Until yesterday, George Papandreou cut a weak and desperate figure as Greece’s Prime Minister. It’s arguable how much influence he felt he had over the terms of the “bailout” and associated austerity measures, and back in June he was so unhappy with his situation that he privately offered to step down in favour of a grand coalition.
Listening to the sleek-suited representatives of the IMF and the ECB, it must have felt like Hobson’s choice. Undermine not just the Greek economy but also Europe’s with a default on one hand, or aggravate inequality and hand over control of the Greek economy to the agents of the markets.
Either way, unpopularity looms and the problems grow. But as so often, if you don’t like any of the answers, ask a different question. Or in this case, ask different people the same question: the electorate.
It’s genius, at least potentially. What’s promised is not a messy general election about confidence and personality in amongst these issues, it’s a referendum that will give a clear answer.
There are plenty of reasons for Greeks to say no. Neither option is without pain, of course, and no option could be painless given their predicament. But a No vote rejects the iniquitous voluntary 50% writedown of debt which the hedge funds are rubbing their hands over, as discussed before. It rejects a austerity programme which doesn’t just end some of the ridiculous Greek state inefficiencies but sells off the family silver and slashes the social safety net.
It surely also means Greece gets out of the gilded trap that is the Euro. They did well from it when the books could be cooked and the European Regional Development Fund kept throwing money at their infrastructure, but there can be few who now look into the retrospectoscope and still believe the single currency was in Greece’s long term best interests. The same probably applies to Italy and others – in fact, the economic arguments for diverse economies using a single exchange rate have never seemed convincing – but letting Greece burn won’t let Italy off the hook.
The proper default that would follow would also in part be a liberation rather than the Götterdammerung the market analysts and other siren voices warn about.  It largely worked for Argentina, for instance. A no vote would also be the first substantial stake through the heart of the bailout/injection/recapitalisation myth, as lovingly excoriated by Matt Taibbi *. This initiative might mean the Masters of Risk start to bear their own losses, not palm them off onto taxpayers. It’d be a push-back against the moral hazard the markets have fallen into, a problem both socialists and free-marketeers should be concerned about. (Incidentally, wouldn’t it be great every time a financial analyst appeared on the TV news they had to declare where their interests lay in relation to the story they’re discussing?)
Alternatively, from Papandreou’s point of view, if he gets a yes, at least he has clear support for this ill-advised programme, and both PASOK and the Euro will survive, for now. He was backed deep into a corner and now, either way, with a single bound he’s free. Whatever the result, there will be a substantial price to pay for all the unsustainable borrowing, including a higher rate to pay for future loans no matter how the vote goes, but the Greek people will have democratically chosen their own course. No wonder the chair of the Greek Chamber of Commerce was whining on the radio this morning. This vote means there is a route out, and while he may have felt unable to reject the terms, it’ll be politically impossible for the vultures to ignore the will of the Greek people.
In response to the call of a referendum the markets dived. Of course they did. Banks, hedgies, all those with massive exposure to the CDS markets and relevant derivatives, all of them were expecting another skip-load of taxpayers’ money to be transferred directly to their bottom lines, but now they have been forced to care about the reported 60% popular opposition to the deal. Those companies are worth less this morning because traders realise they may have to cover their own losses. What a radical thought. Bravo sydrofe.
*Â I will make you read that article if it’s the last thing I do.
#1 by Ian Baxter on November 1, 2011 - 12:01 pm
All very true, except that Greece joining the Euro is irrelevant. True, it would have avoided the very hard landing, but political and economic madness will out, whatever the monetary system. Politicos who prefer their own currency do so because they can mask structural problems for far longer than a poorly regulated EU. And the implications of devaluation appear far later, usually well after the next election!
#2 by Ken on November 1, 2011 - 12:03 pm
“It largely worked for Argentina, for instance. ”
Apart from including the 25% inflation rate they have you mean.
The 3rd para from the end seems to be slightly romanticising the prospect of a default. If/when it happens, it’s not going to be pretty for them as a people.
– “Banks will be closed and nationalised, effectively freezing all financial transactions: capital controls will be imposed and payments – including salaries and pensions – will be halted.
The government will have to take immediate steps to assure food, medical and fuel supplies, requiring an extraordinary degree of effective leadership, organisation and administrative competence, for which it’s never before shown the slightest capacity.
The political leaders will control the nation’s money. Likely to declare a state of emergency, they’ll control everything.
There will be unrest – its form and severity impossible to predict. Inevitably, it won’t be restricted to the familiar, orchestrated, easily controlled shows in Athens, but will erupt in towns and villages across the land. Nor can anyone predict how forces set to restore order will react.” –
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/31/greece-default-euro-consequences
#3 by James on November 1, 2011 - 12:07 pm
It’s high but it’s not that high.
#4 by Ken on November 1, 2011 - 12:23 pm
Type your comment here
Counter, via a graph and a WaPo / Foreign Policy article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/battle-over-argentinas-true-inflation-rate/2011/10/31/gIQAWHruZM_graphic.html
“Labor unions.. routinely seek and win 30 percent annual raises for workers, not the single-digit increases that would be expected were the inflation rate as low as the government contends. Public spending also rises at that rate. Even a government-organized commission of economists from five universities concluded that the official inflation figure was vastly lower than the real rate.”
Or the Beeb: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12822426
No one actually believes the Argentine Government on this – but that’s a side issue to your piece I think. (Thanks for the edit by the way)
#5 by James on November 1, 2011 - 12:30 pm
Fair enough – I’d need to read more around that, thanks for the debate. Quick question back on the main point: do you think default (with the admitted downsides) would be better for Greece than the ts&cs currently offered.
#6 by Ken on November 1, 2011 - 2:43 pm
I think it’s inevitable, but it needs to be controlled as much as possible. The romantic ‘going it alone’ version has too many risks to its own society – even worse than it’s going through now. If they leave, give two fingers to the EU – they’re left with two choices: 1) take an IMF bailout and suffer under less strict conditions than those imposed by the EU. 2) don’t take a bailout, and go it alone via the Argentina route with a massive crisis, more fudging of numbers, more lying to their people about costs, balances and budgets.
This referendum / MPs defecting is just internal politics. The centre right opposition wants an early election. They lost the previous election in ’09 because of their inept handling of the economic situation lead them directly to this! The protests are large and continuous, but aren’t representative of the whole population – there’s always a large ‘black bloc’ in Greek politics. Greeks inherently distrust their leaders, which is fair given they were a military dictatorship for so long. But this breeds a distrust of the system (from the Guardian link: “94% believed politicians are all or mostly corrupt, journalists 80%, the church 67%, judges 64%.) that has lead to endemic and institutionalised corruption, distrust of the system and yet and unwillingness to change the system itself. Changing governments or defaulting won’t change the structural problems they themselves are partially to blame for..
When is their society going to accept partial responsibility for the mess they’re in? George Carlin always said, you get the politicians you deserve – if you’ve a garbage society, you’ll get garbage leaders. The Greek people can complain and riot all they like (and they are entitled to), but at the end of the day, their attitude towards governance is part of the problem. Look to Ireland – got their heads down, didn’t like it, but accepted it and are now trying to get out of a problem as quickly as possible, while destroying the political parties that put them into this mess. And that’s actually bearing fruit – http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1005/breaking41.html
#7 by Alister on November 1, 2011 - 1:13 pm
Greece has deep seated problems which it has avoided for decades. One way or another the country has to change. This referendum and talk of default and devaluation is a sideshow. Devaluation is not much of a panacea these days. It hasn’t done the UK much good. Argentina is irrelevant. It has a completely different export base and when it did devalue the world’s economies were growing. No such luck for Greece now. Any short term benefits from default would likely be overwhelmed by the downsides. The only hope for Greece is that it can elect a government which ensures that the poor, the weak and the vulnerable suffer the least from what will be very hard times.
#8 by James on November 1, 2011 - 11:15 pm
Here’s more on why Argentina might not be irrelevant.
#9 by Thomas Widmann on November 1, 2011 - 1:48 pm
I’ve still to see any explanation of how Greece could practically leave the euro. Printing new notes would take months if not years, and during that time, all debt in the eurozone would move to Greece, and all savings would leave Greece, in anticipation of the inevitable devaluation. It’s not like there are separate Greek euro notes and coins that could be changed into drachmas separately from other euros. It’s probably true that Greece ought to have remained outwith the euro, but the solution now is not attempting to leave it.
#10 by James on November 1, 2011 - 2:00 pm
It took just six weeks when the Czechs and the Slovaks went their own way. And you can bet even the Greek government has a contingency plan.
#11 by Thomas Widmann on November 1, 2011 - 2:17 pm
I’m not sure, but I guess the two korunas were easier to separate because there was no certainty that one of them would be strongly devalued immediately afterwards.
However, I’m happy to be convinced that I’m wrong — if anybody can point me to a realistic plan for how to introduce a “New Drachma” in Greece, I’d be extremely interested in reading it.
#12 by shooter on November 1, 2011 - 7:42 pm
wow, very suprising opinions being forwarded here.
i had written something long and detailed but it comes down to this. if you think the debt problem greece has now is bad, wait until it has to pay in euros but is only has massively devalued korunas to pay with. it make take the completely corrupt hungarian view on the problem but i seriously doubt anyone would let them get away with it. so what we are talking here is the value of debt in the economy probablly doubling over night…yeah…should be ok though…
about argentina, one thing that hasn’t been mentioned is the massive problem with the government. everyone knows the inflation figures are massively understated (in fact, the government statistics generally are totally suspect) but what most don’t know is that the government has started handing out fines to economist who say so. more to the point, the success of the economy is basically based on soybeans price go up, farmers get massive taxes (think marginal rates near or over 100%), and government gives handouts. also, look at the latest (pathetic) attempts at import substitution. seriously, the argentinian economy is the biggest piece of shit in the world. if commodity prices decline, it will turn into greece overnight (the comparison with brazil is also highly humorous as argentina is massively reliant on brazilian demand).
overall, the referendum is one of the worst political moves possible. the comparison with argentina is actually most apt because cristina fernandez is the most populist politician amongst “credible” countries. the country is backing itself into a corner that it can’t get out from. its a great short-term strategy for politicans but a bad long-term strategy for everyone (again, if you look at argentine economic history you see this happen over and over again…politicians tell people everything is ok, reality happens, people suffer, politicians either get killed or flee).
#13 by Aidan on November 1, 2011 - 11:34 pm
Exiting the Euro would have to be combined with a near total write off of the debt – we’re already talking about writing off 50% and Greece staying in the Euro after all and that’s being deemed “excessively harsh”.
By comparison, Argentina wrote down about 2/3-3/4s of its debt, lengthened the repayment period and tied some of it to future growth.
If it does exit the Euro we’re probably talking 75% of state bonds, but that leaves the question of the large amount of private greek Euro-denominated debt. I’m not sure I know of a country that has managed to write that off, and that’s clearly going ot be a necessary step if the Greek economy is to survive after re-Drachmaisaiton.
#14 by Greig Aitken on November 1, 2011 - 9:20 pm
I’ve been wondering all day why Papandreou couldn’t have delayed this for a few days, and no answer has presented itself other than he was deeply affected by the unrest at the parades on Friday (see Mason on this). Cos surely, if he had delayed, even more of the gloss of last week’s package would have been coming off anyway – measured in the creeping downward market moves and general static – as predicted. As it is, he allows troika to say he has screwed up … things had been looking so rosy after last Thursday morning, eh, eh. On George Carlin related comments above, there’s no acknowledgement of how deep the democratic rot is now running, of how captured the systems are … and there’s this AMAZING outfit called Occupy, btw, who’re just starting to point this out. And the reference (and IMF endorsed link) to Ireland? Dear me. Try:
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2011/10/growth-through-austerity-an-irish-update/
Or just ahead of the referendum announcement was Papandreou cunningly organising a punt of Greece’s remaining cash on some put options, hence with the ensuing market fall recouping enough to miraculously save the Greek economy? Or stick it in a Greek military account in Zurich
#15 by James on November 1, 2011 - 11:16 pm
I suspect your diagnosis at the start there is bang on.
#16 by Barbarian on November 1, 2011 - 9:51 pm
I’m unsure as to whether it was a masterstroke or not.
Yes – because someone finally has the balls to tell the EU to stuff it.
No – because the markets dived and then came back up, which probably meant a few speculators made a profit.
How long has this charade being going on? How long can this topping up be justified?
#17 by Ken on November 1, 2011 - 11:03 pm
Type your comment here
I love George 😛 I’m well aware of how deep the rot is in Greece. That’s the problem. Calling for elections will do what? Re-elect the people who caused it in the first place? The Occupy protests are wonderful – I’ve been to them here – but they’re not proposing a solid tangible alternative to the current situation in Greece right now apart from “No. We’re not doing it”. What’s the alternative? Somebody point one out showing they accept they need to fundamentally change their cultural attitude towards governance. Even Carl Bildt tweeted today “I truly fail to understand what Greece intends to have a referendum about. Are there any real options?” He’s not wrong.
“And the reference (and IMF endorsed link) to Ireland? Dear me. ”
Yeh, well aware of the various problems in Ireland, and that link merely highlights one or two of them. I try not to go the usual Irish route of hyper negativity, morose doom and gloom. Reforms did need to be made (and still do) in the country – but to try and equate it to the scale of problems facing Greece is silly. The problems are not even fundamentally the same. The reaction of the people at large is telling – anger and rolling up some sleeves looking for a way out vs anger and sitting on your hands blaming everyone else.
#18 by Observer on November 1, 2011 - 11:20 pm
Agree with you 100% James. The Greeks would be liberated with a default. It would certainly be tough for them, but it’s going to be tough anyway. Endlessly bailing countries out to please the markets doesn’t benefit anyone in the countries being bailed out. This whole thing is insane.
#19 by Greig Aitken on November 1, 2011 - 11:39 pm
Even this Carl Bildt?
#20 by Ken on November 2, 2011 - 12:03 am
Type your comment here
Yeh. The same one – the guy with the past experience of being a mediator in the Balkan conflict, EU Special Envoy to the former Yugoslavia and UN Special Envoy for the Balkans – apart from being the current Foreign Minister. So he might know a little about the ins and outs of the regions politics, which is what he was commenting on. Still, he’s just one person and we’re all entitled to disagree with him at varying points.
#21 by Indy on November 2, 2011 - 8:40 am
I think it is a masterstroke simply because the Greek people ought to be able to decide what they want to happen. They must feel they are being blown this way and that, with no power over the decisions which will change their lives. So calling a referendum is an unmitigated Good Thing as far as I am concerned. The bankers can just wait for democracy to take its course.
#22 by James on November 2, 2011 - 9:00 am
Bravo! And even if his government collapses, ND will struggle to win on a “you don’t get a say” ticket.
#23 by shooter on November 2, 2011 - 1:20 pm
There is a complete misunderstanding of the linkage between economics and politics (unforunately, endemic in Scottish politics). If you give people the choice of whether they want stuff for free or they want to pay for it guess what they will pick. the problem is the difference between what is good for the individual and what is good in aggregate. giving people the choice while nice is basically a sign of a totally corrupt political system. again, the parallels with argentina couldn’t be more apt.
either way, the scale of intergration through the euro banking area is massive. so why exactly should people in germany or france pay for some feckless, corrupt Greek person’s tax breaks. indeed, why should people in slovakia a country far far poorer. to put it more bluntly, why should there be a recession in the rest of Europe because of some street cleaner in Athens on EUR60k/year. The country needs to deflate as it is woefully uncompetitive. The other matter is that the country will go from a situation where someone is basically paying its bills to one where it will have to run budget surpluses for the next ten years at least as no1 will lend to it. If you give someone the choice between pleasure or pain guess what they will choose? I would also say that the market responded negatively to the euro deal but the response to the referendum was at least twice as negative. The irish have generally done the right thing (the bank deal was terrible though) and it has been proved by companies like google continuing to invest there. can you imagine google an irish size operation in athens…thought not.
(Btw, I notice no1 has mentioned Turkey and Cyprus either. War with Turkey over Cyprus wouldn’t be a completely crazy outcome as the Greek economy will collapse when they leave the Euro and Turkey has become extremely hawkish in the region).
#24 by Indy on November 2, 2011 - 2:28 pm
I don’t think you are really considering this in the round. If the Greeks want to default that’s their choice and they will live with the consequences – just as they will live with the consequences of deciding to accept the deal. Either way it affects them more than it affects anyone else so they should be the ones to decide. It’s not about evading responsibllity for deciding what is good in aggregate, it;’s actually about placing that responsibility where it lies.
Plus every time I hear people saying that people have no choice but to do X, Y or Z it annoys me. There are always choices. They might be really really bad ones but they are there.
#25 by shooter on November 3, 2011 - 3:19 pm
wow, didn’t expect to be proved right so quickly. the economic commentators here are unbelievably lightweight.