The SNP appear finally to have woken up to the threat posed to the referendum by their support for Scottish membership of the Eurozone – given the incessant diet of Eurocrisis stories – and John Swinney has this week made a brave effort to kick it into the longest grass he could find. Leaving aside the debate about whether an independent Scotland would have to reapply to join the EU, or conversely would be compelled to join the Euro, what would be the best approach to the currency question for Scotland?
There are four basic options. Let’s call them Ireland, Montenegro, Norway and Sweden.
Ireland joined the Euro at the start, back in 1999, and it’s fair to say it seemed like a good idea at the time. Initially the Irish enjoyed an economic boom, built on low interest rates and low corporation tax, but as we know, it proved unstable to say the least. If the good times had kept rolling, it would have been hard to argue with, but more than a decade in the single currency has demonstrated the serious downsides to Euro membership. They surrendered control of monetary policy first, and now, with the new treaty, are about to surrender some control over fiscal policy too. Austerity is biting hard, the bond markets may again try to pick them off the back of the herd, and only the most diehard Euro-enthusiasts see joining their Euro woes as the way forward at this point. To get to this point we would in any case need to operate for a period with our own currency.
Montenegro uses the Euro, having previously used the Deutsche Mark (in the same way much of the former Yugoslavia did, de facto) but is not a member of the Eurozone. They have no true central bank of the form familiar from other independent nation states, and no say over monetary policy, and their fiscal policy is only limited by their desire to join the EU and become a full member of the Eurozone. A country in this position retains the option to start their own currency up (and, as the Velvet Divorce shows, this is easier than might be assumed), but their economic independence is limited to say the least.
Norway remains fully independent, having rejected EEC (as was) membership in a 1972 referendum. They run their own currency, and retain complete fiscal and monetary freedom (aside from any bowing and scraping to the markets they feel obliged to engage in). Through membership of the European Economic Area they gain access to EU markets as if they were members, and must comply with almost all single market requirements. The downside here, clearly, is the Norwegians have no formal input into those rules, and, oddly, they are required to contribute more than a billion Euros towards social and economic cohesion funds despite being ineligible for any funding in return.
Sweden is a full EU member, but has retained the krona despite being notionally committed to Euro membership, and despite not having an optout. As yet, though, they haven’t even gone into the ERM2 convergence zone, the essential next step if they were to join the Euro: and in 2003 moves towards the Euro were rejected in a referendum. The country’s economic policy is largely in domestic hands, both monetary and to a lesser extent fiscal (hence the decision to stay out of the latest treaty, or at least not to be governed by it while outside the Eurozone), but either way they retain all the advantages of EU membership.
John Swinney’s preferred short- and medium-term option, retention of the pound, has no direct current parallels in Europe, but the closest comparison is with Montenegro, with the Bank of England playing the part of the European Central Bank. We’d have no control at all over monetary policy, without even MPs at Westminster to lobby the Chancellor or any reason why Scottish interests should be considered by the Monetary Policy Committee. We’d have no true central bank, no ability to consider policies like quantitative easing.
it’s all the currency downsides of the Union with none of the input. It sounds reassuring, though: “we’ll retain the pound”. Not scary. No change. Like “we’ll retain the Saxe-Coburg Gothas“. But no amount of flannel from Mr Swinney about hopes for “lengthy and solid agreement with the Bank of England” alters the fact that any such agreement would have to be entirely on the Bank’s terms. It’s not even clear why that’d be better than adopting the strict Montenegin approach and just circulating the Euro.
The Irish example is perhaps even more unappealing, for reasons that have become obvious to to the SNP as well. For me, this leaves only our two Scandinavian neighbours as possible role models. Personally I’m still on balance in favour of EU membership, although the way the Eurozone crisis has exacerbated the Union’s centralising tendencies is gradually putting me off. For now, it looks like those in the EU but not in the Eurozone have the best of both worlds, but there may come a time when true independence outside the EU was clearly in Scotland’s best interests. Sweden for now, in other words, but with an eye on Norway.
Don’t make the discussion about Scotland, and leave aside the economics for now. Just ask Family Fortunes contestants what the characteristics of an independent country are. It seems likely that having your own currency and your own head of state would be pretty high up their list, whatever the experience of living next to the Eurozone and in the Commonwealth may tell us. It’s not a bizarre and outlandish thought.
And that’s the kind of independence I want. One where Scotland genuinely runs her own affairs. Plenty of other small countries have their own currencies – in fact, apart from Montenegro and Eurozone members, that’s the norm. Let’s do the same (and let’s have no Queen on it either: the idea that a new and notionally progressive state should choose the hereditary principle is surely absurd).
The Nats have a decent starting point. Yes: London’s control over our economy doesn’t benefit us. Yes: it’s remote and undemocratic. Yet Swinney’s plan would leave future Chancellors at Westminster and the Bank of England in charge of Scotland’s economy, while actually reducing the influence we have over them. And he’s still retaining the option of handing those policy levers over to the even more remote and undemocratic European Central Bank.
This economically incompetent position feels like it’s driven by focus group, like so much of the SNP’s trimming and tacking, motivated by a desire not to alarm the public who the SNP presumably believe care more about what the money in their pocket looks like than they do about the actual economic merits of a particular position. It’s a soft spot for the Unionist campaign to attack, though, and surely won’t hold up to intense scrutiny during a referendum campaign. Time to reconsider.
Note: this is my position, not Scottish Green Party policy, which remains to oppose membership of the single currency and to support independence. Technically that could mean support for either an independent Scottish currency or, ironically, John Swinney’s approach. I have no doubt that this will be discussed at Conference prior to any referendum.
#1 by BM on February 2, 2012 - 1:16 pm
I think you may be making the “No True Scotsman” fallacy.
#2 by Jon B on February 2, 2012 - 1:23 pm
Not sure the parallels with Montenegro hold really. The Montenegrins use the currency without permission from the EU, who occasionally bump their gums with disatisfaction, but of course can’t really do anything about it. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro) Now, it’s a candidate country and I’m sure it will all be sorted out, but still. It will be interesting to see how the Montenegrins react when the convergence criteria for Euro use are ruthlessly enforced by Brussels, in the years ahead.
Kosovo uses the euro also, as a stabler currency than the Serb / Yugoslav dinar, again without permission, although the EU / EULEX has much bigger fish to fry there than the Kosovars using the Euro without permission. Bosnia’s ironically named “Convertible Mark” (reality: it isn’t convertible anywhere outside of BiH) is tied to the euro, having been set up tied to the Deutschmark, and is a very stable currency thanks to its non-portability (and EU support).
Another point raised- that Scotland would have to re-apply to the EU- is a myth that has evaporated many times in the past. EU officials have repeatedly made it clear that an independent Scotland’s membership would continue uninterrupted, initially in response to some scaremongering / whataboutery from the late Robin Cook, in the run up to the 1999 SP elections (if memory serves). We would have to hold another referendum to leave the EU if that’s what the people of Scotland want- and no one has actually left the EU yet, once a member. Nor is it credible that we would be obliged to “immediately” adopt the Euro. There will be a transition period, I am sure, where a negotiation with the BoE to continue using sterling will have to be put in place.
The SNP’s “Independence in Europe” policy was dreamt up in the early 1990s, when no one other than the most chunky of anoraks cared a hoot about their opinions on Europe. A position dreamt up by a small minority party in response to what was then a radically different EU without a single currency is not a credible position in 2012 and the SNP may have missed the boat to re-think their position carefully before launching this referendum. Or, they may have calculated, rather cynically, that so few people care about European politics in the wider UK, that they thought it not worth the bother of opening up potential splits in the party.
In the longer term, I think it would be a masterstroke from the SNP if they moved as close as they possibly could to the Norwegian option listed above. It recognises our status as a country friendly and orientated towards Europe, a key trading partner, without having to swallow wholesale the unpalatable and economically undemocratic direction it is currently being bounced into. An independent Scotland- like Norway, responsible for its own economy, foreign affairs and defence matters without having to sign away the economic levers we will newly have won to unelected central bankers in Frankfurt. Winning independence from a smaller, historical union and rushing headlong into a much bigger union where we will relinquish the small economic levers currently at our disposal makes no sense whatever- but that is the “logic” of the SNP’s current Euro policy.
As to the currency an independent Scotland will use in the future? Actually, I couldn’t care less. Currency is the vehicle used to travel in a specific economic direction, and the direction of travel taken will be the deciding factor for many of the “undecideds”. The SNP have to convince the undecideds that they and their family will be better off in an independent Scotland than they are at present and only hard numbers and watertight arguments will work. The wooliness over what will happen- not only in terms of currency but also of future economic planning- will be a major doubt for many. No amount of running rings round the clumsy and clueless unionist clots at Westminster- after successive ham-fisted interventions in recent weeks- will win a vote for Salmond outright.
If he offers a referendum on future Euro membership, and comes up with a clear and unambiguous set of plans for the future of the economy (with the currency part of that) then many will be persuaded to vote yes. The Euro issue is one he has to tread very carefully and sure-footedly around though, and he’s not going to be able to do that with an outdated 20+ year old policy on the matter.
#3 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:37 pm
Interesting, but are you implying the rUK would give an independent Scotland permission to continue to use sterling? If not, what would the differences be with Montenegro, aside from the direction of travel?
#4 by Thomas Widmann on February 2, 2012 - 1:47 pm
I think you should differentiate between using a foreign currency directly (think Montenegro) and storing the foreign currency in the vaults of the central bank while issuing local currency at par (think Bulgaria).
I think doing a Montenegro would be much less desirable than doing a Bulgaria.
There’s also the fact to consider than three banks (HBOS, RBS and Clydesdale) have the right to issue bank notes at the moment, but that right would probably be removed after independence.
#5 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:48 pm
That’s a good point: I kick myself for the absence of Bulgaria in here. But the latter right would disappear as sure as eggs is eggs.
#6 by Thomas Widmann on February 2, 2012 - 1:59 pm
Indeed, but that implies that using the pound sterling after independence wouldn’t be the status quo, because it would entail replacing the HBOS/RBS/Clydesdale bank notes with BoE notes.
I think Scots would find it much less disruptive to have the HBOS/RBS/Clydesdale bank notes replaced with bank notes issued by the Central Bank of Scotland, in a currency board arrangement that guaranteed it would be at par with the pound sterling for the first five or ten years.
#7 by Richard on February 2, 2012 - 2:09 pm
I know it’s called the Bank of England, but it’s actually the central bank of the whole of the UK, i.e. Scotland is a stakeholder in it, albeit a minor one. The idea that rUK would have to give their permission for us to continue using Sterling does not hold water.
#8 by Scotsfox on February 3, 2012 - 10:39 pm
Sterling is the currency of Scotland too, it does not belong to the rUK alone. We have a share in the BoE so should have representation on it’s board – something we don’t have meantime.
#9 by Ken on February 2, 2012 - 2:15 pm
“Another point raised- that Scotland would have to re-apply to the EU- is a myth that has evaporated many times in the past. EU officials have repeatedly made it clear that an independent Scotland’s membership would continue uninterrupted, ”
*sigh* EU officials in this case are European Commission officials. Who are simply civil servants. If you’ve ever asked a civil servant (or a Commission official) an on the record question about political policy, they’ll simply regurgitate a non-committal, and non-political answer. And some Commission officials have said, Scotland will not have to re-apply; while other have said yes they would.
So no, the issue hasn’t evaporated, and it isn’t a myth, but rather one that is lacking a definite answer one way or the other. It is an unknown at this point in time.
#10 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 1:33 pm
Fine, nothing to stop you making that case but the SNP isn’t going to. It would be too disruptive and too much of a risk in the immediate post-independence period. Five, ten years down the line maybe – once things have settled down and we are through the transition period. Then everything will be open for discussion but you’ll have to excuse the SNP if we focus on actually winning the independence referendum first! Ditto for the monarchy and EU. There is absolutely no point in debating whether we should have a momarchy or be in or out of the EU or eurozone until we have the power to take those decisions.
#11 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:36 pm
I think John’s policy will unravel during the referendum campaign. I’m sure you’ll disagree. And also if this were to become a less top-down, SNP-right-on-everything campaign it’d be more likely to inspire the public. Or at least me.
#12 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 1:43 pm
Lordy – you have no right to expect the SNP to make your arguments for you. If you want to argue for a separate currency then go ahead, if the Green party wants to do that then that is grand – the more the merrier.
But please stop expecting the SNP to make your arguments for you or accusing us of being top-down cos we have our own policies and want to stick with them.
You have a voice of your own. Use it.
#13 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:45 pm
That’s not what I suggested, not the concern I raised, and reads like a defensive answer to some completely different conversation.
#14 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 2:20 pm
I think it is. If you are making a case for an independent currency that’s fine – I am sure there will be plenty of people who would agree with you. Equally you are totally entitled to write about what you want to see in an independent Scotland.
But why even mention the SNP if you are not trying to influence us? And if you are trying to influence us, why? Why don’t you focus on telling your own story instead of trying to change ours?
You may not agree with the SNP’s position on the currency or the monarchy or the EU or whatever else – but this referendum is not about the currency or the monarchy or the EU.
It’s about whether or not Scotland should have the power to decide those things. Presumably you think it should. Presumably you also realise that, wIthout that power – which will only come with independence – you may as well be whistling Dixie as telling us what we ought to do about the Queen etc.
So is it not rather obvious what the priority is?
#15 by James on February 2, 2012 - 2:26 pm
I don’t give two hoots about the SNP. But I do want a Yes vote to a sensible question and a broad democratic process. If I think the SNP’s own policies make that Yes less likely, I’m going to point it out. It’s also up to the SNP whether they listen or not, not you. On one notable occasion after you’d spent most of a day berating me for a blogpost here where I challenged their policy I was told in private by an SNP Minister I’d not gone far enough.
#16 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 3:07 pm
If you don’t give two hoots about the SNP why are you so obsesssed with what OUR position is on the monarchy, EU, currency etc?
Why don’t you simply promote your own in the context of supporting a yes vote? It’s a pretty straightforward argument to make. You could say I think the SNP is wrong on X,Y and Z but the most important thing is that the Scottish Parliament ought to be able to take these decisions through the democratic process.
It’s really quite arrogant to say that you want a yes vote so we ought to listen to your opinions on the monarchy and so on. What makes you such an expert on what the SNP ought to do? It’s quite bizarre. You should be promoting your own party’s position on these matters in the wider context of promoting a yes vote. There will be plenty of voters out there who might be more easily brought over to supporting a yes vote by arguments made by the Greens so really why don’t you spend a bit more time making that case to your actual voters? This is not a debating society after all, it’s about persuading the public. Maybe you could do a blog post about what your intentions are in that respect?
#17 by GMcM on February 2, 2012 - 3:58 pm
Hold on a second Indy.
All any Labour-minded person has seen on fora such as this since last May (and before that) are ‘arrogant’ nats telling US how we should position ourselves on any given topic.
The difference here is that James wants independence, like the SNP are supposed to like independence, and he is trying to put forward options that would actually make the SNP position slightly more credible. In some ways (well on independence) James is on the same side, so why don’t you welcome his views in a less top-down way?
When nats tell Labour how to do things it is ever so slightly more absurd as we believe in different things, yet you want to tell us how we should put forward our policies (devo-max etc).
James is perfectly entitled to ask the party who are really driving the referendum to take a more considered approach to what independence means.
#18 by Daniel J on February 2, 2012 - 1:55 pm
I agree there, the more details the SNP ‘reveal’ the less enthusiastic I get about the whole thing.
#19 by Thomas Widmann on February 2, 2012 - 1:43 pm
Good article. However, I think you left out a couple of models, let’s call them Bulgaria, Gibraltar and Denmark:
Bulgaria has a currency board, locked to the euro: “Since 1997, Bulgaria has been in a system of currency board and all Bulgarian currency in circulation has been backed 100% by the foreign exchange reserves of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB).”
Gibraltar has the same currency-board arrangement, just locked to the pound: “The Currency Notes Act of 1934[2] confers on the Government of Gibraltar the right to print its own notes, and the obligation to back and exchange each printed note with sterling reserves at a rate of one pound to one pound sterling.”
Denmark is in the ERM-II: “In the case of the krone, Danmarks Nationalbank keeps the exchange rate within the narrower range of ± 2.25% against the central rate of EUR 1 = DKK 7.460 38.”
I would suggest the best solution for Scotland would be to go for Gibraltar first, then Bulgaria, and finally possibly Ireland.
#20 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 1:45 pm
Being perfectly honest, this is the one issue I’m not 100% satisfied with. For me, the best solution is a Scottish pound (or “merk” as my dad keeps saying) and just peg it to Sterling at first, and then see how that goes. It’s what Ireland did with the punt, and what the former Yugoslav countries did with the dinar, so the precedent is there in abundance for newly independent countries starting a currency based on the old one.
I know why the SNP are taking this line though, and I’m sympathetic to it. We all know that the unionist’s main line of attack is going to be “independence will cause too much disruption to your lives”, and will just paint a picture of “everyone having to queue up at the bank to change pounds into groats”. So the name of the game is trying to show that the world isn’t going to turn to chaos the day after a yes vote. I think this is worth taking a gamble on though, because it’s so easy to talk up the benefits of having our own currency, and will become even easier when the UK likely loses its AAA credit rating later this year.
So out of the options you suggest, I agree that Sweden is the way to go. I’m intrigued that you mention Ireland as even being a possibility though, because I’m not sure we could even if we wanted to. Those who say Scotland would have to join the Euro instantly seem to be under the impression that you can just join the Euro without having met the entry criteria. We would need to be in ERM II for two years beforehand, and I’m guessing (and I do mean guessing) that this can only be done if we have our own currency – could that be a reason for keeping Sterling?
Still think the monarchy is a completely separate issue, though. Monarchy is defined by 1603 union, whereas parliament is defined by 1707 union. This is about dismantling the 1707 Acts of Union, and as has been mentioned before, Canada and Australia etc are no less independent than they would be under a president. I would rather we sorted one thing out first, then moved onto the monarchy issue. Deal with the head of government, then deal with the head of state.
It would be far easier to debate these issues if the wider debate was a bit more grown-up though. The current situation of unionists throwing as much mud as possible to see what sticks does a total disservice to the public. Let’s see what the real issues we care about are, and compare and contrast the ways the union and independence would deal with them. I think I can guess why they are scared of doing this, though, and would rather pretend that it’s still 1948 and that the past 30 years of neo-liberal dismantling of British society hadn’t happened.
#21 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:49 pm
I agree about the need to go through our own currency to get to the Irish situation – I’ve blogged about it before.
#22 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 3:34 pm
There is the slight matter of winning the referendum first.
We all know where we are with that. There’s about a third of people who will definitely vote yes, a third who will definitely vote no and a third who have yet to make up their minds.
All these debates about the monarchy, the currency, the Queen etc are really only talking points among people who have already decided they agree with independence and are thinking in terms of what kind of country they want an independent Scotland to be.
But you know we have to persuade the third who have not yet decided. They really won’t decide to vote against independence because they would rather stick with the current set-up – with nuclear bombs on the Clyde, unelected peers in the House of Lords, Cameron and Osborne deciding our economic policy, welfare provision etc and very probably getting ready to send our boys into Iran to boot – because they disapprove of an independent Scotland retaining the pound initially or keeping the monarchy. If the choice is between something you really really don’t like and something that seems better but is perhaps not your perfect set-up there’s not much of a choice is there?
And the undecided will be much more interested in being provided with reassurance that their pension will continue to be paid, their jobs will be secure, their mortgages won’t suddenly go up etc. Bread and butter issues. That’s what most people vote on. Most people aren’t political obsessives. They will vote on the basis of what they think will be best for themselves, their families and their communities. And we know that most people do not like big, radical change. We political types might like the idea of revolutions but Mr & Mrs Average voter do not.
What this thread reads like is a kind of fantasy football – if you had your perfect independent Scotland what would it look like. The real game is being played elsewhere.
#23 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 12:44 am
True. The more I think about it, the more potential problems I see. Granted, saying we’ll have our own currency will neutralise the “ooh you’ll be run by the Bank of England!” line of attack, but of course, if we say we’re starting a new currency straight away, the lines of attack will just change to “OMG people will have to queue at the border to get their currency exchanged!” and multiple comparisons made to the currencies of teensy-weensy countries, not to mention the inevitable stories about everyone having to get their notes changed in the first place,scare stories about your pension losing its value or whatever…
Nah, you’re quite right Indy. Sticking with sterling is the least worst option (the worst option being staying with Sterling because we decide to stay in the UK…)
#24 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 8:30 am
That’s not the main issue that I see. People could adapt to changing money etc in future if, in future, we decide on an independent currency. But my concern – admittedly without knowing very much about international finance – is that currency is a tradeable commodity isn’t it? So people are going to start trading Scottish currency before they really know what kind of country an independent Scotland is going to be? That seems a crazy risk to me and I am a nationalist! That’swhy I think we need a number of years to allow independence to bed down, to demonstrate that Scotland is a secure and stable environment with a strong economy. Once the rest of the world – and the all-powerful goddamn markets – have got used to that then we can re-evaluate whether continuing to use sterling is the right thing. We also have no idea at this point how things are going to work out with the euro. It surely makes sense to wait until we have a bit more clarity about the options.
#25 by Gaz on February 4, 2012 - 9:54 pm
At present, Scotland has no influence over BoE monetary policy. Not even at the time when a Scot was Chancellor and a Scot (when it suited him) was Prime Minister did we have any influence.
However, post-independence the game changes and I’m astonished at the way folk have been hoodwinked by the Unionist claptrap about currency. It is a classic diversionary tactic.
The simple fact is that rUK would have much more reason to want an Independent Scotland to continue to use Sterling than Scotland would itself.
For Scotland it is simply about trade continuity – ie what causes least disruption in the short term for the economy – but for rUK it is about ensuring Sterling continues to be anchored as an oil currency.
Without that, Sterling just becomes a currency with all its eggs in the financial services basket – it is a recipe for total meltdown and Whitehall Treasury officials know it even if their political masters haven’t woken up to it. How long would a AAA credit rating last for an economy so beholden to the financial services sector? (that was a rhetorical question)
In that context it is quite feasible – likely even – that Scotland would negotiate an extremely strong say in how monetary policy for the Sterling area is managed. It would certainly be in a far stronger position than it is today. I can imagine a joint MPC with 50% representation from both the Scottish and rUK Governments being a fairly straightforward and sensible proposal and being accepted without any real debate – the MPC is, after all, meant to be independent of government anyway.
If and when the time is right for Scotland to join the Euro (and I am far from convinced it ever will be), rUK will be begging us not to leave Sterling. And, if they were honest about things, that is really what they should be saying to us today in the context of Independence (but that would require admitting to itself that it is no longer the great power it continues to believe itself to be).
Think about it, what big cards will rUK have to play in post-independence negotiations? Virtually none. Whereas Scotland will be sitting at the table with oil, renewables, water and the Trident base – all things that rUK desperately needs for various reasons and which it has none or little of itself. It is inconceivable that even an incompetent Scottish government could come away from these negotiations with anything other than a great deal. With Salmond and Swinney in charge, we’d probably get a fantastic deal.
And one thing is for sure, the fiscal policy of an Independent Scotland will not be allowed to be constrained by a committee which we have no influence over.
People continue to think about the post-independence situation with a dependency mindset. I suppose that is understandable after being told what to do for 300 years.
But after independence, NOBODY will tell us what we can or can’t do. We will do what is best for ourselves which, in some cases, will mean pooling sovereignty to secure some trade/economic advantage and accepting that we must live and let live with our friends and neighbours. But in all cases, negotiations will be conducted on our terms.
#26 by Doug Daniel on February 5, 2012 - 1:39 pm
Spot on. Absolutely spot on.
#27 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 3:48 pm
Im sorry but you cant just say that the monarchy is a separate issue.
IF you want to maintain the line that this is about the Act of Union and not the Union of the Crowns, then you have to, to maintain any sense of internal logic to your argument, be advocating the status quo circa 1700.
The referendum is being presented as being about independence, which is not the same thing as the 1707 act.
#28 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 4:16 pm
Do you advocate removing the monarchy?
#29 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 6:07 pm
i cant imagine why i would.
#30 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 7:00 pm
Right, so we already know you don’t advocate independence, and you’re now confirming you don’t advocate the removal of the monarchy either.
So why do you advocate Scotland becoming an independent republic? Or are you (and I’m sure this isn’t the reason) simply trying to pick holes for the sake of it, rather than trying to argue for what you actually believe in?
#31 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 7:15 pm
I aint advocating Scotland becoming an independent republic. Im advocating the SNP (or any other party) not talking mince.
#32 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 12:18 am
Mince? Why is it mince? Independent countries can be republics or kingdoms. SNP is merely saying “let’s remain a kingdom at the moment”.
#33 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 1:10 am
*sighs*
well the central mince in the snp position is the refusal to acknowledge that anything bad might happen after independence.
i wasn’t restricting myself to the head of state, you did that.
infact your question about my support for the monarchy was irrelevant to the comment that you asked it in response to.
the SNP position on the monarchy tho is mince.
if an independent scotland is to remain a monarchy, then either us, or rUK will have to go down the canadian model and have a governor general.
#34 by Craig Gallagher on February 2, 2012 - 10:40 pm
This is historical hogwash. Scotland was sovereign “circa 1700”, even if we did share a monarch with England. But as the anti-English riots of 1701 and 1702 and the Act Anent Peace and War of 1703 show, there was considerable capacity for independent thinking. The Scottish Estates effectively checkmated the English Parliament into entering negotiations on Scottish access to the Empire by refusing the ratify the Hanoverian Succession. That the negotiations went largely against Scotland after that misses the point that the issue was effectively forced by the Scots, not the English.
#35 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 1:13 am
having spent half of the final year of my history degree studying the history of the Parliament of Scotland in far too much detail i am aware of scotland’s independence prior to the union.
it is however irrelevant,
if independence is simply about revoking the act of union, and from dougs comments above going to the union of crowns, then your taking 90% of what we currently understand as democracy and chucking it out.
history has happened between then and now, so the constitutional settlement in 1700 or 1710 matters hardly a jot.
#36 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 11:39 am
You make it sound like I’m saying we should be turning the clock back to be how things were before 1707! My point was merely that the union of the crowns and the union of the parliaments were two separate things, and the independence referendum is solely focussed on the parliamentary issue.
Independence is about controlling taxation, public spending, welfare, defence, EU relations, etc. Having the Queen remain as Queen of Scots until we decide otherwise does not affect any of those things – hence why it is silly to include it in the deal.
I want Scotland to be an independent secular republic, but what right do I have to demand that everyone who wants independence also has to want a republic and to have the church completely separated from the state?
James’ position (and yours, despite being a monarchist and not actually wanting independence) is that either we have an independent republic, or we stick with the status quo. Why alienate people who want independence but also rather like the Queen?
#37 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 4:33 pm
Actually my position is that if we have independence, we should retain the monarchy, but that has to mean the appointment of a governor general.
the snp position on the monarchy is about nothing more than trying not to scare the horses, the union of the crowns, in its pre 1707 state isnt a sensible option as far as i am concerned. not least because i dont think she would be queen of scots (or scotland if we wanted to go that way) but because she is queen of the united kingdom.
#38 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 7:44 pm
But why is it not a sensible option? What bad things will happen?
And I disagree that it means we have to appoint a governor general. Countries like Australia had Governor Generals/Lieutenant Generals/whatever before they were even independent, purely because they were too numerous and far away for the King or Queen to be expected to perform royal duties at all of them.
But even if we did, other countries manage with that set up, so why would it matter?
#39 by Jon B on February 2, 2012 - 1:49 pm
@James- yes. How will rUK stop us using Sterling? Send bobbies over the border to collect all the notes they find?
They can’t- and Osbourne knows it. In all likelihood, I think, we will continue to use sterling for an agreed period- the negotiations with the BoE would be a (tough and gruelling) part of the settlement with rUK in the event of a yes vote.
@Indy- you appear to be confirming that the up and coming referendum will be whether we continue to manage part of our economy (and maybe all of it if devo max comes into play), or whether Frankfurt manages it all for us?
If that’s the actual substance of the referendum then count me down as very underwhelmed. The future relationship with the EU and its economic trajectory is absolutely key to Scotland’s future constitutional and economic success, and at best it is naive to claim that somehow it’s all a disruptive separate issue that we’ll worry about later.
Still, your comments seem to confirm that the SNP are now stuck with a largely irrelevant 20+ year old policy wit no credibility in 2012 – simply because to actually have a debate and amend it accordingly would be “too disruptive”.
#40 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:53 pm
I doubt there’d be any difference between the tolerance of usage that the Eurozone offers Montenegro and the tolerance of usage that the rUK would laughingly offer Scotland. Stopping us using sterling is quite different..
#41 by Thomas Widmann on February 2, 2012 - 2:02 pm
I think everybody agree that you cannot prevent an independent Scotland from using the pound sterling, either directly or through a currency board.
However, I find it very unlikely the Bank of England could be persuaded to take the needs of an independent Scotland into consideration when deciding on the interest rate — it’s already the case that interest rates are to a large extent decided by what’s best for the City of London.
#42 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 3:51 pm
And thats what matters, the basis on which the MPC set policy.
#43 by Andrew on February 2, 2012 - 1:51 pm
Interesting article. Raises an important point.
Just as it was important that devolution wasn’t simply a Labour project, independence shouldn’t just be an SNP project.
I don’t believe the Queen should be the UK’s head of state – let alone the head of state in an independent Scotland.
The SNP are setting out a vision which is essentially conservative. It’s safe to vote ‘yes’ because nothing will change. If that’s true then why bother?
How we are governed is more important than where from. Alex Salmond may be a Parnell, but he’s no James Connolly.
#44 by James on February 2, 2012 - 1:55 pm
Agreed. I’d rather a radically democratic and massively devolved (down to levels beyond Holyrood) UK republic, elected by PR with parties funded only by individual capped donations, much greater FOI access and all the rest.. than an independent Scotland that just reproduces Westminster. It’s just a pragmatic position on my part that the former is as likely as moving to wherever the My Little Ponies live, and that we can improve on the latter despite SNP conservatism.
#45 by Craig Gallagher on February 2, 2012 - 10:43 pm
All revolutions start out conservative, righting particular wrongs rather than implementing wholesale change. The radicals usually take charge later, once the ball has started rolling. Salmond is a keen student of history, and I’m sure he knows that playing it safe is really the only way to move that ball at all. We can’t get ahead of ourself or we risk burstin’ it a’thegither.
#46 by James on February 2, 2012 - 11:12 pm
I seem to remember the French version going the other way.
#47 by Craig Gallagher on February 3, 2012 - 4:38 am
No, definitely not. The Jacobins hijacked the Revolution from moderate reformers who sought only to reform various illiberal and unfair land and trade taxes insisted upon by the Bourbon monarchy, while at the same time restoring the importance of the Parlements to French government.
That Napoleon took over is considered by historians to be part of the counter-Revolution, although it’s worth remembering that he may be atypical because he could never have ascended to such heights without the truly radical policies of Robespierre’s Committee for Public Safety nor those of the Directory. Nonetheless, in the initial stages the moderates were overwhelmed by the dogma of the radicals, but only after the fact of a constitutional change had been achieved. The relevance to Scotland is that it’s the attainment of genuine powers as a concession that leads to reform. Therefore, republicanism (which I support) and a Scottish currency (which I do not) should expect to be successor ideologies to the idea of independence, being made possible by the fact of its happening.
#48 by James on February 3, 2012 - 9:19 am
I realised as I hit post that which transition you regard post-revolutionary France as having made depends on the specific period you consider: up to Robespierre’s peak, as you’ve suggested, or from there through to 1799 and the end of the Directory.
#49 by Ewan Dow on February 2, 2012 - 2:00 pm
Oh dear, this article is so utterly wrong.
Economic and monetary policy are not one and the same thing and you appear to not know that difference.
(If they were they were the same we wouldn’t have the situation in the Eurozone that some economies (well Germany anyway) are doing very well whilst others struggle due to their adoption of different economic systems and policies.)
Currently UK monetary policy is set by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England. The Chancellor’s sole input into that is to appoint 4 of the 9 members (ie a minority). Nothing else.
There’s no opportunity for MPs to lobby the Chancellor or for the Chancellor to lobby the MPC. The Chancellor’s sole input is sending a representative of the Treasurery along to express their opinions but they have no vote.
Details here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/overview.htm
Last week on BBC GMS an economist from, I think, the LSE was asked what difference it would make to Scotland’s input into Sterling monetary policy for Scotland to be independent and he said little if any as the current arrangement doesn’t give Scotland much input via Parliament due to the independent arrangement of the MPC. (I’ll try and find more details about this.)
Economic powers however WILL be held by the Finance Secretary of an independent Scotland and these, as has been seen across Europe, can be used even without having monetary policy, to improve or damage your country.
In short the whole article is based on a false premise and your third last paragraph is frankly utter factually incorrect mince.
#50 by Thomas Widmann on February 2, 2012 - 2:13 pm
The big difference after independence will be probably be that when the “MPC sets an interest rate it judges will enable the inflation target to be met” (your link), the inflation figures will be those for the rUK, not for the rUK + Scotland.
#51 by Ewan Dow on February 2, 2012 - 2:41 pm
A good point Thomas but I’d put forward the view, whilst acknowledging this further makes the SNP’s position seem odd and strengthen’s James’ case for a new model, that the BofE MPC sets interest rates to suit the City of London and not the current UK as a whole.
Therefore in your scenario it’ll make no odds if Scotland is in or out of the UK as far as the MPC is concerned – however with independence we would gain other powers to offset the lack of monetary policy.
The argument is – are those enough to achieve a succesful independent Scotland? I believe yes, but open to hear arguments why not.
#52 by James on February 2, 2012 - 2:13 pm
Au contraire. I carefully distinguish between monetary and fiscal policy throughout. Both have clear and unambiguous meanings, unlike “economic policy”, which would cover a whole lot more besides. Fiscal policy is also being constrained across the Eurozone, as I discuss. And are you arguing about the par starting “The Nats have a decent starting point..”?
Also, this is our blog. I’ve let this through despite it coming close to a breach of our comments policy. Feel free to tell me I’m wrong, but “frankly utter factually incorrect mince” is playground namecalling without some kind of proper substantiation.
#53 by Ewan Dow on February 2, 2012 - 2:36 pm
An odd approach as I clearly said your argument in the third last paragraph was mince and nothing about you personally.
James, in that paragraph you state: “Yet Swinney’s plan would leave future Chancellors at Westminster and the Bank of England in charge of Scotland’s economy, while actually reducing the influence we have over them”
Clearly this is factually incorrect and to a Fifer “mince”! Let me explain:
Firstly as I stated above, and you don’t appear to contradict me, the chancellor is not in charge of UK monetary policy at the moment and is not likely to be post independence. So your first point is wrong.
Secondly after independence fiscal policy will be the decision of the Scots Parliament and the Scots finance secretary so with these key economic levers in Scottish hands its wrong to say that the Bank of England will be in charge of Scotland’s economy.
Thirdly as I stated an economist (which I don’t profess to be) from the LSE has stated that there is little or no influence over the MPC from Scotland at the moment and is unlikely to change after independence so you’re also wrong to say “reducing the influence we have over them”
This key part of the end of your post is in my mind inaccurate and undermines the rest of your argument, so I believe that the article’s conclusions are based on a false premise – that being that monetary policy equals economic policy when its but a strand of it.
Can I make one point thought. John Swinney’s vision is but one of those that I suspect will be on offer to the Scottish people in the first post-independence general election and it would be good to hear others making cases so I do welcome the blog post even if it does err factually at times!
#54 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 4:00 pm
Quite. The assumption that the SNP will simply stroll into government after independence with a remit to do whatever we want is flattering – but it ain’t necessarily going to happen!
I am sure that you like me have sometimes thought of how ironic it would be if we win independence only to see Labour, perhaps along with the Greens, who knows, becoming the first government of an independent Scotland.
Funny thing is that they never seem to think of that!
#55 by Dan on February 2, 2012 - 2:41 pm
John Swinney does seem to think that an independent Scotland with sterling will either have an influence on the Bank of England or the BoE will factor it in to any decisions it will make in a way similar to how it relates to the UK govt.
#56 by Jeff on February 2, 2012 - 3:10 pm
Good one James. While my preference is for Norway and Sweden models, to use your comparisons (and in that order), I still don’t see very much wrong with the Montenegro model one little bit. I don’t even see that much wrong with the Euro/Ireland model, but I get that I’m in the minority there.
Anyway, you brush over it in your post, but what practically is wrong with monetary policy being controlled by the Bank of England in the short/medium term after independence? Worst case scenario – if it isn’t working, and if it’s clear Scotland would benefit from the Euro or its own currency, then we can have a vote on that at a later date. I just don’t see what cataclysmic event will take place if the Bank of England sets Scotland’s monetary policy, it’s worked well enough for decades up to now and is not, as far as I can tell, anywhere close to approach the main priorities for why Scotland SHOULD be independent so it’s all a bit of a distraction really.
As for Mr Dow, it seems to be the done thing these days to deride someone for not knowing the difference between fiscal and monetary policy, irrespective of the context or the accuracy of the charge. It makes me wonder if some people have been on an Economics for Beginners course and are bursting at the seams to show off their new found knowledge.
#57 by Ewan Dow on February 2, 2012 - 3:36 pm
No I haven’t been on either and my knowlege of economics is scant however I do know enough to realise that making an argument that economic policy will remain with a foreign politician when that clearly is factually inaccurate is something I do have enough common sense to realise and can’t see why to point this out has ruffled so many feathers.
I’d stopped reading Better Nation as to be frank it had got a tad cliquey and navel-gazing and going by the fact that my arguing an argument is mince without commenting on the person making the argument is seen as breaching comment policy but your name checking and sarky comments are fair game Jeff, I’ll leave you guys to it.
#58 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 4:07 pm
Let me say this as a Unionist that is not all that happy with the Union.
I have a major problem with the lets do this just now and if it doesnt work we will sort it out in ten years argument, which is essentially what you, and a number of others seem to be saying.
Independence will, i believe, have serious economic consequences in the (possibly very) short term. I dont think that ten years is anywhere near enough to establish if an economic construct is working or not. You only have to look at the length of the period of growth in the UK post ERM, or the decades over which the post war consensus endured before its weaknesses were utterly apparent (granted this is a view that is somewhat partisan but there you go if you disagree substitute thaterism).
on the post war consensus you can make an argument that it was extenal factors rather than internal ones that undermined that set up.
On a personal level, i get the feeling more and more that my future wont be in scotland, or the UK, oddly enough this is a view that i know i share with a number of nationalist friends, and that is irrespective of the out come of the referendum.
One thing that is certain to make it more likely that i would look to jump ship, and i suspect many others, is an independence settlement that offers no , or little, permanence.
#59 by BaffieBox on February 3, 2012 - 7:28 am
I guess it depends on your point of view. Im at the stage where Im seriously considering leaving Scotland and the UK if we dont succeed in this referendum. I love this country dearly but I want something more for my young family and with friends/family enjoying success in far flung corners of the world, Im fed up trying to see Scotland free itself of the shackles of permanence and the status quo. Permanence is the problem IMO. I want Scotland to be dynamic; I want it to try new ideas; I want it to rewrite the constitution; I want it to stop conforming to UK tradition and politic. The thought of being here on referendum+1 and being stuck with the same old will be the final straw for me.
Im very much in favour of a Scottish currency pegged to Sterling in short term but I can understand all sides on this. It will always be a compromise, not just on monetary policy, but with public opinion. We are who we are, and no matter how much it annoys me, the Scottish public are risk-averse currently. The bigger the jump, the bigger and better the campaign needs to be, and the bigger the risk. No solution is perfect so expect the initial proposal to be somewhere in the middle.
#60 by GMcM on February 2, 2012 - 3:10 pm
James I think a very good article from a pro-independence perspective.
I believe we are better off part of the UK and in terms of currency I think our current arrangements are beneficial. However I can see from your article that you are advocating various currency positions for an independent Scotland based on what you believe to be the best case scenanrio in that event, rather than picking the currency proposal most likely to not-spook the voters.
Of course I don’t want to see the Yes vote win but if it does I would hope it is because of well reasoned, principled policy positions. Anything else just seems like independence for independence sake. If the SNP believe in independence they should be looking at the post-independence world and the policies that would be best for the country; to hold the views they hold right now is exactly as Andrew says above – pointless. Why should Scotland leave the UK to remain part of the UK, lose any sort of control over the BoE, keep a head of state etc?
I disagree with your position on independence but I respect the approach you are taking to this particular debate.
#61 by Craig on February 2, 2012 - 3:16 pm
James, have you considered the implications of a Scottish Pound or have you just fallen for the irrational “independence regardless of consequences” line?
With no track record, you would expect this new currency to immediately depreciate away from a 1:1 peg with the Pound Sterling. This is because you’re pitting a new currency from a new government of a small nation against one of the largest and strongest minor reserve currencies in the world. Any investor looking to hold Scottish Pounds over Pounds Sterling will demand higher interest rates.
So the first decision an independent Scottish government would have to make is whether to hike interest rates to retain parity with the Pound Sterling – thus strangling economic growth in Scotland – or allowing the Scottish Pound to depreciate, increasing the real value of debts denominated in Pound Sterling, increasing the cost of imports (especially from England) and thus the standard of living.
What makes us different from the examples cited in the blog post and comments is the debt situation. An independent Scotland will inherit its share of the UK National Debt – about 8% depending on whether we split by population or size of economy. Gilts will almost certainly remain denominated in Pound Sterling and under English contract law. There’s also the small problem of splitting the Gilt market in two: one part worth around 92% of par and the other part worth 8% of par. With the larger pool of investors, the former will be more liquid than the latter, which can become a vicious cycle sparked by flights to quality. But the really big issue is that the debt becomes a huge barrier to letting a Scottish Pound depreciate since unlike a debt denominated in Scots Pounds that will experience a fall in real value, Pound Sterling debts will see their real value rise.
Hence it’s little use saying Norway manage – because Norway is not a independent Scotland that just left the United Kingdom in 2015 or whenever. You have to play with the hand you’re dealt, not the one you’d like.
Lastly there is the small matter of the Scottish financial sector, which is very much built around being in a Pound Sterling zone (not least in competing to attract talent from London). Even the Euro wouldn’t be too bad for them. But a Scottish Pound on top of dealing with the Pound Sterling and the Euro?
Mind you that’s if the Euro is still around after March.
#62 by Angus McLellan on February 2, 2012 - 5:54 pm
If there’s anything we should have (re)learned from the last five years it is that predictions are not reliable.
If you know what an independent Scotland’s balance of payments would look like five years from now you’re wasted here. Or even if you only know what it is today. The same is true of the UK’s credit rating – currently only A+, same as Belgium and worse than Chile, according to Dagong – never mind that of an independent Scotland. And as for the Eurozone, the best(-paid anyway) financial experts are giving that their full attention and haven’t reached a conclusion about anyone other than Greece and Portugal yet.
There would be much more important things to be doing in a newly independent Scotland than standing up a currency or a central bank. What’s needed on day one are interim solutions, simple to implement and “good enough” to stand for a few years. Allowing sterling to circulate – which means doing nothing much – seems good enough to me. New debt can be denominated in sterling or US dollars or some mix of currencies. Once several years of national accounts and statistics are available then it will make sense to look at the options. It could be coincidence that Ireland’s progress towards issuing a currency followed this sort of timeline. Or maybe not.
#63 by commenter on February 2, 2012 - 3:37 pm
I am but a simple ignoramus who is in favour of independence, but is against a couple of things:
* A variable exchange rate between me and the head-office of the company that pays me.
* Having to get money changed in order to visit England/Wales.
Pretty mundane and prosaic concerns, but there you go.
#64 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 4:03 pm
Suh mundane and prosaic concerns could well add up to the difference between yes and no.
#65 by Angus McLellan on February 2, 2012 - 4:36 pm
The first point. If you are a member of the salariat your salary would paid be in local currency in nearly all cases. If your employer is doing business in two or more currencies then they will certainly be capable of paying staff in two or more currencies. Even relatively small companies cope with this problem on the island of Ireland today and medium and large companies nearly everywhere have to deal with it.
Second point. Cash machines in England would give out English money, just like cash machines in the US give out dollars and cash machines in Belgium give out Euro. No need to change money normally.
#66 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 4:54 pm
We ain’t on the same side G. That”s why I feel quite at liberty to say I think you are wrong to nail your colours so firmly to the Union mast. But I give credit to Labour for actually being quite good unionists – I haven’t seen any Labour peeps telling the Lib Dems or Tories what their arguments for the Union and on the referendum should be. Indeed, you are all singing from the same hymn sheet down to the exact phraseology e.g. you all want a referendum that is “fair decisive and legal”. Coincidentally of course. Doesn’t stop you knocking lumps out of each other on non-Union related issues but you have clearly decided that you are going to make a united case for the Union. Personally I think Labour are bonkers to do that that’s another argument. I don’t expect the Greens to sing from the same hymn sheet as the SNP but I do expect them to set out why they support independence rather than why they don’t support the SNP’s policies for independence. The equivalent of what James is doing would be if someone from Labour, the Lib Dems or Tories said we will support the Union – but only if we can have X, Y or Z after the referendum. Anyone who did that would, quite rightly, be told eh, that is actually up to the voters!
#67 by James on February 2, 2012 - 4:57 pm
You’re regularly and apparently deliberately misreading me. I think John’s policy here will get killed in the campaign: if I were Jim Murphy I’d be cackling into my latte right now. And my position is that a referendum which promises us the use of the pound for the medium term isn’t a vote winner. I’m also not setting out Green policy: I’m just a regular party member now.
#68 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 5:03 pm
Whereas you think people are more likely to vote for independence if we give the unionists the chance to say guess what the day after it happens the money in your pocket will be worthless? Because that is exactly what they would say.
#69 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 6:12 pm
Right now the unionist position is, i think rightly, that post independence the SNPs economic policy will collapse in a heap of unworkability.
What i think James is suggesting is that the SNP needs a policy that actually stands up to something resembling reality if they want to have a reasonable chance of being taken seriously.
As a Unionist i am perfectly happy with the SNP’s current position, and that in and of itself should give you reason to consider more seriously, and politely, what James is suggesting.
#70 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 7:46 pm
And you suggest that the transition from being part of the UK to being an independent country would be made easier by immediately launching an independent currency with all the potential problems ably set out by Craig?
And you think it would be sensible to make this commitment without being able to know or give any consideration to the economic and financial global circumstances that will prevail at the time of independence?
I can see why you, as a unionist, would like to see the SNP do that.
#71 by Iain Menzies on February 2, 2012 - 8:17 pm
I love how you use unionist as a term of abuse….
but before you hurl the rest of your toys out the pram….What the SNP could do is say, you know what the BEST thing for scotland is a Scottish currency. In my opinion, if scotland is to be independent, then thats what should happen.
Its not about saying on day one of independence, guess what guys were changing the currency, if you go into the referendum on that basis and its a yes, then you have a couple of years to set the machinery in place, and get the printers going, before scotland officially became independent.
Unless your suggesting that Scotland would be able to run everything BUT the establishment of a new currency, which you seem, to be, but im sure your not, after all that would be talking down scotland…..
#72 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 11:50 pm
I’m not using unionist as a term of abuse. You are a unionist. You don’t want to see an independent Scotland so that is pertinent, no?
The SNP approach to independence is a gradualist one. Step by step. First we get independence, then we let it bed down. We get used to being an independent country – there’s a whole generation of politicians who will actually have to get used to using the new powers they will have at their disposal. We also have to let the rest of Europe and the wider world get used to having us around. We have to establish ourselves.
That requires stability, people here have to know that the machinery of state will continue to function and people outside of Scotland have to know that we are not the mental, Braveheart obsessed nutjobs that we are sometimes painted as being – people outside Scotland read all that crap too and how are they to know if it is true or false? We need to show them that it is false.
People will need to know that with independence they will continue to get their pension and benefits, public sector employees will continue to get paid, local authorities and health boards will continue to get funded and it will be a seamless process. Unionists will tell them that all of that will be at risk. We need to show that it won’t be. Independence is not going to be like rubbing out everything that is on the blackboard and starting again with a blank space.
Then we can look at issues like the currency and if people are so set on it the monarchy. But we do it step by step. That is just common sense.
People who argue for a Big Bang type approach are not being realistic. It’s not simply that folk won’t vote for that, it is also just impractical.
There is also the fact that there will be a general election after independence and the SNP may not win, which would make us setting out a programme for government extremely presumptuous as well.
#73 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 1:17 am
two points, one, you are MASSIVELY overestimating how much the rest of the world will care.
and two, on the big bang front, it worked for a good chunk of eastern europe post USSR, the US much of south america, good chunk of africa.
why is it you think that Slovakia can go straight to full independence and that scotland cant?
i mean seriously would you stop talking down scotland 😉
#74 by Barbarian on February 2, 2012 - 8:23 pm
Economic policy was one are which I thought the SNP were on solid ground. Certainly within the current situation Swinney has done reasonably well. However, now that the options for independence are being more closely looked at, things are looking a little bit shaky.
You have to remember that the vast majority of voters are not that knowledgeable about economics. What we have at the moment is a slightly confusing situation: at the heart of Europe, but retaining Sterling which in a general sense is still part of the UK.
The SNP needs more definitive policy decisions here. “Wait and see” is not something to give the average voter confidence.
#75 by Angus McLellan on February 3, 2012 - 12:52 am
“Wait and see” is something we all have experience of.
If Scotland becomes independent there are going to be a lot of changes which need to happen as quickly as possible. Lots of laws will need introduced. New government departments will have to be created and civil servants moved around into new jobs. Ministers will be running round signing up to dull treaties like the WTO, the Berne Convention, and many more. Taxes will need to be collected. Pensions and benefits paid. That’s a lot off work, and while it is going on there will probably negotiations will be going on with Westminster over all sorts of issues in the background.
There’s only so many balls can be kept in the air at one time. The more things are rushed, the more mistakes are likely to be made. Decisions that don’t need to be made urgently can be left until the urgent business is out of the way. That should include things like a new currency – tied to sterling or not – where doing nothing is an option, at least for a while, or signing up to the EU.
The lesson of other countries like Ireland, Australia or Canada – is that independence has a definite beginning. But the process in Ireland lasted 25 years – until the establishment of the Republic – or perhaps longer. Canada and Australia were independent to some degree by around 1900, but they were more independent after 1935 and in Canada’s case the process didn’t end until 1982.
Michael Collins put it like this when recommending the Anglo-Irish Treaty to the Dail: “it gives us freedom, not the ultimate freedom that all nations desire and develop to, but the freedom to achieve it”. Or to steal from Ron Davies, “independence is a process, not an event”.
#76 by Colin Dunn on February 4, 2012 - 2:34 pm
“There’s only so many balls can be kept in the air at one time. The more things are rushed, the more mistakes are likely to be made. Decisions that don’t need to be made urgently can be left until the urgent business is out of the way. That should include things like a new currency – tied to sterling or not – where doing nothing is an option, at least for a while, or signing up to the EU.”
I tend to agree with this.
I’m no economist, and frankly a lot of the fine detail in the article and posts here makes my brain hurt. However, as a director of a small IT company some knd of continuity and a gradualist approach to such things as currency and monarchy is going to help many people feel more comfortable about voting for independence. Yes, we can go the whole hog, vote for a republic, and transform the country in one big bang, but I think that’s going to prove too much change for many people. I’m in the Yes camp, but my fellow-director is in the as-yet-mostly-undecided camp, and the changed currency issue is one that worries him.
Colin
#77 by Brian Nicholson on February 2, 2012 - 9:15 pm
First of all, let me state that this article and debate is one of the best seen here in long time. Even with the different views, it is intelligent and for the most part, absent of personal attack.
I would like to contribute one observation.
The dispute of which system Scotland chooses to advance pre-referendum seems to ignore the fact that Scotland would be free to amend or continue any system post-independence. If the choice is the retain Sterling and the B of E acts in a distinctly anti-Scots manner, nothing prevents the Scots government from removing itself from Sterling and using any of the other approaches. In my opinion, given the need for Sterling to include the resource revenues and future wealth of the same in its financial package, such an anti-Scots would be unlikely. Further, as Sterling would be judged by all its assets, what benefit would it be to the B of E to advance policies that would devalue its own asset base.
I think a good comparison to the relationship between an independent Scotland and the remnants of the UK would be the relationship between the Canadian and American economies. Canada and USA are in a Free Trade Agreement and are both each others largest trading partner. Canada is a resource based economy while the USA is a consumer driven economy. Both the Canadian dollar and the US dollar fluctuate greatly against each other. In times, like the present, where resource values are more important, the Canadian dollar is higher. Other other times, when consumerism is high, and resource value less important, the American dollar is higher. Fluctuations like this occur in most trading relationships.
Scotland’s resource base and the growing demand for those resources, not just in the remnants of the UK but across Europe and beyond would seem to indicate a continuing strength for an economy based on resources and any currency based on such ( whether Sterling or groat or merk) would remain strong and desirable.
Increasing Scotland’s resource wealth through expansion of oil resources, gas, renewable energy and probably most important in the long, clean renewable water supplies, will ensure Scotland’s strength in any currency situation, whether in tandem with others (Sterling, Euro) or independent ( like the Kroner).
If we let fear and pessimism colour this debate, we do a disservice to it.
#78 by Tormod on February 3, 2012 - 12:03 pm
My own preference is for a Scottish Dollar, we would use the £ for a period of 5-10 years after 2014 in order to begin the process of setting up a central bank.
The SNP leadership really just to keep it simple and explain that it cannot decide on what a currency an independent Scotland will use until a fully restored parliament in Edinburgh is elected and parties are elected with a specific mandate.
Keep it simple, explain it simply as enpowering the Scots with a choice for a new bonnie nation state called Scotland, this choice is not for the SNP to make without a specific mandate.
#79 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 1:04 pm
I don’t think the world will be massively interested but I think there will be interest. And we need to be aware of that and address any concerns that are there as a consequence of what is said in the referendum campaign.
We have already heard talk from Michelle Mone about how Scotland wouldn’t survive as an independent country and she will leave the country if it happens. We will hear more, much more, of this kind of thing and although it is directed at Scots voters the rest of the world will still hear it.
If I could take a parallel example – why do you think that there is such a large body of opinion in England that Scotland couldn’t survive without being subsidised by England? It’s not because English people are particularly interested in that, nor is it because English politicians have been telling them that. It’s because Scottish politicians have been telling Scots that for years and some English people were listening and so the myth became entrenched as fact. It’s almost amusing in one sense – in an effort to save the Union in Scotland all these politicians have done with their subsidy myth is undermine support for the Union in England.
But back to the point – while I totally agree that the rest of the world is not going to stop and stand and stare with wonder and joy because Scotland has joined in, nonetheless there will be some interest and we will need to establish ourselves and make sure people know that actually Scotland is not a basket case or a kind of backward Ruritania where people wear kilts, eat haggis and toss cabers all day. We are actually a modern country with a well educated population and great natural resources and advantages.
#80 by Tormod on February 3, 2012 - 1:54 pm
Indy my major concern is about the currency, i think we have to be honest and say the current policy is not going to fly and work.
Keep the £ for a transition period, great common sense I see no problem with this.
The euro is a dead duck, the policy then must be we have our own currency and central bank.
It is a large wound our opponents are already attacking, our response most be clear and concise.
We keep the £ pound for 5+ years and then move to our own currency I favour the Scots dollar.
#81 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 2:16 pm
It’s really not a wound at all. If we allowed ourselves be jockeyed into a position of asking people to support a new currency as part of voting for independence we would lose lots of votes which we will otherwise win. Whereas we won’t lose votes by not saying that.
Think about it – people are no going to say I’m voting for the Union instead of independence – because what you are proposing is not independent enough!
The currency issue can be decided after independence. One thing at a time.
#82 by Tormod on February 3, 2012 - 2:32 pm
I agree that the currency will be decided after independence, part of presenting a different narrative is to give an example of what the SNP support and using the tools of both fiscal and monetry policy.
Folk rightly or wrongly see an independent country run by the SNP from day 1.
Folk see the SNP stance on the currency is the defacto stance for the new state.
We must be clear about the pound in the short term and what we want in the 5 years after 2014.
#83 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 4:37 pm
the problem with your last line is simply that if what you want 5 years after is good for scotland, why isnt it good from day one.
Look at greece, and no this isnt gonna be a if scotland goes indy then we will end up as greece rant, but look at greece, a HUGE part of the problem there is a fixed exchange rate. A floating currency may well be what an independent scotland would need to provide cover for any short term economic turbulence.
#84 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 4:59 pm
For every Greece and Italy, there is a Finland and Netherlands. Greece’s problems are far, far deeper than a fixed exchange rate. The main problem is that the Euro covers a wide spectrum of economies. The difference between the Scottish and English economies is more Germany/Finland than Germany/Greece. There are fundamental problems with the Greek economy that should have prevented it from being part of the Euro.
In fact, the Euro is a perfect example of why your first sentence is so ridiculous. If the Euro had taken its time to enlarge, starting with the sure-footed economies of the North first, then it wouldn’t be in trouble today. A separate currency will probably be the answer for Scotland, but let’s see how things goes first.
#85 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 5:43 pm
let me rephrase your last sentence for you.
A seperate currency will probably be the answer for Scotland, But lets see how long it takes for things to go tits up before we get round to sorting that out.
#86 by Doug Daniel on February 4, 2012 - 9:05 pm
Always looking on the bright side, eh? What a depressingly cynical outlook.
It doesn’t mean waiting for things to go tits up. Quite the opposite, in fact.
#87 by Tormod on February 3, 2012 - 5:28 pm
The 5 years was for the mechanical implementation of a new central bank and allowing all parts of the Scots economy to get ready for the currency switch over.
In my thinking it’s about smoothing the transisition from UK to Scotland and RUK.
#88 by Tormod on February 3, 2012 - 5:32 pm
My comment was for Iain.
#89 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 9:33 pm
Yes but I just think the more conditions you attach to independence the more you whittle down the number of people who will vote for it and really on the issue of launching an independent currency I do believe that the unionists would think all their Christmases had come at once if we were to take that position prior to the referendum. Because there would be no end to the scaremongering stories they could manufacture about that. We need to remove as many of the barriers to people voting yes as we can, not put up new ones.
Part of the phenomenon of people wanting to know every last detail about what could happen in an independent Scotland, be it currency. NATO, EU or whatever is partly psychological I think and reflects the fact that we Scots are not used to taking decisions. If you think about it we have been onlookers for so long. the “important” decisions have always been taken at Westminster. In a sense that is the whole point of independence obviously – we need to start doing stuff for ourselves to get better outcomes. But equally we need to recognise that is quite an alarming prospect for those who have been brought up with the Scottish cringe. Always keep a hold of nurse for fear of finding something worse, to quote one of my favourite English writers.
So when people say we are trying to make independence appear easy and as though there won’t be a huge radical change involved – yes we are and I don’t see why we should make any apologies for that. After all we have spent much longer trying to work out how we can win independence than anyone else has. And the underlying element is not the “fantasy football” approach where you demand everything you could possibly want from an independent state. It is exactly what Angus said when he quoted Michael Collins: “it gives us freedom, not the ultimate freedom that all nations desire and develop to, but the freedom to achieve it†We need to get the freedom first, And then it will be a liberating experience for everyone – as liberatimg for unionists actually as for nationalists, which they will realise when it happens.
#90 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 2:22 pm
No we don’t. You are creating difficulties where none exists. The Queen in an independent Scotland will do exactly what she does now. She will open parliament, give her assent to its legislation, host a couple of garden parties and receptions and so on and shoot a ton or so of stags in her spare time. No need for a Governer General or anything of that sort. We’re a small country and we don’t need any more palaver than necessary.
#91 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 4:39 pm
New Zealand is smaller.
I for the life of me cannot undertsand why you want to maintain a head of state that is in semi permanent de facto exile, unless of course that is part of a strategy to then go the whole hog and go for a republic, which is dishonest at best.
#92 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 5:19 pm
Well again this is going to be one of these wait and see things which drive some folks mad.
Because what I think – and James will probably now start jumping up and down now saying ah hah I knew Indy was secretly a Sunday-Post-reading-slipper-wearing-cocoa-drinking tartan- Tory – but I do believe most people in Scotland actually think the Queen is kind of OK
That doesn’t mean they like what she stands for but they think she herself is OK. Even quite ardent nationalists I know, after denouncing the whole British Estabishment and monarchy, will then go on to say of course I don’t have anything against the woman herself, I think she’s done her best and hasn’t always had an easy time of it etc. Just through sheer longevity I think she has earned the grudging respect of a lot of folk who might be against the monarchy in principle but aren’t against her. Helen Mirren has helped as well!
So in my view the future of the monarchy is best decided after she has passed on and it can be looked at afresh, as an institution rather than as a person.
#93 by James on February 3, 2012 - 5:24 pm
I’ve got nothing against her, although her husband is a pretty unpleasant racist. I’m not in favour of the Bolshevik solution: I just think we should retire them. And not in a Bladerunner sense. The moment she goes there’ll be nine months of media outpouring and then a honeymoon for Charles – at which point we’ll find it hard to remove a new incumbent. If we haven’t achieved independence first, I’d nominate him for the first term anyway. Just to show it’s not personal.
It’s the tax stuff that makes me think you’re a tartan Tory, btw 😉
#94 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 5:36 pm
She probably will retire to some extent – probably to Balmoral lol.
But I genuinely think if we held a referendum on the monarchy tomorrow most people would vote to keep the Queen – they wouldn’t be voting on the monarchy as such but on the position of the Queen herself. They’d think she’s been there 50 odd years, has always done her best in what is quite a ridiculous job, it would just leave a bad taste in the mouth to say to her well thanks for all the Queens speecehs and everything else but now we have decided we want rid of you just when she is approaching the final straight.
#95 by James on February 3, 2012 - 5:37 pm
I don’t mind if Scots (or British, if this referendum goes down) vote to keep her. I’d just like us to have a say for the first time ever (if you don’t count Cromwell).
#96 by Iain Menzies on February 3, 2012 - 5:45 pm
Thank you that man.
#97 by Doug Daniel on February 3, 2012 - 7:52 pm
But wouldn’t it be better to have that vote when sentimentality won’t get in the way of people’s judgement?
Also, you touched on the inevitable public outpouring of grief we’ll see when she passes. We’ll get that regardless of whether we’re a republic at the time or not.
#98 by Indy on February 3, 2012 - 9:07 pm
Yes that’s my point. It would be very difficult to detach the “issue” of the monarchy from the real live person of the Queen as long as she is still around. It’s a bit tasteless to say wait till she isn’t around but that is kind of what I am saying!
#99 by Richard on February 4, 2012 - 4:00 am
It’s not dishonest, it’s simply taking one step at a time; dealing with the important issue first, then the irrelevant anachronism later.
#100 by Richard on February 4, 2012 - 3:57 am
We’ve been here before, i.e. 1603-1707, and I don’t see why that solution wouldn’t work equally well now. The Chancellor (or Speaker, or Presiding Officer) of the Parliament acts for the monarch in her (or his) absence.
#101 by Chris on February 4, 2012 - 11:12 am
Bulgaria’s and Denmark’s position is like the UK’s before the collapse of the ERM. Those reserves could disappear in an instant if speculators attacked. The same could happen to Scotland in a period of weakness e.g. low oil prices or a fault in a pipeline.
#102 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 9:46 am
The sky could fall in tomorrow as well – have you taken this into consideration?
#103 by Scottish_Skier on February 4, 2012 - 7:30 pm
It is for the Government of an independent Scotland to decide what currency to use. The SNP have proposed keeping the pound initially. That makes obvious sense.
Does anyone know what currency Labour, the Libs and the Tories are proposing for an independent Scotland? I mean what if one of them wins the first independent Scottish general election? I have asked around and it seems none of these parties have a manifesto for an indepenedent Scotland. This indicates a serious lack of forward planning to me and is probably part of the reason they are doing so badly in polls.
#104 by Doug Daniel on February 5, 2012 - 1:35 pm
Yes, it’s depressingly par for course that Labour et al are being let off with just rubbishing the idea of keeping Sterling, without being forced to tell us what the better alternative is. Obviously they’ll just say “stay in the union”, but that’s an extremely narrow-minded way of looking at it.
But then, they’re not even being forced to say how they would ensure further devolution is achieved, or which powers they’d devolve, in the scenario of Scotland voting no, as they are asking us to do. So it’s hardly a surprise they’re getting away with it.
#105 by Chris on February 6, 2012 - 6:01 pm
It’s not par for the course. It is simply the problem that the SNP are proposing to change the status quo. No one else wants independence so they have no responsibility to make the referendum discussion about any other vision. They don’t even have to make a case for the Union, just ask enough questions about why independence and why now?
#106 by James on February 6, 2012 - 6:08 pm
Chris, you know the Greens (and also most of the former SSP diaspora) formally support independence, as well as many non-aligned voters and groups.
#107 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 9:54 am
See Chris, this is what I’m on about in Calum’s post yesterday. “No one else wants independence” – sorry, but independence is not an SNP solo project, and to try to claim otherwise is completely disingenuous.
This is an important decision people have to make. Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the union will almost certainly change, regardless of the result. So if the unionist parties want to show they can be grown-ups and be responsible, they need to be telling us why we should be staying in the union, not merely telling us why we shouldn’t vote for independence. This may be a yes/no referendum, but the reality is people will be voting for which direction they want Scotland to go – continue with the union, or become independent. It’s the responsibility of both sides to make their case. If anyone is incapable of doing that, then people need to ask themselves why that is.
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