In what may yet prove a knockout blow, Mitt Romney swept to victory in Florida on Tuesday with a huge 46% of the popular vote in Florida. Ask any SNP member how a big a share of the vote 46% is and they will tell you in no uncertain, glowing terms.
Given that no US President has won re-election with unemployment levels higher than 7.2% (current rate is ~8.5%), perhaps we should get used to seeing Mitt’s face in the papers, despite “having second place stamped through him like a stick of rock”.
We shall wait and see of course but a blue-blooded special relationship of Romney & Cameron will make Clinton & Blair look positively socialist by comparison.
The Tory/Republican/Tea Party/Libertarian (pick a branch, it’s the same tree) argument goes that people know best where to put their money and that open markets allow for capital to be allocated in the most efficient way for the greater good. Oh really?, I say. Oh really!?
Let’s take a few examples of why this is a wrongheaded approach to how to run a society:
– Much of the money made from huge incomes goes into second homes (or third, fourth, fifth etc) as this is one of the safest ways to guarantee a stable return on your cash and also ensures that wealth is kept within the family. The adverse knock-on impact of this is threefold – (1) the rich get richer and so the equality gap widens, (2) house prices increase (as more houses are held by fewer and fewer people) so people struggle to get onto a housing market that is the primary route for ensuring a decent pension and (3) the economy falters as money is being taken out of business and put into personal property portfolios. Low interest rates may well be boosting credit but it is simultaneously slicing capital out of the economy. A tax on second homes, or the more radical approach (as adopted in Sweden) of banning people from owning second homes domestically, is worth a look but neither Cameron nor Romney will bring this forward.
– Linked to the above, lower corporation taxes, as both Romney and Cameron favour, is the quickest way to take money out of the economy and into the micro-economy of the super rich. Would banks be paying out such huge bonuses if they had an extra few percent of tax to pay to the Government which, in turn, would help safeguard jobs in the public sector? One would hope not. There is a risk that small and medium sized businesses would have their lending cut to safeguard bonuses but that doesn’t mean that the three-pronged ideal of fair levels of Corporation Tax, minimal bonuses and high employment levels shouldn’t be the target.
– A recent example of what Mitt Romney spent his considerable income on is a $4m donation to the Mormon church. That is Mitt’s decision to make and I have nothing against Mormons of course, but the argument that people can direct capital better than Governments can for the betterment of society seems a little fanciful when this money, money that Mitt clearly doesn’t need, would arguably be better spent paying down the US debt or beefing up its economy. The same situation arises across the UK today from extra foreign holidays being unnecessarily taken or a new German car sitting in the garage. Disposable incomes feed the UK cash cow’s flabby underbelly that desperately needs milked.
– Train fares have increased 6%, rents have increased 4% (12% in London incidentally), food costs have increased 36%, public sector salaries have increased 0% and directors’ salaries have increased, wait for it, 50%. Where is the fairness there? Where is the progressive realignment of wealth? Will Cameron and Romney save us from this madness? Doubtful.
So, will Scotland be a buttress against this rather bleak regressive future? I am concerned that it won’t be. We’ve seen Alex Salmond slap down John Mason for merely suggesting that an independent Scotland could raise the top rate of the tax but the First Minister gleefully backed Sir Fred Goodwin on taking over ABN Amro. We’ve seen rail fares rise in Scotland just as much as they scandalously have in England & Wales, and we are seeing worrying signs over an SNP approach to fiscal control.
Alex Salmond is making control of Corporation Taxes his party’s prime argument as it pushes for the full range of financial levels for Scotland. That would be good news if Scotland intended to hold Corporation Tax rates in place, or raise them even, rather than copy or undercut the reduction in rates that George Osborne is currently presiding over.
The other argument that the SNP is keen to make is that Scotland can still build a fortune off the back of the oil that sits under the North Sea, despite clear evidence that the already drilled oiled reserves that sit above ground is more than enough to get us by while we wean ourselves off the black stuff. It’s a dilemma for Scotland, for sure – make a fortune off the drilling and burning of oil that the world doesn’t need and certainly can’t take or leave the oil where it is and be poorer for it financially but morally better off?
It would be a shame if the normally pleasingly principled SNP were to abandon reason and logic as the referendum drew nearer, if a rationale of ‘why shouldn’t we burn our oil if everyone else is’ will hold sway.
On top of this even, we have the much-boasted Council Tax freeze that still has another four years to go, despite the pennies dropping across Scotland that this is a regressive move as it is the richest who save the most. How is that driving Scotland forwards? As Kezia Dugdale MSP quite reasonably asks the Scottish Government, on behalf of the 80,000 unemployed 18-24 year olds, where are the jobs?
In his Hugo Young lecture, Salmond promised Scotland would be a ‘progressive beacon’ but I don’t see how that can be equated with an oil burning, low tax economy, particularly against a potential backdrop of UK-US relations revolving around Romney, Cameron and Osborne.
Perhaps the only way for Scotland to wriggle out of this depressing destiny is to vote Yes to independence and then swiftly vote a truly social democratic, progressive Labour/Green coalition into place?
#1 by Niall on February 1, 2012 - 3:22 pm
I guess you’re just being provocative but how on earth could a “progressive” coalition in any way involve the labour party?
#2 by Jeff on February 1, 2012 - 3:37 pm
Call me an optimist, but I think Labour’s on the right path to redemption. I don’t think there’s any need to analyse to death the single last line of the post though, I just thought I’d cheekily sneak in my personal preference for the colours of any post-referendum Scottish Government of an independent Scotland.
#3 by An Duine Gruamach on February 1, 2012 - 10:22 pm
I’d indeed like some red in the government of Scotland, but it sure as hell ain’t gonna come from Labour.
#4 by LJ on February 1, 2012 - 3:30 pm
I’m on a below average income and live in the east end of Glasgow in a band E Council tax flat for me the freeze is a godsend and your argument against it is hugely simplistic. Aside from that it was a pretty good article.
#5 by Patrick on February 1, 2012 - 4:01 pm
LJ, surely it would be of more help to you if the budget being allocated to pay for the Council Tax freeze all went to actually cut the bills of people on low incomes, instead of freezing everyone’s CT regardless of their wealth?
Mine is frozen, but I could afford to pay more. The First Minister’s is frozen. Fred Goodwin’s is frozen. Surely we should spend this money on those who need it, instead of handing it out to everyone?
#6 by Indy on February 1, 2012 - 4:45 pm
That was the whole argument behind a local income tax. But that argument was lost so we are where we are. Council tax will be frozen for the next 4 years because that is what people voted for. In the meantime politicians have a bit of space to agree a replacement.
#7 by GMcM on February 2, 2012 - 11:56 am
People voted for scrapping of student debt, first time homeowner grants, class sizes of 18 and more. They didn’t get those policies delivered did they?
#8 by Indy on February 1, 2012 - 4:43 pm
I don’t agree with raising the top rate of income tax either, though I think it should stay at 50 per cent.
But I just can’t really see how it can be right to take much more than half of someone’s income or earnings (yes I know it is only on the income that qualifies for the higher rate but it’s the same thing really.) The most you could increase it by would be by about 5 or6 per cent. What would be the point really? It would be more to the point surely to make sure the rich pay income tax.
In terms of governments getting their hands on more money to invest in things like railway infrastructure people need to think beyond taxation. I have often thought it would be a good idea to set up a kind of private state pension scheme where people could contribute just as they would to an occupational pension but the money would be used to invest in these kinds of major infrastructure projects. Obviously people would need to get a return on their investment and I suppose the issue in the past was that you would not get as big a return (and therefore as big a pension) as people expected to get from a private occupational pension. But now that a lot of private schemes are in trouble maybe this is the time to look at that kind of arrangement.
#9 by Jeff on February 1, 2012 - 4:49 pm
Gets my vote, a great idea.
I am reminded of the SNP’s plan to sells bonds to raise money for the Scottish Futures Trust, to build schools and hospitals. It was of course stymied by the powers that Holyrood holds, but it remains as good an idea as yours Indy.
#10 by R.G. Bargie on February 1, 2012 - 6:10 pm
“the First Minister gleefully backed Sir Fred Goodwin on taking over ABN Amro”
What garbage – he did the minimum any FM would have been expected to do, namely wish a large Scottish company good luck with a new venture and offer any assistance it could. It wasn’t his job to determine whether the venture was wise or not, and he didn’t.
#11 by Jeff on February 1, 2012 - 7:39 pm
I disagree. Political leaders shouldn’t blindly back business leaders in whatever they choose to do. Granted, Salmond won’t have had any access to the relevant information to know just how bad a deal this was but it’s not out of the question to hope for a First Minister with a more questioning, sceptical mind.
And even if it is “the minimum any FM would have been expected to do”, he still “gleefully backed Goodwin on taking over ABN AMRO” so I don’t know where the “garbage” comes into play…
#12 by Alec Macpherson on February 1, 2012 - 8:15 pm
Insofar as Salmond had no clout over any decisions made, yes he couldn’t have demanded much.
Then again, he wasn’t the UK-elected politician charged with balancing the various interests and wishes of the electorate or business interests in the country. He _chose_ to be an uncritical voice in Goodwin’s behaviour.
And his conduct when challenged ’bout this on Reporting Scotland shows he knows just how this could – and, imo, should – be used against him. A somewhat deflated admission of culpability followed by a rushed “regulatory power was in London”… well, yes (see above).
~alec
#13 by Allan on February 1, 2012 - 7:18 pm
“perhaps we should get used to seeing Mitt’s face in the papers, despite “having second place stamped through him like a stick of rockâ€.”
Obviously I’m in the minority then that thinks that Mitt at least has second place stamped through him. The other candidates must have “Lucky to even get second” through them – considering how barking they all are.
On the Corporation tax issue, hasn’t Salmond expressed a preference for lower Corporation Tax rates in his rebbutal to Michelle Mone – with 10% rates being the figuer mooted? Salmond either must have a crystal ball, or must be under the assumption that the SNP would win the first post Independence General Election.
BTW good post Jeff.
#14 by Barbarian on February 1, 2012 - 8:01 pm
Type your comment here
There is a genuine document, signed by Alex, freely available. He was not giving “minimal support”.
Jeff, as to rail fares, they can go up by an additional 1% in Scotland. That fact isn’t readily publicised by the Transport Minister, is it?
#15 by Doug Daniel on February 1, 2012 - 8:56 pm
Here’s the thing about corporation tax. We all assume that tax cut = right-wing, tax cut to business = ultra right-wing, and I must admit, a small part of me feels like it’s dying inside every time I argue for the SNP’s corporation tax plan. But it’s part of the philosophy of the Nordic model, which everyone agrees is the correct answer to the question “what’s the best model of democracy in the world?”. Granted, they’re not as low as Ireland, but they’re certainly undercutting their larger neighbours like Germany.
The difference between the Nordic model and the neo-liberal model of the US and the UK is it really is a means to an end – fostering a rich economy, that then allows for extremely progressive public spending programmes.
Plus they have top-rate taxes of around 60%. But it doesn’t put people off, because they’re business-friendly. Now, it may sound like the SNP want the “best” of both worlds, but as Allan has pointed out, we don’t know that the SNP will be the party setting the tax rates. We will, however, be able to make that choice for ourselves, rather than waiting to see which government England votes to impose on us.
But regardless, Indy makes a very important point: the main thing is we make sure we have a tax system where payment isn’t optional. Just how much money is the UK government actually saving with these “reforms”, in comparison to how much taxes we’ve been cheated out of by companies, through means legal and illegal? Who knows, a 10% corporation tax rate that was properly enforced might actually lead to more income than the UK’s current situation…
#16 by Ken on February 2, 2012 - 10:53 am
“Granted, they’re not as low as Ireland, but they’re certainly undercutting their larger neighbours like Germany.”
Yes, but wouldn’t Scotland need to undercut Ireland’s rate to make it work? The whole point of the Irish having a low rate is that it undercuts the UK and is therefore the main English language gateway for international business into Europe (with a large well educated/third level workforce with a strong work ethic). To make it viable, an independent Scotland will have to have a rate that undercuts the Irish, not anyone else.
“But it’s part of the philosophy of the Nordic model ”
True in some cases, but just to be aware that the Irish rate is certainly not based on the Nordic model, but very much so on a neo-liberal/US model and logic.
#17 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 11:42 am
I don’t think it would, and this is why the “race to the bottom” that is so often used to criticise the idea of lowering corporation tax only works if you think businesses decide where to base their operations solely on the rate of corporation tax they’ll pay. If it was the case, then why do any companies base their operations in Scotland now, with Ireland just across the water? It’s a little bit of sugar to tempt businesses, but it’s not the be all and end all.
In a nutshell: Ireland shares a border with the UK; Scotland will share a border with the UK; Scotland and Ireland do not share a border.
#18 by GMcM on February 2, 2012 - 12:03 pm
Doug correct me if I’m misunderstanding your point. You said that companies don’t move HQs based on corporation tax, now if that’s the case what’s the point in lowering it if it doesn’t attract new business to the country?
You can;t on one hand say the ‘race to the bottom’ argument only works if you believe companies move because of corporation tax levels (thereby denying that is the case) and then say that you want to lower the tax to do precisely that.
Would it therefore not be better to invest the money wasted on this tax cut to increase the skills of the workforce?
#19 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 2:15 pm
I’m not saying it doesn’t attract new business, I’m saying it’s merely one of several factors, and therefore it’s overly simplistic to assume that lowering it is just going to trigger a battle of who can undercut the most. There obviously comes a point where the benefit is lost, which would stop a race to the bottom actually reaching the bottom.
#20 by Ken on February 2, 2012 - 2:09 pm
Taking into account GMcM’s comment below, I’ll address something else.
“If it was the case, then why do any companies base their operations in Scotland now, with Ireland just across the water?”
Because different companies go to different countries for different reasons obviously. The Irish model was based not on domestic business but on attracting foreign multinationals into the country. Ireland continues to focus on the high tech sector primarily – and the closures of many multinational pharma bases, and manufacturing companies showed they will go where they stand to save money (i.e East). The companies benefiting from such a low corp tax rate in Ireland are those like Google (European HQ), Facebook (European HQ – and about to double it’s size in Dublin), LinkedIn (European HQ), eBay (European HQ), and even Zynga (European HQ) to name a few.
If Scotland is going to have low corporation tax, you have to ask for what sector and why? Is it to keep / attract domestic (Scottish/UK) businesses post independence or to attract in foreign business? And importantly, what type of business? Because having such a low corp tax rate is one (but only one) of the key reasons those types of companies are in Ireland – and currently, Scotland doesn’t offer anything to beat those reasons.
#21 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 12:10 pm
I think the aim is twofold. Firstly to give Scotland some means to compete with the magnetic pull of London and the south east in terms of people looking at where to locate their business and, secondly, to keep more home-grown businesses here in Scotland.
#22 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 2:16 pm
I wonder if the second point is actually the main reason. I remember Jim Mather speaking about companies he’d been a part of moving to London, and I think that’s why he backed the idea of Scotland having a lower rate than the UK.
#23 by Edulis on February 2, 2012 - 12:11 am
The Scottish Government is deliberately populist for good reason. They don’t want to frighten the horses before the Referendum and I support them in that because above all else we need to shed the Westminster link. That is the only way we will be able to even consider the Nordic model.
I wholeheartedly agree with you on the question of second homes. It is iniquitous that home owning has become a business in UK. Such contradictions of the Tory/LibDEm/Labour parties in agreeing the issue of benefit caps shows the hypocracy afoot. Bash the initial recipients, the tenants and not the ultimate recipients, the landlords – a complete failure of imagination. Contrast that with the news that the CEO of the Student Loan Company is allowed a tax efficient salary paid to his company rather then pay an additional £40k through income tax and NI.
#24 by Indy on February 2, 2012 - 8:09 am
In one sense the SNP Government has slightly undermined its own argument on corporation tax because Scotland under the SNP is seeing the highest level of investment in the UK outside of London & the southeast. So clearly it is possible to increase investment just by having a government which is very proactive about pushing for it and has a strategy to back that up. But on the other hand I guess they would argue that they could do even more if they were able to use corporation tax rates as an additional lever in that strategy. But i don’t feel myself that it is such a key argument any more. To me it was always a kind of proxy argument, a shorthand way of saying nobody owes Scotland a living, we need to go out there and do everything we can to attract and keep investment and secure jobs. I think that argument is pretty much accepted now.
#25 by dcomerf on February 2, 2012 - 11:00 am
Personally I’d abolish corporation tax entirely – its existence adds to the legal myth that ‘corporations are people’. Profits made by companies should not be taxed, but distributions of profits (dividends or share buy-backs) to people should be. No taxation without representation – and we certainly don’t want to give corporations representation!
This way management would have an incentive to invest in their companies as retained earnings would essentially be tax free. Dividend income should be taxed entirely at the higher rate with no tax free entitlement (i.e. lower earnings limit, and lower rate tax bands, are tax benefits that should only apply to wage income).
#26 by Doug Daniel on February 2, 2012 - 11:50 am
I think this is certainly an idea that is worth looking into. I believe the Nordic model is based on the idea that lower corporation tax allows overall wages to increase, which is how you then get more money through income tax. The sort of approach you’re advocating sounds like it would make it much easier to close various legal loopholes that allow top earners to end up paying ridiculously low amounts of tax. Maybe even bring in a completely flat tax, so instead of increasing tax take by earning level, you have various levels of tax credits etc. But i have no idea how any of that really works, to be fair, so I’m just jabbering.
And I certainly like the idea of getting rid of this idea that corporations have the same rights as people. If anyone is not entirely sure about why this is such a dreadful situation, I recommend watching the documentary film The Corporation – an eye-opener if ever there was one.
#27 by Aldos Rendos on February 2, 2012 - 11:53 am
Pretty confident Obama will win the election, he is ahead in the polls and with the bookies albeit narrowly, once his campaign kicks into full gear I expect him to open up a solid lead. Apart from that, nice post!
#28 by Richard on February 2, 2012 - 1:48 pm
Salmond has already admitted that he got it wrong about Fred. Can you really imagine either Cameron or Romney having the cojones to admit they made a mistake?
#29 by holyroodpatter on February 2, 2012 - 10:16 pm
You forget that allegedly progressive alliance was touted by many pre SP11, and I saw little from either party to suggest a founding of a socially democratic union.
as for Goodwin, you have to look very far to find a mainstream politician who wasnt advocating less regulation, the issue for everyone is that our economy remains pegged to market forces.
#30 by James on February 2, 2012 - 11:11 pm
Greens were certainly both mainstream and advocating tougher regulation precisely so our economy could be less pegged to market forces.