Well if they can do it, so can I. But can I just say…. roll on the count, the finish, and no more bloody predictions.
Until the next time of course.
Did I use the science? Not really. Did I take an educated guess? Kind of. Did I copy what Malc did? You bet.
Central Scotland
Airdrie & Shotts – Labour (Karen Whitefield)
Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – Labour (Cathy Craigie)
East Kilbride – Labour (Andy Kerr)
Falkirk East – SNP (Angus MacDonald)
Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)
List: 4 SNP (Alex Neil, Jamie Hepburn, Linda Fabiani, Richard Lyle), 2 Labour (Siobhan McMahon, Mark Griffin) and 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell)
Glasgow
Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
Cathcart – Lab (Charlie Gordon)
Kelvin – SNP (Sandra White)
Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)
List:  4 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris, Sid Khan, James Dornan), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson), 1 Green (Patrick Harvie) and 1 Respect (George Galloway)
Highlands & Islands
Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)
List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 SNP (John Finnie), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrigor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green (Eleanor Scott)
Lothian
Almond  Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
Edinburgh Central – Lab (Sarah Boyack)
Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
Edinburgh Southern – Lab (Paul Godzik)
Edinburgh Western – Lib Dem (Margaret Smith)
Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
Midlothian North &Â Â Musselburgh – Lab (Bernard Hopkins)
List: 3 SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville, George Kerevan, Colin Beattie), 1 Labour (Kezia Dugdale), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 1 Green (Alison Johnstone) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald)
Mid Scotland & Fife
Clackmannanshire  & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
Dunfermline – Lab (Alex Rowley)
Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
North-East Fife – Lib Dem (Iain Smith)
Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
Perthshire South &Â Â Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
Stirling – Lab (John Henry)
List: 1 Labour (John Park), 3 SNP (Bruce Crawford, Annabelle Ewing, Douglas Chapman), 3 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith, Miles Briggs)
North-East Scotland
Aberdeen Central – Lab (Lewis McDonald)
Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
Aberdeen South & North  Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
Aberdeenshire West – Lib Dem (Mike Rumbles)
Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)
List:Â 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lesley McMahon), 1Â SNP (Mark McDonald), 2 Conservative (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne) and 1 Green (Martin Ford)
South Scotland
Ayr – Con (John Scott)
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon  Valley – Lab (Richard Leonard)
Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
Dumfriesshire – Lab (Elaine Murray)
East Lothian – Lab (Iain Gray)
Ettrick, Roxburgh &Â Â Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
Galloway & West Dumfries – SNP (Aileen McLeod)
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – Lab (Matt McLaughlin)
Midlothian South, Tweeddale  & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)
List: 3 SNP (Adam Ingram, Joan McAlpine, Paul Wheelhouse), 2 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graham Pearson), 1 Conservative (Derek Brownlee) and 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume)
West Scotland
Clydebank  & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
Eastwood – Lab (Ken Macintosh)
Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
Strathkelvin & Bearsden – Lab (David Whitton)
List: 4 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Fiona McLeod, Stuart McMillan), 1 Conservative (Annabel Goldie), 1 Labour (Mary Fee) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie)
So, my 2011-2016 Holyrood Parliament would look like this:
SNP 54 (31 constituency MSPs;Â 23 regional MSPs)
Labour 47 (34 constituency MSPs;Â 13 regional MSPs)
Cons 15 (3 constituency MSPs; 12 regional MSPs)
Lib Dem 7 (5 constituency MSPs; 2 regional MSPs)
Greens 4 (0 constituency MSPs; 4 regional MSPs)
Others 2 (0 constituency MSPs; 2 regional MSPs)
#1 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 5:32 pm
George Galloway – as dictators fall in the Middle East, they win a little consolation prize in Glasgow. Hope not!
#2 by The Burd on May 5, 2011 - 6:35 pm
Yep me too but the numbers stack up. Sadly
#3 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 9:33 pm
Ugh. It’d be the low point of the night regardless of what else happens. Ugh ugh ugh.
#4 by Richard on May 5, 2011 - 6:04 pm
Kate thanks for doing this you guys have really made this election fun. I beg to differ on a few predictions I think Alex Neil will beat Karen Whitfield and I think that in Falkirk Cathy Peattie will hold on for Labour and finally think Snp will hold Kilmarnock
#5 by The Burd on May 5, 2011 - 6:34 pm
It has been good fun! Falkirk East was a punt based on the fact that Eck visited the other day and Kilmarnock because Gray has been there twice since Saturday. Hope I am wrong on that one!
#6 by James on May 5, 2011 - 6:09 pm
Oh dear. Just as I was feeling optimistic again.
#7 by The Burd on May 5, 2011 - 6:34 pm
Sorry I know but 4 would be good and I am rubbish at predictions….
#8 by Simon on May 5, 2011 - 6:21 pm
I think somebody has been reading too many nonsense polls.
#9 by The Burd on May 5, 2011 - 6:33 pm
Yep I am all polled out….
#10 by Richard on May 5, 2011 - 7:00 pm
So you don’t want a bet on these predictions burd? Think Falkirk is defo Labour hold Cathie is well dug in there and a very popular local msp
#11 by Albalha on May 5, 2011 - 7:23 pm
I truly hope you’re wrong on GG, in basic terms he is well down, last I think, in the long regional voting form so hopefully he’ll be missed by enough people, fingers, toes indeed I’ve a’thin crossed.
#12 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 7:33 pm
I don’t have Galloway getting in – though it wouldn’t be hard. Reckon he’d need just under 10,000 to win the 7th seat, and I’m not sure he’ll be that far off that. Then it’ll depend on how well the other parties poll… its a scary prospect!
#13 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 7:37 pm
I was a hair’s breadth away from putting Galloway into mine to be fair. No party machine but one heck of an attention-grabber….
#14 by cynicalHighlander on May 5, 2011 - 7:34 pm
So somewhere between 54 and 59 for the SNP 4 to 8 Greens plus Margo makes a referendum in the balance.
scotlandvotes
#15 by Albalha on May 5, 2011 - 7:47 pm
GG is only an attention grabber because lazy media folks indulge him, look back at the coverage of his so called launch, the lack of criticism or detail of where and the tiny numbers of those who attended. Tsk, tsk.
Even K Roy in SR devoted a piece on how he thought GG would liven things up at Holyrood, dismal.
#16 by Colin on May 5, 2011 - 9:07 pm
I salute your indefatigability Albalha!
#17 by Indy on May 5, 2011 - 9:04 pm
Its a low turnout. .Rain has stopped play for many people.
#18 by cynicalHighlander on May 5, 2011 - 10:01 pm
Not up here in rural Moray busier than normal.