If my 2011 predictions are anything to go by then I should really be giving 2012 a miss. However, despite not living in my once-envisaged Iain Gray governed, AV wonderland, I shall limit myself to one prediction for 2012 and, over reaching further than an MSP discussing foreign affairs on Holyrood’s dime, for 2013.
First up, 2012.Â
With so much of the coming year’s Holyrood business already well known and positively anaemic, not to mention the UK’s focus so distinctly unScottish, it is difficult to know where to look to find something to predict around. One could suggest that Rennie, Lamont and Davidson will continue to fail to lay a glove on Salmond this year, that the SNP Government will continue to fall short of its climate change commitments, that the Edinburgh trams will run into more difficulties and that the Scottish people will remain stubbornly around the 30% pro-independence mark, but you wouldn’t get very high odds on any of those anyway.Â
What is marginally less likely, considerably more exciting and what would certainly drive a coach and horses through the modern history of Scottish Politics is the SNP taking control of Glasgow Council. And I predict that it will happen when May comes around.
Having Anas Sarwar and Johann Lamont in newly promoted positions will help Labour’s chances (and in that order of impact) but the SNP’s momentum, the well established Nicola Sturgeon and the irrepressible First Minister’s clout will see the Nats have the edge. Needless to say, if the contest is the SNP election machine vs Labour’s 2011 machine, then there will be only one winner.
In Glasgow particularly, the Health Minister Nicola Sturgeon may yet be the poster child for people paying more for their booze, in theory a damaging position to be in, but any such continued negativity from opposition parties will surely be more of a hindrance than a help after a 2011 that saw positivity being the name of the game.Â
No, it is surely time for Glaswegians to see that Glasgow isn’t working and hasn’t been working for some time now. Health, drugs and life expectancy remain awful in comparison to the rest of Scorland (and beyond) and you can only blame those that have been in charge for that, as voters finally shall. Even a change for a few years will breathe healthy air into the corridors of power at City Chambers, ensuring a healthy competition between rival parties drive up results for all.Â
And a traditionally Labour City that is governed by the SNP at council and national level hosting a successful Commonwealth Games mere months before an independence referendum could add up to a crucial extra 3% or 4% in favour of independence, based on population size and current polls. That is purposefully intended to be arguable but it’d certainly be a far cry from the days when Stephen Purcell was the hottest prospect in Scottish Politics.Â
So onwards and upwards for Team SNP then? Well, yes, for a year or so anyway. My 2013 prediction revolves around the belief that the SNP are peaking too early and will be the victims of tall poppy syndrome and target practice before too long. Tony Blair may have put it off for longer than most but it is inevitable for all administrations and their leaders. And let’s face it, with record-breaking poll results, poppies don’t come much taller and targets don’t come much wider than the SNP and Salmond right now.Â
It was, and remains, fun to be on the SNP bandwagon, to have a Cabinet of many talents that hold newer, fresher ideas than the opposition. But the public’s expectations from an incumbent Government only ever rise and that fickle public will soon enough tire of the Salmond chuckle and the SNP chutzpah. It will soon be more the done thing to sully the SNP than to support it, especially after the party runs out of new things to run, with the trophy of Glasgow Council safely on its mantelpiece.
Will that change in fortunes come before the all-important referendum? I believe so unless there is a snap plebiscite in the next 18 months.Â
But that’s 2013 and this is 2012. Here’s to a great year and another round of elections, whoever the winners are.Â
#1 by Barbarian on January 2, 2012 - 7:14 pm
Fair predictions.
I think that while the SNP may take Glasgow, they will lose seats in Edinburgh due to the trams. I know Edinburgh is a strange place (for several reasons!!) but I think the SNP are going to get a kicking there.
it’s too early to predict how the Referendum may be affected though. The SNP have a number of potentially serious issues to contend with, plus if unemployment rises they will shoulder the blame, simply because they are in government.
#2 by FormerChampagneSocialist on January 3, 2012 - 8:14 am
As an Edinburgh resident, I don’t think many, if any, people blame the trams on the SNP. Even the dogs in the street know that the trams are a Labour and LibDem project, backed by the Tories in the Parliament against the wishes of the SNP and consistently opposed by the SNP.
Personally, I think the Nats have a different problem in
Edinburgh – Steve Cardownie.
#3 by scottish_skier on January 2, 2012 - 11:04 pm
30% for independence? Maybe if Guaranteed Devo max/FFA was on the ballot..
I trust you do not follow polls in great detail? The last Y/N by TNS-BMRB had the ‘Yes’ (39%) ahead of the ‘No’ (38%), consistent with a recent decline in the ‘No’:
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/press-release-independence-poll-aug-11_1315215048.pdf
But one example. Check out the SSAS results – either no economic benefit (stay the same) or a modest one and it’s Yes to independence.
For straight Y/N (which is what we are facing), the situation is that the ‘No’ vote has historically been in minority compared to the Yes + Want but unsure (for running averages of ICM, TNS & MORI back to 1998). The ‘No’ vote has only been just above 50% for only around 5 months out of the last 14 years; just around the 2007 SNP win in fact. Ergo the majority of Scots ‘want/wish’ independence, it’s just there are some worried about what it would mean…
To be clear, for a straight Y/N poll:
Yes = Want independence and not hesitating about voting for it
Unsure = Want/would like independence but hesitating about voting for it as unsure it is a good idea economically etc (I’ve never met anyone unsure about ‘not wanting’ something, only unsure about ‘wanting’ something. If you don’t want something, you say ‘no’)
No Type 1 = Want/would like independence but think it is not a good idea economically etc at present so will likely vote No
No Type 2 = Do not want independence and will definitely vote no
Yes, Unsure and No type 1 = ~70% of the Scots population, i.e. those that support Full Fiscal Autonomy / Devo Maxx (as consistently shown in polls). On the day, the majority of ‘unsure’ will vote ‘yes’ along with some of ‘No’ Type 1’s. A minority of the ‘unsures’ will panic and vote ‘no’.
The result will be ~62.5% Yes, just as it was for Y-Y in 1997.
Independence referenda invariably get a ‘yes’ vote because the ‘unsures’ (who want independence but are nervous about consequences) vote with their heart and say ‘Yes’. The only exception I am aware of is Quebec. However, ahead of the last referendum polls were only showing 30% Yes. On the day, this shot up to just shy of 50% as most of the ‘unsures’ said ‘yes’. At the moment, the ‘Yes’ vote in Scotland is now conservatively 45-50% in running averages (approaching 1998 > 50% levels) with the ‘unsures’ 15%. Ergo, there’s your 60% majority.
The current constitutional situation is 60 years old (using the post war consensus as the last peak of unionism):
1979 = Small majority Yes to home rule (overruled)
1997 = Strong majority Yes to home rule
1999 = Scottish parliament reconvened
2007 = Independence party becomes minority government
2001 = Independence party becomes majority government
Why would a movement 60 years old just fizzle out? this is not out of nowhere:
http://rueclementmarot.blogspot.com/p/annexation.html
Folk need to extract heads from sand here. Pragmatism is needed. This is not about who wins the next election – things are far beyond that.
#4 by Scottish republic on January 2, 2012 - 11:12 pm
“””””””””””It was, and remains, fun to be on the SNP bandwagon, to have a Cabinet of many talents that hold newer, fresher ideas than the opposition. But the public’s expectations from an incumbent Government only ever rise and that fickle public will soon enough tire of the Salmond chuckle and the SNP chutzpah. It will soon be more the done thing to sully the SNP than to support it, especially after the party runs out of new things to run, with the trophy of Glasgow Council safely on its mantelpiece.””””””””””””
Don’t agree – people want results, if they get them then they’ll lend their support to the relatively left-wing SNP; if they don’t then they’ll lend their support to the relatively right-wing Labour.
As far as tiring of Salmond – it’s only people like us that really spend our time studying one person that would tire – most people don’t think, consider, listen to or look at politicians till they have to vote.
It comes down to doing a good job or not.
It comes down ultimately to winning the argument for independence – £1,000,000,000,000 (12 ZEROS) is an interesting argument.
#5 by Jeff on January 3, 2012 - 12:25 am
Well, £1,000,000,000,000 isn’t an argument, it’s a number, though an interesting one given it has 12 zeroes and all.
I must admit I am missing its relevance though…
#6 by Angus McLellan on January 3, 2012 - 12:37 am
That looks rather like an an estimate of the value- the market value and not the tax yield – of oil & gas reserves in Scottish waters.
#7 by Thomas Widmann on January 2, 2012 - 11:49 pm
In 2007, the SNP put up 22 candidates in the 21 multi-member wards of Glasgow, and all 22 were elected. I’m not entirely sure how many candidates they’ve put up this time, but it’s a hugely important question (just as the number of candidates that are standing for Labour). Does anybody know the exact numbers?
#8 by Indy on January 3, 2012 - 8:40 am
They are putting up enough to win a majority. Don’t know the exact number but between 40 – 43 I think. Labour will put up a similar number. In some senses it could be quite a boring election – if the SNP put up 2 candidates and Labour put up 2 candidates in a 4 member ward they are probably all likely to get elected. So it may come down to the 4 member wards where one or other of them puts up 3 rather than 2 and the 3 member wards where one or other of them puts up 2 rather than 1. It will be a hard fight – and hard going for the other parties I think. In fact for me it really leads to a re-assessment of STV and PR in general. Not that I am against it – I’m not, I think it is the fairest system there is. But I also think that the idea that proportional representation can break up a very polarised two party system and is therefore good for smaller parties is not necessarily true. I think for the smaller parties to win seats in Glasgow they will have to run very clever voter management strategies otherwise the may risk being squeezed out.
Looking at things more generally I think there is a chance that the SNP won’t do as well as expected in the local government elections nationally simply because the electorate may collectively decide that, having given the SNP such an overwhelming mandate in the Scottish Parliament, they are going to balance that by giving them rather less of a mandate at local government level so there will be mainly councils with no overall control. That may not happen, it’s just a hunch, we will need to wait and see.
#9 by Daniel J on January 3, 2012 - 7:07 pm
I really do wonder who will be left besides the SNP & Labour after May. Realistically the Greens will lose 2-3 that were won thanks to SNP under-nomination, the Lib Dems could lose everything and Meikle is hardly secure..
#10 by An Duine Gruamach on January 5, 2012 - 3:56 pm
It’ll be more than a little disappointing for electoral reform-minded folk like myself to see two different PR systems give effectively two party systems.
#11 by Angus McLellan on January 3, 2012 - 1:04 am
This story in the Herald back in September reported arguments over whether to have 40 or 50 SNP candidates – a compromise figure of 43 is mentioned. The only ward for which I could find details of candidates was Shettleston where two have been selected.
#12 by Bill Pickford on January 4, 2012 - 10:26 pm
I apologise for coming to this discussion rather late.
Regarding candidate numbers: In East Ayrshire the SNP are placing two candidates in each of the wards regardless whether it is a three or four councillor ward.
The reasoning is to win an absolute majority and the intent is to have two SNP councillors from each ward.
This would give a clear majority in the Council.
Now, it could be said that this is hubris by the SNP, thinking they can win so many seats but, given past elections, whose to say they’re wrong.
#13 by FormerChampagneSocialist on January 3, 2012 - 1:38 pm
With the election of Johann Lamont, Lab look increasingly like a Glasgow party rather than an all-Scotland party.
I reckon this will help them in Glasgow, and might even allow them to retain control of GCC, but throughout much of the rest of country people will listen to Lamont and think to themselves – ‘is this the best you’ve got?’
I really think they’ll struggle in Edinburgh. People have long memories, and the Labour/LibDem councils were truly awful. Eye-watering Council tax rises in exchange for worsening services and a succession of stupid/disastrous ventures – CERT (failed), housing stock transfer (failed), congestion charging (failed), Princes St Galleries (failed), String of Pearls (failed). I could go on…….and then there’s the Tram, the biggest shambles of all.
I won’t even bother mentioning the Libs, other than to say that they will be annihilated.
I think the SNP will take control of CEC.
#14 by Barbarian on January 3, 2012 - 11:42 pm
One issue with Council elections is that many local councillors are relected every time because of who they are, rather than what party they represent.
Glasgow might provide a shock with an SNP gain, but what happens in Edinburgh will be more interesting, down to the distribution of the votes in what is a four way split. The SNP made solid gains last time around, but I’m wondering if the tram issue will have an impact.
#15 by Dean MacKinnon-Thomson on January 4, 2012 - 3:26 pm
I could well envisage Labour getting a good kicking in Glasgow.
However, it would be wrong to think that it is a dead certainty. The Labour machine has a history of ‘getting out the vote’. And it should be realised that their problems in the last Holyrood slaughtering wasn’t their inability to get out their vote, but their inability to appeal to independents, and libdems.
Local elections are dominated by the ‘get the vote out’ politics, this will play into Labour hands.
Thus, if the SNP do steal Glasgow chambers, it will be an extremely tight run thing.
#16 by Ross on January 4, 2012 - 7:41 pm
I believe that the SNP and Labour have selected pretty much all of their candidates for Glasgow (and surrounding councils) now.
Obviously Labour’s selection process was a bloody affair but i gather that the SNP’s was no less competitive as local members saw what was coming. The only ones i know for definite are Bailliestoun (2 candidates in what is arguably their safest ward) as one is a sitting MSYP and the Scottish Youth parliament required a change in its constitution to allow this.