A guest post from Dr Peter Lynch of the University of Stirling. Â Peter has published widely on devolution, regionalism and the SNP, including this 1999 history of the party, as well as being a familiar voice on Radio Scotland as an election commentator.
The recent BBC Question Time of 16th June 2011 demonstrated some of the difficulties the SNP will face in getting a Yes vote at the independence referendum – the difficulty of having detailed answers to every post-independence question under the sun.
The questioner in the audience who pointed out that independence would require embassies, defence forces, the immigration service, customs service, EU membership and currency, probably did the SNP a service here.
The obvious thing about some of these issues is that they are difficult if not impossible to answer at this stage. Determining how many rifles the Scottish army will have after independence is just about as hard as determining how many the British Army has now, let alone whether they actually work. As such details are a problem, then the No campaign may well choose to drown out the independence option with endless questions they know cannot be answered and tie up the Yes campaigners in very detailed knots!
This is a problem for the SNP, but it has, in the past, provided some useful answers. Back in 1996, Allan Macartney helped to produce the Transition Report on Scottish independence, which sought to explain that independence was not a one-day wonder, but rather a gradual process of getting from the constitutional present to independence, in an orderly fashion, over several years. Getting hold of the Transition report is a challenge, though some of it was assessed by the Constitution Unit here (pdf). And, it makes interesting reading as it explains how to get to independence through a transitional process of negotiation, asset divisions, establishing institutions, policies, etc. You don’t just arrive there the day after the referendum. An actual independence day would only occur some years after the referendum.
Despite the need for a transition, devolution does provide a strong institutional platform for independence. The Scottish government already exists, with a range of organisations and civil servants responsible for policymaking. Independence is not a year zero for government or government institutions. Rather it is a case of bolting on new policy responsibilities like defence, foreign affairs, immigration, taxation, etc., onto existing government institutions and organisations (think about existing British military bases in Scotland as well as HMRC’s Centre One in East Kilbride). Sorting out these complexities is something the SNP will need to think through in the years from now to the referendum.
Of course, the politicians currently moaning about the lack of details about independence will moan even more when the Scottish government sets up commissions to study the transition to independence and any details of the independence process. The opposition parties will complain about wasting taxpayer’s money. For evidence of this, think back to the opposition’s behaviour over the white paper Choosing Scotland’s Future in 2007, as well as the ten policy papers that followed from 2008-9. Of course, complaining about them was easier than reading them and deeply ironic as they contained a fair bit of detail on the constitutional options of both independence and devo-max.
#1 by douglas clark on June 28, 2011 - 8:15 am
Peter,
I’d be interested to know if you see the break up of the former Czechoslovakia as a model?
#2 by Stuart Winton on June 28, 2011 - 8:43 am
But surely the problem is that since the SNP know an *independence* referendum is unwinnable then they are currently trying to ascertain the type of consitutional arrangement that could be won, hence the lack of detail and a sense that this uncertainty is all about testing the public opinion waters?
Even if the minutiae – such as “how many rifles a Scottish army would have” – couldn’t plausibly be answered until much further down the line, surely the problem is that even in terms of the fundamentals there’s no clear idea of what’s being aimed for?
#3 by Angus McLellan on June 28, 2011 - 12:39 pm
The only way Scotland will become independent any time soon is by inviting people to vote on the question and persuading more than half of the people who turn out to put their cross in the Yes box. Until last month, this wasn’t going to happen as the SNP Government couldn’t even take the first step of calling a referendum so there was no way to get to a Yes vote. That’s about as unwinnable as it gets.
Things have changed. However you may think the chances of getting a Yes majority should be assessed, the referendum is no longer unwinnable a priori. And whatever the outcome might be were people asked to vote next month, the reality is that there are several years in which to work on building support. That won’t be easy, but there’s no reason to suppose that it is impossible. We need only go back to the vote in May again, and the AV referendum, to see how poor campaigning can throw away an early lead in opinion polls.
#4 by Indy on June 28, 2011 - 9:51 am
Lol. Peter Lynch correctly points to the ten separate policy papers on top of Choosing Scotland’s Future, Your Scotland Your Voice and the Draft Referendum paper.
Tell us Stuart have you read a single one of these documents yet – or are you too busy writing posts accusing the SNP of not knowing what they mean by independence?
#5 by Stuart Winton on June 28, 2011 - 8:26 pm
Indy, the point is that if the SNP thought *independence* could be won then they wouldn’t be faffing about with – and making a virtue of – a third option, about which the Scotsman recently reported:
“When pressed on the precise form that full fiscal autonomy would take, Mr Salmond refused to be drawn saying: “You are leading me too far.”
“However, most analysts agreed that independence-lite would be a settlement similar to what used to be known as Home Rule, with Scotland remaining in the Union yet having power over domestic affairs including the vast majority of tax-raising powers and benefits. Policies such as defence and foreign affairs would remain with Westminster.
“Mr Salmond said: “We have no interest in doing anything other than making a clear question so that people can vote yes or no. The question as to whether there is a second proposition which could also be put, I have left open because I do know that there are is a substantial body of opinion in Scotland which says that is an option.
“”But it is not being articulated as a political party at the moment. But sometimes there are options that have an legitimacy which doesn’t necessarily at any one point in time get reflected by a political party.””
Thus if the papers you think make the whole thing cut and dry then why doesn’t the SNP and Alex Salmond just refer to them and get on with it?
And if you expect members of the public like myself to have read the papers and thus know the details of independence then why can’t Anne McLaughlin answer even the most basic questions about defence in an ‘independent’ Scotland – Bernard Ponsonby didn’t ask her about defence under a third option – or ditto Nicola Sturgeon on the sterling/euro question?
Thus instead of LOLing at others when your own don’t have a clue then perhaps you should spend some time getting your own house in order.
But as usual you’re just trying to deflect attention from the SNP’s lack of clarity on the issue, which is about as clear as your position on the anti-sectarian legislation.
Thus policy on the hoof, a distinct lack of clarity and generally over the place.
LOL. Or even ROFLMAO.
#6 by Angus McLellan on June 28, 2011 - 10:37 pm
Politicians are often treated as though they were speaking for their party, or department, or government. Evasion, unless carried to “Michael Howard vs Paxman” lengths, isn’t very memorable at all whereas a “split” or “U-turn” may appear in the news. I don’t want to be seen to be making excuses for evasive, slippery non-answers from politicians, but they are in a difficult position if they need to show initiative in public.
For those reasons, the SNP could certainly do better with getting the official line out to their people. (Did I ever bore the world with my ‘Debating Independence for Dummies’ series idea? Imagine a series of Youtube how-to videos coving “in the pub”, “on facebook”, “on twitter”, “on blogs”, “on usenet”… to which we can now add “on tv”.) We can take it as read that the party line won’t meet with your approval, and it may not meet with mine either. Mox nix.
Of course the same could be said for the Unionist parties, especially the two that form the Westminster government. Mundell appears to be thinking out loud half of the time he’s quoted, Rennie isn’t very much better and Moore’s big adventure off-piste was unfortunate to say the least. Along with the non-apology apology, saying nothing at great length is something that is best mastered by politicians in the larval stage.
#7 by Indy on June 29, 2011 - 10:18 am
You know your version of politics seems to involve politicians sitting like the gods of old on Mount Olympus handing down tablets of stone saying take it or leave it to the littloe ants scurrying about below. Any form of consultation or discussion of options is to be pounced on as a sign of weakness and an indication that people don’t know what they want.
It’s why all these conversations are doomed and why you will never “get” independence because it is about the people of Scotland taking their own decisions about matters, not having those decisions taken for them.
#8 by Stuart Winton on July 1, 2011 - 6:20 am
And what you’ll never ‘get’ is that for some people it’s about good government, not who’s deciding things.
As regards your first paragraph, one minute you seem to saying it should be clear to everyone, now you’re alluding that discussion and consultation is a strength; you can’t have it both ways.
It’s not a question of gods on Mount Olympus and little ants, Indy, it’s just a question of looking for a bit of candour on the matter. And I realise that the lack of transparency on the issues is not just the SNP’s fault in view of the lack of information from the EU Commission on the matter of a new Scottish state’s membership, for example, as discussed on Malc’s recent thread.
But as regards the lack of clarity as a whole, I can’t really see that my case is a whole lot different from that of George Kerevan outlined in today’s Scotsman:
“But the leadership cannot escape such a discussion because ordinary voters want answers before they’ll vote Yes in the referendum, and because the SNP’s rank and file won’t be complacent forever.”
#9 by ReasonableNat on June 28, 2011 - 3:27 pm
Keen to read the linked document but I’m getting a 404 from your site. Any chance you could have a look. Obviously feel free not to publish this comment 🙂
#10 by James on June 28, 2011 - 3:36 pm
Fixed!
#11 by ReasonableNat on June 28, 2011 - 4:43 pm
Thank you very much sir 🙂
#12 by prono on June 28, 2011 - 7:40 pm
I do hope we get to hear more from Dr Peter Lynch.