The past couple of weeks have seen several Liberal Democrat councillors switch allegiance to the SNP, no doubt partly due to disappointment with the actions of their former party at Westminster and partly with half an eye on next year’s local elections. In a UK context, they are not alone.
The Lib Dems difficult position is not getting any easier for Nick Clegg; his call for a more ‘muscular liberalism’ and objections outwith the coalition agreement won’t be accepted by the Conservatives and it also undermines his party’s stance on saying they had to increase tuition fees and increase VAT because it was in the coalition agreement. Why did Nick Clegg accept those policies but is now reacting against the NHS proposals when all of those policies were in the agreement? I suspect that will be the next circle the Lib Dems will have to square in the next few weeks, aside from dealing with Chris Huhne’s exit from Government of course.
The next Westminster election is probably still some way off, if the coalition does hold for the full five years then we have four long years to go. However, if any MPs are thinking about switching allegiance for principled or pragmatic reasons (particularly in Scotland in light of the Holyrood results), they are probably best to do so in the next year or two in order to avoid too many charges of naked opportunism, not to mention time to let local activists warm to them.
So which Scottish MPs might be considering the move?
Mike Crockart – Edinburgh West
Won a narrow selection contest to take the supposedly safe Lib Dem seat in 2010 but has since quit Government to vote against coalition proposals on tuition fees and watched on as the Lib Dems were wiped out in the Lothians in the Holyrood elections. A repeat result in next year’s council elections may well focus the mind for this young, up and coming politician.
Likelihood of defection? Medium
Alan Reid – Argyll & Bute
In the past three Holyrood elections in this area, the Lib Dems have slumped from 1st (35% voteshare) through 2nd (32% voteshare) to 4th (12% voteshare). One coudl argue that the writing must surely be on the wall for Alan Reid even at this early stage.
Alan voted against the proposals to increase university tuition fees so is clearly not afraid to stand up to and against the party machine.
Likelihood of defection? Medium
Michael Moore – Tweedale, Ettrick & Lauderdale
Michael is the current Secretary State for Scotland but his distaste for the coalition was made known via a secret recording of comments regarding the tuition fees vote. Apparently “Tuition fees … [are] the biggest, ugliest, most horrific thing in all of this” so there is scope for further discord and not respecting party decisions. There is also currently a whispering campaign against Michael as a result of his intransigence in moving towards a more federal UK, which is Lib Dem policy.
Michael holds only a 1,489 majority over Labour from 2010.
Likelihood of defection? Medium
Sir Robert Smith – West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Robert holds a 3,684 majority over the Conservatives in that rarest of constituencies in Scotland, a Tory/Lib Dem two horse race. I don’t know if the MP is an orange-booker or sympathetic to the blues but Robert’s grandfather served this constituency as a Tory and he is a ‘3rd baronet’ which, I don’t know what it means, but it sounds more Tory than Lib Dem to me.
Swinging allegiance just before 2015 from orange to blue would virtually cement re-election, if the local Tory group allowed it of course.
Likelihood of defection? Medium
Jo Swinson
Jo fought off a strong challenge from Labour in 2010 to hold onto her East Dunbartonshire constituency by 2,184 votes. The Conservatives and SNP were a distant 3rd and 4th. Despite the SNP taking near-equivalent Strathkelvin and Bearsden in 2011 from Labour’s David Whitton, this should be a Labour/Lib Deb two-horse race in 2015.
It is early days but given that the Lib Dems slumped to 4th place in 2011 with only 7.7% of the vote, one has to assume that the writing is already on the wall for Jo Swinson’s tenure as an MP. Crossing the floor to Labour is probably the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ Deputy Leader’s best chance of re-election.
Likelihood of defection? Low
Menzies Campbell/Charlie Kennedy/Malcolm Bruce
Rightly or wrongly, I view this trio as a mini-group of MPs within MPs. Similar political views and similar length of experience, they have invested much of their career to the benefit of the Lib Dems but these senior politicians are conspicuous by the their silence and, if one was to take drastic action, one has to assume all three of them would together. The age and stage of their careers probably means they’ll ride out this chapter of the Liberal Democrat story without objecting too radically.
Likelihood of defection? Low
John Thurso – Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Probably enjoys a strong enough personal vote to be too overly-concerned with not winning at elections any more. May also be considering retirement in 2015 having served three parliamentary terms since 2001.
Likelihood of defection? Low
Alistair Carmichael – Orkney & Shetlands
The islands have been Lib Dem held since the 1950s and Alistair was President of the Liberal Club way back when he was a student.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent
Danny Alexander – Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Danny holds a 8,765 majority over Labour from the 2010 election which is a winnable margin looking ahead to 2015, even with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury being the poster boy for the Lib Dems, and flak jacket for the Tories, when it comes to cuts. Danny seems to embody the rural, pragmatic, intellectual wing(s) of the Liberal Democrats and it is difficult to picture the man with any other rosette on his lapel.
Likelihood of defection? Non-existent
#1 by ross on May 30, 2011 - 2:04 am
I know jo swinson and position is very hard to tell. She won a large personal vvote as a very hard worker but she also voted for tuition fees and went on bbc news that night to persuade other lib dems to do likewise. This enraged people locally and one of her surgeries was cancelled when a dozen school pupils turned out to protest her decision. The local lib dem party were enraged by her stance and there was strong talk of de selection next time round.
I have attempted to persuade her to switch, namely to the greens but she is in with the coalition until the end.
#2 by rlemkin on May 30, 2011 - 10:16 am
I think we can assume after this May that for the majority of Lib Dem MPs who *did* enjoy a personal vote won’t next time round, apart from the Islands.
Personally I think all of them will either stay with the sinking ship or quietly retire in 2015.
#3 by Caron on May 30, 2011 - 7:31 am
Jeff, what has happened to you? You used to be quite sensible, but openly admitting that you really don’t know much about someone but on the basis of their grandfather being a Tory and the fact that there’s a title hanging around, you assess them at a medium defection risk. On the basis of my 25 year acquaintance with Bob, I’d say that non existent would be a more accurate assessment.
The same with Mike Moore. You seem to think it’s strange that a Liberal Democrat would stand up for Liberal Democrat values as he did in that Torygraph tape. He isn’t going anywhere – the party loves him and that Scotsman story was a load of hogwash. It’s funny that these stories appear in the press whenever Mike meets Salmond. It’s like someone’s trying to strengthen Salmond’s hand. Who could that be, I wonder?
And I’d stake my mortgage on Alan and Mike C staying with us too.
Another case of move along, nothing to see here.
#4 by Richard Thomson on May 30, 2011 - 10:28 am
I’m with Caron on this one, Jeff. 10/10 for mischief making, but the chances of any Lib Dem defections coming off is close to nil – their trousers are all firmly nailed to the mast and they’ll either sink or survive along with the fortunes of the coalition.
Caron – I am curious as to who you think is spreading these stories, as its the second time I’ve seen you make this assertion about anti-Michael Moore briefing when he goes in to meet the FM. Who do you think is behind it? And why would anyone at the Telegraph want to strengthen Alex Salmond’s hand?
#5 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 12:03 pm
Fair enough Richard and Caron. The obvious question upon reading about quite a few Lib Dem council defections though is -could a Lib Dem MP follow suit, so it’s not an unreasonable premise for a post. The reasons that have pushed these councillors over the edge will surely also be on the minds of the Scottish Lib Dem MPs whose careers are staring down the barrel of a gun.
But no, I wouldn’t bet the house on even a single defection before 2015 so “mischief-making”…? You may say that but etc etc 😉
#6 by rlemkin on May 30, 2011 - 12:09 pm
I assume people would have been happier had your post been about whether there would be any Lib Dem MPs left in Scotland in 2015 😉
#7 by Richard Thomson on May 30, 2011 - 1:42 pm
It’s all good fun – as a senior politician of my aquaintance used to be fond of saying, cast a stone and see where the ripples end up 🙂
Nonetheless, playing with the idea seriously, it’s hard to see the utility for Scottish Lib Dem MPs defecting – for any party. The SNP would be delighted to see the 2 most nat-friendly Lib Dems – Charlie Kennedy and Alastair Carmichael – cross the floor, but Charlie’s too long in the game to consider it and for all his affability, I really can’t see Alastair seing it as an attractive option.
Hell would freeze over before either Malcolm Bruce or Menzies Campbell would go anywhere else. As for the rest, it’s worth noting that they’d be more likely to go Labour or in the case of maybe Sir Robert Smith, Tory. It’s also worth reflecting that since the SNP took the equivalent areas at Holyrood, the opportunity for tactical voting would be likley to see any defecting incumbent turfed out if voters took a scunner to their motives for so doing.
I think the likliest candidates for defection are probably south of the border. There’s a few orange bookers who would be right at home in Cameron’s Conservatives, while I can think of one or two of the more voluble in the Social Democrat wing who might be tempted by Labour were Milliband to get his act together.
That said, I still think Lib Dem MPs are far more likely to sit tight. Having taken all the pain to date, they really are past the point of no return coalition wise and would be as well to see it through, in the hope that the public is more accepting of the position they have adopted by the time of the next election.
#8 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 2:18 pm
Sage words Richard, can’t really argue with any of that, pebble-chucking or otherwise.
#9 by Paco McSheepie on May 30, 2011 - 8:41 am
There is no LibDem jumping off he paymasters gravy train
These are politicians given a shot at a seat in government that they could never have dreamed of
Oh, and the small matter of a healthy salary and slightly reduced but fantastic expenses all the same
#10 by Rab o' Ruglen on May 30, 2011 - 9:08 am
Hi Jeff,
Your proposals ignore (as they must do since they will be private – at least at this stage in the game) any reaction that tentative enquiries from the preferred party of switching might be. In Michael Moore’s case I would doubt that they would be positive if he were to approach either the SNP or Labour.
Regards,
#11 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 9:55 am
Hi Rab, yes that’s true. There is a certain glossing over of the practicalities of what a defection actually involves. Indeed, i can’t remember a Scottish MP ever crossing the floor which I suppose doesn’t augur well for it happening soon. It somewhat hinges on the local election results I suspect.
#12 by Alex Buchan on May 30, 2011 - 3:54 pm
Jeff
Not quite right there about no Scottish MP ever defecting. Dick Douglas MP defected from Labour to the SNP in 1990.
#13 by David on May 30, 2011 - 10:58 am
Utter mince.
leaving aside the assumption that SNP hegemony is now assured for time immemorial (what happened to the 20 seats in 2010??) it shows such a weak feel for SLD politics as to throw in to question some of the usually excellent debate here.
Why the assumption that one defeat for them signals the abandonement of a lifelong political view? If some other parties in Scotland had crossed the floor at every set-back, what a colourful chamber it would be.
#14 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 12:11 pm
Well, the assumption that one setback will lead to a defection is borne simply from the raft of defections we are seeing at council level up and down the UK. And you suggest defecting is an “abandonment of a lifelong political view”; I see it rather differently in that in order for certain Lib Dems to maintain their lifelong views, they need to find a different party.
That said, it is often more honourable to stuck with your team through thin as well as thick and I’d have more respect if the Lib Dem MPs stick with their party until 2015, even if they do happen to look set for a drubbing.
You also mention I am assuming the SNP will maintain its hegemony in the next 4 years but it is actually to Labour that I would suggest many Lib Dem MPs would defect to, if anyone.
And finally, there seems to be a ‘gloves on’ approach to the Lib Dems in certain quarters, a ‘don’t be too tough on them as they’re having a hard time’. I’ve obviously not signed up to it and don’t intend to.
#15 by Dubbieside on May 30, 2011 - 11:58 am
Jeff
Yet another well aimed pebble thrown on a calm pond. Interesting comment, though for the life of me cannot see why the SNP would want any of the Lib/Dem MPs.
Rab
Moore is now so toxic he will be lucky to save his deposit never mind win his seat again.
David
I thought that the the Lib Dems abandoned a lifelong political view when they joined the Torys. I seem to recall some of them were quite attached to no tuition fees, but I think they abandoned that lifelong political view as well.
#16 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 12:20 pm
“Yet another well aimed pebble thrown on a calm pond”
This only serves to back up your point I suppose Dubbieside but that is an excellent line.
#17 by Gavin Hamilton on May 30, 2011 - 1:02 pm
Indeed a fair deal of mischief making and schadenfreude here!!
Not sure If I see much serious commentary about the LibDems, what they are doing in government and what next.
I’ve seen this a couple of times before during a period when their fortunes are down. Those with momentum suddenly regard them as an irritant and assumptively expect them to move over to some other party.
There are deeper roots there, than many realise and a fundamental appeal to a large chunk of the electorate for either them or someone in that space.
Their issue is first hanging on, then building their position again – which is testing in a coalition situation and then communicating. A challenge I grant you!!
#18 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 1:26 pm
I wouldn’t say it’s a case of wishing Lib Dems to ‘get out of the way’ Gavin. I like to think I’m fairly non-aligned so not much reason for that line of thinking I would protest.
A self-indulgent but nonetheless objective look at what might make a fun headline way out in the future? That’s a bit closer to home I’d say. And I also have a 4 year window for a delightfully smug ‘told you so’ moment!
Ah well, I found it an interesting and valid source of speculation, I can see I’m in the minority there.
#19 by mav on May 30, 2011 - 2:59 pm
so Moore’s majority is 1489 over Labour is it? Lack of accuracy destroys your mischief making argument.
4 months ago, polls said put Labour so far ahead that Gray looked odds on to be FM; possibly even with a majority, though the same polls said that Salmond was popular and Gray wasn’t even recognised. today the polls have Cameron with far better ratings than Milliband, who is drawing IDS comparisons. Yet those same polls put Ed in Downing St, largely because the half of LD voters who don’t like the Tories are saying they will switch. Had Clegg signed up with Labour, you can bet the other half of LD voters would have gone Tory. 2015 is a long long time away. Who knows where we’ll be. I’d be astonished if there were more than a couple of UK wide defections though, and none will do so this far out.
#20 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 3:12 pm
Rats. Not sure how I managed to muck that one up.
Michael Moore appears to now have a majority of 4-5,000 over the Tories. Think I can safely downgrade defection risk to Defcon 1 as a result.
#21 by Dubbieside on May 30, 2011 - 3:31 pm
Jeff
It does not matter what his majority was last time, a lot of Lib Dem red lines have been broken since then in their desire for a ministerial Mondeo.
The Torys played “rope a dope” and they caught two in Moore and Alexander. The Scottish electorate will show them both what they think of the tory policy hatchet men. Both will loose their deposit at the next general election.
If Moore phoned the SNP to defect they would hang up on him. Indeed if Moore phoned The Samaritans they would hang up on him.
#22 by rlemkin on May 30, 2011 - 3:58 pm
We both know the SNP wouldn’t hang up.. they’d put him on hold, organise a press conference and broadcast it on tv!
#23 by Doug Daniel on May 30, 2011 - 4:33 pm
Danny Alexander won’t defect, although he is defective (see what I did there?) I would suggest that Mr Alexander will be given his jotters by the voters in 2015, regardless of who (or what) he stands for.
There are more important issues though Jeff:
1) when will we get a “log in” link on the left? (fortunately I still have the URL in my browser history, but only on one of my computers)
2) did you know WordPress 3.1.3 is out? (I keep being implored to tell the site administrator this when I log in)
#24 by rlemkin on May 30, 2011 - 5:36 pm
ditto, I had to find the log-in link via a chached version of an old piece
#25 by Jeff on May 30, 2011 - 9:36 pm
Oh cripes. I don’t know about these things. Have you tried turning it off and on again?
James? Malc!? Help!
#26 by Doug Daniel on May 31, 2011 - 10:26 am
Unplugged it and plugged it back in again, but it’s still not working. I tried banging it on the top too, but even that didn’t work.
Whoever edits the site just needs to put back a link to the login page in the sign up section. I don’t think spammers should be able to do anything with that. Incidentally, it mght be an idea to put said link nearer the top of the page – might be just me, but I often forget to log in before posting a comment. If it was at the top, it’d be more prominent.
#27 by Danny1995 on May 30, 2011 - 10:17 pm
If you ask me it’s more likely we’ll see Lib Dems defecting to independents or even to a breakaway party of former Lib Dem MPs as opposed to defecting to SNP/CON/LAB.
I’m sure it would be tougher to sustain personal vote if standing for another party.
#28 by Angus McLellan on May 31, 2011 - 1:02 pm
To borrow an Irish analogy, there is already a Continuity Liberal Party – see “Liberal Party (UK, 1989)” on Wikipedia – so there may also be room somewhere for a Real Liberal Party too. Still, it seems far too soon for anyone to be panicking. Right now, it’s not clear where the missing LibDem voters went – Labour’s claim that they switched to the SNP may be simplistic or worse. The nature of the catastrophe may be a little clearer after the local elections next year.
#29 by Dr Bill Reynolds on May 31, 2011 - 8:49 am
A labour MP (?name Dick Douglas) defected to the SNP in the 1990,s.I believe that he was the MP for Dunfermline at the time.At the next general election he stood as an SNP candidate against Donald Dewer.I mention this because earlier someone stated that he couldnt recall an MP crossing the floor.
More to the point,I think that there will be Liberal defections to the SNP,but not necessarily all members of the party,or elected politicians.Three former Liberal councillors have already defected and I suspect that the SNP membership has been boosted post election with quite a few former liberal voters.Regarding the current group of Liberal MP’s I would see any of them being welcomed by the SNP membership.They have no vision for the future of Scotland in a changing world,have been shown to be untrustworthy,willing to work against the interests of the Scottish nation,and some of them have been very aggressive towards the SNP.The one exception might be the member for Orkney and Shetland.He is one of the few LibDems who are likely to hold their seats at the next Westminster election.However,the Scottish elections this month has warned us that there might be no such thing as a safe seat or a heartland seat.