Better Nation

54 Comments

• #1 by Dani on May 5, 2011 - 12:09 pm

  

  I very much hope Midlothian North and Musselburgh and Dunfermline go Labour! I don’t think thats too unrealistic a hope.

  • #2 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 12:16 pm

    

    I have both of them in the red column. Jeff has them both yellow. Only one of us can be right (or we can both be right once!).

    • #3 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 12:19 pm

      

      Or the Lib Dems will win Dunfermline and we’ll both look like monkeys….

  • #4 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 12:17 pm

    

    Hi Dani,

    not unrealistic a hope but I wouldn’t be overly optimistic. Midlothian North is one of many tight calls but there is a notional 1,493 majority from 2007, there are 4,000 Lib Dem votes that I am judging will lean more to SNP than Labour (for those that move away from LDs), the SNP candidate (who stood in the constituency in the GE last year) arguably has a bigger local profile than the Labour candidate who is not an incumbent so, all in all, given what the polls were saying I felt I had to mark this seat as SNP.

    A similar rationale with Dunfermline but with more focus on the 9,000 2007 Lib Dem voters who could swing for the SNP more than Labour, and road tolls perhaps being a factor here too. I think Dunfermline is more likely to go Labour than Midlothian North is admittedly though.

• #5 by Douglas McLellan on May 5, 2011 - 12:19 pm

  

  I like your number better than Malc’s but I have to wonder about Dunfermline. Jim Tolson will get fewer votes than Labour but do you think that the SNP will push him to 3rd?

  • #6 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 12:21 pm

    

    His Lib Dem number is only 1 more than mine!

    • #7 by Douglas McLellan on May 5, 2011 - 12:56 pm

      

      I am aware of that. Lol. But every seat counts! At its a 12.5% increase on your figure.

• #8 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 12:32 pm

  

  SNP winning Edinburgh Central – never. Just can’t see it happening.

  • #9 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 1:04 pm

    

    Possibly my most outlandish prediction but I don’t see the Lib Dems winning it and if many of those 8,679 Lib Dem votes go to SNP, and Marco wins much of the coveted student vote, I think he will be in the hunt even from notional 3rd place.

    Partly, I just like the idea of a shocked and delighted Marco delivering a victory speech that he clearly, and admittedly quite understandably, hasn’t prepared. Could be great tv and that’s why he’s my predicted SNP poster-person of 2011…. (vis-a-vis Joe Fitzpatrick from 2007)

    • #10 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 1:09 pm

      

      I wonder how late we have to stay up til, to experience the Twigg 2011 moment of Marco Biagi getting elected…?

      • #11 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 1:27 pm

        

        Some people would say another 13 hours, others would say at least 5 years and 13 hours…. 😉

        • #12 by aonghas on May 6, 2011 - 7:06 am

          

          Unexpected!

    • #13 by Una on May 5, 2011 - 9:54 pm

      

      Likely or not, I love your Marco prediction, it’d really brighten up the night 🙂
      And Linda Fabiani of course – that would be marvellous.

      It’s going to be really tight I think, and closer than polls predict as you say. Many nerves a-jangling now…

• #14 by Aidan Skinner on May 5, 2011 - 12:40 pm

  

  If Labour lose Glasgow Kelvin and we swap Pauline McNeill for Hanzala Malik the parliament will be poorer for it. 🙁

  • #15 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 12:59 pm

    

    You may say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment (etc etc)

    That said, I still have Pauline McNeill’s less than graceful victory speech ringing in my ears from 2007. I’m not sure I fancy a second blast….

    • #16 by Doug Daniel on May 5, 2011 - 1:28 pm

      

      Which female Glasgow candidate will give the sore-loser/winner speech this year? My money’s on Johann Lamont.

      • #17 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 1:32 pm

        

        That’s a great question…. (in a mean-spirited kind of way I suppose)

        Jackie Baillie

    • #18 by oldchap on May 5, 2011 - 1:32 pm

      

      I remember thinking the same thing at the time.

• #19 by Set In Darkness on May 5, 2011 - 1:11 pm

  

  2 Greens in Glasgow? okay.
  + a nearly Lothians LibDem wipeout. Harsh (not the first time harsh, Jeff and Libdem have been used in the same sentence)

• #20 by Dani on May 5, 2011 - 1:23 pm

  

  I agree that the SNP candidate is more well known in Midlothian itself, and is already a counillor there, but Labour support seems quite strong at the moment and they did get a big increase at last years general election.

  I know in Dunfermline the Labour candidate has been out on the doors every day and from what i’ve heard from constituents they haven’t had as much contact from other parties. However, if this will make a difference or not… we will have to wait and see!

  • #21 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 1:28 pm

    

    Forgive my cynicism, but I often detect an inverse correlation between the claims of how great a response a candidate is getting on the doors and their likelihood of winning the seat.

• #22 by Dani on May 5, 2011 - 1:30 pm

  

  I know, but one can hope!

• #23 by oldchap on May 5, 2011 - 1:31 pm

  

  Thanks for all the detailed analysis and predictions. Looks set to be a fun night, it’s a shame I’m not in Scotland to be part of it all. I don’t imagine English TV coverage of the Scottish counts will be all that good 🙁 Good thing the web’s around.

• #24 by Fiona on May 5, 2011 - 2:06 pm

  

  Nice predictions.

  My hope of removing Mike Rumbles from my home is yet again vanished, however the SNP will hopefully push him.

  I also would LOVE to see a shocked Marco face and speech, not just because I have voted in Edinburgh Central.

  For Glasgow you have 2 SNP List down but 3 names?

  Exciting Times!

  • #25 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 2:23 pm

    

    Thanks Fiona, I’ve removed the third name as I see SNP getting 5 Glasgow seats (3 FPTP, 2 region)

    For Edinburgh Southern, I guess my prediction is swayed by a couple of friends I know who live there. They are remaining steadfastly tightlipped about who they’re voting for and I suspect it’s a tactical Lib Dem vote on the back of Mike Pringle’s highly persuasive leaflets. I think the Lib Dem vote is artificially low as I suspect they are kind of the new Tories, some people don’t want to admit they’ll be voting for them….!

    • #26 by Catherine on May 5, 2011 - 2:58 pm

      

      Having seen the campaign and the numbers, Labour will Edinburgh Southern. As for Edinburgh Central, Sarah Boyack would be huge loss there. Very hopeful of getting two good results in these seats.

      • #27 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 3:03 pm

        

        Can’t argue with close-to-the-ground evidence Catherine. We’ll find out soon on Edinburgh Southern and I won’t die of shock if I’m wrong of course…

        Sarah Boyack probably attracts cross-party support more than most MSPs to be fair aswell….

        • #28 by jim jepps on May 5, 2011 - 4:12 pm

          

          Would Sarah Boyack be a loss? I mean she’s on the list after all… mind you I didn’t vote for her in central this morning

      • #29 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 4:53 pm

        

        I’ve got both going red as well.

• #30 by Limesmoothie on May 5, 2011 - 2:34 pm

  

  Iain Gray to hold on in East Lothian? Would be the Portillo moment.

• #31 by Fiona on May 5, 2011 - 2:36 pm

  

  Sorry I meant Mike Rumbles as in West Aberdeenshire, former WAK. Although good for me from Stonehaven, we will now be represented by a SNP MSP in North Angus and Mearns (which I strongly object too, we live in Aberdeenshire not Angus or Mearns…rant rant rant)

  Last time (bias I know, my Dad was the Election Agent) there was a 12% swing to the SNP so I think there is scope for the SNP to come close to Rumbles. But then boundary changes makes it difficult to predict. You are the predictor, not me!

  • #32 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 2:50 pm

    

    Whoops! I’ve mixed up Rumbles and Pringle many times already today. Yeah, I’m a bit out of the loop in terms of Aberdeen so I’m going with incumbency there.

    A 12% swing last time is a lot but has the SNP maxed out? They still need another 2,100 votes to take this from Mike. I personally don’t see it.

• #33 by Czkelly on May 5, 2011 - 2:37 pm

  

  SNP East Kilbride?! I hope you’re right but I’d be highly surprised.

  • #34 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 2:53 pm

    

    Linda Fabiani’s a well kent face in EK now and an MSP (former Minister) into the bargain. Conversely, the negativity Andy has shown will mean that his raised profile could actually count against him. Close, but SNP by a nose.

• #35 by cynicalHighlander on May 5, 2011 - 3:02 pm

  

  I would like to see Rumbles removed, Purvis purged and Tavish trounced by the Independent Fox who is chasing him hard.

  • #36 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 3:06 pm

    

    Good shout on Billy Fox. I was tempted to put him in as a shock win in Shetland but knew I’d be really pushing it if so…..

• #37 by Brian Nicholson on May 5, 2011 - 3:02 pm

  

  I have reviewed both projections and feel that both overestimate the Labour vote. I feel that today you will see an weak Labour vote due to a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the leader or campaign. This will result in strong gains by the SNP in the constituencies and the Greens on the list.

  Here are my projections in a similar format as published.

  Central Scotland

  Airdrie & Shotts – SNP (Alex Neil)
  Coatbridge & Chryston – Labour (Elaine Smith)
  Cumbernauld & Kilsyth – SNP (Jamie Hepburn)
  East Kilbride – SNP (Linda Fabiani)
  Falkirk East – SNP (Angus McDonald)
  Falkirk West – SNP (Michael Matheson)
  Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse Labour (Tom McCabe)
  Motherwell & Wishaw – Labour (John Pentland)
  Uddingston & Bellshill – Labour (Michael McMahon)
  List: 3 SNP (Christina McKelvie, Richard Lyle, John Wilson), 2 Labour (Siobhan McMahon, Mark Griffin), 1 Conservative (Margaret Mitchell) and 1 Green (Kirsten Robb).
  REGIONAL TOTAL – SNP 5/3=8, LABOUR 4/2=6, CONSERVATIVE 0/1=1, GREEN 0/1=1
  Glasgow

  Anniesland – Lab (Bill Butler)
  Cathcart – SNP (James Dornan)
  Kelvin –SNP (Sandra White)
  Maryhill & Springburn – Lab (Patricia Ferguson)
  Pollok – Lab (Johann Lamont)
  Provan – Lab (Paul Martin)
  Rutherglen – Lab (James Kelly)
  Shettleston – Lab (Frank McAveety)
  Southside – SNP (Nicola Sturgeon)
  List: 4 SNP (Humza Yousaf, Bob Doris, Bill Kidd, Sid Khan,), 1 Conservative (Ruth Davidson) and 2 Green (Patrick Harvie, Martha Wardrop)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 3/4=7, LABOUR 6/0=6, GREEN 0/2=2, CONSERVATIVE 0/1=1
  Highlands & Islands

  Argyll & Bute – SNP (Michael Russell)
  Caithness, Sutherland & Ross – SNP (Rob Gibson)
  Inverness & Nairn – SNP (Fergus Ewing)
  Moray – SNP (Richard Lochhead)
  Na h’Eileanan an Iar – SNP (Alasdair Allan)
  Orkney Islands – LD (Liam McArthur)
  Shetland Islands – LD (Tavish Scott)
  Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch – SNP (Dave Thompson)
  List: 3 Labour (Rhoda Grant, David Stewart, Linda Stewart), 1 SNP (John Finnie), 2 Conservative (Jamie McGrigor, Mary Scanlon) and 1 Green
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 6/1=7, LABOUR 0/3=3, LIB DEM 2/0=2, CONSERVATIVE 0/2=2, GREEN 0/1=1
  Lothian

  Almond Valley – SNP (Angela Constance)
  Edinburgh Central – SNP (Marco Biagi)
  Edinburgh Eastern – SNP (Kenny MacAskill)
  Edinburgh Northern & Leith – Lab (Malcolm Chisholm)
  Edinburgh Pentlands – Con (David McLetchie)
  Edinburgh Southern – Lab (Paul Godzik)
  Edinburgh Western – SNP (Colin Keir)
  Linlithgow – SNP (Fiona Hyslop)
  Midlothian North & Musselburgh – SNP (Colin Beattie)
  List: 1 SNP (Shirley-Anne Somerville), 2 Labour (Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale), 1 Lib Dem (Margaret Smith), 1 Conservative (Gavin Brown), 1 Green (Alison Johnstone) and 1 Independent (Margo Macdonald)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 6/1=7, LABOUR 2/2=4, LIB DEM 0/1=1, CONSERVATIVE 1/1= 2, GREEN 0/1= 1, IND 0/1=1
  Mid Scotland & Fife

  Clackmannanshire & Dunblane – SNP (Keith Brown)
  Cowdenbeath – Lab (Helen Eadie)
  Dunfermline – SNP (William Walker)
  Kirkcaldy – Lab (Marilyn Livingston)
  Mid-Fife & Glenrothes – SNP (Tricia Marwick)
  North-East Fife – LD (Iain Smith)
  Perthshire North – SNP (John Swinney)
  Perthshire South & Kinross-shire – SNP (Roseanna Cunningham)
  Stirling – SNP (Bruce Crawford)
  List: 2 Labour (John Park, Claire Baker), 1 SNP (Annabelle Ewing), 1 Lib Dem (Willie Rennie), 2 Conservative (Murdo Fraser, Elizabeth Smith) and 1 Green (Mark Ruskell)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 6/1=7, LABOUR 2/2=4, LIB DEM 1/1=2, CONSERVATIVE 0/2=2, GREEN 0/1=1
  North-East Scotland

  Aberdeen Central – SNP (Kevin Stewart)
  Aberdeen Donside – SNP (Brian Adam)
  Aberdeen South & North Kincardine – SNP (Maureen Watt)
  Aberdeenshire East – SNP (Alex Salmond)
  Aberdeenshire West – SNP (Dennis Robertson)
  Angus North & Mearns – SNP (Nigel Don)
  Angus South – SNP (Graeme Dey)
  Banffshire & Buchan Coast – SNP (Stewart Stevenson)
  Dundee City East – SNP (Shona Robison)
  Dundee City West – SNP (Joe Fitzpatrick)
  List: 3 Labour (Richard Baker, Jenny Marra, Lewis McDonald), 2 Lib Dem (Alison McInnes, Mike Rumbles), 1 Conservative (Alex Johnstone,) and 1 Green (Martin Ford)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 10/0=10, LABOUR 0/3=3, LIB DEM 0/2=2, CONSERVATIVE 0/1=1, GREEN 0/1=1
  South Scotland

  Ayr – Con (John Scott)
  Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley – SNP (Adam Ingram)
  Clydesdale – SNP (Aileen Campbell)
  Dumfriesshire – Con (Gillian Dykes)
  East Lothian – SNP (David Berry)
  Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire – Con (John Lamont)
  Galloway & West Dumfries – SNP (Aileen McLeod)
  Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley – SNP (Willie Coffey)
  Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale – SNP (Christine Grahame)
  List: 1 SNP (Joan McAlpine), 3 Labour (Claudia Beamish, Graeme Pearson, Marie Rooney), 1 Conservative (Derek Brownlee,) 1 Lib Dem (Jim Hume), and 1 Green (Alis Ballance)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 6/1=7, LABOUR 0/3=3, CONSERVATIVE 3/1=4, LIB DEM 0/1=1, GREEN 0/1=1
  West Scotland

  Clydebank & Milngavie – Lab (Des McNulty)
  Cunninghame North – SNP (Kenny Gibson)
  Cunninghame South – Lab (Irene Oldfather)
  Dumbarton – SNP (Iain Robertson)
  Eastwood – Con (Jackson Carlaw)
  Greenock & Inverclyde – Lab (Duncan McNeil)
  Paisley – Lab (Evan Williams)
  Renfrewshire North & West – SNP (Derek MacKay)
  Renfrewshire South – Lab (Hugh Henry)
  Strathkelvin & Bearsden – SNP (Fiona McLeod)
  List: 3 SNP (Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Stuart McMillan), 1 Lab (Mary Fee), 1 Conservative (Annabel Goldie) 1 Green (Steen Parish) and 1 Lib Dem (Ross Finnie)
  REGIONAL TOTALS – SNP 4/3=7, LABOUR 5/1=6, CONSERVATIVE 1/1=2, LIB DEM 0/1=1. GREEN 0/1=1
  HOLYROOD FINAL SEAT ALLOCATION
  SNP 46/14 60
  LABOUR 19/16 35
  CONSERVATIVE 5/10 15
  LIB DEM 3/6 9
  GREEN 0/9 9
  IND 0/1 1

  • #38 by jim jepps on May 5, 2011 - 4:15 pm

    

    Greens on 9? Well, if true I win the office sweepstake (hurrah!) but I think that might be a touch over optimistic… I’m very willing to be proved wrong.

    • #39 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 4:56 pm

      

      I have 6 – is that closer to your prediction?

      • #40 by jim jepps on May 5, 2011 - 5:09 pm

        

        It is closer 🙂

  • #41 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 4:55 pm

    

    And there was us worrying that we’d been overstating the SNP’s vote! I think your thinking is more in line with the STV poll than the YouGov one. I agree Labour have been pretty negative and folk haven’t responded to it… but some of the seats are red through and through, and I can’t see them deserting Labour yet. Still, this might be a watershed election…

    We’ll know in around 12 hours which of us is right!

• #42 by Gordon on May 5, 2011 - 3:05 pm

  

  Having done 5 hours of exit polling I think you are underestimating the swing to the SNP (so far). Its possible that Labours voters will join a tea time rush but right now the SNP are well ahead in the polling station I have been on in Glasgow Anniesland.

  One station – can’t extrapolate – etc etc but it is a very big swing more like the last STV poll and then some.

  • #43 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 3:18 pm

    

    Fascinating, thanks for sharing!

    (SNP reportedly ahead in Anniesland? Blimey….)

    • #44 by James Harrison on May 5, 2011 - 5:19 pm

      

      I was out delivering in Anniesland yesterday for the Lib Dems and there were an awful lot of Green window posters around.

      Considering I spent 6 hours delivering, got sunburn, and have an exam tomorrow the Libs better get a bloody seat on the Glasgow list

• #45 by Tormod on May 5, 2011 - 5:02 pm

  

  I live in Dunfermline, I’ve had the usually bumf through the door but I haven’t had anybody knock on it yet.

  I know why that is, I live in the Duloch / DEX and our street is not classed as “core” vote by labour and no sign or libdems either.

  For such a notional tight race between the two you would have thought they would have knocked on a few doors etc.

  Thats what I get for being an apsirational man with a family. I really hope Bill Walker gets a large vote.

• #46 by Alasdair on May 5, 2011 - 5:04 pm

  

  In Glasgow East the SNP were well behind in exit polls up till late afternoon. Then working, aspirational people went out to vote and we quickly caught up. If ahead now it points to a Labour collapse.

  • #47 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 5:27 pm

    

    You see, I try not to think of myself as overly partisan but then I read a comment like yours Alasdair and I get a little bit light-headed with excitement.

    All sorts of theories will emanate before results are announced so I guess believing it when seeing it may be best….

• #48 by AliMiller on May 5, 2011 - 7:15 pm

  

  A lot of students in Aberdeen voting SNP I think, could make all the difference in a tight marginal. Not much posters ect about on King Street or Union Street which is surprising.

  Absolutely buzzing with excitement for tonight!

  Pray the postal votes have been well guarded though!

• #49 by mav on May 5, 2011 - 8:09 pm

  

  off topic. Every time I view the comments on my phone here, about a quarter of them are obscured by something telling me to update websnapr. I can’t do anything about it. Any ideas?

  Interesting that everyone seems to think alex fergussons reward for four years as presiding officer will be to lose his previously safe seat. I’ve said before that will mean no constituency MSP will do that role in a hurry. That said, I’m never sure why it has to be an MSP. Strikes me its perfect for a former MSP, who knows the workings of parliament but isn’t beholden. Next could be Robin Harper, Jack McConnell, or even Iain Gray…

  • #50 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 8:12 pm

    

    I think he’ll hold on. There’s a majority of around 2,500 I think. I think he’ll hold.

  • #51 by Jeff on May 5, 2011 - 8:12 pm

    

    Not sure Andrew. I’m not the techiest but will try to look into it.

    I guess the PO role is usually a person’s last role in politics so re-election is less of a concern for most who take it on. To be honest, I don’t have him down to lose his seat because he was Presiding Officer though, it’s just because he has a thin majority and the SNP is on the charge.

    I suspect there are legal reasons why a PO has to be an existing MSP (democratic mandate or something) and I think there are plenty of good options for who will take the role next.

• #52 by Dani on May 5, 2011 - 11:44 pm

  

  
  null:
  
  I live in Dunfermline, I’ve had the usually bumf through the door but I haven’t had anybody knock on it yet.
  I know why that is, I live in the Duloch / DEX and our street is not classed as “core” vote by labour and no sign or libdems either.
  For such a notional tight race between the two you would have thought they would have knocked on a few doors etc.
  Thats what I get for being an apsirational man with a family. I really hope Bill Walker gets a large vote.

  That’s funny, I know the Labour team have been out every single day morning and night trying to cover every street. I know cause I’ve been there myself! Sorry for missing you if we did!

• #53 by Gordon on May 6, 2011 - 9:43 am

  

  RE #42 Yesterday at 3.03pm I posted to this discussion:

  >>Having done 5 hours of exit polling I think you are underestimating the swing to the SNP (so far). Its possible that Labours voters will join a tea time rush but right now the SNP are well ahead in the polling station I have been on in Glasgow Anniesland.

  One station – can’t extrapolate – etc etc but it is a very big swing more like the last STV poll and then some.<<

  Turns out it could be extrapolated – the SNP exit poll was showing 3-1 over labour in the more affluent part of Anniesland and then the rain came down and we though it would result in a lower turnout in the stronger labour areas and even though we could hardly believe it, we knew Anniesland was in play.

  By the time we won by 7 votes I was surprised is wasn't a hundred.

  Thanks for all the interesting analysis and predictions.

  Gordon

  • #54 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:25 pm

    

    Fair play Gordon – you called it. We (I) was not expecting this at all. Humble pie for me!

    What an incredible, amazing result.

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