Labour’s motion on the referendum being debated as I type is pretty thin gruel:
Johann Lamont: Scotland’s Future—That the Parliament recognises that the Scottish Government has a mandate to call a referendum on the constitutional future of Scotland and calls on the First Minister to hold immediate cross-party talks, including with leaders from all quarters of civic Scotland, to agree a timetable for the referendum, to ensure that the referendum provides a clear result on a single question and to ensure that the referendum is run in Scotland by the Electoral Commission so that the people of Scotland can have an early and rigorous debate on the future of Scotland.
It must again cheer SNP hearts to see the Scottish Labour Party sign up to chunks of the UK administration’s misguided intervention, and the call for cross-party talks on the timetable only will easily be brushed off by the Maximum Eck. A call for an open constitutional convention to involve the public and civic Scotland in the broadest sense would have been more constructive, notably if it was to consider what kind of independent Scotland the public wish to be offered, in constitutional terms, and whether there is indeed real public demand for devo max. But that call remains something only the Greens are making so far, unfortunately.
The “single question” aspect is the most critical part, though. This is perhaps the only part of the phoney war over process that Labour could have influence over. A clear and robust decision by Scottish Labour to set out a devo max option (or full fiscal autonomy, or indeed anything more coherent than the Scotland Bill) would surely have seen the SNP bring that forward in legislation. The Nats have issued enough press releases trying to provoke Labour into doing precisely that, and Ministers have essentially committed to offering the middle way if someone else comes up with it.
Why have Labour turned this offer down? Let us assume it’s tactical rather than some reference to party policy.
Lallands Peat Worrier has made a comprehensive and convincing case that a devo max option would reduce the chances of an independence victory. So if Labour were looking to minimise the risk of Scotland going it alone, surely they’d have set out some middle position, even if it didn’t go as far as devo max? Mere devo-plus would have sufficed. More powers is a form of pragmatic Unionism in the same way Holyrood itself was Unionist – an effort to head off independence at the pass.
Although the poll results showing support for devo max may largely be driven by people tending to pick the middle option, as LPW says, there would have been major media and political advantages to Labour if they had been the party to set out what that middle option would have been. They’d have owned a question on the ballot, they could have been virtually centre stage throughout the debate, they’d have had something positive to make the case for, and their option would have been quite likely to have won.
But devo max is also what would suit a personally ambitious set of SNP Ministers best. As I’ve argued here before, it gives them a moderate win, a step towards the holy grail, something to keep the activists happy, yet it also allows them to keep governing. It’s almost impossible to imagine an SNP devo-plus administration not being returned in 2016. Declining the offer to set out an extension to Holyrood’s powers suggests Labour are more afraid of seeing the SNP’s hegemony grow and strengthen than they are of an increased risk of full independence.
A Yes vote, however, would see the SNP achieve their only purpose while would also depriving them of it. It would make the contest for the first post-indy Scottish Government an open one, one which Labour no doubt feel in their secret heart of hearts that they would well placed to win. The constitutional question would for the first time (deep intake of breath) not overshadow the other issues politics urgently needs to deal with – poverty, public services, taxation, climate change, the rest. Indeed, one former very senior Labour figure once told a friend of mine they’d be fine with independence so long as the Nats weren’t running the show.
Conversely, an outright No vote sends the SNP activists back home in despair and puts the question on hold for a generation – unless the SNP didn’t notice what happened to the Bloc Québécois when they kept pushing it. There is no burning agenda for the SNP to deliver with the existing powers, we know that already, just some pretty right-wing tax proposals for an independent Scotland, and so again a No vote could well be followed by a Labour-led administration on the existing powers. A stronger prospect of returning to power at Holyrood looks more important to Labour than reducing the risk to the Union, whatever they say in public.
Devo max may be Unionism, but few on that side of the argument would be so foolish to regard it as likely to kill nationalism stone dead. In fact, if you want to kill nationalism stone dead there’s only one way to do it. Give it what it’s always said it wants: a clear yes or no on independence. Conveniently, that’s also the best sort of ballot paper for those of us who want independence but also want to see the back of this economically right-wing SNP administration.
#1 by Aidan on January 12, 2012 - 11:47 am
Devo-max and certainly devo-plus, however defined, don’t need a referendum question though.
Is the current Scotland Bill perfect? Not really, but it’s a much better process for delivering more powers to Holyrood because it allows review and revision – something which independence does not. Even a referendum backed devo-max solution would preserve the constitutional settlement in aspic (as a certain backbench SNP MSP put it 20 minutes ago) to a great extent.
It’s just a bad way of doing this sort of thing.
#2 by Doug Daniel on January 12, 2012 - 12:18 pm
But Aidan, the reason people think “Devo max” sounds good is because they think Scotland should have the powers it would entail now, not the 10 or 20 years your softly softly catchee monkey approach would require.
Holyrood is more than capable of being in full control of all revenue and expenditure in Scotland – what is this unnamed peril that you seem to think is just waiting round the corner, ready to throw Scotland into complete disarray the second it is able to set its own tax rates etc?
#3 by Aidan on January 12, 2012 - 12:33 pm
Amendments to the Scotland Bill welcome, which may well be in effect before the referendum.
Independence won’t deliver usable powers to Holyrood until the end of the decade at best, and if negotiations over the tricky things drag on (as they may well) then perhaps a lot longer.
And did I say complete dissarray over tax setting powers (contained in the scotland bill btw)? No. In fact my point was a referendum backed constitutional change would be *less* flexible and open to change.
#4 by An Duine Gruamach on January 12, 2012 - 8:16 pm
This is the problem with not supporting a devo-max option, but still claiming that Party X will “strengthen devolution” later on when they feel like it. How will they strengthen it? What powers will they go to the barricades (against London colleagues?) for? When?
The Unionists already had a chance to strengthen devolution – and with Calman they made a mess of it. They’ve made another, slightly more panicked mess with the Scotland Bill. The option to strengthen that very bill to something less than devo-max, but still better than what they were offering was after May 5th: Salmond’s Six all had cross-party support. That was the time to outline a stronger devolution, that was the time to show us the Labour/ Tory/ Liberal vision of enhanced devolution, and they totally missed.
Thing is, we’ve seen this before – mind the Tories (and some in Labour) saying to vote No in 1979 because they had something better (undefined) to bring along later (undefined)?
#5 by Doug Daniel on January 13, 2012 - 8:42 am
Exactly, and this would in fact be Labour’s best hope of convincing people to vote “no” in the referendum.
It’s already clear from these early skirmishes that we’re in for 1,000 days of the positive independence message versus the negative unionist one, mainly because asking people to vote against something is pretty negative in itself. However, if Labour wanted to add a bit of positivity into the unionist proceedings, they could set out exactly what further powers they wish to extract from the UK government after the referendum if the people vote to reject independence.
After all, people accuse nationalists of not explaining what a post-referendum independent Scotland would look like and saying people can’t be asked to vote for the unknown, but the same is true of a post-referendum Scotland remaining in the union. Whatever the result, Scotland will be a very different place afterwards, so both sides need to be honest and tell us what it will look like if we vote in their direction.
Somehow I can see this being far more forthcoming from one side than from the other…
#6 by Thomas Widmann on January 12, 2012 - 11:55 am
Could somebody please explain to me what the big problem is with the Electoral Commission? I know they are appointed by the UK government, which of course makes it sound like they have a pro-Union agenda, but is that really true? They don’t seem to have interfered in the Scottish Parliament elections in a partisan way, as far as I can tell. Are they really likely to take a strongly pro-Union view when they make a ruling on the referendum question?
#7 by Jeff on January 12, 2012 - 12:21 pm
From the BBC’s account of FMQ:
FM says he’s not questioning anyone’s integrity over the issue of letting the Electoral Commission oversee the referendum campaign. The Scottish government feels it’s not appropriate because the watchdog “answers to the UK Parliament”.
Not an unreasonable point, but it’s unlikely that a random group of venerable Scots will be better placed than the Electoral Commission to do this job. I expect the SNP will cede this point in exchange for something else in time.
#8 by Doug Daniel on January 12, 2012 - 12:25 pm
I would have thought the most suitable people to have overseeing it would be a collection of people who have experience in independence referenda? That would exclude the Electoral Commission.
#9 by Jeff on January 12, 2012 - 12:36 pm
Why would a body need specific experience in specifically independence referenda. It’s a vote – you get the ballot boxes in the right places, you make sure the ballot papers are clear and you make sure there’s no campaigning within x hundred metres of a polling station.
It doesn’t really matter what the issue at hand is.
#10 by John Ruddy on January 14, 2012 - 7:07 pm
Except thats not what the SNP are saying. That would imply a number of people who have overseen such things overseas.
#11 by An Duine Gruamach on January 12, 2012 - 8:18 pm
I think you’re on the money with this one, Jeff – it’s a tactical objection. Something as unequal as Votes at 16 in exchange for the Electoral Commission running the vote is maybe a little unrealistic, but I’d be unsurprised if this was dropped for some other concession in negotiations.
#12 by James on January 12, 2012 - 8:31 pm
Precisely Patrick Harvie’s suggestion.
#13 by Gaz on January 12, 2012 - 9:01 pm
My understanding is that it is a bit more fundamental than some other suggestions.
The Electoral Commission is made up of politicians – which is probably fine for elections because they will all have different views on who they want to win. It was probably fine for the AV referendum too as views across the political spectrum were well spread.
For a Referendum, we are likely to be in a position where virtually all the members would prefer a particular outcome and that, I’m afraid, is no basis for conducting an impartial process try as they might.
The body Salmond wants would have no politicians involved and would presumably be appointed to provide balance with respect to the matter in hand.
I don’t think there is any danger the Scottish Government will concede that the Refrerendum is overseen by Electoral Commission.
Personally, I think the Electoral Commission is totally ineffectual anyway. It doesn’t seem to have the ability to sanction Parties who trangress beyond slapping their wrists.
#14 by John Ruddy on January 14, 2012 - 7:10 pm
“virtually all the members”
Interesting to note that George Reid has changed his views – have you told him yet?
Also interesting to note that 4 political appointees out of 11 members equates to “virtually all”. Is this the sort of maths that will be used in counting votes in the referendum under the SNPs rules?
#15 by gavin on January 12, 2012 - 11:58 am
Aiden, if Devo Max is not on the ballot, I cannot see how Labour would get any more powers for Holyrood. A straight NO in the referendum would give Westminster the triumphalism to say:- No more referendums. No more devolution. End to Barnett. I think Cameron is a poor political tactition but this victory would propel him to electoral victory and maybe more then one. The LibDems will be a rump for years, Labour stuck with Miliband and Balls. How will they deliver more Devolution?
#16 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 12:21 pm
Absolutely, this is the big bogie that no one wants to talk about. Scotland has only ever got concessions on the constitution because of the threat of nationalism and the danger of a break up of Britain. George Robertson gave the game away when he said devolution would kill the nationalist threat stone dead. A NO vote in the referendum would be a green light to English MPs, both Tory and Labour, to go on the offensive. They are already gearing up for this as a report in today’s Telegraph testifies. Three English Tory MPs are calling for Barnett to be scrapped and are campaigning for the Tory party manifesto for the next UK election to contain a pledge for equal spending per head in each of the component parts of the union, which, of course, only makes sense only on the basis of a NO vote in the referendum. They claim that the Tory Welsh Secretary and Justine Greening, when she was a treasury minister, have both stated publically that they are sympathetic to this.
English MPs do not see full fiscal autonomy as an answer to this they see it as yet another concession to the jocks and as compromising the union because it would make it very difficult to justify Scottish MPs voting on English matters, which, of course, could mean that a government could have a UK majority but not a majority for English business. This would inevitably lead to pressure for an English Parliament to solve the anomaly, but as most MPs believe an English Parliament would destabilise the union they will never agree to it. The upshot of all this is that from Westminster’s perspective there is greater reasons to row back devolution than to extend it. Without the pressure of a possible break away of Scotland don’t believe any talk of further devolution in the future.
#17 by Aidan on January 12, 2012 - 12:34 pm
That’s a valid theoretical complaint, but when was the last majority at Westminster dependent on Scottish votes?
#18 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 12:41 pm
Yes but regardless of that. There will be pressure to cut back on any perceived concession to Scotland and on restricting devolution and even trying to introduce measures to ensure greater policy convergence. Also however, theoretical the issue of a government not having a majority for English business has been raised every time this issue has been discussed. I note that you are reluctant to engage with the substance of what has been said, choosing instead got duck it.
#19 by Angus McLellan on January 12, 2012 - 4:40 pm
That would be a question better asked after the next UK general election, always assuming that Scotland votes in it.
#20 by An Duine Gruamach on January 12, 2012 - 8:21 pm
It doesn’t need to be a governmental majority, to be influential in specific cases. Tuition Fees and Foundation Hospitals under Blair spring to mind.
#21 by Dubbieside on January 12, 2012 - 7:33 pm
Alex
If there is a no vote the tory MPs would take that as a green light to do their worst in Scotland.
I also think that the torys winning the referendum vote, dont lets kid ourselves that it is anything other than a straight SNP versus tory contest, would see the torys returned to power in Westminster for a generation.
You could outline the tory election campaign now. Dave and Boris the men who saved the union, the men who put these upity Scots back in their box, the men who will put the great back into Britain.
Are Labour really wanting to share a platform and help a campaign that will see them defeated in middle England for a generation. Do their supporters in Scotland think a triumphant tory party sweeping all before them in England, with the resultant damage that will cause in Scotland, will help their re-election in Scotland?
#22 by Aidan on January 12, 2012 - 12:21 pm
Well, that really is the burning unanswered question isn’t it?
Hopefully the Scotland Bill will become law before the referendum and we’ll have a precedent to follow if Independence is rejected.
#23 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 12:34 pm
It is bound to become law before the referendum. That’s part of the reason for having the referendum in the second half of the parliamentary term (though only part – and I don’t want to open up a debate about the timing again. Please!)
#24 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 12:44 pm
Its not bound to become law. It can only become law if the Scottish Parliament votes for it. Westminster shows no sign of making gthec changes necessary.
#25 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 1:07 pm
Ok. What I mean is it’s bound to become law – or not – before the referendum. It will be done and dusted by then.
#26 by Aidan on January 12, 2012 - 12:47 pm
In which case there’ll be clear procedure laid down for further devolution to follow, job done!
#27 by BaffieBox on January 12, 2012 - 1:01 pm
The Scotland Bill in it’s current form? The bill that has been roundly criticised as not fit for purpose, and potentially largely damaging?
This is why, increasing, the Union doesnt do anything for me. Nothing is done properly. Every time, it’s a rushed job, a fudge, to make the minimal change in order to keep a pressure group, in this case Scotland, happy. The Barnett formula and the way the entire Scottish balance sheet is built on top of it, is the perfect example.
And now the Scotland Bill, with all it’s problems is seen acceptable because it enables or demonstrates a procedure allowing something undefined to happen in the future? More of the same. The Scotland Bill, if it’s passed will only provide more confirmation to me, someone who could have entertained something of a federal UK, that the UK is dead.
#28 by gavin on January 12, 2012 - 12:58 pm
Didnt I see Baroness Liddell just the other night talking about ditching the Scotland Bill.?
The Scotland Bill a precedent for further Devolution? I just dont see your reasoning here. The Calmon Commission was only set up to thwart the SNPs advance. A No vote would emasculate ALL Scottish politicians not just the SNP.
#29 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 1:03 pm
In reply to the article, the real issue is what happens to Scotland’s future inside the union as a result of this high risk, polarised referendum. If there is a NO vote Scotland becomes a busted flush within the union and the pent up frustrations in England and in Wales, at the perceived concessions Scotland has received will all come to a head, as is already beginning to happen as the report in the Telegraph mentioned above testifies. It is Labour’s lack of concern about this that is the real shocker. One could argue that this is the real reason why Alex Salmond is so keen to have it on the ballot paper.
#30 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 1:06 pm
Here is what I think.
1. Labour – both at Scottish and UK level – don’t believe that the SNP can win a yes vote. They believe almost as an article of faith that, at the end of the day, the Scottish people will vote no, the SNP will collapse into a fractious rabble and Labour will be re-elected. They believe this to such an extent that some of them don’t even believe we really want to have a referendum but secretly hope that it all gets tied up in legal wrangling with the Supreme Court. They are however worried, not least because they still have their own internal problems, they have no money and they also have to worry about the council elections, European elections and the next UK election. (And what to do about Ed Milliband, but let’s not intrude too far into private grief). They are also worried that they will look too cosy with the Tories sharing the same pro-Union platform.
2. The SNP – from top to bottom, left to right, corner to corner and edge to edge – believe that we can win independence. Maybe we are mental but that’s what we believe.
3. Part of how we think we can win is by the way we campaign and the way we make the whole process around the referendum as inclusive as possible. If I was Tony Blair I would be saying we want to make this the Peoples Referendum. But I’m not, so I won’t. That is where the whole Devo Max thing fits in and has always fitted in. It is both genuine – cos we do genuinely believe that the right outcome of the referendum is the outcome that delivers what most people want. If we fail to make the case for independence and a majority supported Devo Max but only a minority supported Independence then that would be our fault because the voters are never wrong. But it’s also political in the sense that it is handy for us to demonstrate that the unionist parties are against any further change, which is what their rejection of a Devo Max option shows. (There are of course other issues with Devo Max such as the fact that it is entirely in the gift of Westminster but that’s another issue, we are talking here about consulting the Scottish people in a referendum about what they want).
4. A lot of these issues are going to be clarified when the SG consultation is published in a couple of months. That is the point at which the supporters of Devo Max in civic Scotland can really make their voices heard above the political fray. I am genuinely uncertain about whether that will happen though because although there has been a lot of talk about it it has all been about whether or not it is a political ploy and if so what the purpose is, there hasn’t been much actual substantive debate. The consultation process is also the way in which issues around a written constitution etc can be brought into play in a structured way. I would expect the consultation to be quite big and detailed because they have probably been writing it for some time – in contrast to the UK Government document which was clearly written in a hurry.
5. Once the consultation process is underway we can hopefully move on from all these silly arguments about the Supreme Court stopping it happen etc etc and get on with the debate. Hopefully.
#31 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 1:45 pm
An excellence summary: the only thing I’d add is that the press today are saying that the Scottish Government’s consultation is going to be published in the week beginning Jan 23rd, also that the Guardian has produced names of people likely to lead a civic Devo-Max campaign. They said it would involve the voluntary sector, trades unions and business and mention Andrew? Simme, as its main organiser.
#32 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 2:40 pm
Yes I meant a couple of weeks not months. I think it is maybe Martin Sime? He is chief exec of the SCVO.
#33 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 3:15 pm
Yeh that’s him.
#34 by Alwyn ap Huw on January 12, 2012 - 3:28 pm
Type your comment here
I suspect that part of the problem with the Electoral Commission might be funding levels. The maximum amount that campaigners in the AV referendums and the Welsh Devolution referendums last year was fairly low; for example the maximum that the Welsh Labour party was allowed to spend was only £600k (a sum based on the size of its vote); even if we triple this sum to take into account the larger population in Scotland a higher turnout and an SNP majority the SNP may already have more in their referendum fund than the EC would allow them to spend. The other factor on maximum spending based on the size of the vote was that although Labour was allowed to spend most the combined spending power of the other parties was over £900K. Could the EC allow the unionist parties to spend as much as a third more than the nationalist side in a Scottish referendum?
#35 by Thomas Widmann on January 12, 2012 - 3:39 pm
Ah yes, that could be the issue. Especially given that it’s likely that people on the Yes side are more likely to be willing to donate than people on the No side, simply because many people feel strongly about achieving independence, while very few feel strongly about avoiding it.
I’m also wondering what the position will be concerning donations from outside Scotland. I have a feeling the Electoral Commission just might allow donations from the entire UK while blocking those from outwith the union. It’s probably in the SNP’s interest to either restrict donations to just Scotland or to allow them from everywhere.
#36 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 4:02 pm
Surely funding limits only kick in during the regulated period and that will only start within a matter of months of referendum day. The SNP will spend the vast bulk of the money prior to any regulated period. The SG already set out its proposals on this in the draft referendum bill in 2010:
The Scottish Referendum Commission
3.3. The Scottish Government’s intention is that the referendum is run to the highest international standards. It is therefore essential to ensure that the campaign rules are followed and policed. The Government believes that a regulator, in the form of a commission answerable to the Scottish Parliament, should be established to fulfil that role.
3.4. The draft Bill creates a commission – the Scottish Referendum Commission – on a one off basis to monitor the referendum. Based on the model of the Electoral Commission,the Referendum Commission will:
take a fair and balanced approach to its activities and be seen to be operating in this manner;
• report to the Scottish Parliament; and
• be, and be seen to be, at no risk of Government influence in its affairs.
3.5. The Commission will, with limited exceptions, be completely independent of the direction of the Scottish Parliament and Government. The draft Bill proposes that there should be three Commissioners, one of whom will act as Chair. Recognising the politically sensitive nature of the referendum, elected politicians in the UK, Scottish and
European Parliaments, and those with strong political affiliations over the past 5 years,are disqualified from becoming Commissioners. Each Commissioner will be nominated by the Scottish Parliament for appointment by Her Majesty The Queen.
The Commission’s staff must neither be politicians nor have held strong political affiliations over the past 12 months.
3.6. The Scottish Referendum Commission’s functions will include:
• publishing guidance for voters;
• publishing guidance for Counting Officers;
• publishing guidance for permitted participants (individuals or organisations
campaigning in the referendum) on the returns they must make to the Commission
in relation to the money they spend on campaigning and donations they receive;
• observing the conduct of the referendum at polling stations;
• observing the conduct of the count;
• making copies of the returns detailing the money spent and donations received by
permitted participants available for public inspection; and
• publishing a report on the conduct and administration of the referendum.
The draft bill also proposed a spending limit for a designated participant (i.e the yes campaign and no campaign) of £750,000. Individual politcal parties would be limited to spending a maximum of £100,000.
#37 by FormerChampagneSocialist on January 12, 2012 - 11:58 pm
Surely the funding should also be limited to funds raised within Scotland? Would be a bit odd if the Unionists were able to buy the vote with funds from outside Scotland.
#38 by Indy on January 13, 2012 - 11:14 am
The funding of political parties is already regulated to prevent that. I imagine similar rules will apply to designated organisations.
#39 by John Ruddy on January 14, 2012 - 7:14 pm
When the SNP published their white paper on the referendum in the last parliament (the one that wasnt put to the vote), the limit on expenditure was to be set at 750k.
But that was before they got £2million to spend on it.
Maybe the fact they want to increase that limit is just a coincidence?
#40 by Indy on January 14, 2012 - 10:48 pm
Who says they want to increase the limit? That money will be spent well in advance of the referendum. It’s being sent now.
Early money wins more votes, That is one thing our American cousins have taught us.
#41 by William Brown on January 12, 2012 - 4:52 pm
Indy My nominations don’t meet the conditions (sadly), but it would have been fun to see Labour complain about Henry McLeish or Malcolm Chisholm, and the Liberals about John Farqhuar Munro.
#42 by Indy on January 12, 2012 - 5:17 pm
Well the irony is that one of the current commissioners on the electoral commission is George Reid. I mean – can you imagine it? Former SNP MP & MSP with a role in the referendum? The unionists would go nuts. The SNP’s proposals would ensure no ex-politicians would be involved.
#43 by haarandrime on January 12, 2012 - 5:57 pm
Found this blog post from the UCL Constitution Unit very interesting and I think one of the best things that will come from the independence discussions will be an exploration and examination of the over dominance of England in the United Kingdom
http://constitution-unit.com/2012/01/11/but-what-union/
#44 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 6:37 pm
Been reading Guy Lodge in Prospect Magazine, during which I had an epiphany; the penny dropped. He pointed out that it was only by supporting more powers that any of the London parties could reconnect with the aspirations of the Scottish people and I realised that was why Alex Salmond had spoken about devo-max to confuse and dumbfound his opponents. In doing so, he made it hellishly difficult for any of the three unionist parties to think straight. As they feel they would be capitulating they have all shunned devo-max, their only hope of decisively getting ahead of the game. Clever man oor Eck.
#45 by Don McC on January 12, 2012 - 7:53 pm
Alex, I keep coming back to Wee Dougie Alexander’s interview a month or two ago when he spoke about Scottish Labour “perhaps” offering more powers to head off a yes vote. He was doing this with one of two intentions:
1 – It’s a mealy mouthed promise of more powers that he knows Westminster would have no intention of delivering in the foreseeable future, but he hopes to con enough people with the promise to reduce the number of people voting yes.
or
2 – He accepts that most Scots want, indeed demand, more powers for Holyrood but since Devo-max is a SNP idea, Scottish Labour can’t support it but will come back with their own idea instead (Devo-Ultra? Maximus Devois?)
Either way, it cames across (and I accept he wasn’t spouting official party policy) as Scottish Labour prepared to put party before Scotland (again).
Despite all this, though, I still insist that Salmond brought up the subject of Devo-Max to ensure it definitely WON’T appear in any referendum ballot. The Unionists out-foxed (again!).
#46 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 9:23 pm
I don’t think that’s quite clear yet. Salmond is making an awful lot of emphasis on not closing down the choice in order to meet the aspirations of civic Scotland. He would lay himself open to charges cynicism if he turned round and agreed to a straight choice on independence now. All the indications are that he really means this.
#47 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 7:36 pm
Just to add to that comment: part of my penny dropping is the realisation that it is the enchantment with, and dogged defence of, the hallowed verities of Westminster Parliamentary Sovereignty-ism, that makes it so very, very difficult for the unionist parties to relate electorally successfully to modern Scottish devolution. This was evident today on the debate in the Scottish Parliament on the referendum. Given that the SNP and the green make up just over half of the chamber, the divide was stark on displayed. Those in the unionist half seemed to inhabit a time warp, with their contorted justification for the Westminster’s latest cynical moves. This is why Westminster has got it wrong. Just because they’ve studied the Canadian experience extensively they think they have the edge but today showed there can be no easy match up with Quebec. This is also why the SNP is so devastatingly dangerous because they are in tune with where Scotland is heading. Even if they lose the referendum this fact alone will ensure that they will triumph in the end.
#48 by Craig Gallagher on January 13, 2012 - 5:32 am
Lodge makes an implicit point as well that the only way for the unionists to win the referendum is to effectively give in to Salmond and campaign on Devo Max, a settlement that I have no doubts Wee Eck would be happy to have as his legacy.
Every day this astonishing and gripping political drama unfolds, I find myself marveling more and more at the foresight of Salmond and the SNP’s strategists (of whom Stephen Noon is probably prominent). Before the unionists had even got themselves into a position to formulate a strategy, Eck may have deprived them entirely of the argument they want to make by changing the question to one of more powers for the Scottish Parliament, or else full independence. Now the unionists run the risk of leaving it and losing it all, or taking it and effectively admitting that Salmond has won before a shot has been fired.
It’s masterful political theatre, and it serves as a reminder that Salmond has been in this game a lot longer than Cameron, Osborne, Miliband or Clegg, all of whom think they are the cocks of the walk.
#49 by Observer on January 12, 2012 - 8:01 pm
If the referendum is a straight yes/no & the no side wins (but not by a huge margin), & there is no devo max option on the ballot paper then I would imagine that the SNP would just get voted in again – to pursue devo max, as they would be the only party who could realistically promote it, as Labour have knocked it back.
It really makes no sense at all for Labour to behave the way that they are behaving (particularly as it looks like bringing them into conflict with the STUC).
I can only suppose that they are so mesmerised by Alex Salmond that they have lost their collective wits in trying to defeat him. To me they have left him in a win win situation. If Labour had championed devo max & that was the outcome of the referendum then Salmond would have lost some of his shine. But they seem determined to oppose that.
Very peculiar indeed.
#50 by Gaz on January 12, 2012 - 8:49 pm
That’s a very good point actually.
Then again, it has been obvious for some time that Labour are unable to think strategically. It’s like they always have to be reacting to something.
I wrote on another blog that Cameron’s intervention makes no sense either – unless he has now realised that he can pretend he is trying to defend the Union while actually agitating for its demise.
#51 by Alex Buchan on January 12, 2012 - 9:18 pm
Cameron and Osborn got too sure of themselves, because of all the research they did in Canada on Quebec, and all the policy wonks they’ve had working on this.
#52 by Gaz on January 12, 2012 - 8:42 pm
James,
After your last couple of articles, I’m beginning to think the Greens should have been campaigning hard on the constitutional question last year.
Anyway, I agree with most of what you say except your analysis of the post-Independence politics.
Should Labour campaign for a No vote, then it cannot credibly ask to run the first Independent Scottish Government. It will probably take a generation until they are a realstic alternative administration. Which is why I don’t understand why Labour in Scotland, as opposed to the ones with their noses in the trough in London, don’t just stay out of the argument altogether (saying we are for social justice and we will work with whatever constitutional settlement Scots want) or embrace Independence as a way of ensuring we never have to endure another right-wing government (of either red or blue hue) again.
All this is good news for the Greens though, because your reward for being on the right side of the debate post-Independence will be to pick up lots of support from the more radical wing of the current SNP and those that inevitably become disaffected once the goal has been achieved.
(In fact you would probably get several members out of my extended family alone!!!)
#53 by Barbarian on January 13, 2012 - 8:35 am
I think it is too early to say that one side or the other has the long-term startegic advantage. All we are getting is rheotoric on both sides, with a few ill-judged comments thrown in (Joan McAlpine yesterday for starters!).
At the moment it’s the Christmas panto season – “oh yes we will” “oh no you won’t”.
All well and good, but too many supporters on both sides are making the dangerous assumption that their side will win.
#54 by Indy on January 13, 2012 - 10:28 am
Incidentally I see no reason at all why Joan McAlpine should apologise for saying that “the Liberals, the Labour Party and the Tories are anti-Scottish in coming together to defy the will of the Scottish people and the democratic mandate that they gave us to hold a referendum at a time of our choosing.â€
If the Coalition parties don’t want to be accused of being anti-Scottish they should respect the outcome of the Scottish election the way they would respect the outcome of an election in any other country. And the way that the SNP respects the outcome of Westminster elections. Simples. They should respect the right of the Scottish Government – which was democratically elected by the Scottish people – to hold a referendum on Independence in line with its manifesto commitment.
And if Labour don’t want to be accused of being anti-Scottish they should stop backing up the Tory/Lib Dem line and start backing the Scottish Government. I am not, of course, saying that they should start backing independence. But they should back the right of the Scottish people to get what they voted for – a referendum. They should not confuse backing the right of the Scottish Government to hold a referendum with backing the Scottish Government’s preferred outcome which appears to me to be what they are doing.
The fact that there has been such a hysterical reaction to Joan’s comments suggests to me that many Labour members are actually pretty uncomfortable with the position their party has taken in choosing to line up with Cameron and Osborne against the Scottish Government. That’s why they are so touchy.
#55 by James on January 13, 2012 - 11:50 am
It’s not just Labour members. I think it’s a revolting comment, one which reminds me of Senator Joe McCarthy.
#56 by Indy on January 13, 2012 - 1:40 pm
In what way is it revolting?
Are you not also confusing support for the right of the Scottish Government to hold a referendum with support for independence?
Don’t you accept that the SNP has a mandate given to them by the Scottish people to hold a referendum on independence?
Surely you must. And not because you think the SNP is great or even because you want to have a referendum on independence yourself. Surely it’s because you recognise that this is what the Scottish people voted for. Collectively they chose to give us that mandate, they chose to put us in a position to implement our policy. Whether or not anyone agrees with the voters or with the SNP or with independence is irrelevant here. The issue is the lack of respect for the democratic process That’s what really ought to revolt and it’s a shame it doesn’t.
#57 by James on January 13, 2012 - 7:01 pm
It’s revolting because it’s McCarthyite language. Good proper Scots on one side, anti-Scottish self-loathers on the other. That’s not the kind of independent country I want to see.
And how on earth you think that comment allows you to deduce a whole series of other policy views on my part I have no idea.
#58 by Indy on January 14, 2012 - 10:53 pm
Well I genuinely don’t see that. I have heard people in the SNP talking about anti-Scottish Tories for decades and no-one has ever complained. Because, you know, they are anti-Scottish and if you listened to the comments after Michael Moore’s statement I seriously don’t see how you could question that many of them were anti-Scottish.. That’s a big part of the reason why Scots don’t tend to vote Tory. And Labour will pay a high price for lining up with the Tories on this one in my view.
#59 by JPJ2 on January 13, 2012 - 10:36 am
I saw Patrick Harvie on Newsnight Scotland last night.
He performed impressively (he usually does, to be fair) but as some have previously suggested, the Green support for independence could well be critical in the referendum.
Separately, does anyone have views on this potential scenario:
Devo Max is on the ballot paper and wins. Westminster refuses to enact it (not in referendum, rest of UK does not agree and needs to etc.etc.)
SNP stands in Holyrood election 2016 saying that,given Westminster intransigence, they are asking the electorate to give them another absolute majority which they would interpret as a vote for independence, pass an act in Holyrood (hopefully with Green & Margo support) and ask for UN and EU approval.
#60 by Alex Buchan on January 14, 2012 - 12:37 am
Don’t think that is a runner for the simple reason that if the referendum chooses devo-max it must also have rejected independence. Unless independence had more than 50% of the vote in the referendum the Scottish government would be very foolish to try this tactic.
It doesn’t need to up the ante in this way and it could be counter-productive as the majority of Scots are not commited nationalists and don’t take kindly to government which cause them problems. Unlike Rhodesia we are not a colony. Our tax, welfare and pensions systems are fully integrated into the UK. We cannot unilaterally leave, everything has to be negotiated.
But having said all that the UK state would enter a period of crisis if Scotland voted for devo-max. If the SNP continued to do well electorally independence would eventually become accepted as the only way out of the impasse and the Scottish publics attitude would have shifted by then.
#61 by Dr William Reynolds on January 13, 2012 - 10:57 am
While my preference is for full independence,I would like to see Full Fiscal Autonomy on the ballot paper.In that sense the questions would reflect the diversity of preferences detected from the polling evidence.Lets test this assumption that the vast majority want the tools for economic growth to be in the hands of the Scottish Parliament (either through full independence,or Full Fiscal Autonomy).
I think that James article is excellent and I agree with most of what he says.I would hope that the Greens would work alongside the SNP and others during the referendum.This is the time to put differences aside.
#62 by gavin on January 13, 2012 - 12:13 pm
I was puzzled at Milibands choice of battleground to fight for the Union.
1The NHS- Labour started on the road to privatization,which the Tories have taken up. This will be detrimental to Scotland via Barnett consequencials.
2-Defence. Scotland does badly out of defence per capita. A few bases ( some closing ) and some shipbuilding, which has no certain future in the Union either.
3- The BBC. Scotland has always had a poor funding deal for our licence fee. If Scotland disapeared beneath the waves, English people would see no differance on the telly.