A quick post this morning from the mists of the Yorkshire Dales to note the poll on Scottish independence in the IoS that shows slender support in favour across the UK at 39% (up 6% from the equivalent poll in May) against a preference for the union at 38% (down 4%). The Scottish subsample, a positively brittle 176 respondents, has a more pronounced gap – 49% in favour of independence and 37% against.
Now, it’s only Scotland that will get to vote in any referendum and it’d be silly to give much (if any) credence to a poll with such a high margin of error but it is interesting that in a UK context the result goes in the Nats’ favour. I’m not aware of any poll having achieved that before.
That said, stripping out the Scotland subsample must actually result in rUK being AGAINST independence but I do wonder if an unbreakable spiral is beginning to take hold on this issue across Britain.
If people south of the border don’t know much of the detail of Scottish Politics but see the SNP winning a majority here and Alex Salmond arguing for Scottish independence there, it is little wonder that more and more non-Scots start to think ‘well blinkin’ well be independent then if you want it that way’. And if that notion is messaged up to Scotland in some way, through a poll in a national newspaper say, then it can only serve to harden the growing sense that a majority may well be voting Yes in a few years time, even if ordinarily they’d be loathe to breakaway. It’s easier to leave the party when you feel unwanted after all.
Whether this battle of sentiments based on misunderstandings proves to be a war of attrition or a blessing in disguise, we can only wait and see but perhaps polls with dodgy subsamples have a bigger part to play in all of this than some people give them credit for.
#1 by JohnMcdonaldish on October 16, 2011 - 9:04 am
Or maybe what is happening can’t be “blamed” on opinion polls, suspect or not. Might be that people in Scotland are defining a “better” nation as something different from your political point of view.
It wasn’t me! It was them damn opinion polls what did it!
#2 by Jeff on October 16, 2011 - 9:30 am
Oh, absolutely. When I say polls have a part to play, it’s a very small part indeed. Scots will decide based on the merits of the arguments but the mood music, the overarching atmosphere of the moment, fuelled by polls such as these, do also have a bearing I’m sure.
#3 by The Burd on October 16, 2011 - 9:28 am
Firstly Jeff the sample size is 176. And despite the caveats over its lack of representativeness, the poll offers more than just the headline that the Independent created from it regarding support for independence in Scotland and in the rest of the UK. I shall blog separately on it to add to your piece.
#4 by Indy on October 16, 2011 - 9:33 am
We would all agree that it is the trend over time that counts with opinion polls but yeah if we keep getting ones like this it will be helpful.
Almost helpful as the other story about Coalition ministers flooding Scotland to attack the SNP. I love this line from the Herald story:
“UK ministers, including the Prime Minister David Cameron, plan to travel regularly to Scotland to push the message that “Scotland has two governmentsâ€,”
Lol. Couldn’t have asked for anything more!
#5 by Random Lurking Scotsman on October 16, 2011 - 2:40 pm
David Cameron coming to Scotland regularly to push the message that “Scotland has two governments”. I couldn’t agree with that more. Scotland does indeed have two governments.
One which was backed by a majority of those who voted and is represented all across Scotland and has broad support for its policies from the electorate, and the other, a patchwork of two parties which didn’t win that many votes or seats across Scotland and that pursues policies that very few Scottish voters support at all.
If Cameron wants to show us that, I think Alex Salmond can book some time off to read a few books and carry out some home improvements and leave the campaign for independence to Cameron, who’ll do a bang-up job in explaining the attractions of independence to the Scottish electorate.
#6 by Doug Daniel on October 16, 2011 - 4:19 pm
“Come on chaps, let’s make regular jaunts up to Scotland and tell the colonials what a jolly good job they’re all doing. But remember to remind them how frightfully awful things would be without us.”
Pingback: Why are Scots leaning towards independence? « Better Nation
#7 by David Halliday on October 16, 2011 - 12:39 pm
Jeff:
I’m no statistician so what do you make of the answers to the question “Thinking back to the general election last year, which party if any did you vote for?”. 28% say Labour and 27% SNP. In fact, it was 42% Labour and 20% for the SNP. So, either the sample was skewed to SNP voters or the respondents mistakenly reported their Scottish election voting. Does that make any difference? Or am I misunderstanding?
#8 by Doug Daniel on October 16, 2011 - 4:15 pm
The problem is not that 27% is not the same as 20%, but that 27% is not the same as 49%. So what we’re seeing here is that 22% of those in favour of independence in this poll didn’t even vote for the SNP in 2010, which helps back the point that many pro-independence commentators on this blog and others have been saying for ages: that a large appetite for independence exists outside of the SNP’s voting base.
Now, if the number of SNP voters had been 49% (or higher), that would be a different story…
#9 by An Duine Gruamach on October 16, 2011 - 4:15 pm
While it’s true that the rUK won’t get a vote (and nor should they), and that their opinions therefore are essentially (non-trivial) mood-music, the apparent decline in support for the Union in the rUK could have another effect: reducing the pool of activists and donations available to the No camp come the campaign itself.
#10 by Craig Gallagher on October 16, 2011 - 7:12 pm
I don’t necessarily believe that any decision in favour of independence will be motivated by a sense of being rejected by the rUK in Scotland. As a rule, at least in parts of England, there has long been something of a crabbit relationship between us and them, with many more than happy to see the back of us and an end to what they regard as their subsidising us. Of course, this absolutely does not speak for the majority of England, many of whom have no opinion at all or even fear the loss of Scotland to the UK, because of its implications for Tory rule at Westminster.
I found the Guardian’s podcast on devolution this week to be particularly interesting, given that they asked Welsh and Northern Irish politicians for their opinions on Scottish independence. It was fascinating to hear the way both regard it as a Scotland vs England tussle, that their own pretensions to further devolution rest with the impact of our own quest for further powers. With the exception of the way they described Orange Loyalists in Northern Ireland, the general opinion seemed to be amongst them that if that’s what Scotland wants, it should have it, which makes these poll findings particularly fascinating.
#11 by Andra on October 18, 2011 - 2:12 pm
This poll is important only in the context of what is happening in Scotland generally. If this was an isolated survey you take it for what it is, a snapshot at any one time. But…take it as the latest evidence of a trend and it’s different.
I’m old enough to remember when the SNP celebrated holding a deposit. Since then there has been a steady rise in support, both for the SNP and independence. This rise has been far from linear, in fact at times it’s like waves, advancing then retreating, but I cannot believe that it does not indicate an incoming tide which shows no sign of turning around. In recent times, to continue the maritime theme, the SNPs successes seem to have had the effect of a tidal wave and this poll is the peak of the current wave.
I’m also old enough to be able to compare (and this is my personal feelings of course) the “mood” of Joe Public up here, and I reckon he is different to the same guy during the 70s SNP surge. Joe’s nationalism in the 70s had no roots, was much more a protest vote, was generally not “committed”. He was just waiting to return to Labour. I genuinely don’t see that now. Labour lose them and they don’t come back, they are different people of a different generation. They don’t feel any kind of loyalty or identification to Labour, as I did for many years, even after turning to the SNP.