Another guest today from Andrew Graeme Smith, a London-based Scot who works in the PR industry, and who previously wrote for us about the No campaign. He grew up in Edinburgh and studied at Dundee, and you can read his blog at www.blackberrybanter.
Since taking to Twitter, Rupert Murdoch has been good at causing a stir, but with 185,000 followers (at time of writing) and a whole host of opinions on issues such as the electoral viability of Rick Santorum (who he likes) and the welfare state (which he doesn’t) he is always going to be an interesting Tweeter. However, of his many rants, the ones that have attracted the most attention this week have been the ones he’s made about Scotland, in which he sang the praises of Alex Salmond, berated nuclear weapons and the British empire and seemed to endorse Scottish independence: all part of a good day’s work for the Dirty Digger.
While the support of Murdoch does not necessarily mean the support of his newspapers it does make it a lot more likely that the Scottish Sun and its new Sunday sister paper will soon fall into line. What will be the impact if they do? What does it mean for the tone of the referendum?
The consensus of most people I know is that it won’t make a blind bit of difference, and I’m sure that you’re all well versed on the numerous arguments for why the influence of newspapers is often overstated, however I’m not so convinced. While backing Scottish independence is not a new position for the Sun (who supported it in 1992) and nor is their support for the SNP (who they backed in 1992 and 2011), the difference this time is that this time their own backs and those of their industry are against the wall, and the referendum itself is still 2 and a half years away.
The first point to make is that, regardless of its depleted influence, the Sun still sells 314,000 copies a day in Scotland, which makes it by far the largest selling daily newspaper in the country. The second point is that when the Sun make a political statement they are usually less than subtle (for example their 2007 opposition to the SNP and their 2011 support). Should the paper get behind Murdoch’s new policy then it could be an effective mouthpiece for the nationalists to address an audience who have traditionally backed Labour in Scotland. The other positive for the SNP is that if they can maintain the support of the Sun then they can expect a far easier ride from one of the most vicious tabloids in the country, and meanwhile Salmond’s opponents will be subjected to more of the humiliation that has been poured onto Iain Gray and Gordon Brown in the past.
The reason why the change is significant is not only because of what it may spell for the campaigns, but also because of the reasoning behind it. While the usual suspects tend to see the Sun’s support for the SNP as a way of beating the Labour Party, there is undoubtedly far more to it. Ultimately, The Sun is a business and during a time of declining newspaper sales and their own inner turmoil it is thoroughly unlikely that the move would be purely to spite the Labour Party (which probably does play a small part when we consider Miliband’s reaction to the Sunday Sun’s launch and how it differed with that of Salmond).
It is also unlikely that should The Sun back independence then they will do it purely because Murdoch does, there has to be a business case for it too (otherwise the Scottish Sun would have backed Cameron in 2010). Rather more likely is because The Sun needs to run at a profit and will make the decision along commercial lines. The equation is very simple. If News International believes that The Sun will sell more copies by supporting independence then that is what they will do. This is nothing new: research from MORI in 2009 confirmed that The Sun has a tendency to follow its readers and if they didn’t then they probably wouldn’t be the biggest selling newspaper in the country. This is significant in itself because it implies that there is already a business case for tabloids to be thinking about backing the YES campaign.
In terms of the other papers, I would anticipate that the Daily Record will probably strengthen its unionist voice in order to differentiate itself from the newly nationalist Sun. I would expect the broadsheets to be fairly agnostic with a slight tendency towards a no vote from the more conservative among them (aside from The Times who have given Salmond their Politician of the Year award and will probably show a more strained support for a YES vote). I would expect the Daily Star to stay out of it and the Mail and Express to stick to doing what they do best (which is preaching to their respective choirs) while the soon to be reprinted Daily Sport will be lucky if they even mention that a referendum is happening…
Finally, Murdoch’s words themselves are important, “Let Scotland go and compete. Everyone would win.†It is hard to read this without thinking about Murdoch’s immediate business interests. I suspect that his idea of a competitive Scotland is one that is cutting corporation tax, business rates and taxes for the wealthy. Quite how the Digger squares this neoliberal circle with a Scotland that is increasingly moving in a traditionally social-democratic direction I don’t know. Regardless of his own political ideologies, Murdoch has caused quite a stir, and probably not for the last time.
#1 by James on February 23, 2012 - 9:45 am
Economically, Murdoch would get what he wants from Salmond. Remember the Sun’s endorsement:
“And, crucially, they’re tackling the economic crisis head-on by cutting public spending faster than anywhere else in the UK.”
#2 by Fergus on February 23, 2012 - 8:49 pm
don’t believe what you read in the paper
#3 by Steve on February 24, 2012 - 1:54 pm
I think it’s OK to believe what you read when it happens to be true, and in this case it is.
#4 by Indy on February 23, 2012 - 12:14 pm
Scotland needs to compete no matter what, so that’s kind of a non-sequiter.
But interestingly I haved etected a softening of the Daily Record’s stance rather than a hardening – see for example yesterday’s leader:
“THE suggestion that an independent Scotland would need passport controls at its border with England is kind of laughable.
But that Tory Europe minister David Lidington should rake up the old scare story that Scotland would find itself on the wrong side of a European Union agreement on the freedom of movement is ridiculous.
The claim doesn’t stand up to much scrutiny and, to be honest, it is the least of Scotland’s worries as it faces up to a momentous decision.”
Yes – the Daily Record! Wonders will never cease.
#5 by Iain Menzies on February 23, 2012 - 1:23 pm
be honest now, is that the record being pro independence, or anti tory?
#6 by Angus McLellan on February 23, 2012 - 5:01 pm
A reasonable question for anoraks, but only for anoraks I think. If it looks like a duck – or a change in the message – and walks like one and quacks like one most folks are unlikely to dig any deeper.
#7 by Allan on February 23, 2012 - 8:34 pm
“My enemy’s enemy is my friend”
Simples.
#8 by Doug Daniel on February 23, 2012 - 1:36 pm
It’s certainly an interesting development. Regardless of his reasons for doing it (I’ve seen arguments that it’s more to do with his current annoyance at the British state, rather than tax incentives, but above all we all know the Sun likes to be seen backing the winner), it would certainly be helpful if independence manages to win the backing of the Murdoch press. I despise the man and all he stands for, but I’m not going to complain if his papers are not adding to the noise of scaremongering and disinformation that abounds. I wouldn’t go as far as to say “any enemy of the union is a friend of mine”, but similarly I’m not about to look a gift horse in the mouth.
What I’m going to find interesting is seeing if my Sun-reading friend’s views on independence start to change. Currently, he parrots whatever scare story nonsense he’s most recently read or heard in the media and demands that I disprove it; so if I suddenly see a softening of attitude towards independence, I’ll have an idea why (although he’s also a Tory voter, so I’m not holding my breath).
The BBC remains the biggest thorn in the side of independence, though…
#9 by BaffieBox on February 23, 2012 - 3:25 pm
The subtle and important point in all of this is that tabloids align with popular opinion. They like to portray that they lead the public, but really, they follow public opinion for no other reason than it doesnt make business sense to take an opposite line to the majority of their readers.
As such, ignore what official polls tell you – the tabloids positioning themselves for independence or even being neutral, tells you everything you need to know: at the very worst, the referendum is too close to call; and if any start supporting independence, it wont be change public opinion – public opinion will already be favouring independence.
#10 by Dubbieside on February 23, 2012 - 4:50 pm
Agree 100% with this Baffie.
If anything it further reinforces the message, and provides a counter to the various scare storys of the unionists. Throw in Sky TV and we could see a far more balanced reporting than we have had to date.
Re the Daily Record, I am not sure if it is being pro independence, but it is maybe beginning to realise that a lot of Scots, even in Glasgow, now support the SNP and to continue to alienate them could lead to further falls in circulation.
The Record will always be anti tory, though how it differentiates between Labour and the Torys, when we have just had 32 Scottish Labour MPs voting to support further privatisation in the NHS in England, it is hard to imagine.
#11 by Nikostratos on February 23, 2012 - 6:43 pm
Shame about his employees went and broke all them laws multiple violated peoples privacy hacked anything that moved bribed old Bill and god knows what else
Still apart from all that he is a very nice man
#12 by Barbarian on February 23, 2012 - 7:25 pm
There are a few reasons that Murdoch / Sun supports the SNP – and not a single one will be about independence in the way that nationalists support this.
His ertswhile son, James, delivered a speech where the bottom line was that the BBC should be disbanded and replaced by a private broadcaster – ie News International.
Added to the ongoing investigation into News International, Murdoch is no longer friends with Westminster. Who better to support that the SNP, who are not exactly bosum buddies with the BBC either.
If Scotland goes independent, I’ll bet the SNP will be out for revenge and you can kiss goodbye to the BBC. A state broadcaster will remain, but no doubt Alex will be after some “professional advice”. Guess where from.
Murdoch is only interested in profit. The SNP, bereft of friendly media, have jumped at the chance to get some hard hitting headlines.
The ongoing inquiry could reveal more and more unsavoury details about the workings of the press. The SNP could suddenly find themselves associated with the actions. They have already said that these events happened prior to the link with the SNP – as if the media has suddenly turned lily white.
Alex has already discovered how ruthless tycoons can be. All you need to do is look at Trump. Murdoch is just as likely to turn on him as well. However, the SNP is now stuck with the Sun, since trying to distance themselves could backfire.
I don’t trust News International and I don’t trust Murdoch. The SNP have the means – ie money – to promote themselves without the need to tie up to an organisation that is being exposed as more and more allegations surface.
#13 by Allan on February 23, 2012 - 8:55 pm
I agree with Barbarian in that this has very little relevance to the Independence debate – Murdoch is positioning his papers into the position of promoting a low tax, low regulation Scotland, one his company can make a handsome profit from (particuraraly if he relocates from Wapping).
Of course one of the main reasons is his dissatisfaction with Westminster. He had to be convinced of the merits of backing Cameron by Rebekah Brooks – no doubt in response to pieces published in the S*n by Cameron & Hunt (in Summer 2009) promising a tighter reign on the BBC and the scrapping of OFCOM. Cameron’s failure to win an outright majority will have harmed his faith – though not as much as his performance during “Hackergate” in June/July last year. Despite appointing a “Cameroonee” in the shape of Toby Young as political columnist for the “S*n on Sunday”, i suspect Cameron is slightly damaged goods as far as the Digger is concerened.
He can’t back Milliband or Labour because a) their bridges have been well and truely burned thanks to Hackergate and b) Milliband has repositioned Labour to be slightly to the left of New Labour (though you would have thought that he had become a fully fledged Trot if you listened to Blairites and political commentators alike). While the Lib Dems have been the traditional punch bag for the S*n.
Why not back a party that has been pointed out earlier enjoyed the Diggers patronage in 1992 (when it was a blatant attempt to split the left of centre vote) and last year? Remember as well that there is a large right wing element in England sympathetic to Scotland becoming Independent, Guido Fawkes for example.
Still, if I was an SNP member, i’d still have a sense of forboding at this news. Salmond has taken the Murdoch shilling and we are still to hear of the price of Murdoch’s support.
#14 by Indy on February 23, 2012 - 10:59 pm
What nonsense. I think it’s pretty well established that Murdoch doesn’t like the British Establishment, therefore he probably finds it quite amusing to twitter support for Alex Salmond and the SNP.
But let’s be realistic here – how important is how Scotland votes to the Murdoch Empire? Um. Let’s think about that and the answer is – not very.
It’s a strange phenomenon that nationalists should be more realistic about this than unionists but there you go! Something tells me that Rupert Murdoch does not spend a great deal of his time worrying about Scotland!
If the Scottish Sun backs independence will that make a difference? To people like us – no. But it may make some difference in persuading some people to vote and that could be potentially quite significant.
There is an interesting issue here which may come to be quite important. Support for independence is highest among the working class but capturing middle class voters is what won the SNP our landslide. Because middle class people are more likely to vote. So there is a job to be done in a) getting everyone in poorer, more deprived areas onto the electoral register – because in many deprived areas the register is scandalously inadequate – and also getting them out to vote on the day. That’s not as easy as it may sound because many people in the “lower” socio-economic groups may never have voted before and could find it quite an intimidating experience.
If however the Sun can help to mobilise that group, encourage them to register and help provide them with the confidence to vote that will be an unmitigated Good Thing and we will all owe Mr Murdoch a wee debt of gratitude. Even the people who hate him.
It remains to be seen whether anything like that will happen of course but if it does I look forward to unionist denunciations of the SNP for teaming up with the Evil Empire and getting the underclass all excited. They are so much more manageable when they are apathetic after all.
#15 by Allan on February 25, 2012 - 12:00 am
So Salmond gave gifts (including Ryder Cup tickets) to the Digger just to get the proles onside. Tosh and utter balderdash!
Murdoch is not a huge fan of “The Brittish establishment” – that is very well documented. However, what better way to get back at those self same establishment figures than to back an Independent Scotland and to see it established as a low tax, low regulation economy (with a little prompting from the Digger himself) operating outwith the EU and on the doorstep of England. Concieviably he could move the printing operations up here and close Wapping citing tax reasons. Douglas Clark (below) asks what deal he could offer, well lowering business taxation would be a good starting point.
#16 by Dubbieside on February 23, 2012 - 11:16 pm
The unionist protestations about Murdoch are risible. Any of the partys would fight for News International endorsement.
Ed Miliband would give up one of his Balls for Murdochs endorsement.
Whether that would be Ed or Yvette is the only dispute.
#17 by James on February 24, 2012 - 10:59 am
As a Green I’d be 100% convinced we were on the wrong track if Rupert Murdoch backed us. He supports parties when they put business before people. Usually the Tories, briefly Labour when it looked like they’d deregulate the City and media ownership laws (how right he was) and now also the SNP.
#18 by Steve on February 24, 2012 - 1:55 pm
How did you feel about this? 😉
http://www.twodoctors.org/2011/01/greens-hornet-is-buzzing.html
#19 by Andrew graeme Smith on February 24, 2012 - 10:30 pm
In fairness to Ed, if you follow the link I put in the article he has been very critical of the relaunch of the Sun on Sunday. What has he done in the last year to actively court the Murdoch press?
#20 by douglas clark on February 24, 2012 - 12:59 am
If you are a newspaper, not a web site, then the economics of your marketplace matter to you. If you are losing circulation then you need to look at the readership you lost. If that amounts to the SNP minded, then you have to change.
Having said that, it seems that Murdoch operates on a level that means that Scottish Nationalism would only merit a couple of paragraphs in his conciousness, except for the prospect of making a point to Westminster.
It has been suggested that Alec Salmond has ‘done a deal’ with Murdoch over this support. I doubt that.
Let’s be honest here. What sort of deal could he offer? It seems unlikely that Murdoch would assume lower corporation tax was sufficient incentive to start publishing North of the Border. Unless Sky moves too to a lower tax regieme?
It looks to me like pique. Murdoch has been hurt by Westminster and is looking for an opportunity to hit back.
I would urge Alec Salmond to beware capitalists bearing gifts. Our enemies enemy is not, necessarily, our friend.
#21 by Barbarian on February 24, 2012 - 9:31 pm
Indy, you obviously do not understand how News International has been built up and operates. Go and research and especially Fox News.
Murdoch positions himself to give him the best advantage.
He does not give a toss about the SNP, as long as Scotland becomes independent. Once he is in there, he will be after favours. And I will bet they will be given, since he is perfectly capable of destroying those who he supports.
News International has met with the Scottish Government several times over recent past. The question that must be asked is why?
I don’t trust NI and I never will.
#22 by Indy on February 26, 2012 - 3:14 pm
OK Barbarian. Let’s accept your argument that Murdoch is more worried about a market of 5 million than a market of 50 million down south. Erm. Why?
#23 by Andrew graeme Smith on February 24, 2012 - 10:28 pm
According to the Indi (may have been the Guardian) the Scottish Sun is going to come out in favour of independence this Sunday
#24 by Allan on February 25, 2012 - 12:03 am
It appeared in the I today. Private Eye also reckoned that because of Murdoch’s tweet, his “relationship” with Cameron is over. The back of his hand indeed!
#25 by Indy on February 26, 2012 - 3:12 pm
Well it didn’t. So where does that leave things?
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