The Asch conformity experiments of the 1950s were a series of studies that demonstrated the power of conformity in groups.
The fascinating details can be read here but the summary is that, in group situations and despite a contrary clear correct answer, individuals are disposed to providing an incorrect answer against their better judgement if they are conforming with a clear majority view.
From Wikipedia:
Solomon Asch hypothesized that the majority of people would not conform to something obviously wrong; however, when surrounded by individuals all voicing an incorrect answer, participants provided incorrect responses on a high proportion of the questions (32%). Seventy-five percent of the participants gave an incorrect answer to at least one question.
The famous experiment proved that people are more likely to opt for something that they don’t necessarily believe in if a number of people before them, even if they are strangers, opt for that same choice.
This may well be a hint at the battle ahead right up to Autumn 2014.
For Nationalists, the challenge is to persuade Scots to conform to the notion that Scotland as an independent country is merely conforming with a world view of where our constitutional borders should be drawn. It is tantamount to asking the following: ‘Complete the sequence: Sweden, Norway, Ireland, Denmark, Finland,… That’s right. Sc-… Scot-… You can say it to us, everyone else has.’
On the unionist side, the rat-a-tat-tat of conformity is just as unrelenting: ‘Stronger together, weaker apart. Too small, too stupid. Stronger together, weaker apart. To small, too stupid. Stronger together, weaker apart… Say it back to us, come on…’
The above is precisely why I hope that every Scot who is eligible to vote in this referendum takes a quiet moment to themselves, away from the bluster, the blogs and the b*llocks, has a conversation with themselves deciding what it is that they want from their country going forwards and, crucially, that they stick to that decision come what may right up to voting day.
As far as I am aware, every meaningful poll on Scottish independence has shown lower than 50% support in favour of a Yes vote. However, mindful of the Asch experiments, there is a strong argument that these polls unfairly increase the likelihood of the next poll delivering the same result, irrespective of what people may really think on the inside.
There was a time, not so long ago, that to admit that one voted for the SNP was akin to having a stain on your character. You were a narrow-minded, caber-tossing, bagpipe-playing isolationist if you voted SNP and you weren’t allowed to forget it. The SNP has of course largely managed to cast off that reputation when it comes to elections to Holyrood but to what extent does it still exist within Scotland when it comes to the independence question?
When Lord Ashcroft is concerned that there is bias in the referendum process then he uses his money and privilege to publicly highlight this with a useful poll. However, a not dissimilar bias, and a potentially more significant one, exists the other way but there is no poll that will quantify, let alone qualify, the impact of the press, the main political parties and the business leaders with vested interests lining up to instruct the public to conform to their particular view.
Asch has proved that meek conformity will be a factor in this referendum, at least to some degree. We should ignore this at our peril.
#1 by Doug Daniel on February 7, 2012 - 12:02 pm
I’m not sure if it was the Asch experiments or not, but when I did a Psychology course at university to make up credits (as Computing Science only ran one course in each semester), we were told of experiments where ten people in a room would be asked a question one after the other. Nine of the people were plants, and the test subject was placed near the end, so that by the time it got to them, most of the other people (or all, even) had given the blatantly incorrect answer. The test showed that people will give the wrong answer, even when they know fine that it’s wrong, because no one wants to be the odd one out (their inherent reasoning being, as a Chinese proverb puts it, “if you stand up like a nail, then you will be knocked down” – points to whoever can say which song I took that from without googling it.)
You’re quite correct, Jeff. It’s why most people’s outlook and opinions are shaped by those around them, unless you’re of particularly strong mind (or just stubborn). My friend gleefully told me about all these business men he was talking to at the rugby at the weekend, and how they’re all against independence. “Exclusive: bunch of people in awkward social setting agree on unified stance on volatile subject”, was exactly the thinking going through my head.
No one wants to be a pariah. Hence why the Tories tend to get more votes in elections than polls suggest, because why would anyone want to admit to being a Tory in public? Much better to do it in the confines of a secret ballot, and therein lies the futility of polls: you can never be truly sure that what people say in a poll matches how they will act in an actual vote.
One thing the polling does do, however, is suggest that the upward trend in favour of independence is either turning more people onto the idea, or just simply making them feel more free to admit to it. If we can get the press to be stop allowing unionists free reign to make baseless, unquantifiable statements like those you mention, then the sky is the limit. But yes, the first – and biggest – hurdle to independence is getting people to stop believing that which is not true and getting them to truly question those ideas.
#2 by Indy on February 7, 2012 - 1:23 pm
This exists to a certain extent in every election. It’s not simply about conforming – I think you also get a fairly significant proportion of voters who will back whoever they think is going to win. They just like to feel they are backing the winner. It’s why people place so much emphasis on momentum in politics. Who has it, who hasn’t.
#3 by Jeff on February 7, 2012 - 1:29 pm
I did consider, and do agree, that this is a phenomenon at every election; I just think it’ll be significantly more pronounced in the referendum given the Yes/No nature of the contest and the more febrile atmosphere that the once in a generation vote like this brings.
I guess one thing to think about is will it be like polling Tories where they don’t let on who they’re voting for (meaning Tories are often underpolled) or will any conformity, the obedience, continue right up to and including the vote itself.
#4 by Indy on February 7, 2012 - 2:03 pm
Yes. clearly people who vote Tory but don’t let on actually know their own minds quite well – they are just ashamed to admit it. A bigger issue during the referendum will be the people who really don’t know what they want. Although it’s probably going to be a very polarised choice – yes/no – it’s also quite a finely balanced thing. I suspect there may be a substantial number of people who won’t finally decide till quite late on and may be most influenced by the conformity issue.
#5 by Iain Menzies on February 7, 2012 - 5:59 pm
are they ashamed to admit to being tories, or is it that they just cant be arsed with the hassle of dealing with the oftentimes out right bigotry that they get in response to holding to their own beliefs….
#6 by Indy on February 8, 2012 - 8:03 am
Polling organisations don’t tend to employ people who say oh you swine sir if someone says they are going to vote Tory! In reality it’s as neutral a situation as could be arranged. It’s just that the shame is deep lol.
#7 by rullko on February 8, 2012 - 11:25 am
From pollsters?
#8 by commenter on February 7, 2012 - 1:55 pm
I think you also get a fairly significant proportion of voters who will back whoever they think is going to win. They just like to feel they are backing the winner
Additionally, these voters are using popularity as social proof, i.e. the popularity makes them think ‘this must be the right choice, millions of other people can’t be wrong’. Back to Asch.
#9 by mav on February 7, 2012 - 11:39 pm
Does your article not neatly demonstrate why its a loaded question?
‘Do you agree…’
come on, agree with us, be one of the Asche crowd.
And wasn’t the ash cloud last year?
#10 by James Morton on February 7, 2012 - 11:42 pm
The problem for the Tories is that that their vote share is spread far too thinly. By looking at the percentage numbers alone and total votes cast in the last general election (400k or so) they should have had more MPs. But political geography plays a part here. They simply do not dominate in any area in Scotland. There are no Tory safe seats or marginals. They may have 17% of the vote but it is spread paper thin across the country – a few thousand here, a few hundred there – just not in enough numbers to make it FBTP. When Ruth Davidson contested Glasgow North-East she polled no more than 5.4% – actual votes counted 1569, labour had 20100 votes cast. What little they do gain is enough to let them gain MSP seats via the list system, in fact its the only reason they have a voice here at all. Ruth Davidson is a list candidate as was Annabel Goldie, who polled third place, so you can see the issue quite clearly.
The ascher experiments were interesting but it cuts both ways – many people won’t admit to voting Tory, but far more will never actually vote for them at all. Simple fact is that they have been in decline since the 60s and took a nose dive in 87 and got a bloody good drubbing in 97. You could say they have been victims of the Ascher conformity experiment themselves – labelled as beyond the pale, the party who imposed unpopular taxes, and were anti-Scottish. The truth doesn’t matter, the myth is set, the Tories looked like plausible villains and have continued to play the role ever since. In this version of the ascher experiment write large and played out at every election since the Thatcher/Major years has insured that they remain unelectable, with the electorate conforming to the myths that have grown up around them. yet, every time the Tories try to break out of this and counter the myths they unintentionally reinforce the very myths they are trying to remove.
The way to overcome the ascher effect is to concentrate on core facts to refute the myths, not to concentrate on the myths. That’s the challenge for the SNP. The Tories have to reinforce this negative effect, but to do so effectively they would have to successfully remove the myths that surround them, otherwise their rat-a-tat-tat arguments may make their own image a whole lot worse.
Labours dilemma is to navigate their way around these pitfalls and not be contaminated by association with the conservatives, but also not accidently reinforce the SNP position.
At least – that’s what I think if these experiments can be applied here. It could also be that the Tories really are team evil, labour is team stupid, and the SNP fight on the side of the angels.
Depends on your point of view I guess :o)
#11 by Indy on February 8, 2012 - 8:08 am
I would answer that but I need to go away tp put a wee spot of WD40 on my wings.
#12 by scottish_skier on February 11, 2012 - 8:43 pm
The problem with the Tories started when the ‘Independent’ Scottish Unionists merged with them in the 60’s, resulting in no Scottish Tory party. Under Thatcher in particular, the Tories became the ‘English [sic British] Civic National Party’ with their focus on the SE/Home counties and neglect of everywhere else. That is how they are viewed in Scotland because that is exactly what they are; the English National Party. Why would Scots vote for the ENP when they can vote for the SNP.
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