Remember this?

That rather crude front page was four years ago, and while Scotland’s (ahem) more quality papers (and also, the Daily Record) didn’t go quite as far as the Sun in their SNP scaremongering, the message was pretty much the same as it always had been: “We don’t like the SNP, we don’t like independence, we don’t think you should support the SNP or independence”.  Okay, so I’ve probably phrased that slightly less, what, filled with rhetoric, than they did – but you get the idea.  On the SNP’s side they were not.

Fast forward to 2011, and the media picture has changed considerably.  While most of the nation’s press spent the four years of SNP government attacking them, many have come out in favour of a second SNP term.  Okay, in some cases that support is qualified – at best – but its a different media landscape for the SNP, and one which they are not used to.  In 2007, they had the bunker mentality, the “world’s-media-is-against-us” thinking, just as they had for generations before.  But today they have the support of much of Scotland’s printed press.

The Sun came out for the SNP several weeks ago:

 

 

 

 

 

The Scotsman offers its qualified support to the SNP in today’s editorial, though they want Annabel Goldie’s Conservatives there to keep Alex Salmond on the straight and narrow.  This seems as big a Road to Damascus moment as, well… the original Road to Damascus moment.  Guess that’s why we use that metaphor.  The Herald too, provides support for the SNP in its editorial, though elsewhere it is more circumspect about the campaign and the promises of each of the parties.  The Sundays have led where their sister papers followed, with the Scotland on Sunday citing Labour’s “appallingly negative” campaign as part of the reason why they see Salmond and the SNP as better for Scotland.  Meanwhile, the Daily Record focuses solely on the apparent 50% of the electorate who remain undecided and tells them they should vote for Labour.

I’ve already noted my frustrations with the campaign – and several of my friends and colleagues have mentioned that they too feel that the lengthy six-week campaign has failed to inspire.  Last night’s TV debate, while better than what went before, did nothing to instil any confidence in the leaders’ ability to change the record.  Tavish Scott got his “police” message in up top, and then again later in the debate.  Annabel got her “common sense” and “I’ll hold them to account” point in.  Salmond was his statesmanlike self, though unnerved by a couple of questioners and Iain Gray was better than he had been… until asked about his Subway encounter, when the Angry Man took over and his comment about “pointless conversations” undid anything good he had done to that point.  All in all, the debate itself wasn’t exactly an edifying spectacle.

So where does that leave us?  Well, polls open in around 20 hours.  If the latest STV poll is to be believed, the SNP are headed for a landslide, winning 61 of the 129 seats – not quite a majority, but pretty damn close.  Labour are to slump to 33 (down SIXTEEN from 2007) with the Tories on 18 (up 1) the Lib Dems on 9 (down 7) and the Greens close behind on 8 (up 6).  I’m never convinced when polls show such wide margins – I think it’ll be a bit closer – but if the SNP’s vote comes out and Labour’s collapses as predicted, I’ll be eating humble pie.

I’ll get my finalised predictions (based both on numbers and intuition) out before polls close tomorrow, and I think Jeff and Kate are planning the same – then you can giggle at how wrong we are.  But just remember, the only poll that matters….