There is no doubt what the worst motion in Scottish politics was this week, it was the headbutting motion that Eric Joyce (allegedly) made in Strangers Bar at Westminster (*boom boom*). It’s a rather spectacularly public fall from an already rather graceless position for the MP and, despite the unavoidable, scabby mirth behind headlines such as ‘Labour MP hit 5 Tories in brawl’, this could be the final nail in the Falkirk MP’s political coffin after a recent charge sheet that includes failing to provide a drink-drive breath test and expenses scandals.
We largely enjoy an appropriate approach of innocent until proven guilty in this country, and so we should, but that nonetheless won’t, nor shouldn’t, prevent speculation surrounding this situation. One could argue that it is for constituents to decide if their MP is fit for purpose, and with a 7,843 majority in 2010, despite the expenses controversy, who outside of Falkirk should say that Eric should step aside, whatever happens here? Nonetheless, if, and it is a big if, this legal process results in a criminal conviction, it is difficult to see how a by-election can be avoided. Denis Canavan is already calling for one to be held.
A by-election in Falkirk would, of course, be a two-horse race with the SNP, who won the equivalent Holyrood seat(s) in 2011, going up against Labour. It could prove to be a mini dress rehearsal for the independence referendum at large and could be an opportunity for Salmond to start building some momentum, not dissimilar to the ‘political earthquake’ in Glasgow East all those years ago. For that reason, one would expect that the Nats’ campaign warchest would be deeply delved into, and with Labour’s coffers being fuller than only that of Rangers FC, the contest could well be closer than it otherwise would be in a Westminster contest.
There is a risk of getting too far ahead of one’s self here of course, it is not after all in Labour’s interests for a by-election to be held at this stage of the political cycle with so little to gain from one, so efforts behind the scenes to prevent one would no doubt take place.
For now, it is sufficient to only regret that the old Scottish leftie metaphorical rhetoric of going down to London to knock lumps out of Tories has been regrettably taken literally in this instance and that politics in general is the main loser here, apart from Eric Joyce of course.
#1 by Indy on February 24, 2012 - 6:09 pm
An MP convicted of common assault would have to resign basically.
But I don’t know what shape the by-election would take.
It depends. There may be something wrong with EJ, he may be ill. People have behaved in extraordinary ways as a result of stress or mental breakdown before.
We don’t know if there is anything like that in the background yet but if I was a friend of EJ I’d be worried about him. It would be nice if people could hold their horses till things are a bit clearer.
#2 by Barbarian on February 25, 2012 - 1:52 pm
I agree. People are jumping to all sorts of conclusions. He’s only been charged. That does not mean he is guilty. That is for the courts to decide, not blogland.
#3 by gavin on February 26, 2012 - 10:44 am
Comments in the press, by his Labour collegues in the main, seem to indicate he has had a problem for some time. Westminster is a kind of closed society but surely those close to him could have raised concerns with the whips or the speakers office. Of course they may have done so and there could be others like him. Given the omerta like atmosphere between both politicians and political journalists we may never get to know what really occurs.