A very welcome guest post from Ross McCafferty who, much to his annoyance, you will probably know better as @HolyroodPatter. Ross is a former blogger and parliamentary worker who recently mothballed his much loved blog and instead has opted for just incessant tweeting on Scottish and sometimes UK Politics. A current political history student, he can normally be found analysing, arguing and annoying on twitter, because anything beats studying.
Following Jeff’s recent post, I was delighted to be offered the chance to have my tuppence worth on whether money can really be made betting on politics. The short answer, of course, is yes.
Those who took a punt on the SNP winning most seats at 3, 5, even 7 to 1 are no doubt leafing through their winnings happily by now. But it is in a UK context that the bookmakers continue to seem to defy conventional wisdom so you can, with a fair amount of guesswork and a half decent political analysis, make money on politics.
Take the next Permanent Tory Leader. I should say from the off that a certain amount of patience is required in this tricky field. No one expects a vacancy any time soon, but let us imagine that the Conservatives contrive to lose the General Election of 2015, Ed Milliband is swept to power and David Cameron is facing the job club. No leader could survive such a defeat.
Now, to the options to replace him; the Bookmakers offer odds of 4, 5, and 6 to one respectively on the three favourites. And they are? Boris Johnson, William Hague and George Osborne. No, really. Despite his designs on the top job (that is allowing for the rather generous assumption that Boris has designs on anything) there is absolutely no way someone as divisive, chequered, and frankly dim would be elected to lead HM opposition. Hague couldn’t get the Tories any advance on the electoral demolition of 1997, he is not a viable candidate. And Osborne? I would make him at least a twenty to one outsider. Should the Tories be booted from office, presumably because of losing a spending cuts argument, why would anyone in their right mind vote for the Lieutenant of that Cutters Army to lead the party and the country? And I see very little evidence of  a Granita esque handover. Mr Cameron, if he is allowed, is in this for the long haul.
So to my advice. Avoid ludicrous 200/1 shots like Guido Fawkes or Nadine Dorries. One’s a rabid right wing blogger with a suspicious agenda, and the other is Guido Fawkes. It is in the middle of the pack where the real value lies. Greg Clarke 18/1, Ed Vaisey, 25/1 Nick Herbert and Zac Goldsmith both at 33!
It is the same with the Labour Party. Despite Yvette Cooper being an 11/4 favourite, parliamentary experience is essential and Yvette, for all her demonstrable skills, has barely landed a blow on Theresa May, hardly the most combative of political operators.
Frankly, if some bookmakers are still daft enough to be giving you 25/1 on Jim Murphy, I would jump all over it. He has built a good profile down south, as evidenced by his seeming reluctance to touch the poisonous wreckage of the Scottish campaign with a barge pole.
There is a similar message in the shadow cabinet. Should Labour be trounced in 2015, the economic message having fallen flat, why would you elect the man responsible for articulating it? Step forward Mr E Balls, 8/1 third favourite. I am entirely ignoring David Milliband because being beaten was most probably an equally chastening, but massively financially rewarding set of circumstances for him.
Chukka Umuna is my tip (Google Umuna Obama for all the evidence you need to see he is winning over the intellectual base of the party) and he is good value at 12/1, although he has to show just a smidge more personality than was evident from his eerily polished recent Question Time appearance. It’d be cruel not to mention the Lib Dems, but can anyone see past Tim Farron? 3/1 on him remains good value though I am pleased to see Charlie Kennedy’s odds come in to almost 10/1, I backed him at 20/1 last year.
Rounding up with a few other matters, William Hill are offering the ludicrously generous odds of 2/1 that the next general election will be in 2015. The coalition has already shown that it can survive most strife and scandal with its belief in the greater good and all that business; although you will have to spend a fair chunk to see any return.
These bets can almost slip under the radar: despite myself and Jeff ranting about it. The odds offered by Ladbrokes of 3/1 on between 0 and 2 Scots Tory MPs were very generous and I wasn’t the only one who backed it. For a very long term bet, why not take the offer of 10/1 that Ed Milliband will be in post longer than Tony Blair? It’s not entirely inconceivable; if Ed wins in 2015, sees out 2.5 parliamentary terms then he has done the job! 13/2 on a Labour/Lib Dem Coalition in 2015 isn’t a bad bet either, and I would be failing in party duty if I didn’t tell you all to back the 5/4 option that Scotland will vote Yes in the upcoming independence referendum.
So there we have it, all that’s required is a bit of political nous, the bravery to trust your instincts, a lot of luck and plenty of patience. They don’t call it “taking a punt” for nothing!
#1 by Gary on June 4, 2011 - 9:46 am
Speaking as a man who enjoys his football coupons, I recommend checking out lesser-known/internet based bookies such as BlueSq, Paddy Power & Bet 365. I don’t know what their political coverage is like, but they tend to offer longer odds than the likes of Ladbrokes and William Hill in order to overcome the name recognition differential!
#2 by Jeff on June 4, 2011 - 10:14 am
Cheers Ross, great post and I totally agree that there is a lot of value in there. I can’t believe that 2/1 2015 election bet. Bonkers.
I can see the Tories winning the 2015 election outright and Cameron handing over to Osborne in 2017/18. Osborne is the most political of the Tory front bench and I reckon the party faithful will like that. So I wouldn’t wrote off George so quickly. Boris and Hague? Absolutely, no chance they’ll get in next.
#3 by Holyroodpatter on June 4, 2011 - 10:44 am
Gary, I always use oddschecker to see what is best, in the High street in my home town betfred, pp, hills, coral, ladbrokes, and the tote are all represented within 50 yards!
Jeff it could happen, but what age will cAmeron be in 2018? 50? He might want to outlast mrs T, and George might feel that having protected them in legislative terms from the worst of public anger, the banking sector owes him a directorship or three. I agree bojo and hague confuse me utterly. He might win over the party faithful but the smart among them should consider that being slightly righter, and indeed slightly posher than a divisive prime minister wouldn’t be wise, but again that’s where instinct comes in
#4 by James on June 4, 2011 - 2:35 pm
Oddschecker is outstanding. How it isn’t ending the bookies’ relative margins I do not know.
I also agree entirely about the Tories – the value is in the middle. But Yvette I have always thought a good bet, and Labour won’t elect a leader from a Scottish constituency while a possibility of independence looms. Imagine the chaos! Leader abolished! Having said which, 5/4 is poor odds on a yes vote. I’d want 5/2 before I’d even consider getting into it, and even then I’d want to see some sign of better tactical nous on the issue before getting behind it.
#5 by Tony on June 4, 2011 - 2:26 pm
I am a reformed gambler on the fitba, not because I developed a problem mind you I just got bored. I was one of the few (actually I don’t know anyone else apart from Salmond) who won money on Glasgow East. I am from that neck of the woods, everyone was talking about voting which is not the normal patter believe you me, and because of this I took a punt. Helps to have an ear to the ground.
Anybody from Inverclyde?
#6 by holyroodpatter on June 4, 2011 - 3:38 pm
The author is 🙂
#7 by Ben Achie on June 4, 2011 - 4:45 pm
Labour will have a job holding out to the SNP’s momentum in Inverclyde, but I’m not a betting man (nor do I live anywhere near Inverclyde).
I cannot see Miliband Minor lasting to 2015, albeit Labour are far less ruthless at deposing poorly performing leaders than the Tories. And I cannot see the Tories losing in 2015, either. Given the terminal state of the Lib-Dems, I cannot foresee them going nuclear(!), but staying with the coalition for the whole term. Cameron will stick with the PM job as it appears to be addictive. All that said, the lumpen proletariate could get into rioting mood north of the Watford Gap, which could have unpredictable repercussions.
The current constitutional issues spat is all about the Scotland Bill, but is win/win for the SNP government. A clearly more successful ecomomic management regimen in Scotland based on increased fiscal etc powers will remove fear of the final step to independence. If we don’t get these concessions, having an obviously more competent and empathic government will convince the Scots that they have nothing much to lose by detaching themselves from a Westminster set-up in terminal decline, anyway. The long term problem with English politics is that nothing really matters north of the Watford Gap! The House of Windsor is, of course, above such things, but is showing a capacity to play a much cannier hand, despite a so-so history in this regard.
#8 by Gary on June 4, 2011 - 6:27 pm
Hi Ross,
Coming from the buzzing metropolis that is Dundee, all we have is a myriad of Ladbrokes and a couple of hardy William Hills here and there…think yourself “lucky” you have so many options!
In general (and I’ve tested this) you do get longer odds online than in shops-one online site that’s not offering great odds, however, is Betfair. As it’s a betting exchange, the odds on offer are from other punters (essentially it’s an online version of betting against someone in the pub)- for example, you’re not getting odds any longer than 2/1 on ANY candidate for LOLITSP, and the odds for the next Tory leader are all shorter than those quoted above. Better to stick to the actual, mildly clueless bookies than the boys over at Betfair.
#9 by JPJ2 on June 4, 2011 - 11:17 pm
Betfair works well when it generates a market with any sort of depth.
I consider Rory Stewart a reasonable bet for next Tory leader (15/1 at Betfair) expecially as I don’t anticipate a new one for many years yet.
#10 by Jeff on June 5, 2011 - 2:36 pm
That is a good bet. I suppose when you take inflation into account though, there isn’t quite as much value in these bets than as first seemed. I could do a lot with £50 over the next 8 years, and so could a bookie…!
#11 by holyroodpatter on June 5, 2011 - 9:54 pm
No value? Way to disbanded the whole regiment jeff!