One of the few strong attractions of independence for me is the chance to backpedal on our island’s collective delusions of grandeur and to better reflect Scottish thinking in our policies – that we don’t rule the world with either a carrot or a stick. I did a calculation in a recent blog post that if the UK reduced spending on defence to Scandinavian levels, putting confidence in the UN/Nato, then we would save £24.4bn a year. Scotland’s share of that saving would presumably be around £2.4bn each year.
So I was initially dismayed by the SNP’s reaction to the closure of Leuchars and Kinloss as air bases. We pay too much for Defence relative to other nations of our size and we can’t have it both ways, we can’t seek to save money from no longer being the world’s policeman while protesting about cuts in Defence. Maybe this ‘grudge and grievance’ charge against the SNP stacks up after all.
However, that dismay lifted when I read Jennifer Dempsie’s excellent piece in the Scotland on Sunday. Jennifer makes a compelling argument in favour of a Scottish Army in light of the disproportionate level of cuts and under-spend that Scotland has suffered via the Defence Budget in the past decade.
If people are blinkered to make comparisons between Scotland and England when there’s a whole wide world out there then I for one am equally guilty in regularly citing Scandinavian countries as the perfect place for Scotland to copy, though recent events alone show that they are not insulated from the most unimaginable of horrors. On defence spending however I do believe that they have the right balance in terms of GDP spend and how safe the citizens seem to feel, particularly given how likely (or not likely) an attack on the peaceful Scandinavians would be. Would Scotland be as at risk of a repeat of the Glasgow Airport attacks if it was visibly moving away from the imperialist Britannia of old? We can’t know for sure but there are further benefits that would accrue from such a move.
The UK spends 2.7% of GDP on defence while Sweden spends 1.2%, Norway 1.6% and Denmark 1.4%. Jennifer stated in her article that “the Royal Norwegian Air Force operates more than 117 aircraft from seven airbases, the Royal Danish Air Force, which operates more than 111 aircraft from three airbases, and the Royal Swedish Air Force, which operates more than 187 aircraft from seven airbases.”
Scotland paid too high a price for forays into Iraq and Afghanistan without a sizeable Allied force and Scotland still pays too high a price for holding nuclear weapons in our waters. The numbers above prove beyond reasonable doubt that we can operate more than one measly air base in an independent Scotland if we rearranged our priorities away from playing the world like a board game, away from army boys wanting ever shinier toys, to a more peaceable, Scandinavian model where we involve ourselves in foreign missions in lower numbers and with a broader European/global consensus as to when action is necessary, while still maintaining a strong proud record of air defence and knowledge.
Based on a Scandinavian model, a Scottish defence budget would be less than the Scottish share of a UK budget and consequently would provide hundreds of millions of change leftover after keeping Leuchars and Kinloss as the air bases that the local community wants them to be.
With the debate around independence bizarrely focussing on Britishness in recent weeks, leading to Pete Wishart’s welcome rebuttal on Better Nation the other day, I can only hope that the public doesn’t lose sight of the facts and figures that shows what the pros and cons of a separate Scotland actually are.
#1 by Indy on July 25, 2011 - 2:17 pm
I think as a starting off point we need a military capability which is capable of defending our own land, sea and air space – including the North Sea oil installations and whatever future infrastructure will be put in place to deliver renewable energy. That would include the proposed North Sea supergrid when it comes to fruition. Arguably at present we are not fully equipped to do that.
We would of course save a lot of money from no longer contributing towards the cost of Trident or its replacement.
#2 by Daniel J on July 26, 2011 - 7:16 pm
Who precisely would we be defending land, sea and air from? How we define that creates our whole security strategy.
#3 by Richard Thomson on July 25, 2011 - 2:42 pm
I have something due to appear in next month’s Scots Independent arguing a very similar case.
#4 by Douglas McLellan on July 25, 2011 - 2:59 pm
I find it very hard to get exercised about where defence bases are and why. While I understand that each local MP/MSP needs to shout loudly about “local jobs” & “the local community” I did have a laugh at the woman who is the chair of Leuchars Community Council basically admitting that she didnt want the barracks put there as squaddies are more downmarket than RAF Officers.
In an independent Scotland (if we get that far) I do think that there needs to be a Scottish Military Force but it would be a lot smaller than say Norway (their GDP is about £200bn more than ours I think).
But I cant get my head around the SNP complaining about something they dont want in Scotland – the UK armed forces – due to the fact that they dont want to be in the UK. The recent debates around what independence actually means has raised the suggestion that Westminster would (and some on here and elsewhere say *should*) maintain and share a military presence in this country. For the life of me I cant see why.
If I am honest I dont see the point of even trying to calculate Scotland’s defence underspend. Has there been some military Barnett formula that I havent noticed before? Surely defence spending should be a wee bit more thought through than basic percentages of population, GDP, tax income and the like?
#5 by Richard Thomson on July 25, 2011 - 3:27 pm
“In an independent Scotland (if we get that far) I do think that there needs to be a Scottish Military Force but it would be a lot smaller than say Norway (their GDP is about £200bn more than ours I think).
But I cant get my head around the SNP complaining about something they dont want in Scotland – the UK armed forces – due to the fact that they dont want to be in the UK.â€
Douglas – surely you answer your own question. An independent Scotland will have armed forces, much of which will be made up from our current contribution in terms of personnel and equipment which Scottish taxes will have contributed towards. The fact that they are ‘British’ forces right now doesn’t preclude them from becoming ‘Scottish’ in the event of independence – we’re not going to be starting out with nothing.
“The recent debates around what independence actually means has raised the suggestion that Westminster would (and some on here and elsewhere say *should*) maintain and share a military presence in this country. For the life of me I cant see why.â€
One of the rationales for union way back when, at least from an English perspective, was the need for security on its northern border. You can interpret this as the SNP offering a pragmatic way to soothe the fears of defence planners who might oppose independence on the grounds of what it might mean for the defence of rUK. It also shows up the lie of independence being the same as ‘isolation’.
“If I am honest I dont see the point of even trying to calculate Scotland’s defence underspend. Has there been some military Barnett formula that I havent noticed before? Surely defence spending should be a wee bit more thought through than basic percentages of population, GDP, tax income and the like?â€
Well, quite. However, in the context of the current debate, it’s worth pointing out that significantly less is spent on personnel and procurement in Scotland than we contribute pro-rata. It shows quite neatly that while an independent Scotland would almost certainly not spend its defence budget in the same way as the UK MoD, it could certainly afford to spend every penny and more currently being spent in Scotland on defence if it so chose.
#6 by Douglas McLellan on July 25, 2011 - 4:54 pm
I dont fully agree with the idea that there will be a large transfer of soldiers from UK to Scotland although there may be a fair few. Not every solider based in Scotland or in a Scottish regiment is Scottish (and the % is getting smaller as fewer Scots sign up).
I am far less convinced that you will see those soldiers being able to transfer the bulk of their equipment as well. This argument that we paid our taxes so we should get some stuff is being applied to everything. As some point we are going to notice that we do get a lot of money sent back to Scotland as well which has been spent on different things. Did Scottish money go on buying those arms or free prescriptions for all?
The need for security for the UKs northern border has been slowly declining for years. Whilst I can see the need for a radar station or two and perhaps even shared facilitates at one air base but that is about it. Why do we need so many airbases anyway? Two has to be enough to give us peacetime air coverage? And we dont need every decades old army base either.
I dont actually mind that defence spending is not pro-rata. Pro-rata spending gets in the way of efficiency and gets in the way of proper needs based planning. I dont disagree with the fact that if Scotland were independent then it can spend what it can afford on Scottish defence budgets. I just dont get the hoo-ha about current spending.
#7 by Richard Thomson on July 25, 2011 - 5:24 pm
“Did Scottish money go on buying those arms or free prescriptions for all?”
The British state has capital assets and liabilities which would be divided upon independence. Some, like oil and gas, will be attributed geographically. Others, like shares of overseas properties, require a pro-rata division.
Military hardware just happens to be one of those assets to be divided pro-rata. Past revenue expenditure on healthcare such as for free prescriptions, on the other hand, would not.
You could, I suppose, argue that there are capital assets in the health service like hospital buildings or MRI scanners which would require division. I suspect you’d just end up doing a lot of number crunching only to find that the split was already pretty equal.
“The need for security for the UKs northern border has been slowly declining for years.”
Indeed it has – another reason why the union makes less sense today than it once might have. It doesn’t mean that the prospect of some kind of defence co-operation shouldn’t be held out, though.
I can think of at least 3 installations which Whitehall defence planners might be rather anxious to retain access to in the event of Scottish Independence, at least in the short term – assuming of course that they’ve thought that far ahead.
#8 by Douglas McLellan on July 25, 2011 - 7:36 pm
There is a certain logic to what you say and in an ideal world where everything lines up as you want it you may even be right. I dont think that will happen though. Defence spending may be divided up pro-rata so equipment might be passed on to us but then so might the debt of RBS which, as a mostly Scottish company, means a lot of debt to service. I would say that MRI scanners are not subject to division as that is a devolved spend. My point is that the devolved spend + currently reserved welfare payments are reasonably close to what an independent Scotland could raise via taxes. There is not much wiggle room.
Short-term access to installations is one thing. Assuming a long-term partnership is another.
#9 by Jeff on July 25, 2011 - 3:37 pm
For me you are coming from this at the wrong angle Douglas and it’s less about the SNP not wanting UK soldiers in Scotland (which is flawed anyway because Scottish soldiers are UK soldiers, for the moment at least). For me, the issue is about value for money. You are correct that the Defence Budget is separate to Barnett but that is why we are getting increasingly shortchanged.
If we are getting less return from the UK Defence budget in terms of jobs and air bases then that’s worth challenging. It’s a bit like the BBC holding most jobs in London when we all pay the license fee equally. The benefits (jobs, opportunities, local economy improvement) should be spread evenly; not just in London.
#10 by Douglas McLellan on July 25, 2011 - 5:08 pm
“For me you are coming from this at the wrong angle Douglas”
Very probably.
Are we really getting short-changed though? We pay our taxes. We get the Scottish block grant. We spend our money as we wish. Clearly, defence is a reserved issue. So why *should* it be spent in Scotland. Obviously some of it is unwelcome to some (I dont mind the Trident subs here, causes me zero angst). There are many practical arguments about having some of the defence spend in Scotland but I dont get why there should be a level of proportionality in relation to what the rest of the UK gets.
What is defence spending for – the military objectives of the UK Government of the day or some form of neutral distribution of the taxes raised?
The BBC analogy is an interesting one. How much should be spent in each area of the nation and each area of peoples interest? Can a spend of an organisation like that even come close to matching some kind of income/expenditure balance. If license fee was split to where it was raised then BBC Natural History unit would not be able to show the world how to make the best, class leading, natural world documentaries.
#11 by Indy on July 25, 2011 - 5:32 pm
But we are constanttly told that Scotland receives a higher share of spending on health – and that is regularly used as an argument that Scotland is subsidised. Yet hardly anyone is aware that we receive a much lower share of spending on defence.
It’s about consistency as much as anything else. If we are subsidised by England in terms of health spending then we also subsidise England in terms of defence spending (as well as broadcasting and other areas)
#12 by Douglas McLellan on July 25, 2011 - 7:46 pm
You may be right but I’ve read the GERS and it states that the UK Government spent £62bn in Scotland. It also states that Scotland (including oil revenues in the Scottish boundary) raised £48.1bn.
As a nation we are spending more than we earn. Now the UK is doing this as well so I am not saying automatically that it is a bad thing. But I am saying that it is hard to see where we are subsidising any spending in England.
#13 by Richard Thomson on July 26, 2011 - 9:31 am
Since the Scottish deficit as a share of GDP is 6.8%, compared with the equivalent UK figure of 7.6%, we’re certainly not spending as much over and above what we earn as is the UK as a whole.
Ironically, this is one of the reasons why the actual defence spending figure is important. GERS allocates a pro-rata share to Scotland when nothing of the kind takes place – which means that even going by the official ONS figures such as GERS, perceptions of how much the UK government is spending in Scotland, even amongst the dilligent souls who bother to read such publications, will be off the mark from the outset.
If you factored in the actual defence spending taking place within Scotland, that deficit figure would be closer to 5%.
#14 by Douglas McLellan on July 26, 2011 - 3:48 pm
Thats a fair point and will helps my understanding more of the true Scottish economic position but we aren’t subsidising any spend in the rest of the UK.
#15 by Indy on July 26, 2011 - 10:36 am
We are certainly subsidising spending on defence and broadcasting and other areas where government spending is centralised in the south east – put simply we pay in more than we get back. But most people don’t know that. On the other hand they do know – because they are told ad nauseum – that Scotland receives higher health spending per head than England, a fact which is used to support the argument that Scotland is subsidised in every way.. It creates a false impression and is one which we need to answer whether we want to or not. Personally I think these kinds of financial transaction debates are pretty sterile and also pointless – not least because the statistics which are bandied about can only tell us about the financial position of Scotland within the wider UK economy, they can’t really tell us anything about independence. Nonetheless the subsidy argument is one that we have to continue to rebut whenever it is made otherwise it looks as though we are accepting it.
#16 by Douglas McLellan on July 26, 2011 - 9:40 pm
I agree that the debate does not give a clear indication about the true financial position of Scotland post independence I totally disagree that we subsidise defence and broadcast spending. There are no figures that back that up unless you break down all spending streams. If those spending streams were broken down it would be clear that more areas of spending in Scotland are “subsidised” than those areas of spending where Scotland “subsidises” spending elsewhere in the UK.
We cannot claim to subsidise one area of spending in the UK when the UK subsidises a different area of spending in Scotland.
And I have seen no figure that shows we, in total, get back less than we put in.
#17 by Indy on July 27, 2011 - 9:10 am
There are figures – google Angus Robertson defence spending.
But I agree that it is not as simple as dividing the subsidy between Scotland and the rest of the UK or even England because there are cross-subsidies between different parts of England.
But on something like broadcasting it is pretty simple to work it out. Take the number of license fees paid and then the amount spent by the BBC in Scotland. If Scottish license fee payers pay more money than is spent by the BBC in Scotland – which they do – then they are subsidising spending elsewhere.
#18 by Richard Thomson on July 27, 2011 - 9:31 am
I’m not stalking you Douglas (honest), but I have to correct one thing here – your apparent assumption that spending above UK average levels in any way way indicates receipt of subsidy.
London, even leaving aside ‘unidentifiable’ expenditure which is classed as expenditure for the benefit of the entire UK, receives a greater share of spending than does Scotland. It also happens to be one of the ‘regions’ of the UK which, excluding the effects of UK borrowing, contributes proportionately more in taxes per head than it has spent on it in return (the others being the South East, East Anglia and Scotland).
I’m leaving aside the fact that this is skewed by the number of corporate headquarters which report their profits within London. However, consider some of the less wealthy regions like the East Midlands or South West of England, which both receive levels of identifiable spending significantly below the UK average.
Does the fact that the East Midlands, with its comparatively low tax base, receives a lower level of public spending mean that it is subsidising London? Of course it doesn’t. That’s not to say the funding distribution within England is fair, but the issue of being ‘subsidised’ or not does require a breakdown of spending lines and accurate information on tax receipts – areas where GERS, despite some big methodological improvements of late, is still deficient due to the lack of direct statistical information on the Scottish economy.
On a point of fact re defence and broadcasting – Scotland receives a lower than pro-rata share of defence spending, while BBC Scotland’s budget at c £160m is lower than the c. £250m raised in the licence fee. Obviously, that pays for a lot of national services too, but it seems pretty intuitive that broadcasting is one area where the nations and regions subsidise activity in the metropolis. I make no comment on whether this is a good or a bad thing.
“And I have seen no figure that shows we, in total, get back less than we put in.â€
Look again at GERS. Scotland, with 8.5% of the UK population is attributed an as we know exaggerated 9.3% of UK public spending; contributes 9.4% of the UK’s tax take and has a lower level of debt as a %age of GDP than the UK as a whole. The only way we are getting back more than we put in is when you count borrowing, which by no objective measure can be regarded as a resource transfer from the UK to Scotland in the context of a debate about who contributes and receives what.
#19 by Andra on July 25, 2011 - 3:22 pm
Where do NATO and the UN resources come from if it’s not from their own members. The UK makes the second largest contribution to the NATO effort in Afghanistan and Libya – simply because we are one of the biggest members but partly because other countries have hardly anything to offer.
I fear that in independent Scotland would offer very little to world security – always on the assumption that somebody else would do the job. We’d all be sitting here watching Gadaffi beat up his people. I can’t see Scots rushing off to help like some did during the Spanish civil war.
We can’t just sit at the top end of our isolated island and think “we’re ok” and “it’s someone else’s problem”.
#20 by Indy on July 25, 2011 - 4:43 pm
That’s a very insular point of view.
#21 by Richard Lucas on July 25, 2011 - 4:00 pm
‘independent Scotland would offer very little to world security’
Funny, I see it precisely the other way round. As seperate countries, Scotland and the remnant of the UK could probably assist in peace-keeping missions. However, the disappearance of the UK would prevent British politicians strutting and posturing in the Blair fashion, thus improving the prospect of a peaceful world.
#22 by Lost Highlander on July 25, 2011 - 9:05 pm
The UK goverment closed Kinloss when they cancelled the Nimrods. Funny thing is that we now no longer have the ability to defend those Trident submarines. And it saved only a few million pounds as the money was already spent on those aircraft. Of course we also lost all that sub hunting expertise some of it to the USA and we are now contemplating having to buy US aircraft to replace that lost capability.
Traditionally Scotland provided more manpower to the UKs armed forces than our population should have but that was down to the link between regiments and recruiting areas. This golden link has been watered down and broken. Scotlands share of MOD funding has reduced and reduced. The recent announcements by the Goverment has shown a complete lack of care about this. And to be honest it has been a fault of succesive goverments.
A good example is the plans for Edinburgh. The idea to sell the current barracks there and rebuild south of the city may make some financial sense but it cares not a shot about the soldiers who serve. Soldiers have families and this makes no sense for them and training becomes a real issue they have no access to there training areas.
We currently do not have enough Barracks space in the UK to have the whole British army return. Certainly in a future independent Scotland we will need to build more military facilities just to house those soldiers we currently have.
#23 by Angus McLellan on July 26, 2011 - 2:14 am
Before we start worrying about spending X% of GDP, or some nebulous proportionate share of UK spending or manpower gets embedded in the collective consciousness as an appropriate target, it might be better to ask some more fundamental questions such as “what would the armed forces be for?”. If the answer is “stay at home, train, patrol the EEZ and do the odd occasional bit of peacekeeping”, or “do like Ireland” in short, you’d need a different military than if the answer included regular participation in disaster relief in Africa and elsewhere, chasing pirates off Somalia, or – perhaps not so popular, but … – taking part in UN-mandated “peace enforcement” missions.
Whatever the answer, the UK has a number of military capabilities which seem quite unnecessary for an independent Scotland. There are more than the two mentioned below, but these represent capabilities which are particularly expensive to acquire and maintain.
Trident is easy, but how about the other nuclear submarines or even submarines in general? They are costly and really have only two settings: war or peace. Not so much use in peacekeeping then, or even “peace enforcement”, and certainly not in peacetime missions like disaster relief, showing the flag, chasing pirates or patrolling the EEZ.
And what about fighter aircraft like the Typhoon? They cost far more to buy, pound for pound, than Beluga caviar. They’ll cost perhaps twice as much as that again to keep flying over their lifetime. The last time the RAF made much use of the USP of the manned fighter – shooting down other aircraft – was nearly 30 years ago. An expensive luxury, no?
#24 by Alexander Belic on July 26, 2011 - 8:39 am
An interesting article Jeff, I would however make two points.
“The UK spends 2.7% of GDP on defence while Sweden spends 1.2%, Norway 1.6% and Denmark 1.4%. Jennifer stated in her article that “the Royal Norwegian Air Force operates more than 117 aircraft from seven airbases, the Royal Danish Air Force, which operates more than 111 aircraft from three airbases, and the Royal Swedish Air Force, which operates more than 187 aircraft from seven airbases.â€
When you strip out the £20bn spent on Trident from the £57.424bn defence budget you’d be left with a defence budget of about 1.7% GDP which isn’t a huge amount more than Norway as a percentage, although Scotland’s share would be about £3.7bn which is about half of Norway’s spend in actual money, but is inline with Finland’s.
Secondly, you point out that Denmark and Norway have seven airbases each while Fox has deemed Scotland is only worthy of one, but what you don’t mention is that Denmark and Norway both have conscription, so there are about 30,000 new troops enlisted every year.
#25 by Dr William Reynolds on July 26, 2011 - 9:34 am
Many small independent nations make a contribution to world peace.they also have a military capacity based on their needs.I would expect the Scottish defence capacity would be similar to the Scandanavian model but based on a calculation of need.I am neutral about NATO membership and there is a diversity of feelings about that in Scandanavia.My wifes country of Finland is not a member of NATO,while Norway is a member.
It is also very likely that an independent Scotland would not seek to invade or threaten anyone,but I believe that there are a lot more attractive things about independence than Jeff appears to percieve.Many people want independence for different reason.some advance the ecoomic case and I do acknowledge that an independent Scotland could be prosperous.However my reason for wanting independence is that it is a natural state of being.My personal view is that it is natural to have the freedom to take responsibility for your own decisions and to be fully engaged with the rest of the world.in this resect independence is not about seperation or divorce,it is about parliaments within the nations of the British Isles that are equal,collaboration with other nations on areas of mutual interest,and being international.
#26 by douglas clark on July 26, 2011 - 5:41 pm
I know I am boring on this subject but the UK, as is, has fourteen or so overseas territories:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Overseas_Territories
I really do think that Scottish nationalists should have a view on them, preferably not one that leaves them in the hands of a bunch of barbaric imperialists.
Has there been any thought given to this topic by the SNP?
#27 by Alexander Belic on July 27, 2011 - 12:37 am
I’m sure this has been discussed before but:
Of those overseas territories, just under half of them were English possessions prior to Union in 1707, so Scotland can’t really make any claim to them.
St Helena (1657)
Montserrat (1632)
Cayman Islands (1670)
British Virgin Islands (1680)
Bermuda (1609)
Anguilla (1650)
So that leaves
Akrotiri_and_Dhekelia (1960)
South Georgia and the Sandwich Islands (1775)
Ascention Island (1815)
Tristan de Cunha (1815)
Pitcairn Islands (1838)
Gibraltar (1713)
Falklands (1764)
British Antarctic Territory (1833)
British Indian Ocean Territory (1810)
Turks & Caicos (1783)
Of which the only one I know of any SNP policies regarding is the Indian Ocean Territory which the SNP believe should be returned to the Chagos Islanders.
#28 by Indy on July 27, 2011 - 9:11 am
Lol I am pretty sure we will not be laying claim to any overseas territories.
Oh, and Berwick will stay where it is. In England.
#29 by Alexander Belic on July 27, 2011 - 11:53 am
I don’t think it’s about “laying claim” as the UK we already have a claim, to those territories established after the Union. I’m sure any negotiating team worth its salt would make the case that by ceding our claim to these UK assets and letting rUK handle them we would require compensation elsewhere, either in a larger than per-capita share of some assets like military hardware, or in a smaller than per-capita share of some liabilities like the national debt.
That is of course assuming that rUK is super-keen on holding onto what little trappings of Empire it has left, but a pragmatic Westminster government would see this as an opportunity to off-load those territories that cost the most for upkeep. We might end up lumbered with responsibility for the defence of the Pitcairn Islands or delivering post to Tristan de Cunha. And we probably should start considering our position on the matter, rather than being blindsided when the time comes.
I’d agree that regardless of what Christine Grahame and Jeremy Purvis think, Berwick-UT should stay in England until they elect someone who argues otherwise.
#30 by Ben Achie on July 26, 2011 - 6:37 pm
NATO has lost its raison d’etre, and Finland appears to manage just fine outside it with a 1.7% level of defence spending. Oh, and doesn’t deep-freezing Finland happen to have the highest GDP per head in the EU – could the two be related? Perhaps that 1% of GDP invested in infrastructure has made all the difference. The US can no longer afford its military capacity, and the Chinese can pull the rug from under them any time they like, without firing a shot! So which is the most effective strategically – reserves and investment or military hardware that is useless except for killing people, or intimidating them with the threat of doing so? A pan-European defence force is the obvious future: NATO is unlikely to survive Afghanistan.
#31 by Cameron on July 27, 2011 - 2:23 pm
Just as a point of note
Iceland has no military
Norway has a professional military
Sweden has a professional military
Finland has national service
Denmark has a professional military
Generally it seems that countries that have or had national service have cheaper defence, don’t know why.
Oh and does anybody know if Trident is actually included in defence spending? I thought it was paid for separately to the MOD budget.