After an extended absence on my part (what do you mean, you didn’t miss me?!) due to endless PhD drafting and then holidaying, I reckoned it was time to get back on the horse. Â Figuratively speaking – given my allergy to horse hair, were I to actually do so, I’d end up in hospital. Â Anyway, I was itching to write something and about something… but it really does look like there’s nothing going on here. Â I mean, apart from the floods and the riots, the borderline homophobic parliamentary motions and the ongoing debates over what happens when (if?) Scotland becomes independent with regards currency etc. Â But you’ve covered all that. Â So what do I write about?
Well, I guess those of you who don’t have an interest in politics outside Scotland might want to look away now. Â I’ve spent the last couple of weeks in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Â Where choice is king, everything comes with peanut butter (including pretzels, which were awesome) and an ambulance call out costs you three grand.
I do love the States though. Â I love their enthusiasm for sports – college sides have 100,000-seater stadiums for their American Football teams (and graduation ceremonies). Â That’s bigger than our pro-teams. Â I love their enthusiasm for their colleges – their affinity with an education establishment where they attended lasts a lifetime (including dancing to the college fight songs at weddings!). Â Most of all, I just love their enthusiasm. Â Here we struggle to serve people with a smile – there you don’t just get told to have a nice day, its got to be a great day. Â One guy saw I was off out running (in ridiculous heat) and told me to have a “great one”. Â Enthusiasm. Â That’s something we can learn.
You wonder where I’m going with this. Â I kind of wonder too.
To politics, of course. Â We’re in a down year for elections in the States, but the race for the Republican Presidential nominee to challenge President Obama is kicking off. Â While I was on holiday they held a straw-poll for candidates in Iowa (first state to hold its caucus for candidates, scheduled for Feb 6th 2012) in which Minnesota Representative Michelle Bachmann narrowly beat out Texas Representative Ron Paul to win the non-binding poll. Â There were NINE names on the ballot paper, plus a space for a ‘write-in’, in which Texas Governor Rick Perry gained the support of 3.6%, of voters – despite not actually entering the race until the day of the poll.
So, at the moment, its a crowded field for the Republicans.  There are no fewer than FIFTEEN formally declared candidates at this point, with no real front-runner.  Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (a candidate the last time around) held that position for around four months, when the race began – and is still a top-tier candidate.  But his lead is now just 2 points over the recently-announced Rick Perry.  Michelle Bachmann’s support among social and Christian conservatives looks to have dipped a little with Perry’s involvement in the race.
When I was in the States, I took this photograph of a t-shirt:
While its George W. Bush, and its mocking Obama’s “hope” slogan from the 2008 Presidential election, it does make a point: Â A lot of what Obama promised to change hasn’t changed. Â Yes, there have been global economic conditions which have made some of his promises difficult to achieve (healthcare, for example) but there are also things he could have done and simply has not (like closing out Guantanamo Bay). Â He had a Democratic Congress for the first couple of years of his term, and it made very little difference to what he could and could not achieve in office.
The point is that this is a very winnable election for the Republicans – and that’s not something you would have expected to hear in the immediate aftermath of Obama’s election. Â But if the Republicans are going to win back the White House, they have to pick a decent candidate. Â From the current field, its difficult to see who that is. Â And even among those who are speculated to run, but haven’t yet announced, there are not any really inspiring names. Â Sarah Palin isn’t going to beat Obama – and you wouldn’t want her to even if you were a Republican. Â Ditto John Bolton, the former US Ambassador to the UN. Â I’ve seen a couple of interviews with him and he just comes across as an arrogant, for want of a better word, dickhead. Â Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would be a good bet, but given his more liberal views on some things, plus family issues, he’s unlikely to get the nomination. Â There’s even a white power advocate and former Klan wizard (David Duke) planning a presidential run. Â Which lets you know just how crazy the Republican race might get.
Anyway, I’ve got some friends in the States who might give us some on-the-ground chat about the Presidential race. Â Not that this election will have any bearing whatsoever on events in Scotland at all. Â But its an election, and we all love elections, right?
No wonder you guys didn’t miss me…
#1 by douglas clark on August 25, 2011 - 10:45 am
Malc,
Of course we’ve missed you!
Rick (the chin) Perry seems the most likely Rep candidate, see here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate Silver being a bit of a guru on all things Presidential.
Indeed Perry has the shortest odds on Paddy Power by quite a margin. Which must also mean something!
And he’s from Texas.
I think being from Texas trumps (hee, hee) being from Alaska 🙂
What more could anyone want from a Republican candidate?
#2 by Malc on August 25, 2011 - 11:04 am
Rick Perry is up in the polls at the moment but the primaries don’t start until February – and there’s a lot of water to flow under Republican bridges before then…
And I like Nate Silver’s 538 blog. Lots of good stuff come Presidential election time. He does make a good point later in that piece though – Perry probably needs to beat out the rest of the conservative candidates early to prove he’s a better bet than Romney – if he doesn’t & Romney wins New Hampshire comfortably, then this could be a contest which drags a bit longer.
Palin I’m not sure is a serious candidate (and she hasn’t officially entered the race) but if Giuliani enters, he’s more centre-right than conservative and would be a better bet than Perry in against Obama. But whether Republicans will realise that/ prioritise a win next November over ideologically conservative purity… who knows.
#3 by Malc on August 25, 2011 - 11:05 am
Oh and shucks. Its nice to be missed!
#4 by Doug Daniel on August 25, 2011 - 11:31 am
“I love their enthusiasm for their colleges – their affinity with an education establishment where they attended lasts a lifetime (including dancing to the college fight songs at weddings!). Most of all, I just love their enthusiasm. Here we struggle to serve people with a smile – there you don’t just get told to have a nice day, its got to be a great day. One guy saw I was off out running (in ridiculous heat) and told me to have a “great oneâ€. Enthusiasm. That’s something we can learn.”
I know it’s not really the main crux of your post, but I have to disagree with you here, Malc. Maybe it’s just because I felt a bit let down by both the unis I went to (Aberdeen and RGU) and therefore didn’t feel much affinity with them, but I always viewed the kind of people who wear their uni jumpers – particularly after leaving – as being rather odd. I think we perhaps do have this sort of affinity with educational establishments in Scotland, but more towards secondary schools than universities.
As for the service you get in America, I actually find it quite sickening, and it’s these type of mannerisms that put me off even stepping foot in America as I think that within 5 minutes of arriving, I would need to either punch someone, or burst my eardrums with a pen. I worked with a guy who spent a year in America for uni, and when he came back, he was always saying “have a great day now” to people, and it just sounded weird. I’ve served Americans who have said it as they’re leaving, and to be honest, it just sounds a bit false. It’s just not normal for people to seem so cheery all the time. Nah, I’m quite happy with our dour, cynical manner, especially in Aberdeen. But then again, I’m the kind of person who sees someone putting a lot of effort into something, and dismisses them as a “try-hard”.
#5 by Malc on August 25, 2011 - 11:51 am
I think the last sentence sums up most of Scotland Doug. I’ll unashamedly admit to being an American lover. I think there are two ways the “have a great day” thing can go – you can either see it as false (which, lets face it, seems to be our default setting – cynicism) or you can embrace the attitude and think that its nice people are nice. Of course in some cases its because they are hoping that pleasantness will equate to a better tip… but even so, I appreciate their going that extra mile. So like I say – enthusiasm is something I admire in Americans, because its sure as hell something we don’t experience that much of here.
I still wear my uni stuff. Though I am technically still at uni. But then I am a bit weird. And my PhD supervisor agrees with you (not that I’m weird, just that the American way is a bit “High School Musical”). But I like it – its a part of your identity. Perhaps because we get bogged down in nationalities over here (and issue that, by and large, the Americans don’t have) we don’t look for identities beyond that. Whereas being a Gopher or a Jayhawk or a Gator is something which stays with you after you leave – and becomes part of your identity. I don’t know – I kind of like being part of a wider community that being an alumnus brings. But then, like you say – I’m weird for a Scot.
#6 by Daniel J on August 25, 2011 - 1:27 pm
I think our Universities would kill for the way some American students look back at their education and in particular the alumni donations. While I was studying abroad there was an alumni weekend and in the entrance to the cafeteria there was a running tally of each ‘class’ and their donations. I believe the class of 71′ or suchlike was leading the way at about $1 million dollars. Aberdeen University (which has 15,000 students to that colleges 1,500) raised a similar amount from ALL of it’s alumni in one year.
One thing I will contest is that the friendliness is false, I’ve met loads of very helpful people, even in big cities like New York. Including for example a homeless guy who would accept nothing more than a cup of coffee for helping me to my hostel in Harlem.
#7 by Malc on August 25, 2011 - 1:34 pm
I don’t think the friendliness is false – we were shown nothing but incredible hospitality from people we had never met before (hospitality which was doubled when it came out that we were Scots, I should point out!). I was also disputing Doug’s claim. However, in some cases – perhaps in service folk (waitresses, etc) it may be a little exaggerated. Though it (friendliness) seems to be much more of a part of the service provided than over here.
#8 by Daniel J on August 25, 2011 - 1:57 pm
Don’t worry I know you weren’t saying it was false!
Politics wise American politics has never been my thing but Jon Huntsman seems competent but this probably isn’t his time, too moderate & associated with Obama.
Personally I’d imagine the democrats are hoping for a complete crackpot to win the GOP nomination…
#9 by douglas clark on August 25, 2011 - 11:53 am
Malc @ 2,
Yeah well, Guiliani had better get his tactics sorted out a bit better than last time. I agree about the mama bear, I don’t think Palin is a serious candidate either.
This probably doesn’t work exactly, but I get the general impression that the tea party faction have roughly the same electability as a certain Mr Michael Foot once had. The problem is the one you mentioned in your last sentence, whither purity or power?
#10 by Barbarian on August 25, 2011 - 8:30 pm
Great article!
#11 by Malc on August 25, 2011 - 10:15 pm
Sarcastic enthusiasm. I guess I asked for that. Like your style though.
#12 by Andy on August 26, 2011 - 1:05 am
Malc-
You seem to have a good understanding of what is going on with the Republican primary. As one of those Americans you said would comment, I would just like to put out there that the race is far from over. I would even put good odds on at least one or two quality candidates entering the race.
It is becoming very clear that this election is not going to be like 2008. Pres. Obama does not have a clear path to victory (unless a terrible candidate is selected to run for the Republicans). With approval at an all time low, Obama is going to need to convince the electorate that he has America going in the right direction. With the economy falling apart and unemployment at higher levels than when he assumed office, the right opponent has a great chance to beat Obama. The old question we in America ask when it comes to elections, ‘is my life better than it was four years ago?’ The answer will come in just over one year.
And, It was great to have Malcolm in America. If the people of Scotland don’t want him, we will gladly welcome him back to America.
#13 by Malc on August 26, 2011 - 8:33 am
Quality candidates? Giuliani would probably be worthy of that descriptor, but I’m struggling to think of any others. Got any former AGs or Treasury Secretarys who might run? But I agree – if the Republicans pick the right candidate, this is an election they will likely win. But are the party smart enough for that?!
Oh and thanks. Already plotting the return trip.
#14 by douglas clark on August 26, 2011 - 7:48 am
Err, Andy…
We lurve the Malc.
However it would be cool, as you Americans say, for you to nominate a person for you Republicans to vote for.
Who’s it gonna be? Who is going to be your late entryist?
I’d love to know.
The jury is out, but not around here….
#15 by Malc on August 26, 2011 - 8:34 am
Awww shucks. We like a big love-fest at Better Nation. It makes such a change from all the tension when we mention the constitution!
#16 by Ken on August 26, 2011 - 12:05 pm
Good article.
“There are no fewer than FIFTEEN formally declared candidates at this point, with no real front-runner.”
Which is probably a good thing to me, as the front runners this early on never normally win. It’s usually those who are mid table or who don’t have the media attention/saturation that don’t fail to live up to the hype. It wasn’t until very late on before the 1992 primaries that Clinton actually became a front runner if I recall….
The GOP haven’t yet fielded an electable candidate but Perry or Romney will probably clinch a nomination.
Bachmann – too crazy to attract anyone outside of her base
Gingrich – might pull through but his staff has abandoned him and he’s actually heavily in debt
Huntsman – a moderate, and former Obama Ambassador, which means he’s DOA in the primaries
Ron Paul – too Libertarian for the GOP
Perry – the “great hope” has already made so many comments that will turn off any moderate voter: Ben Bernanke (Chairman of Fed Reserve) is treasonous; abolish direct elections of Senators; allow Congress to overrule a Supreme Court decision by 2/3rds majority etc.
There’s always a former Governor of Alaska though……
#17 by Malc on August 26, 2011 - 2:00 pm
I’ll eat one of James’ special spaghetti hats if Sarah Palin is the Republican nominee. She has name & face recognition… but that’s not necessarily a good thing in her case! Agree – at the moment – it looks like Perry or Romney, neither of which is a particularly inspired choice.
#18 by Andy on August 26, 2011 - 1:33 pm
First off- Rudy Giuliani will never be the Republican candidate for President. He has a lot of personal history that works against him, among other things. Also, he is a liberal when it comes to social issues. There is no way the republican electorate would nominate him in the current political climate.
As far as other candidates. The first would be New Jersey Gov. Chris Christy. He has made a name for himself in recent years for being a ‘tell it like it is’ politician. He is not worried what people think of him, and he has stood up to some major labor unions in America and won. He has shown himself to be a leader who will make tough decision. But, he does not have a long political history, so that could work against him.
I don’t know what people reading this think about unions, but one big fight right now is how much power unions have. In short…unions in America have a lot of power. Currently, there is a fight going on as to where the line needs to be drawn in these tough economic times.
And one other candidate who I think will jump into the race, but I see him as a long shot to enter right now is Representative Paul Ryan. He is the Chair of the Budget Committee in Congress and is seen as one of the smartest men in Washington. He wrote a comprehensive budget this year that would have redesigned the American system and saved a lot of money. But, with Obama as President and Democrats controlling the Senate…it was dead on arrival. If he does not run this year, look for him to run down the line. He would be a change of pace from past presidents, since he has been very involved in budget talks in recent years and he knows the American budget like no one else. The biggest problem he faces is the political climate. He is not a flashy guy. He would not excite people. Well, he wouldn’t excite the average Republican that is. He is too smart I would dare say for most people.
So, keep an eye on Paul Ryan and Chris Christy. There is a chance one or both will run.
#19 by Malc on August 26, 2011 - 2:03 pm
Yeah – I know about Giuliani’s history, which makes it unlikely he’d get the nomination. But the couple of polls which put his name against Obama’s gave Giuliani the lead – something that is not the case with any of the other Republican candidates. But they’d never be that smart, right?
Christy I know of, and I think he’ll get in the race. Ryan I don’t know much about – but I’ll keep an eye out for.