The Inverclyde by-election is almost upon us. The Westminster issues have been explored in depth and the local public can’t wait to do their democratic duty candidates have verbally battered each other and party activists have stuffed letterboxes with literature to a largely uninterested and increasingly frustrated electorate.

The truth is, of course, a by-election makes little difference at a local level and only really helps to shape the narrative for parties at a national level, albeit for only a short period.

So, if that is what is at stake, let’s see how this Thursday might go for each of the stakeholders…

Labour – In one respect, the red hot favourites have everything to lose and, in another respect, they have nothing to lose. The next Westminster election is 4 years away, the next Holyrood election is 5 five years away and Ed Miliband’s renewal of the party has only just begun. Does it matter if Inverclyde goes yellow? For a few days, maybe even a full week, yes, but after that the disappointment will be swept away as the next crisis/disaster/scandal comes along to take its place.

SNP – For the SNP to win this by-election it would be a big surprise, though perhaps not a huge shock since the campaign seems to be going swimmingly and Anne McLaughlin has acquitted herself very well in the tv debates. However, in the media narrative, you are either a winner or a loser so to avoid the latter, the SNP will have to find a way to be the former. Most of the public won’t appreciate how great a result it would be for the Nats to fall within a couple of thousand votes of Labour in this area so some of the gloss might come off Salmond’s veneer from this Thursday, over and above the self-inflicted problems that is.

Conservatives – They will finish third. They may save their deposit. There will be no embarrassment but there will be no reason for cheer either. From a Tory perspective, this by-election will only serve to remind the UK that David Cameron’s message, and the coalition’s at large, is not being heeded north of the border.

Lib Dems – They should finish fourth, they will lose their deposit. The Lib Dems will have given their youthful ‘rising star’ (a phrase used too liberally if you ask me) a good deal of experience and exposure in this contest but, at best, it can only be a disappointing night for them. The disaster would be finishing below UKIP who received 433 votes in 2010, to the Lib Dems’ 5,007. I wouldn’t rule it out, but that may just be heart ruling head.

Greens – There’s not much point in standing in a contest when you know you will lose your deposit but the Scottish Greens will not be discussed during this campaign nor during the results broadcast so they are already ontrack for a disappointing night as they seek to gain a foothold in the political imagination of Scotland.

So there we go, that’s about the long and short of what Thursday evening will mean despite the hours of discussion that anoraks will lap up and the rest of the country will not be listening to. Maybe I’m getting cynical in my old age, maybe the SNP’s arguments are getting through but I would only sit up and take notice of a Scottish by-election if it was for Holyrood rather than Westminster.

Not a bad endorsement of how important the Scottish Parliament has become in 12 short years.