Better Nation

48 Comments

• #1 by Zoe Smith on May 5, 2011 - 6:40 am

  

  Good work and some interesting analysis over the campaign. I’d be willing to put some money on this round up being fairly spot-on.

  Sadly…..

  • #2 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 7:44 am

    

    I’ll try to put some money on some of it today!

• #3 by Colin on May 5, 2011 - 6:41 am

  

  If Joan McAlpine gets in I will be very pleased indeed. Same goes for George Kerevan.

• #4 by Citizen (Alan) Smart on May 5, 2011 - 6:44 am

  

  Great service – bu my hunch is you underestimte the SNP surge, its abilty to outperform Labour in the day. This would be a new phenomena, But we will see

  And no GG 4 Glasgow?

  And check out my brand new video – just out this morning. Kind of what I am talking about about Nulab could not come close, remotely

• #5 by Stuart on May 5, 2011 - 7:19 am

  

  No Galloway?

  • #6 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 7:44 am

    

    Have I missed Galloway & West Dumfries? I thought I had Alex Fergusson to win it.

    Oh… you meant George. No, I don’t think so. But given my numbers for Glasgow, he could get quite close… if he can pick up around 9,500-10,000 votes.

• #7 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2011 - 7:55 am

  

  You’ve missed out an SNP in your list order prediction for Mid Scotland & Fife!

  I’d love to think recent polls are correct and the SNP will be nearer 60 with Labour nearer 30, but I can’t fault much in these predictions. I’m hoping for a few big upsets, and for the Greens to up the pro-independence quotient. 54 + 6 + 1 = not enough. Unless the next Lib Dem leader realises their only way of staying relevant in Scottish politics is to back a referendum (albeit a multi-option one).

  • #8 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:05 am

    

    Everyone’s a critic eh? The LD I had should be SNP… I’ll fix it now. Can I plead I was tired when I was working on it?

    • #9 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2011 - 8:16 am

      

      You can plead, but whether or not we accept it is another matter entirely.

• #10 by James on May 5, 2011 - 8:11 am

  

  So in Lothian you reckon the LDs will get more than twice the Green vote, a feat they haven’t achieved since 1999? Curious.

  • #11 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:14 am

    

    How do you work that out? The numbers I’ve been working with (rough numbers folks!) reduced LD list vote in Lothians by around 6,000 and increased Greens by around 4,000. Thus LD figure was 30,000 & Green was 24,000. How is that twice the Green vote? I’d have them winning Edin Western fairly narrowly, and their list divisor being 15,000 – plenty to get a list seat – and well before the Greens would get a second one (at 12,000). What’s the issue?

    • #12 by James on May 5, 2011 - 8:17 am

      

      Oh, because I’ve had no sleep whatsoever. Still, if they beat us on the Lothians list it’ll be a good day for them. (not a prediction)

      • #13 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:22 am

        

        If the Green vote overtakes the Lib Dem vote in the Lothians (which would be a net turnaround of 16,000ish votes)… then we can throw all predictions out the window, since mine is based on a good night for the Greens and a bad night for the Lib Dems, not an epic night for the Greens and an epic-ly BAD night for the Lib Dems. That’d be huge for you guys – and, don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see it – I’m just not sure it’ll quite happen.

        • #14 by James on May 5, 2011 - 8:33 am

          

          Even though it did happen in 2003, when we were on 6.7% and they were on 11.8%, nationally?

          • #15 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:36 am

            

            James – I’m basing this on where you both are coming from at the moment. Like I say, if you beat them in Lothians, its a terrific night for you, a hellish night for them. It could happen, absolutely it could. 16,000 votes changing hands could happen – I guess we’ll find out soon enough now.

            What more do you want from me – I gave the Greens six seats!!!!

            • #16 by James on May 5, 2011 - 8:42 am

              

              I want the truth as you see it!

              But I’ve got a tenner says we beat them on the regional list (if only the bookies offered interesting odds of that sort).

              • #17 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:45 am

                

                Overall list – or just in Lothian?

              • #18 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:50 am

                

                Also – I missed a chance there. I should have responded with “You can’t handle the truth!”…

  • #19 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:14 am

    

    Incidentally, that’s with the Greens taking the first list seats and the LDs the sixth one.

• #20 by James on May 5, 2011 - 8:14 am

  

  Also, I assume that it’s educated guesswork using the master spreadsheet. So could you tell us what the model shows as the 2nd votes required for the final seat on each list?

  • #21 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:19 am

    

    You don’t ask for much, do you?

    My (loose) calculations based on educated guesswork, shifting around blocks of 500 votes, don’t read too much into it, caveat, caveat, etc…. the last seat in each region would be won on:

    Central: 12,700
    Glasgow: 10,167
    H&I: 9,286
    Lothian: 13,167
    MS&F: 13,000
    NE: 13,000
    South: 13,500
    West: 12,000

    Again – read nothing into this other than its my guesswork!

• #22 by Set In Darkness on May 5, 2011 - 8:32 am

  

  Good stuff . For the Lothians I have SNP for Midlothian and I have made a mistake on my spreadsheet for Edin South and I think the same as you. Hey ho.

• #23 by John Ruddy on May 5, 2011 - 9:00 am

  

  My only comment is that I think you have overestimated the Lib Dem vote in the North East. I reckon the SNP will win Aberdeenshire West – they seem to have piled in there locally in the last week or so.

  Plus in speaking to thousands of voters over the last couple of months, I have yet to find anyone who will admit that they willbe voting Lib Dem. Lots of ex-Lib Dems (many of whom are coming over to Labour) but none who say they will be voting that way this time.

  I think a fair number will simply not vote. Some will vote SNP, some will vote Labour, and some will vote Lib Dem. But the result will be loosing AW and NOT getting compensation on the list here.

  • #24 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 9:13 am

    

    I did consider that… but I did think having every seat yellow in the NE was a bit mental! It could happen though. Equally, I do think Lewis MacDonald has a better chance of hanging onto Aberdeen Central than the odds suggest (Kevin Stewart 1/7, LM 10/3).

    An electoral map which is yellow across H&I and NE – with only the Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands orange? Possible. My prediction isn’t far off it. We’ll see what Jeff suggests later!

    • #25 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2011 - 9:20 am

      

      More predictions? Very exciting. Unless his are the same as yours, of course!

      Is Mike “Let’s Get Ready To” Rumbles on the list for the Lib Dems? It would be a great result to see him booted out of Holyrood completely.

      • #26 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 9:24 am

        

        He’s second on the LD list in NE, so chances are if he loses the constituency because the LD vote collapses, he won’t be back. Pretty much win or bust I reckon.

        Jeff’s predictions are slightly different…

• #27 by Hamish on May 5, 2011 - 9:15 am

  

  I wonder if you are over-estimating the Tory results.
  I don’t see the LIb -Dems attracting all the blame for the coalition.

  • #28 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 9:26 am

    

    I wonder if I am. My theory is that the Tories have a core vote, which will vote Tory regardless. I don’t think it fluctuates that much – and Annabel’s pitch has been to core Tories – they are not trying to take votes from elsewhere, just shore up their own vote. For that reason, I don’t think government status affects them that much. They’ve a hard vote and it’ll stick.

    The Lib Dem vote, on the other hand, is soft. And those who haven’t been impressed with the coalition will leave in their droves.

    At least, that’s the logic. In practice? Who knows.

• #29 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 10:23 am

  

  I’d be interested in what would happen if Kenny McAskill loses his seat, which I am hoping for. 4 SNP list MPs in Lothians? If so, who would lose out on a list seat?

  • #30 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 10:33 am

    

    OK I assume, from a comment above, that the LDs would fall off the end if the SNP were to win a 4th list seat.

    • #31 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 10:35 am

      

      IF the SNP were to win a 4th list seat, it would be at the LD’s expense yes – but the Nats would have to increase their list vote and the Lib Dems one collapse. Which isn’t outwith the realms of possibility!

    • #32 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 10:36 am

      

      Ah – now I read the FA, I noticed the list order.

  • #33 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 10:33 am

    

    Okay… I stress this is on complete guesswork vis-a-vis numbers I’m working with.

    But if Labour win Edinburgh Eastern, the list seats would stay the same. The SNP wouldn’t be compensated on the list – Kenny McAskill would be re-elected at the top of the list and Colin Beattie would lose out. Net change is +1 Lab, -1 SNP. I though the Lib Dems might drop out, but they’d be about 2,000 votes ahead of the SNP for the last seat, should my numbers be anything near it.

    Obviously, heavily caveated, depending on actual vote levels etc etc…

    • #34 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 10:37 am

      

      Hah. There’s no escape from Kenny! X¬D

• #35 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 5, 2011 - 10:59 am

  

  54-41-18-9-6-1?

  I’d snap your hand off for that. I fear it will be closer, though. I suspect we’re going to see a lot of big swings to the SNP in Central Belt constituencies but not quite enough to unseat Labour, especially once those postal votes are counted. And the list can’t do much more to compensate than it did in 2007, so the SNP vote will go up significantly but without much to show for it.

  I fervently hope to be eating those words tomorrow, and we’re definitely in with a shout of some net gains north of Dunfermline. Fingers crossed. Hope beats fear.

  • #36 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:16 am

    

    If you think I’ve been a bit optimistic for the SNP, Jeff’s prediction later might be closer to your thinking. But with the way the polls are going…

    Incidentally, I think the STV poll overstated the SNP’s position considerably – and my figures are much closer to YouGov’s yesterday, I think.

    • #37 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 11:24 am

      

      I don’t know Malc, I have SNP gains down in Shetland and Orkney so, you know….

      Just joking, I do think you’ve over-egged the SNP a little bit but we’ll find out soon. And ironic given our hairdye/union jack bet!

      • #38 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 11:25 am

        

        And when should I pop mine up boss?

        (I realise I’m publicly letting on who wears the trousers in this blogging relationship but what the hay/hey)

        • #39 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:31 am

          

          Haha. I got nowhere near the 48 constituencies needed for that. And neither will you. Coz it won’t happen (right?!). Maybe I have over-egged it a bit – but not as much as STV did the other night! I’ve stuck my neck on the line on a couple of dodgy calls I think (Clydesdale, Renfrewshire North & West) which will be close fights but might go the other way. But if the polls are anywhere near it (and I’m not saying they are!) then the SNP have to win seats somewhere, and I see these as ones they’ll have to win.

          Fire away with yours whenever you like – maybe around noon, 12.30? Then Kate’s can go about 5ish?

          • #40 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 11:48 am

            

            Funnily enough, I think I’m more optimistic on the constituency vote than you are but pull the SNP down on the regional vote. I think they’ll benefit from FPTP tactical voting and then a correction of sorts will kick in.

            • #41 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:52 am

              

              Yeah – having seen your predictions (they’ll be up shortly!) I think that’s true. You’ve a lot of constituencies turning that I considered then thought “no way”…

              • #42 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 11:54 am

                

                I aim to be the first person to christen Marco Biagi the poster boy of the SNP surge, even if he did allegedly once admit that he had no chance of winning!

                Ok, will post up now….

• #43 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 5, 2011 - 11:09 am

  

  Type your comment here

  
  Malc:
  
  IF the SNP were to win a 4th list seat, it would be at the SNP’s expense

  Um…

  • #44 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:14 am

    

    Its Lib Dems (LDs). I changed it – thanks for pointing it out. You knew what I meant anyway!

• #45 by douglas clark on May 5, 2011 - 11:17 am

  

  Malc,

  Interesting as always.

  Just wondering how your calculator deals with Strathkelvin & Beasden? There was an independent candidate who stood last time around who polled, IIRC around 7000 votes on a ‘Save Stobhill’ platform. There is no independent candidate this time around.

  These folk are obviously keen enough to vote, and it seems to me that they are unlikely to vote for Labour, who were accused of wanting to mess with the NHS. I’d have thought almost all of that vote will now go to the SNP.

  It’s a kind of similar situation to the constituency where the Liberal candidate messed up his registration.

  Any thoughts?

  • #46 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:28 am

    

    The “independent Save Stobhill candidate” was actually the incumbent from 2003 – so had a history in the constituency as well. My calculator isn’t a calculator as such (well, it is, since it has formulas to work out the D’Hondt stuff) since the constituency stuff is simply looking at the notional element from 2007 vote, working out whether parties are up or down since then, considering a bit of local factors, incumbency, list MSPs standing, etc… then just taking an outright guess at what will happen!

    I suppose what I’m saying is, there’s really no way to model it. Strathkelvin & Bearsden will be a seat to keep an eye on – for the sake of the 7,000 voters from 2007 who don’t have a candidate this time around. I suspect it’ll be a Labour hold (since they took it back from independent hands in 2007 – and as such, kind of have “momentum” there, if such a thing exists from 4 years ago!) but will watch the figures closely. There is a 3,500 majority to overcome there.

    Clydesdale I’ve gone for the SNP for a couple of reasons: an incumbent list MSP challenging (who has a high-ish profile), a local issue (an incinerator plant) which has given her a bit of traction (according to my sources!), the lack of a Lib Dem candidate and a notional majority of just over 1,000. Obviously you can make any case you like either way – but these are my predictions and that’s my judgement call!

• #47 by douglas clark on May 5, 2011 - 12:00 pm

  

  Malc,

  Thanks for the reply.

• #48 by Czkelly on May 5, 2011 - 12:50 pm

  

  My flatmate and I, geeky as ever, did a similar ‘educated’ guesswork prediction based on the strength of candidates, rationalising the polls somewhat, and pure instinct. We produced a prediction weeks ago and updated it last night. Here is a quick run down of what we came up with:

  Central Scotland
  Airdrie and Shotts – SNP
  Coatbridge – Labour
  Cumbernauld – SNP
  East Kilbride – Labour
  Falkirk East – SNP
  Falkirk West – SNP
  Hamilton – Labour
  Motherwell – Labour
  Uddingston – Labour

  Glasgow
  Anniesland – Labour
  Cathcart – Labour
  Kelvin – Labour
  Maryhill – Labour
  Pollok – Labour
  Provan – Labour
  Shettleston -Labour
  Southside – SNP
  Rutherglen – Labour

  Highlands and Islands
  Argyll – SNP
  Caithness – SNP
  Inverness – SNP
  Moray – SNP
  Western Isles – SNP
  Orkney – Lib Dem
  Shetland – Lib Dem
  Skye – SNP

  Lothian
  Almond – SNP
  E Central – SNP
  E Eastern – SNP
  N + Leith – Labour
  Pentlands – Tory
  E Southern – Tory
  E Western – Lib Dem
  Linlithgow – SNP
  Midlothian – Labour

  Mid Scotland and Fife
  Clackmannanshire – SNP
  Cowdenbeath – Labour
  Dunfermline – Labour
  Kirkcaldy – Labour
  Glenrothes – SNP
  N. E. Fife – Lib Dem
  Perthshire N – SNP
  Perthshire S – SNP
  Stirling – SNP

  NE Scotland
  Aberdeen C – SNP
  Aberdeen Don- SNP
  Aberdeen S – SNP
  Aberdeen E – SNP
  Aberdeen W – Lib Dem
  Angus N – SNP
  Angus S – SNP
  Banffshire – SNP
  Dundee E – SNP
  Dundee W – SNP

  S Scotland
  Ayr – Tory
  Carrick – Labour
  Clydesdale – SNP
  Dumfriesshire – Labour
  East Lothian – Labour
  Ettrick – Tory
  Galloway – SNP
  Kilmarnock – Labour
  Midlothian S – SNP

  W Scotland
  Clydebank – Labour
  Cunningham N – Labour
  Cunningham S – Labour
  Dumbarton – Labour
  Eastwood – Tory
  Greenock – Labour
  Paisley – Labour
  Renfrewshire N + W – Labour
  Renfrewshire S – Labour
  Strathkelvin – Labour

  So Constituency results would be:
  SNP – 32
  Labour – 31
  Tory – 5
  Lib Dem – 5

  Regional:
  SNP – 21
  Labour – 13
  Tory – 11
  Lib Dem – 3
  Green – 7
  Margo – 1

  Totals-
  SNP – 53
  Labour – 44
  Tory – 16
  Lib Dem – 8
  Green – 7
  Margo – 1

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