A most welcome guest today from Calum Wright, who very occasionally blogs at North By Left. Calum is a graduate of the University of St Andrews and is currently studying towards a Masters at Uppsala Universitet in Sweden. He specialises in early modern northern European history with specific interests in seventeenth century Britain, the history of ideas and political thought.
Monday saw the launch of a broad coalition of those with an interest in the future of Scotland, a coalition which presumably includes everyone in this country and a few more beside. The endeavour is as noble as it is unfocused, attempting to tackle the complex issue of ‘devolution max’, a constitutional conundrum more profound than independence. It is, of course, important that civic Scotland is engaged in the debate at all levels, but I am concerned that on the side of independence the SNP dominates, threatening to stifle all debate.
It is right that the SNP, which has campaigned ceaselessly and imaginatively for independence, should voice their well considered views. But they should not be the only voice, not even, dare I suggest it, the main voice. The mainstream media has so far ignored the Scottish Greens, but beyond the political parties represented at Holyrood there needs to be a pro-independence coalition which encompasses civic Scotland in all its variety.
Of course it can be argued that the SNP is itself a coalition of disparate interests, gathered together under Salmond’s big top with independence as the pole supporting the structure. Under that canvas huddle tartan tories and socialists, traditionalists and radicals, liberals and conservatives, republicans and monarchists. So the SNP is fundamentally unable to articulate a vision of post-independence Scotland partly because it can’t agree on what it should look like.
The SNP have therefore adopted a fairly conservative position, undoubtedly out of a desire not to frighten the horses as it were. However, this cautious approach risks hampering the swell of self-confidence which is growing in Scotland. The likelihood of independence is becoming real, and once this realisation has dawned the lid is lifted on the possibilities it offers. The unionists want to frighten Scots by trying to overwhelm them with this very fact: think of all the new institutions, civil servants, government departments, embassies, laws, legislation etcetera that will be required, they say.
So far the SNP response has been to offer some rough suggestions, which is appropriate given that future policies are the prerogative of future governments, not current ones. But a better response, and one which should involve all pro-independence parties, organisations and individuals in debate, is to say, “Yes, think of all the new things that will be required.†This is a huge change, and one that requires the people of Scotland not to sit in the audience but to take to the stage and participate in. Independence is too important to be left to the politicians.
The monumental implications and attendant possibilities of independence have been grasped by a only few and articulated by even less. Just yesterday a junior defence minister, in response to MPs’ questions about the future of Trident, stated that ‘The government are [sic] not making plans for independence as we are confident that people in Scotland will continue to support the Union in any referendum.’ Many people continue to act as if nothing will happen and many Scots remain pessimistic, burying their hopes of profound change under a traditional façade of cynicism and self-deprecation.
The problem is that the unionists warble on about technicalities and policies which are the right of post-independence parliaments alone, whilst the SNP offers, at least publicly, a timid imagining of Scotland’s future, rhetorically inspiring but ultimately nebulous. Dr Peter Lynch has written on Better Nation that ‘Independence is not a year zero for government or government institutions. Rather it is a case of bolting on new policy responsibilities… onto existing government institutions and organisations’.
This is a rather unexciting prospect. Surely the sine qua non of self-rule is the right to make decisions independently, irrespective of whether they are right or wrong. This includes the right to imagine a new Scotland, not necessarily mimicking the constitutional structures of England nor kowtowing to a fictitious constitutional past. I do not have a bold plan for a utopian Scotland at hand, but I do believe that the debate about Scotland’s future should not stop at the answer to Salmond’s proposed question. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes. No.
There is more to be discussed, and if the SNP are left as the safe, curiously reassuring arbiters of the meaning of independence we may wake up in an independent Scotland where so much has changed, yet nothing at all. Specific policies are of course the responsibility of future Scottish governments, but I want to see the Scottish imagination awoken as part of a process of shaking off an ingrained inferiority complex and shedding the dependency psyche which the union has burdened Scots with. We should think more in terms of what independence could mean rather than what it would mean.
#1 by David Lee on February 6, 2012 - 9:57 am
Unfortunately, the SNP are likely to have a monopoly on visions of independence, as the Lib/Lab/Con coalition flatly refuse to contribute anything positive to the debate. I’d like to hear more from the Greens, but they seem to be making very few ripples in the mainstream press.
Still, two years to go, maybe someone else in the political sphere will dare step up and contribute. Until then, it’s up to the bloggers.
#2 by Aidan on February 6, 2012 - 10:49 am
The whole thrust of the SNPs argument at the moment is that independence will be great but nothing will have changed.
#3 by Doug Daniel on February 6, 2012 - 11:47 am
Whereas the thrust of the unionist argument appears to be that Scotland will plummet into economic collapse if we vote for independence.
#4 by Aidan on February 6, 2012 - 12:26 pm
Nope, it’s that independence as currently conceived is likely to actually reduce the power of Scots to govern ourselves by removing our influence over currency.
#5 by James on February 6, 2012 - 1:01 pm
Which is one part of the reason I, as a supporter of independence, want an independent currency. Other than the sheer economic good sense of it.
#6 by Doug Daniel on February 6, 2012 - 1:42 pm
Monetary policy is a reserved matter – you can’t remove an influence that doesn’t exist.
But even ignoring that, are you saying that a Scottish Government in full control of fiscal policy, home affairs, trade & industry, all energy policy, all transport policy, social security, professional regulation, employment, broadcasting, WMDs and much more besides – but without control of monetary policy – would be less powerful than the current devolved government? Because that’s what it sounds like.
#7 by Iain Menzies on February 6, 2012 - 3:47 pm
there is more to scottish government than the scottish exec/holyrood. i know that doesnt play to the nationalist script but it is the reality.
the bank of england has a duty to respond to the interests of the british economy, which includes (oddly enough) scotland. does it give the scottish economy enough consideration, probably not, but then it depends how you judge these things. would it really be in the interests of scots, or scotland, to see the south east of england tank so that you can have a few more business start ups in the central belt?
the point that is being made, and that you seem to willfully ignore, is that independence, would take any legal duty for the MPC to consider scottish considerations out of they policy process, at least beyond the impact that scottish economic performance would have on england.
#8 by Galen10 on February 6, 2012 - 2:26 pm
How so? There are plenty of precedents for this type of thing. People aren’t going to make their minds up about independence on the basis of individual policy items like what currency we use post any future “yes” vote.
No doubt in the interim we will still be using the UK pound, or be tied to it… there are plenty of precedents for similar situations; however if that seems untenable, undesireable or simply doesn’t feel right in terms of not having enough influence, then it’s hardly outwith the ken of man to change it.
Whether the Euro is still around, or whether we have a Scottish pound/merk/bawbee is something for the future; getting hung up about it now is at best a distraction, and a worst just another Unionist bogey man.
#9 by haarandrime on February 6, 2012 - 11:19 am
These are my thoughts exactly. I know that independence might not happen and that things like the currency etc are extremely important issues but I crave for a space where visions for a future Scotland can be articulated. The exciting prospect of new political spaces opening up post-independence and new ways and methods of doing things and providing services in a more community led way needs to be discussed in a non-political party way. I think both Gerry Hassan and Bellacaledonia are opening up these debates but what seems to be lacking is a way of facilitating this. I don’t have the language to engage in this on party political lines but deep inside there is a rising excitement and optimism about what we can achieve. So a plea – can someone come up with means of facilitating this via a website/twitter/ joined up blogging where people like me, a small voice, can have a say even if it is just a thought. Something like the Futureof Scotland campaign but wider in scope and not associated with the status quo. I welcome others’ thoughts on this.
#10 by Galen10 on February 6, 2012 - 12:08 pm
There are 2 seperate issues here: the first is the role of other parties or civic groups in offering up an alternative vision of “life after independence”, and the second is whether the SNP can or should present its detailed view of post-independence Scotland, and whether it really matters if they do or not.
I don’t think many people (even supporters of the SNP) think they have a monopoly of visions of independence; the party is for most a vehicle to achieve the goal of independence, hence many people don’t expect it to survive independence in anything like it’s current form.
As recent events have shown, “all” the SNP really has to do is convince enough of the Scottish people that they would be better off taking the leap, and that an independent Scotland would on balance have a better prospect of delivering the long term social outcomes they want. For decades the Unionist parties and establishment have been able to rely on the judgement on this being to play safe and reject independence.
Arguably however events since last May represent a sea-change, and have served to accelerate the existing re-balancing of that long standing judgement. An increasing number of Scots now feel that things couldn’t be worse, and may well be considerably better if they opt for independence. Labour’s implosion in Scotland, and it’s lamentable performance over the past few months, is hugely significant.
There is no other voice to promote a coherent devo-max or “save the Union” message. The atavistic calls to play safe don’t seem to be working anymore… or at least not to the same extent. Trying to bounce the Scottish voters into a “no” vote by scaring them with the bogey men (mostly imaginary) of Unionist nightmares may in fact result in the very outcome Unionists dread.
People aren’t going to make their minds up based on the minutiae, or just on the economic question; in the end much of it will be on a fairly broad brush judgement about whether the Union is past it’s sell by date; the “too wee, too poor, too stupid” fears need to be overcome… and if they have been, then independence becomes much easier to achieve, though by no means a shoo-in.
The second issue relates to the evolution of detailed plans. I would argue that it is unreasonable to expect hugely detailed plans of what a post independence Scotland would look like. Many areas will need to be negotiated post “yes†vote. There are many unknowables, or things which may come out of the woodwork which were unforeseen. Few if any need be insurmountable, tho’ doubtless some may take years to definitively settle.
There are still some 2.5 years until the putative vote, so no doubt lots of different policy areas will be raked over; there will be loads more scare stories (probably from both sides!), and lots of point scoring. In the end however, the Unionists may find it harder than they have in the past to convince Scots that the sky will fall the day after a “yes†vote. Life will no doubt carry on much the same; there will still still be taxes to pay, jobs to go to, lives to be lived. I think there IS a developing vision of what Scots want their future to be, and it isn’t the preserve of the SNP, altho’ Alex Salmond has begun to tap into a fairly inchoate feeling that we can do better, have a more social democratic model and egalitarian society without a lot of the negative baggage of the UK polity. Much of that may simply be couched in negative terms of looking at things now we don’t like, and doing them differently… but there is also a positive message of building on things which are already different and emphasising them, developing them and ensuring that there is clear water between our shared vision of what an independent Scotland could and should be, and the alternative of what should be presented as more of the same.
#11 by Doug Daniel on February 6, 2012 - 12:09 pm
Unfortunately, how the debate proceeds is based largely on how the media choose to frame it. It’s the media who choose to use the SNP as the sole voice for independence, which very handily creates the illusion that independence = SNP = independence. This means attacks on the SNP and SNP policy for independence become proxy attacks on the idea of independence itself. I’ve witnessed it myself thanks to my Tory-voting friend (I don’t understand how he can be so proud of it) who gleefully tells me about things he’s read that are critical of Salmond, and somehow joins the dots to make it about independence.
Unless, of course, it’s actually the case that Scottish Greens, Margo and other pro-independence voices are actively refusing to take part in debates, which I find rather implausible to say the least.
We’re being failed by our media, basically. They should be picking this up and running with it, because you could fill pages and pages with the stuff, but instead they’d rather just wallow in negative headlines and allow themselves to be distracted by the uninteresting stuff that turns people off the debate. Again, very convenient. I expect there is a fear that by allowing people to think about what independence COULD be, it makes them more open to the idea in the first place, and quickly the idea of keeping the status quo becomes utterly absurd. Much safer to shut down debate and just focus on things that are either boring or easy to make sound scary.
#12 by Indy on February 6, 2012 - 12:23 pm
The media won’t pick anything up and run with it until there is actually something to pick up. They did give some coverage to the launch of the SCVO led body but I think the problem is that it’s all too incohate, the media are simple creatures, they don’t like complexity.
There are plenty of forums out there that could bring people together, like the Scottish Independence Convention. And we have events like the Festival of Politics. If that is not themed around independence this year it will be bizarre!
#13 by Aidan on February 6, 2012 - 12:26 pm
Excellent use of the word “inchoate”, five points.
#14 by Alex Buchan on February 6, 2012 - 1:40 pm
I think you’re only half right about the media because both the unionist parties and the SNP are adding to this problem. It suits the unionists to focus solely on the SNP as you conservative friend seems to allude to. They not only want to undermine independence through attacking Alex Samond and the SNP, they also want to imply that there isn’t much support for devolution outside of the SNP and that somehow they represent the silent majority, and lastly they want the no vote in the referendum to do maximum damage to the SNP so it suits them to see independence and the SNP as synonymous. The SNP add to this by being happy to be seen as the force behind the push for independence, I feel this is a missed opportunity by the SNP. They could for instance try to make more reference to others like Margo or the Greens and enter into talks with the Greens and others on joint campaigning. I don’t pretend to know what in all this is feasible but they do need to be countering this approach by the unionists to focus only on the SNP. The rest of us have a responsibility to start thinking about the practicalities of setting up some kind of mass non-aligned campaign.
#15 by Dubbieside on February 6, 2012 - 3:05 pm
Alex
I think you are correct and the SNP certainly need to be talking to the Greens. The Greens could predicable pursue the green angle with removal of Trident and Scotland becoming nuclear free being both high on Scotlands agenda, and an area where Patrick Harvie could score heavily.
Margo to cover social responsibility maybe.
I also agree with Calum, it would appear to be the perfect opportunity to look at new ways of running government functions.
Examples that I can think of about changing how things run at present. Do we really need a DVLA in its present form in Scotland? How about scrubbing road tax and putting the tax on Petrol so that the user pays. I read somewhere that the UK tax system is so complicated that 48p in the £ collect goes on admin. No company would accept costs that high, we must be able to come up with a simpler fairer system when we can start from scratch.
A radical approach to how government in an independent Scotland could be, could give an extra incentive to the electorate, on why the future of Scotland is so much brighter with independence.
We have after all the whole world to look at for good examples of good government, and have no need to just follow the old Westminster examples.
#16 by Indy on February 6, 2012 - 7:18 pm
Eh? I thought the point is NOT to have a top-down SNP run campaign. I don’t think the Greens would be too chuffed if we told them what they ought to be campaigning on and as for Margo. Er …
#17 by Alex Buchan on February 6, 2012 - 12:52 pm
I agree with haarandrime, this article is overdue, but I think the danger is not as Calum concludes; that we could end up in an independent Scotland where nothing much has changed. The likelihood is more that Scotland will once again have its latest permutation of the Argentina 1978 syndrome, where we will go into the referendum unprepared, without the necessary active involvement in the campaign of all those who really yearn for change and will come out of the referendum with a result that will satisfy no-one except the most cynical unionist politicians.
The large levels of cynical calculation that Calum outlines is on all sides and will ultimately, not only kill off independence, but any prospect of radical change. Because, to be honest, that’s what happening; the unionist parties are cynically refusing to engage in the process of discussing Scotland’s future because they want to make the referendum into a referendum on the SNP in the hope of inflicting massive damage to the SNP when the public vote no. The SNP are being both cynical and short sighted in thinking that a country can win independence though a slick one party operation, where the campaign will be based less on principle and more on what they think the public will buy. Lastly the public are being cynical because they claim in opinion polls to want a referendum on independence, but in their responses to the opinion poll in yesterday’s Sunday Times it’s clear that they are not prepared to take any financial risks, even though it might be better for themselves and their children.
Of the three, it is the public that has most excuse for its behaviour because there hasn’t been the kind of inspiring politically non-aligned campaign that would life the debate onto a higher more principled level. I don’t think we just need to discuss what an Independent Scotland could mean we need to either find a way of making that a very inclusive process drawing in far larger numbers of people than the usual suspects or alternative have that discussion alongside vigorous campaigning but such a non-aligned pro-independence group. Whichever form it takes the important point is that we have to start making an impact in the wider public debate by demonstrating a more exciting and principles vision of a future Scotland.
#18 by Indy on February 6, 2012 - 1:22 pm
All these debates tend to end the same – this needs to happen, that needs to happen. There ought to be a discussion of this, there ought to be a debate about that. The SNP doesn’t represent everyone who believes in independence, other voices need to be heard etc.
Agreed. So get on with it.
#19 by An Duine Gruamach on February 6, 2012 - 2:41 pm
Yep. There seems to be a funny situation in which the SNP are meant to not only define Devo-Max (which they don’t want), but also to define (and push for?) other, non-SNP visions of independence. Blethers. Let those who want Devo-Max do their thing, and those who want their own vision of independence do their thing. The SNP isn’t there to represent other people’s points of view, they’re there to campaign for their own.
When the campaign proper starts (battle buses, TV debates etc.) I’m sure there will be a broader base for the Yes side than at present, but I still fail to see why the SNP ought to be expending time on telling the public what other people think.
#20 by Iain Menzies on February 6, 2012 - 3:52 pm
quite right, the SNP shouldnt tell people what people who arent the SNP think….tho to listen to alex salmond sometimes he acts like everyone in scotland agrees with him.
what would be nice is if the SNP were just a wee bitty clearer on what it is that they think.
#21 by Doug Daniel on February 6, 2012 - 4:01 pm
Indeed, at times it feels like people want the SNP to tie their shoelaces for them. The crux of this whole debate is whether Scotland needs to depend on the UK or not. How do we do that if people are dependent on others to make that case for them?
#22 by Bugger (the Panda) on February 6, 2012 - 3:33 pm
DevMax is not within the Scottish People’s gift, according to the Devolution settlement. It is a reserved matter and to try and negotiate that, if it has not been defined and agreed by the unionist sides, after a positive vote would be a recipe for treacle politics, chicanery and insincere negotiation, on the part of the unionist side.
Only independence is the Scottish Peoples’ right to take.
#23 by Alex Buchan on February 6, 2012 - 4:53 pm
OK. All I’ll say then is that the media won’t change. The UK (including Scottish) media, as well as liking simple, Punch and Judy political reporting, also has a stake in the debate both through its individual journalists and its editorial stance. So I can’t see the media changing much between now and 2014.
Of course the dynamics of the political situation could change and that might change the general reporting. If say the SNP made a massive breakthrough in the local elections or an early UK general election and the Tories won an overall majority in the UK without increasing their support in Scotland (or the SNP made a breakthrough at UK level).
But none of these types of things can be predicted or relied on. So unless something new comes along, like a new development on the independence side, the media will pretty much carry on like it is now. I take none of you three thought much of Calum’s article.
#24 by Teri Forsyth on February 6, 2012 - 7:48 pm
Whilst I agree with much you say, Calum, I think little is being said at the moment as the Independence Referendum is still a long way off. I do think that as we get nearer the time, an SNP vison for an Independent Scotland will emerge. I also think we will find that policies will exist by then for all areas. I believe the time factor is also why we have heard nothing from the Greens to date, but feel sure they will be doing a lot of plannig of their own.. There are two other parties who are pro independence that I am aware of: The Scottish Democratic Alliance, whose website is here:
http://scottishdemocraticalliance.org/ and the SSP. Neither have any members in Holyrood but I believe the scottish democratic alliance intend fielding candidates if Independence is successfully achieved. I think we will find that all these parties will be planning their policies, campaigns etc over the next few months and will make their voices heard nearer the time. The Greens and the SNP may well be talking to each other for all we know. It is also possible that all will be doing so after the processes are sorted out and agreed, which will take time. We will need to wait and see. I’m the eternal optimist and hope this is the case.
#25 by Steve on February 6, 2012 - 7:52 pm
At the last meeting of the independence convention I went to, which was just before Christmas, some nice young chap from the SNP talked about the role of the SNP and the role of the convention as he saw it, suggesting that the SNP would take care of a lot of the politics (legislating for a referendum etc.) and would provide a lot of the hard work, knocking on doors, that kind of thing, but that the convention had an important role widening the debate out to civic Scotland, speaking to people in our own communities, developing ideas about what kind of Scotland we want to live in etc.
I respectfully suggest that people complaining on twitter and blogs like this about the SNP dictating everything to do with independence get involved with the convention and try to ensure it develops its work in ways they would like, they seem like a friendly bunch to me, happy to share their goal of independence with anyone who wants to get involved.
#26 by Barbarian on February 6, 2012 - 7:52 pm
Neither side will agree.
Unionist cast a negative outlook.
Nationalists cast the vision of an economic utopia.
People who are not prepared to take a financial risk should not be criticised. If they lose out, they could lose their home, their pension. Their children could be suffer as they have to move into rented or social housing.
These are points that must be addressed by the SNP.
Similarily, it is no good the unionists talking about an economic desert.
If both sides continue, then the SNP will lose the referendum, but the unionists will also lose out and we will have even more cynicism about politics.
We need some honesty – rapidly.
#27 by Angus McLellan on February 6, 2012 - 10:02 pm
The only honest thing that can be said about the future is that it is uncertain. And anyone looking for more openness – honesty is really the wrong word – than that had better have plenty of time on their hands because it’ll be a long story.
It would be helpful – for everyone, not just us in Scotland – if the Treasury, HMRC and the ONS made some effort to produce more detailed regional breakdowns of their data. But there’s no evidence that they will and, as Alan Trench suggested the other day, not-so-subtle hints that they will not. However good or bad a job the Scottish Govt’s experts do every forecast rests mainly on data generated by UK government agencies. The only people with the power to order the Treasury’s experts, HMRC or the ONS to get busy would be one or more of Cameron, Clegg, Osborne, Alexander and Gauke. If you think it will help, write to your MP and ask them to raise the issue in parliament or start one of those e-petitions.
But even if there was more and better data, it wouldn’t alter the fact that economists are damn sight better at predicting events after they have happened than before they happen, and that their models of the world are – to be blunt – crap. Past performance may be a poor guide to future performance, but I can’t see that there is a better one. You can’t know how an independent Scotland will look, but you can find out in some detail what changes independence wrought in Ireland and in Norway or in Slovakia and Slovenia. And if you’d prefer horror stories, take a look at what happened to most of the new states of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1920s.
#28 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 9:42 am
This “economic utopia” thing is a bit silly. No one in the SNP has said independence will make every man, woman and child in Scotland rich beyond their wildest dreams. We’ve merely said that Scotland will be better off. If we truly were trying to say Scotland will be an economic utopia, we’d be saying Scotland would be the MOST prosperous nation in the world, not merely the 6th!
Look at the difference between your two statements:
“Unionist cast a negative outlook” (rational statement)
“Nationalists cast a vision of an economic utopia” (hyperbole)
You always seem to be pretty capable of looking at things in a critical manner, and yet you’re falling for the unionist ploy of making people think the nationalist outlook is somehow pie in the sky.
You’re correct that people’s main concerns when thinking about this sort of decision (and perhaps most decisions) are losing their home and pension. But really, how is that going to happen just because we become independent? More to the point, people who feel their home or pension is on such shaky ground should be asking whether they are any safer under the current Westminster government, who are increasingly unemployment at an alarming rate and have already declared war on public pensions, after Gordon Brown already raided private ones.
You’re right, if people have these concerns, they need to have their minds put at ease. But these same people would do well to consider just how realistic these fears are, and not get taken in by talk of, as you put it, Scotland becoming an economic desert.
#29 by Craig Kelly on February 6, 2012 - 8:53 pm
Excellent post, Calum. I thoroughly agree with the trajectory of your thoughts. It is natural that the SNP will dominate the pro-independence camp since – as you rightly put it – in many ways the party is itself a little more like a convention as it houses people of all political persuasions under one roof. I would guess this is a little less so nowadays – although I would happily stand corrected by anyone with a more intimate knowledge than I possess.
My point, however, is that it might be hard for others to be heard or to make room for themselves. Is it not the case that the overwhelming majority of people who support independence and have something to say will just join the nats and use that as their forum? And can you blame them? I understand what you’re calling for, and I agree, but I wonder if it is a little unrealistic. No disrespect to the Independence Convention, but I just don’t see them playing a pivotal role. Perhaps, instead, we should demand for more imagination from the SNP, more clarity on what their vision of Scotland is: whilst the caveat always remains that these are decisions for future governments, the SNP could tell us what independence looks like to them.
#30 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 9:22 am
I don’t agree with that. The SNP are entitled to present the case as they see fit, rather than have other people trying to tell them how they should do it. If people want to influence the SNP’s vision, then they should have joined the party and made their voice heard in the years before now, rather than jumping on the bandwagon after the SNP have done the hard work.
Remember that the SNP are not the only pro-independence party represented in Holyrood. If independence is your chief aim, then chances are you’ll have signed up to them, but there are those who focus first and foremost on other issues, such as the Greens and SSP. We need these voices to become greater to show people that independence really isn’t just an SNP vanity project, and so not be subsumed into the SNP. As the Scottish Independence Convention is a genuinely cross-party organisation, it’s the perfect forum for this, and hopefully its voice will become stronger in time.
Perhaps we just need to wait for a lot of the tired arguments to wear thin first. After all, we still have people banging on about the date of the referendum, even though it has been pretty much accepted by all that it will be Autumn 2014. We can’t progress to a mature debate until this sort of self-denial has passed.
#31 by Iain Menzies on February 7, 2012 - 6:05 pm
I may be wrong, on account of getting bored pretty damned quickly of the date stuff…..but arent the consultations still on going. Does the Scottish Exec still not have the power to call the referendum? Unless im wrong on both counts….then we dont yet have a firm date for the referendum do we?
#32 by Doug Daniel on February 8, 2012 - 9:41 am
Way to prove my point, Iain, particularly in calling the Scottish Government “the Scottish Exec”.
The date may not be set in stone yet, but it’s been widely accepted as the timing, hence why everyone talks of “two and a half years”. Only the most tiresome of people still want to whine about it. The consultation is more about which day of the week to hold it on, unless people agree en masse that the referendum should be earlier. But until and unless that comes about, moaning about the date is just boring – as you’ve essentially admitted yourself.
#33 by Iain Menzies on February 7, 2012 - 6:02 pm
“party is itself a little more like a convention as it houses people of all political persuasions under one roof”
so….how many of you are Tories? 😉
#34 by Calum Wright on February 7, 2012 - 1:11 am
Hey Craig, I accept that my position may be a little unrealistic, but my worry is that the debate about what independence could mean may remain an internal SNP one, excluding outside voices and presenting a unified front to the outside world. It would be probably necessary, however, for the SNP to take the lead in opening up a dialogue, including at least the Greens, but allowing other groups to be heard, all as part of a process of awakening people to the possibilities of independence beyond economics and platitudes. I’m just not sure the SNP would be willing to do this since it might unsettle their no-doubt carefully laid strategy. I would hope that once the consultation has finished there could be a multi-party / non-political convention to discuss its findings. This shouldn’t, in the end, be about the SNP winning a referendum, but about the people of Scotland winning.
As for the Independence Convention – their voice has gone largely unheard, and at this crucial time their website is being updated. A relaunch may be required, since most Scots have never heard of it, nor could name any of its achievements since being founded in 2005.
I agree with the Greens that the referendum ‘should spark an era of radical Scottish democracy’, not simply transferring bureaucracy from Westminster to Holyrood.
#35 by Indy on February 7, 2012 - 1:03 pm
Part of the reason you may see the SNP as monopolising the debate is because the SNP has been thinking about independence and planning how a referendum could be won for a long time. Whereas the Greens and other pro-independence parties and non-aligned voices haven’t.
That’s not a criticism. It’s quite understandable. The SNP is the only political party which places a priority on independence and many other people who may support independence also have other priorities and issues so it’s not been their main focus.
But that has created a situation where a lot of people are really just starting to think about issues that the SNP has been thinking about for a long time and are maybe thinking – well, why are they taking this position on the monarchy or currency or whatever because I don’t like the sound of that. But you know if they had been going round speaking to lots of people and working out what might make them more or less likely to support independence in a referendum maybe they would have arrived at the same conclusions as the SNP. Or maybe they wouldn’t have – I don’t know. But they would have been thinking about it 5, 10, 15 years ago instead of just really starting to think about it now.
So where we are right now is that the SNP has its plan and its really not going to change because we think we have worked through every angle that we can work through. There is absolutely no obligation on anyone else who supports independence to go with the SNP’s plan. I would not expect Tommy Sheridan or Rosie Kane or Patrick Harvie or Margo to support everything the SNP is saying, nor would I expect any of the non-aligned people to do that either. And it wouldn’t help us if they did. What I would expect them to do, however, is to work out their own position and not just say we think the SNP is wrong. Because a cross-party campaign has to allow for different positions. We worked hand-in-glove with the Lib Dems and Labour on the Devolution referendum but there was no requirement on the different parties to put forward the same policies for a devolved parliament. The campaign was simply about getting support for the Scottish Parliament itself and that also needs to be the focus of the Yes campaign for independence.
#36 by Indy on February 7, 2012 - 7:39 am
There are a couple of further points I would make.
1. Don’t assume that the issues that the media and unionist parties are obsessed about concerning independence are the issues that voters care most about. There will be some crossover but the main issues that real people will be concerned about are the ones that will affect them directly. At the moment the media and unionist parties are basically probing to see what political weaknesses they think they can identify and trying to lay traps for us. Because that is their motivation – and because Labour’s doorstep/telephone operation is mainly about talking down independence/devo max – there is every chance that they won’t actually pick up on what people really think and what questions they really have. Whereas the SNP is in a better position to do that because we are asking and listening. The more information you have about what people like about independence and what scares them about independence the more able you are to target your message.
2. When we get closer to the short campaign there will be a “Yes” and a “No” campaign set up, just as there was for Devolution. They will be cross-party and will also have people from no parties. During the short campaign the Scottish Government will not be able to participate directly. No Government resources will be used etc. That won’t mean that Scottish ministers won’t be involved because of course they will be as SNP members – but they will also have their day jobs to do. So even if the SNP wanted it to be a totally SNP-run campaign – which we don’t – it couldn’t be anyway.
#37 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 12:13 pm
“and because Labour’s doorstep/telephone operation is mainly about talking down independence/devo max”
I’ve never actually given much thought to what Labour (and others, presumably) are saying on doorsteps etc about independence. It’s one thing to go on TV and lie or be quoted in newspapers speaking rubbish, but it’s quite another if people are going round people’s homes and spreading the some kind of misinformation that they do elsewhere. Whatever people’s views on independence are, surely the thought of politicos going round doors preying on people’s fears in their own homes is quite sickening?
Then again, I suppose it probably happens in every election…
#38 by Alex Buchan on February 7, 2012 - 1:31 pm
Indy, I totally agree that the main concern will be personal security, but that doesn’t mean that people won’t be actively filtering the information they get through the media, it not as straightforward as you seem to suggest. For instance in UK general elections (where voting is, likewise, mainly about peoples own security) people often base their choice on a vague sense of which party is more credible on the economy. That’s why issues like the credibility of the SNP’s plans to keep the pound have significant effects on people’s assessment of whether independence would be personally risky or not. People will discuss amongst themselves and if a view becomes prevalent that the SNP’s economic plans are not credible that view will be hard to shift.
Similarly many of the scare stories in the press are often targeted at people’s personal worries over their own security. Stories about job losses due to the closure of Faslane for instance have a drip, drip, psychological effect of suggesting that the negative consequences of independence are unpredictable. Even someone who wants to get rid of trident may also sub consciously be affected by such subliminal messages. That’s why the press will make a difference to how people think. The ability of SNP canvassing to help the SNP counter these things will be important, but we shouldn’t underestimate the effect of scare stories in the press in forming long term assumptions about just how viable independence is.
#39 by Indy on February 7, 2012 - 3:13 pm
Yes I agree – I’m not discounting the impact of a negative media agenda at all. But you know it won’t just be people thinking about jobs at Faslane that will make them consider whether independence would be good or bad for them. Everyone will. If you are a postie what will independence mean for you, if you work for Tesco, or if you are a teacher, or if you work for Network Rail? Everyone will be thinking what will it actually mean for me but the media will only focus on what they think are clear cut “sexy” issues like Faslane. They are not necessarily going to say what will independence mean for the librarians of Scotland. But it will mean something to the librarians even if no-one else cares.
#40 by Alex Buchan on February 7, 2012 - 3:47 pm
Indy. Thanks for that. Yes you are right it has a far wider impact. It’s only when it’s pointed out like this that I for one can start to see that. I suspect with the media it’s not just if something is sexy but also if it’s believable; Tesco’s now has a store in Beijing, and everyone would assume that post and rail will still operate in an independent Scotland, but you’re right, even if people won’t lose their jobs necessarily there will still be question marks over what the new set up
#41 by Craig Kelly on February 7, 2012 - 1:50 pm
It’s not the case that I don’t want the Independence Convention to be a robust voice in the political discourse leading up to the referendum, I just don’t see it happening. Doug, your answer to my comment is in part what worries me. You say that, ‘As the Scottish Independence Convention is a genuinely cross-party organisation, it’s the perfect forum for this,’ but what of those who are not members of political parties, is there room for the voice of civic Scotland? I don’t know much about the Independence Convention, but I fear that it may just be another forum for political anoraks (I would consider myself one of those, so no offence intended).
Calum, I completely agree that this vote should be bigger than any political party; in fact it should be bigger than politics. This is a potential turning point for our nation where independence can – possibly – spur a reawakened sense of civic responsibility. I know that personally I want to be a part of shaping Scotland post-independence, in whatever small role that may be, and I believe many other ex-pats must feel the same. This is a chance, a really special and unique chance, to forge an exciting future for ourselves.
I just hope we take it.
#42 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 3:16 pm
Sorry Craig, I should have been clearer there. When I said “cross-party”, I really just meant that it wasn’t tied to any particular party. The more correct term (and the one they themselves use) is “cross-party/no party group”.