Prime Minister David Cameron was on Andrew Marr this morning and he made several eyebrow-raising points regarding Scotland (see transcript below), including confirmation that a statement will be made “in the coming days” on the legal aspect of the independence referendum.

David Cameron believes that “we owe the Scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive”, decisive being the most interesting word for me there. He also “(doesn’t) think we should just let this (uncertainty and lack of clarity) go on year after year”. Cameron is keen to “move forward” and “settle this issue in a fair and decisive way”. And there’s that d- word again. Indeed, he mentioned decisive or decisiveness four times in total, so something is afoot.

My expectation is one of three possibilities:

Either:-
(1) David Cameron will announce a fast tracking of the transfer of powers from Westminster to Holyrood in order to deprive Alex Salmond from having any excuses to name his date and get on with Scotland deciding its future, one way or the other.

or

(2) David Cameron will announce a UK version of the National Conversation, an effort to engage with Scots and talk up what the UK is and why Scotland should stick with it.

or

(3) David Cameron will announce that Westminster, the Parliament with the legal competence to do so, will facilitate an independence referendum in order to end the uncertainty surrounding Scotland’s constitutional arrangement.

Of the three options, the first doesn’t change things too much other than put a little bit of extra pressure on Salmond to get a move on (easily ignored), the second is a decent idea to get the unionist side of the debate in early but is likely to be as unsuccessful as the original National Conversation and the third, well, the third one makes more sense from a unionist perspective – using Westminster’s existing powers to hold a Yes/No referendum on Scottish independence.

Yes, the SNP will jump up and down about London ‘butting in’ to Scotland’s affairs and will go on about its (highly questionable) mandate to hold a referendum at the end of this parliamentary term but both sides are playing to win and if Alex Salmond wants to have the plebiscite later to maximise his chances of winning then it is reasonable that David Cameron sees it the other way. Furthermore, the Prime Minister is still responsible for Scotland and if he can see that Scotland is losing out on investment, losing out on jobs as a result of this uncertainty then he has a duty to act.

I’ve said before that the unionists best chance of a win is to move early and I’ll happily say it again. It looks like we’ll find out this week to what extent the Prime Minister agrees.

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ANDREW MARR SHOW TRANSCRIPT – 8th Jan

ANDREW MARR:
Let’s turn to something that might be about getting smaller, not getting bigger, and that’s the United Kingdom itself. Are you determined to affect the timing and the questions of any referendum on Scottish independence?

DAVID CAMERON:
Well I think there is a problem today, in fact two problems. One is the uncertainty about this issue I think is damaging to Scotland and Scotland’s economy because you have companies and other organisations asking well what’s Scotland’s future. Is it within the United Kingdom or not? That’s damaging. And, secondly, I think it’s very unfair on the Scottish people themselves who don’t really know when this question is going to be asked, what the question is going to be, who’s responsible for asking it, and I think we owe the Scottish people something that is fair, legal and decisive. And so in the coming days we’ll be setting out clearly what the legal situation is, and I think then we need to move forward and say, right, let’s settle this issue in a fair and decisive way.

ANDREW MARR:
So what is the legal situation because you know I think, as most people understood it, Alex Salmond as First Minister of Scotland would decide when the referendum was going to happen and the question of whether it’s an in or out referendum or whether there was a third option there would be down to the Scottish administration to decide. Is that something you don’t believe to be the case?

DAVID CAMERON:
Well we’re going to make clear – and I’m afraid I can’t do it today – but we’ll be making clear in the coming days what the legal situation is, and then I think we need a proper debate where people can put forward their views. But my view very strongly is the Scottish people deserve some clarity, some decisiveness, and obviously they deserve it to be legal and binding. And I think that’s very, very …

ANDREW MARR:
(over) So sooner rather than later?

DAVID CAMERON:
(over) Let me be absolutely clear, put my cards on the table. I strongly support the United Kingdom. I think it’s one of the most successful partnerships in the history of the world.

ANDREW MARR:
Yuh.

DAVID CAMERON:
I think it would be desperately sad if Scotland chose to leave the United Kingdom and I’ll do everything I can to encourage Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom because I think that’s the best for all our economies – Scotland included – and all our societies.

ANDREW MARR:
And of course if Scotland did leave the United Kingdom, that would be the end of Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent, wouldn’t it?

DAVID CAMERON:
Well there would be many disadvantages from a break-up of the United Kingdom. You know all those issues would have to be dealt with. But let’s not go there. You know we have this great partnership. This partnership’s worked so well for us in the past, we must keep it into the future. But let’s have some decisiveness about it. Let’s not drift apart with … I think what Alex Salmond is trying to do is just … I think he knows that the Scottish people at heart don’t want a full separation from the United Kingdom and so he’s trying to sort of create a situation where that bubbles up and happens, whereas I think we need some decisiveness so we can clear up this issue.

ANDREW MARR:
And just on the timing. He also apparently wants to have this vote in 2014, the anniversary of the great Battle of Bannockburn when lots of people called Cameron defeated lots of people called Osborne or something like that. But at any rate, he would like it to be 2014. You are saying no, let’s have the vote earlier.

DAVID CAMERON:
Well I think this is a matter for the Scottish people …

ANDREW MARR:
(over) Oh it is, it is.

DAVID CAMERON:
… and if there are problems of uncertainty and lack of clarity, I don’t think we should just let this go on year after year. I think that’s damaging for everyone concerned, so let’s clear up the legal situation and then let’s have a debate about how we bring this issue to a conclusion.

ANDREW MARR:
(over) And sooner, not later?

DAVID CAMERON:
My view is that sooner rather than later would be better.