Except, unless you’ve been living under a local rock recently, the local government elections in May are already causing a lot of trouble.
Glasgow (Labour majority) and Edinburgh (SNP + Lib Dem coalition) councils budgets nearly failed, Stirling (SNP minority) councils actually did. There’s a variety of rammies in progress as a result of the funding settlement, the power dynamics between the parties and there’s doubtless more brewing.
Having said that, council elections are possibly the last vestige of truly representative democracy. Except perhaps in particularly contentious places like Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen councils don’t do “high politics” and even with those there’s specific local issues in play: Edinburgh has the trams fiasco; Aberdeen Union Terrace Gardens and Donald Trump’s boondoggle; Glasgow has roughly 1 in 10 Scots living in it.
Most people outside of Glasgow and North Lanarkshire probably can’t accurately describe the political make up of their councils executive. I’d put 50p and a pound of grapes on more people being able to name one of their Councillors, though. What they do do are pot holes, buses, parks and dog poo. Not to mention councillors being the first port of call for folk having trouble with truculent social services, benefits and planning departments. Prosaic stuff compared to the constitution or energy policy but definitely the sharp end of politics.
It’s that prosaic stuff that’s likely to determine elections in many wards, and probably enough to swing control one way or another in many councils. Yes, there’s a national effect where some people vote on whether they like Alex Salmond, Johann Lamont or Ruth Davidson but because these local elections are decoupled from national elections for the first time in a long time that’s likely to be more muted. That muting means there’s a bigger personal vote for those candidates that are running again and have helped people in the past, a bigger anti-vote for those that haven’t done well by their constituents and a chance for new faces to make a meaningful impression.
Because of that, it’s going to be an ugly, bitter, vicious election. Things are going to be said and done which aren’t edifying, illuminating or even true. It’s unlikely to be Daley’s Chicago vicious, but only because nobody has the capability for that sort of politics. If they did, they would use it.
Some people will argue that the stakes are far higher: that the SNP have to retain their existing councils and make substantial gains; conversely that Labour has to either hold control in Glasgow or take Edinburgh. I’m not convinced about that. Without falling into cliche, Scots have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to decouple different elections.
Prosaic as it is, it seems to me that the local elections are going to come down to two things: organisation and effort. If you’re prepared to work hard and you’ve got some sense you’ll be ok. If you’re not well, good luck with that.
#1 by Chris on March 1, 2012 - 1:31 pm
The main point is that with PR having any council run by one party is unlikely. Labour would have been unlikely to retain overall control of Glasgow last time if the SNP stood more candidates rather than only standing one in most wards.
And it would not be the first time that Labour have lost Glasgow. A SNP/Tory coalition ran Glasgow in the late 1970s.
#2 by Aidan on March 1, 2012 - 3:23 pm
That’s very true – the SNP have bankable gains in Glasgow purely down to running more candidates.
#3 by Bill Pickford on March 1, 2012 - 9:45 pm
Here in deepest, darkest East Ayrshire the SNP are putting up 2 candidates in 8 out of the 9 wards.
Around the Kilmarnock area this might be a good idea, but I reckon when you move into the mining villages all they’ll do is split their vote and let Labour cruise through the middle – I think this is one council Labour will re-capture.
#4 by Angus McLellan on March 1, 2012 - 11:52 pm
In Glasgow it’ll be much more interesting to see what happens to the other parties than to find out exactly what the balance of SNP and Labour seats will be. Can the Greens dig in in Southside Central (I might just give them my first preference)? Can David Meikle survive as The Last Tory Councillor in Glasgow (five votes is no margin at all)? And how will the Dead Wood do? And so on. I can’t remember being this interested in the council elections ever.
Of course the media will disagree with me. For them the key factor will be whether Labour can keep control of Glasgow. Seems improbable given the arithmetic, but no doubt it will be reported as the dawn of a new age of Labour dominance if it happens and as the final nail in the coffin if it doesn’t. But neither of those claims will be at all true.
#5 by Aidan on March 2, 2012 - 12:04 am
I think the Lib Dem collapse might play into Meikle gaining a friend if he survives, probably either in Hillhead or Newlands/Auldburn.
Don’t think the Deselected will prosper, and I’m quite worried about the prospects for a Labour led coalition if we emerge as the largest party…
#6 by Indy on March 2, 2012 - 7:33 am
Danny Alderslowe not standing again. Shame cos he was good.
#7 by James on March 2, 2012 - 10:41 am
An inspirational guy, I quite agree.
#8 by Allan on March 1, 2012 - 7:09 pm
Rather bizarely i got my first bit of election literature yesterday, with Labour clearly desperate to regain control of Renfrewshire Council.
I think that the council elections were always going to be petty and vicious (especially with with winners of the popular vote here in Renfrewshire for the last two elections on the losing side each time – SNP lost in 2003, Labour finished level on seats but could not form a coalition in 2007). However with the Independence referendum never really that far from the surface, i suspect that the animosity generated on that issue will spill over into the Council elections.
#9 by Derick fae Yell on March 2, 2012 - 8:00 pm
is it just me, or are multi-member wards a crock. What’s wrong with single member STV I say.
#10 by Aidan on March 2, 2012 - 8:02 pm
LOL! (and if that wasn’t sarcastic, quite a lot: http://aidan.skinner.me.uk/posts/meh2av)
#11 by Danny on March 3, 2012 - 7:59 pm
The SNP were a shoe in to be the largest party in Falkirk before the Joyce scandal, they’re now a shoo-in overall majority.
One thing I will say though is parties are way less important than candidates in council elections. 3 of my 4 incumbents are excellent councillors(One SNP, one Labour, one independent) and I’ll be marking them 1, 2 and 3.
Interestingly the 4th incumbent is an SNP who scraped into fourth place last time and has done very little. The SNP should really think about deselecting him.
Point being council polls are far more about personal voting, because speaking as a Union man myself voting for the incumbent SNP councillor who topped the poll last time and is a fine man won’t impact too much on the referendum.
I expect little change at all tbh, probably a sizeable swing to the Nats(Labour actually topped the poll 5 years ago) but nowhere near what some predict.
I do think they’ll seize control of Glasgow though. It’ll be interesting to see what the “Glasgow Labour party” choose to do if they hold the balance of power. Will they rejoin Labour or back the Nats?
#12 by Aidan on March 3, 2012 - 8:07 pm
I wouldn’t bet on any deselected Labour councilors being returned, let alone holding the balance of power.
#13 by Angus McLellan on March 4, 2012 - 1:20 am
I’d sooner bet on Tommy Morrison getting back than the SNP ending up with overall control of Glasgow. And with the surprising news that Danny Alderslowe isn’t running (so I live in a cave, but who is the new Green candidate?) that brings up another point. In Glasgow this is an election with a relatively low incumbency factor where Labour and the SNP are concerned. Could that matter?