminster who I would not miss one little bit if they were expelled tomorrow.
~alec
#7 by FormerChampagneSocialist on April 8, 2012 - 3:09 pm
James
I am a right wing Nat, who would never vote Tory and never has. I have always regarded the tories as a fundamentally anti-Scottish party and nothing i’ve seen recently changes my mind. That is why they get nae votes here – its not because of their policies, many of which are quietly popular in Scotland.
I vehemently disagree with the SNP on most aspects of policy, and would most certainly not regard them as being right wing in any respect. So, I think you’re way off the mark there. When the SNP start reducing our bloated public sector I’ll start regarding them as right wing.
On a broader point I think your piece implies that right-wingers have lent their vote to the Nats, but will take it away again come the indyref. I’m sure that’s right in many cases, but not in all. I know plenty of right-of-centre Nats who can tolerate them being wrong on the small picture items because they are so fundamentally correct on the major question of our age – independence for Scotland.
Post-independence, there will be a significant right of centre Scottish party, and as in most countries around the world they will taste power as the electoral cycle turns. Until then I’ll vote SNP pretty much regardless of their positioning on the political spectrum.
#8 by James on April 8, 2012 - 6:41 pm
But the SNP are cutting the public sector harder and faster even than the Tories: what do you want?
One point of contact – you may be so right wing that everyone looks left, and I may be sufficiently left wing that everyone at Holyrood outside the Greens and a couple of individuals elsewhere looks right wing.
#9 by Craig Gallagher on April 8, 2012 - 7:36 pm
That’s pretty much your position, James, which makes it hard to countenance your description of the SNP as right-wing. You’re pretty much the only person anywhere arguing it, from the party’s supporters to their worst detractors.
I’m pretty left-wing myself (or so I like to think) and I take great pride in being associated with the Scottish National Party. But that suggests a fundamental issue that could do with being resolved: what does left-wing really mean these days? In many ways, it’s a pick-and-mix of statist policies which are difficult to conceive of in a neo-liberal free market economy. By your definition, as I have followed it over the last few months, you would regard Clement Attlee as right-wing. And that’s where I get off the trip you’re on.
#10 by James on April 8, 2012 - 8:49 pm
Craig, can we at least agree that policies which redistribute away from the poorest who rely on local services and towards those in big unrevalued homes is right wing?
#11 by Craig Gallagher on April 8, 2012 - 10:35 pm
Yes. Which I why I remain disappointed at there being no mention of LIT in this Parliament. The council tax is probably the one thing I would completely overhaul in Scotland if I had a magic wand – that and the trains – but I don’t accept that freezing it is inherently a right-wing thing to do. Preventing the increase of an unfair tax, while a tax cut, falls somewhere between left and right wing.
#12 by Angus McLellan on April 9, 2012 - 1:04 am
We could, if that was the effect of the policy. But you’ve begged the question there. Is that the effect, or are you just cherry-picking data from the extreme ends of the income distribution and ignoring the mass of people in the middle? Hmm.
#13 by Commenter on April 10, 2012 - 10:38 am
I’ve no comment to make other than to say how lovely it is to see a correct usage of the phrase “begs the question”. Carry on.
#14 by James on April 10, 2012 - 11:42 am
It’s not cherry-picking – that’s the effect at the top and bottom. The effect in the middle is more mixed, obviously.
#15 by Robert Blake on April 10, 2012 - 12:45 pm
I’ve seen you talk about this “cutting faster” before and wondered what you meant, given that the SNP works within a fixed budget
I guess you mean the Council Tax freeze.
I have a problem with this, and it’s a problem the Tories created and other parties perpetuated.
Council tax can’t be increased just for the rich. You increase it for the rich, then it gets increased for the poor. The Tories built that into both the Community Charge and into the Council Tax.
The next problem, which many who focus on this ignore, is that people in poverty are paying full-whack Council Tax. The notion of ending the freeze might make sense of the poor were given relief from the Tax, but not all are.
Moreover, until the last year of the 2003-2007 Labour Executive, Labour Councils were increasing the Council Tax at an alarming rate.
So, speaking selfishly, given increases in fuel & food costs, and effective pay cuts for the last few years, pardon me for welcoming a CT freeze.
Now. Although it’s a LibDem & SNP idea, I would favour the notion of a Local Income Tax instead, though I believe the Greens favour something like the old Rates system. Of course with either there are anomalies and they would need sorted.
The SNP lost the LiT argument in 2007-2011, and some tricks by Westminster then suggest they would be loathe to reintroduce it before Independence, but if your mantra of “deeper and faster” relies on the Council Tax, I think you are wrong
#16 by James on April 10, 2012 - 12:57 pm
Virtually nothing in there is based on fact apart from the fact that you’re happy with the freeze. Local taxation is 100% devolved (with the caveat that only property taxes called “the Council Tax” attract CT Benefit). So the SNP could have revalued, rebanded, exempted those in smaller properties, anything. What they chose to do was, in the words of a Tory friend of mine, “progressive – the more you earn, progressively, the more you save”. Also, we’re not in favour of the rates, we’re supporters of Land Value Tax.
#17 by Robert Blake on April 10, 2012 - 2:04 pm
As I said, something like the Rates, which were a land value system.
Revaluation under CT brings the same problem as just pushing the bands up
If you recall, the SNP *tried* to do something about this, but it got voted down
I’m Glasgow based,
So I think my statements hold, cheers
I suspect the 2011 manifesto was a lot more small-c conservative/don’t scare the horses, than it might have been. The polls favoured Labour and all the psephologists agreed.
The best any of the SNP folk could have hoped for was a minority government with maybe some Green involvement, though I think the Greens would have backed Labour rather than the SNP
Given that, you have a surprisingly modest manifesto given the majority that resulted.
The SNP have to fight against the depiction of them being
– One Party State. You yourself said they were “not in listening mode”
– Tackling legislation that they did not put to the electorate in a manifesto
The bug in the machine from the last Parliament, that Westminster would withhold any and all local tax relief if it wasn’t CT, hasn’t gone away.
I said that poor folk still need to pay CT at all or near full rate. E.g. a person on InCap, partner with 18,000 a year, 1 kid, gets the princely CT rebate of 70p a week (Band C)
£18,000 isn’t the poorest, but that situation (and not a fantasy situation at that) is by no means well off. You put up the bands or revalue, up go the costs
#18 by James on April 10, 2012 - 3:08 pm
I’ll say it again. It’s entirely up to the SNP now what the structure is. They could legislate to abolish it, exempt those on low incomes, they could base local taxation on whatever they like. Retaining it was what they promised, irrespective of the damage. The longer you forcibly freeze it the more worthless local democracy becomes and the worse the squeeze on the services relied upon by the poorest.
And no, the rates aren’t like LVT at all. They were based on a theoretical rental value for the property. LVT is based on the value solely of the land on which property sits, and it therefore encourages efficient use of same.
#19 by Doug Daniel on April 10, 2012 - 3:24 pm
But revaluing all the properties in Scotland would not come cheap, especially if you wanted to do it properly – my sister looked at trying to get her flat revalued as the bands in her block of flats seemed almost random, and apparently this was because the original valuations were little more than guesswork most of the time, particularly in rural areas where the people deciding the bands didn’t have the time to visit every single property in the country. Even then, revaluation doesn’t fix the problem, namely the banding not being in any way related to a person’s income.
Similarly, rebanding only works if you assume everyone in a lower banding house has a low income and everyone in a high banded house has a high income. It just doesn’t work like that. Council Tax is just an awful way of collecting tax, but since the CT benefit would be taken away if it was replaced, we would effectively get punished for trying to create a fairer system.
“Local taxation is 100% devolved (with the caveat that only property taxes called “the Council Tax” attract CT Benefit)”
100% devolved means no caveats. So it’s not 100% devolved.
Perhaps if Labour had been a bit more grown-up in the run up to the 2011 election, we could have been on our way to scrapping council tax for a local income tax. We’ll just have to wait until independence now.
#20 by Doug Daniel on April 8, 2012 - 9:46 pm
I was actually going to suggest that your idea of where the centre is and where everyone else’s idea of it is might not necessarily be the same thing, but you’ve suggested it yourself! At least you recognise that this is a possibility, James.
Here’s a thought: people are always keen to portray themselves as centre-left or centre-right. At the very most, they’ll call themselves simply left- or right-wing. Very few people (if any) stick up their hand to say “I’m a left-wing extremist!” Many would portray the SSP as extreme left, but I doubt any of their members would consider themselves to be so.
Indeed, you yourself suggest FCS may be “so right-wing…” yet only say that you may be “sufficiently left wing…”, which is far more tempered language (which merely shows that you are a fellow humanoid). I would suggest that you are in fact very much on the left, James, or at the very least that the Greens are definitely the most left-wing of the five main parties. That’s certainly not meant as an insult (it’s a compliment, in fact), but I think it’s the reason why you portray the SNP as being anywhere on the right, whereas Tories and Orange Book Liberals laugh at such an idea.
For what it’s worth, I would say the SNP are socially left-wing and economically in the centre – a mix of left- and right-wing economics. Bear in mind that the social democratic Nordic Model relies on such a balance – Finland in particular is often cited as being far more business-friendly than even the USA. There’s nothing wrong with being in the centre – after all, it’s where most of the population are.
#21 by Eric McLean on April 8, 2012 - 3:42 pm
James, its clear that many natural socialists voted for the SNP as well, in fact there were a lot of Catholics and Protestants who also voted, then there were quite a few Republicans and Monarchists, who voted alongside Euro Sceptics and Pro-EU voters! Amazing isn’t it. I dare say there are those who want to keep the sterling, adopt the euro or have our own currency.
The SNP is a vehicle for independence, after which we can then have the additional political discussions. All the rest you are talking about is just fluff!
#22 by James on April 8, 2012 - 6:39 pm
Dude, if you think climate change, the monarchy, civil liberties or poverty is “fluff” it’s no wonder we’re in different parties.
#23 by Indy on April 8, 2012 - 6:48 pm
Dude you ony just held your own in the Scottish elections and in my view you are probably going to go down in the locals. I regret that, I genuinely do, but until you guys start talking to real voters and making yourselves relevant to them instead of playing political compass you will not start to pick up new support far less be able to really influence policy.
#24 by James on April 8, 2012 - 8:53 pm
Fine, obviously Greens talk to the public on the doorsteps, and if you think their concerns are primarily constitutional, not social and economic, you must live in a different Scotland to me. And I won’t apologise for pointing out the regressive policies of this government. Feel free not to care, and feel free to regard a well-funded spin-based election win as a philosophical endorsement, but it ain’t necessarily so.
#25 by Angus McLellan on April 8, 2012 - 7:07 pm
Perhaps someone was reading too much Braudel.
But what’s your plan James? I’m happy enough with “just” independence as a start, the freedom to achieve freedom rather than the real deal. But you want more. So how will you achieve it. Where, for example, is your campaign for an Icelandic-style convention working on delivering a constitution de bas en haut rather than the SNP’s “here’s one MacCormick made earlier” approach. If you wait until the votes are counted it will be too late and the path of least resistance will be to stay close to what exists today.
#26 by James on April 8, 2012 - 8:55 pm
Angus, good question, but I’m a civilian and an observer now, if there’s no appetite for a genuine debate about our future constitution outside the Greens, I’m ok not banging my head against that particular wall. It’s not like the Nats are in listening mode, understandably to an extent.
#27 by Robert Blake on April 10, 2012 - 12:51 pm
I think you are being unfair to Nats here
I think there is, for example, a fair amount of Republicanism in the SNP, however the fixation is on Independence after that Scots of all stripes can shape the county anew.
It has to be a post-Independence. If you go all “Student Politics” and say “Well, I want Independence, but it must be exactly THIS flavour of Independence, Republican, Zero-Growth, Sustainable, etc etc OR NOTHING!!!!” then |I suspect you’re not going to get very far.
It is actually those of us who wish to retain the Union who need to focus on the whole as it stands, but that’s another post.
#28 by patronsaintofcats on April 8, 2012 - 6:36 pm
One thing that surprised me in a council by-election in Dumfriesshire in Summer 2011 was the number of Tories surveyed at the doors who support independence. I was pretty shocked at this revelation, it was completely opposite what I thought the response would be. In the end the seat was taken by Labour, but the turnout was quite low (around 30%) and the conservative candidate (an unknown) came in a respectable 2nd place, not far behind the eventual winner. I’m very concerned about the dynamics of the South of Scotland and support for independence based on my involvement in elections over the past couple of years. I truly hope the SNP has a plan for this region, because what I’ve seen the activists are not going to get the job done without help.
#29 by Martinb on April 8, 2012 - 8:54 pm
James
I don’t regard all that other stuff as fluff, but the independence movement should be (and I believe is) a cross left/right spectrum coalition. Even though I have very definite views on all those topics – many of which chime with yours – I welcome right wingers into the coalition, knowing that with independence we will get an outcome that better tracks the views of the Scottish body politic.
In the decades following independence, I fully expect (and hope and will argue) that this will be markedly to the left of where UK governments have been throughout my adult life. I doubt that this will be the case for centuries though. And this is where we should be as a grown up nation – we can and will have that ongoing debate, and need to include all shades of Scottish political opinion in it. This is why I understand and disagree with the short termist Kelman ‘vote for independence for our lefty nuclear free, free heavy beer paradise’ argument.
Given that the SNP is the biggest pro-independence game in town right now, it’s right and proper that there be pro independence voters and politicians who can swallow the social democracy in the short term and be members, candidates and elected officials who – south of the border – might be Tories.
#30 by FormerChampagneSocialist on April 8, 2012 - 11:29 pm
Type your comment here
You make me sound like a lunatic! If it helps, I’d say I am right of Obama but left of Bush, in economic terms at least. On the other hand, I’m socially liberal, pro-immigration and republican. Lucky the SNP is a broad church!
#31 by douglas clark on April 9, 2012 - 12:56 am
James,
I have fought the culture wars on the right side of the climate change arguement. I am a republican. I am 100% for civil liberties, more, sadly, than most. I am agin poverty, but who ain’t?
I think, fingers crossed, that we could be a better nation. I am even with you on trying to establish a decent constitution.
But, you knew there had to be a but, we will not get any of that without independence. Indeed, the longer we are in a United Kingdom, the gloomier I get about achieving any of these objectives.
Vote strategically, vote SNP.
#32 by Robert Blake on April 10, 2012 - 8:57 pm
Type your comment here
You don’t think Land Value can change as a result of factors such as improvements and location, which brings you back to Rates?
#33 by James on April 10, 2012 - 9:37 pm
It’s unequivocally not affected by the buildings made on the land. That’s how the valuation works. Local improvements and investment – eg public transport – yes, it’s designed in part to capture some of that back for future investment. Rates assess whether those investments affect the rent you could charge, which has a very different economic effect.