In a prolonged bout of Twitter-based drama this morning, the candidates for the vacant Edinburgh council seat were eliminated one by one until only two remained, the SNP candidate Alasdair Rankin and the unliklely figure of Iain McGill, holding onto first place from round one. Alasdair won out, by a closer margin than perhaps expected even at that late stage, and the rest, as they say is history, or has been for the past 8 hours or so.
The voting went as shown below and, of most interest (to me at least) is how the votes broke as candidates were eliminated:
Round 1
Con 837
SNP 797
Lab 682
Green 494
Ind 394
LD 251 (eliminated)
Round 2
Con 904 (67 votes from LDs)
SNP 825 (28 votes from LDs)
Lab 716 (34 votes from LDs)
Green 576 (82 votes from LDs)
Ind 402 (8 votes from LDs) (eliminated)
Round 3
Con 1043 (139 votes from Ind)
SNP 893 (68 votes from Ind)
Lab 745 (29 votes from Ind)
Green 635 (59 votes from Ind) (eliminated)
Round 4
Con 1110 (67 votes from Greens)
SNP 1084 (191 votes from Greens)
Lab 968 (223 votes from Greens) (eliminated)
Round 5
SNP 1368 (284 votes from Labour) – ELECTED
Con 1264 (154 votes from Labour)
So pretty rotten luck for the Tories really but a lot can be learned from the above, albeit from one Council ward with a very low turnout:
The Lib Dems are in line for a proper hiding in next year’s local elections and we can expect defections to continue. Indeed, there is a local by-election in my neck of the woods in London and the Green candidate is, you guessed it, a former Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem vote continues to transfer well to the Greens but does not transfer quite as well as expect to the SNP, only 28 votes going to the Nats in the second round after the Lib Dem candidate was eliminated. I found this quite surprising to be honest. Indeed, it does seem to be the case that the Lib Dems remaining loyal to the Lib Dems are at the more extreme wings of the party – the lentil munchers and the orange bookers (to put it more than a little bit crudely!)
The Labour vote fell more heavily to the Conservatives than I expected too, 284 votes to the left(ish) SNP and a sizeable 154 votes to the right(er) Tories. This is perhaps a sign that more typical lefties and would-be Labour voters have abandoned the red rosette from the first vote and may well symoblise the cross-border identity crisis that Labour is currently suffering from.
The main outcome to take from this by-election though is the simple fact that the SNP won and that Edinburgh Council is safe. However, given the SNP largely stood on an anti-tram platform, does this send the death knell of the project? Is that what Edinburgh voted for yesterday? That’s how I read it, particularly with the financially conservative Conservatives doing so well. Only time will tell of course whether the SNP intends to scrap the project once and for all and, I suspect, that decision may be delayed until after 2012.
NB – James has a longer, deeper and frankly better post on the by-election at STV Edinburgh.
http://local.stv.tv/edinburgh/news/22978-the-edinburgh-city-centre-by-election-what-have-we-learnt/
#1 by Barbarian on August 19, 2011 - 8:29 pm
An interesting result, despite the low turnout. It proves that local issues have a major impact to play with the council elections next year. Saying that, the Lib Dem vote has been clobbered by national issues and next year will almost certainly see them hammered, with a real possibility of getting wiped out.
The SNP have nothing to crow about. Their candidate has effectively done an Ed Milliband and squeezed in at the last minute. While it certainly does not mean the SNP will struggle next year, it does raise the question as to whether voters really are crying out for independence.
The SNP will be glad to retain the seat, but the Lib Dems are in very serious trouble.
#2 by Steve on August 19, 2011 - 10:00 pm
I know it’s a bit of a cliché coming from someone like me, but why are we surprised when Labour voters in a rich area in a rich city like Edinburgh give their second votes to tories?
If I were in Labour, I’d be very concerned that the social democratic vote in Scotland has gone to the SNP and Labour have been left behind.
#3 by Ross on August 19, 2011 - 11:56 pm
I loved the Tory reaction on Twitter at the final round win for Rankin. He won and he won democratically, they need to accept it.
I expect the Lib Dems will come out of next year’s election with a small handful of councillors scraping in (and ending up in a similar situation to the green group this term but, you know, more depressed) but where those seats go is anyone’s guess. All parties stand to gain and there certainly is a lot on offer from a party so utterly doomed that feeling sympathy for them isn’t irrational.
#4 by Jeff on August 20, 2011 - 8:17 am
Yes, I feel sorry for Lib Dem councillor’s predicament. I guess all they can do is come out aggressively championing what they have done and what they intend to do. That’s what the Ed candIdate and his team seemed to do and good on them, just a bit too soon to reap much reward from the effort. As will 2012 be I suspect.
No shame in defecting and certainly no shame in fighting to the bitter end.
#5 by Dr William Reynolds on August 20, 2011 - 7:55 am
This seems like a very unusual council ward where at least four parties have a chance.Prior to the Liberal Democrat collapse it was a five seat marginal.While the SNP might not have anything to crow about (As Barbarian suggests) a majority of 104 votes over the second placed candidate is quite healthy under the circumstances.
This pr electoral system is always likely to result in the second placed candidate feeling cheated if they got more first prefernce votes.The SNP candidate in two earlier by-elections in Angus and Highland Region got more first preference votes but lost out when second preference votes were transferred.Unlike first past the post (where winner takes all) you can never be sure of the outcome,especially with low turnout.I can understand the disapointment of a second placed candidate who got more first preference votes.For that reason I am personally delighted ,that on this occassion,the cards shuffled around in favour of the SNP candidate on this occassion.
The collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote does suggest that they will struggle during the council elections in 2012.This council ward in central Edinburgh may not be typical,but the result does provide more evidence that many Liberal voters may have voted Labour in May this year,while labour voters were going to the SNP.There does appear to be a lot of vote switching in all directions.We live in interesting times.
#6 by Gaz on August 21, 2011 - 4:34 pm
Nothing for the SNP to crow about? Winning in any circumstance is always something to ‘crow’ about.
And winning in these circumstances is definitely worth ‘crowing’ about. This result would have been unthinkable prior to 2007.
For a party that has been running Scotland (mostly in minority) and in coalition in Edinburgh since then to increase its vote when there were so many credible contenders for it to drift to is a remarkable achievement.
We hear from opposition parties all the time that the administration in Edinburgh is a disaster and that the SNP has been arrogant and picking fights since their re-election at Holyrood.
So, with the exception of the resigning councillor being involved in some kind of financial scandal, it is surely difficult to imagine more favourable circumstances for the opposition to beat the SNP.
Either the SNP have just won a fantastic victory or they have been performing well in council and government.
The SNP won and it’s good to see that the unionist denial is still in full swing.