1148 Hopping on here just to post up what I think will be the final result based on 3 regions reported and most seats now in:
SNP – 52+17 = 69
Lab – 15+23 = 38
Con – 3+12 = 15
LD – 3+1 = 4
Green – 0+2 = 2
How can the SNP get 69 seats under d’hondt? Well, mostly it is the collapse in Lib Dem and disappointing Green vote that is helping out, freeing up those 6th and 7th regional seats to be gobbled up by the hungry Nat machine. I even have the SNP to take a regional seat in North East despite taking a clean sweep there.
And what a disappointing night for the Greens, I don’t think they will have a better chance than this to step up to being the 4th party. Sorry James!
0800 I was hoping for a few more results before I wrapped this up… but I think the chat is done for now. Â We’ll go away and do some analysis on what has been an incredible night. Â Thanks for joining us – let’s chat again soon!
Malc, Jeff & Kate (and James, who was with us in spirit!).
0727 And the final North-East constituency of Aberdeen Donside also goes to the SNP… which means all 10 are yellow. Â That’s an incredible result – and they might yet pick up one on the list. Â Surely not?
0715 But before that, Aberdeen South & North Kincardine goes to Maureen Watt and the SNP. Â Another one!
0706 Speaking of the Lothians, the regional list result will be announced soon I think.
0700 Congrats to Malcolm Chisholm – the only non-SNP MSP elected in a Lothian constituency.
0659 And Colin Beattie delivers a majority of almost 3,000 for the SNP in Midlothian North & Musselburgh.
0650 Kevin Stewart wins Aberdeen Central for the SNP from Labour’s Lewis MacDonald. Â Just as I was about to say things had gone a bit quiet. Â Chalk up one more in the yellow column.
0639 Hugh O’Donnell only took 821 votes in Central. Â So the Lib Dem collapse wasn’t confined to current members – but former ones as well!
0638 Just beat the BBC to it…
0635 Credit to Jeff – he’s been talking this up through his figures most of the night. Â I’m late to the party I know!
0632 I know the panelists are not talking about it yet – and downright avoiding it – but I’m going to say it now. Â Based on my numbers, I think that the SNP ARE HEADING FOR A MAJORITY IN THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT.
I can hardly believe I wrote the above.
0629 Central list announced as 3 Labour, 3 SNP and 1 Conservative.
0623 The Glasgow list is as previously suggested. Â In order of election:Â Hanzala Malik (Lab), Humza Yousaf (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Patrick Harvie (Grn), Drew Smith (Lab), Bob Doris (SNP), Anne McTaggert (Lab)
0621 John Scott makes Ayr a Conservative HOLD.  A rare bright spot for them.
0617 There are still 19 constituency seats still to declare.
0610 News out of Glasgow is that the list looks like this: 3 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 Conservative and 1 Green. Â But that’s not confirmed yet.
0603 I was going to make a list of the seats the SNP have won so far, but the list is just too big! Â The SNP are currently on 37 constituency seats. Â They only won 21 in 2007… and we’ve still got the Highlands & Islands, most of Mid-Scotland & Fife and a couple of Aberdeen seats to go…
0601 And let’s start with another massive one. Â Clydebank and Milngavie is an SNP GAIN. Â Gil Paterson takes it from Labour’s Des McNulty. Â Incredible stuff.
0600 Malc’s back. Â I’ve now been up for 24 hours and I don’t feel like it. Â In actual fact, I feel like I’ve been dreaming all day. Â What has happened over the last 8 hours since polls closed?!
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0555 And just before I hand over to Malc – another result Carrick and Cumnock Doon Valley – guess what? an SNP GAIN. Adam Ingram who has been a first class SNP Government Minister for children wins a seat of his own. Well deserved and personally, hope he is back as Minister for Children and Early Years. And can really push through his plans for transformational change.
0550 Well look’s like the polls were right and we sceptics were wrong. Swing to SNP is huge.
0543 Edinburgh Central result – SNP GAIN. Sarah Boyack, MSP since 1999 and lifelong devolution supporter, out. And sympathy for Alex Cole-Hamilton who has put his heart and soul into this seat. And is a good guy working for social justice for children. But Marco Biagi is a very fine victor. Extremely talented, hard working and utterly deserving of the victory.
0535 The SNP are sitting on 30 – yes, 30 – constituency seats and many more still to come. An overall majority is definitely within touching distance.
0530 Okay think Labour leadership between Jackie Baillie and Ken Macintosh – two who triumphed against all the odds. Both managed to make their votes go up. Gives them a huge advantage over all the rest.
0528 Oh dear, Jim Wallace of Lib Dems, needs a break. Been on all night and tetchy and making spurious arguments. Paul Martin now being rude. Oh dear, oh dear.
0527 BREAKING – SNP GAIN Glasgow Anniesland. Labour concedes after how many recounts? Great result.
0525 Aberdeenshire West – Lib Dem HOLD! Kidding! just seeing who is still awake?! No, it is an SNP GAIN. And Dennis Robertson who has been a tireless disability campaigner and has a visual impairment will make a wonderful MSP. As a result of the natural hegemony being challenged, we are likely to have better gender balance, ethnic minority MSPs, and more disabled MSPs than ever before. And all of that can only be a good thing.
0523 Chisholm holds on for Labour in Edinburgh Northern and Leith – and reward for independence of mind, betraying party whip on occasion and being a decent constituency MSP
0522 Yes James Mitchell on STV, I’m flagging too. Wise words from Margo Macdonald – parliament from hell. Lots of newbies, no experience – no bad thing in itself – but huge issues coming our way.
o515 Kenneth Gibson who is rumoured to have won Cunninghame North in 2007 because ballot papers got wet on the journey over from Arran returned with a 6000 majority. Has been a hard working constituency MSP and a well deserved return and increased majority.
0508 Refnrewshire North – another SNP GAIN! Delighted to see all the gang that made my life a misery – lol! – when they were the SNP YSI coming of age! Jesting. Loved working with them years ago and delighted to see Derek and George Adam fulfil their potential. Already telt George Adam that he owes me a tea and scone!
0506 The burd is back! And listening to Johann Lamont whose voice is breaking. I feel for Johann, I have worked with her on a number of issues – we don’t always agree! But she is a good and decent person and I feel for her. But Scottish Labour is now realising its number is up. And time to do the rethink they did not do after 2007. Scotland will be a better place politically for this shift
0500 – Edinburgh South being announced now – SNP beat Labour by about 700 votes, winning from 4th position. Incredible.
0458 – SNP win Paisley by a few hundred votes. I had Labour down to win that by a few hundred until that result came in so a great result there to get over the line.
0456 – Malcolm Chisholm expected to hold Edinburgh Northern & Leith in contrast to national swing – just rewards for voting with his conscience in key votes?
0452 – Expected seat projection from my model: SNP – 53, Labour – 16, LD – 2, Tory – 2
In total – SNP – 63, Labour – 39, Con – 14, Greens – 8, Lib Dems – 4, Ind – 1
0448 – Tom Gordon is reporting that George Galloway has NOT won a seat in Glasgow. Labour looking good for two.
0444 – Fiona Hyslop has won Livingston by a good 4091 votes. The closest seat I have left is Kirkcaldy which I expect the SNP to win by 800 votes. It’s all starting to hinge on those list votes now as to whether the Nats can form a majority. Has the SNP vote held up? Will the Greens make remarkable gains given the Lib Dem collapse?
0437 – The SNP has won Edinburgh Western and there is a recount in Edinburth Northern & Leith
0436 – Reports are coming in of stockpiling of White Cider and MD2020 before the SNP’s minimum pricing Bill comes to the Parliament
0431 – A Labour activist has conceded that Labour have lost Cunninghame South to the SNP. Big win for the Nats that one.
0425 – Good news for Derek Brownlee, the Tories have not taken Dumfriesshire so the Finance Shadow Spokesperson can expect to stay on as a list MSP in the South
0422 – As suggested earlier, SNP has taken Edinburgh Pentlands from the Conservatives
0420 – Breaking! SNP take Strathkelvin. The shocks get bigger and bigger!
0419 – Fine speech from Alex Salmond, expect to see this over and over again – talking about no more the scaremongering of the Scottish people. “The SNP will represent all of Scotland just as all of Scotland makes the Scottish National Party”.
0415 – Apparently James (who sadly can’t be with us this evening) has 40/1 on John Park to be the next Labour leader and given Kate’s update at 03:56, it looks like very good value. Iain Gray refused to even concede the election an hour or so ago and the good news for Labour is that you don’t go to jail for carrying a knife because Iain Gray will be turfed out soon enough. The worrying thing for Labour really is not so much who the next leader may be but the quality of the MSPs that are coming in through the lists, the individuals who will have to step up from council bunfights to making quality legislation for Scotland. Will this be five years of a Labour team that has garduated too early? I do believe that Labour’s problems are only just beginning.
0412 – I’ve run the most uptodate numbers through my model, including Labour win in Motherwell by a very slim margin and I make the breakdown to be:
SNP – 53/10 = 63
Labour – 16/23 = 39
Con – 2/12 = 14
Green – 0/8 = 8
Lib Dem – 2/2 = 4
Ind = 1
This is based on a guess of the list vote of:
SNP – 42%
Labour – 30%
Con – 13%
Greens – 8%
Lib Dems – 6%
0409 – A mini-shock here perhaps but Alex Fergusson has won Galloway and West Dumfries. This suggests that some Tory-held seats may stay blue despite swings we are seeing in other seats. Bad news for Derek Brownlee who needs to get in on the list in the South, but he should be safe.
0407 A quick point on the Greens – Patrick Harvie would still be elected on 4% of the vote but with the Lib Dem collapse it looks set to be upwards of 8%. I think 8 Green MSPs at a minimum and with the SNP looking set to fall just short of 65 seats, it’s a great position for them.
0405 – Hi Andrew Sparrow here, taking over the liveblog…. Just joking, it’s a very tired Jeff but what a time to rejoin proceedings. Glasgow Cathcart goes SNP with James Dornan seeing Charlie Gordon off. I’m delighted for Dornan after the selection debacle for Glasgow North East by-election.
0401 BREAKING – Galloway looks certain to stay Conservative. Personally very disappointed.
0356 And while we have a breather… very interesting that John Park, the campaigns co-ordinator for Scottish Labour, deviated from the script. The line running was that Lib Dem vote collapsing and coalescing around the SNP. Which is stuff and nonsense. John Park came straight out and said this is not a good night, people have turned away from Labour and the party must learn lessons from this. Good for him. Pointless spinning just adds to the problem. A little honesty required. And he delivered the ground war the party needed – targeting, resources, activists. But was let down by the incompetence of the air war and the national campaign.
If there is one good thing to come out of this, it is that Labour will now have to do the revaluation of who they are and where they stand, the things they failed to do post 2007. It is an exciting time for Scottish politics, with an aspirational party heading close to an overall majority and a total re-examination and introspection by the second largest party, and the same for a key minority party.
It is all good.
0354 This is a remarkable result for Alex Salmond personally. He has finally achieved the breakthrough that the SNP, for years, has dreamed of. And as James Mitchell on STV points out, we haven’t even had results from the SNP heartlands of North East Scotland and Highlands and Islands, and Mid Scotland and Fife. The latter two count tomorrow morning.
0351 Lib Dems losing deposits all over Scotland. Tavish surely cannot continue as leader? But big story is not the Lib Dem meltdown, but the Labour heartland vote shifting over to the SNP.
0347 Coming thick and fast – Cumbernauld and Kilsyth GAIN for the SNP! And with a huge majority!! Somebody pinch me….
0344 Glasgow Shettleston – SNP GAIN! Can anyone believe what is happening?!
0344 Huge majority for Michael Matheson in Falkirk West. And Anniesland, if SNP takes it, means Bill Kidd who did not get high enough on the list to guarantee a return, might still get back!
0343 Can hardly keep up! STV just announced a recount in Anniesland with SNP up by 4 votes. And breaking that SNP takes Edinburgh Pentlands from the Tories. People, stay with this historic night – and much more to come tomorrow.
0341 Tavish Scott holds Shetland for Lib Dems but look at swing against him! Huge. Does not augur well for closer Lib Dem seats elsewhere. Also Liam McArthur holds Orkney but much reduced majority. Still he must have a shout of leadership surely?
0340 BREAKING the burd is officially rubbish at predictions! I hang my head in shame – should believe the polls, must do penance…
0338 Has Elaine Smith done enough to hold on in Coatbridge? Yes! And by a clear majority – one of the few of the night so far
0337 Iain Gray seems to concede defeat and seemingly to call a clean sweep in Edinburgh for SNP – surely not?!
0336 I am! Just in from STV – Galloway and West Dumfries stays Tory! Nooo!! But Labour to take Dumfriesshire!
0335 – Kate’s back
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0330 And the biggie… East Lothian. Iain Gray holds on. Â Just. Â Just. Â A majority of just 151. Wow. Â Nearly.
0329 SNP hold Falkirk West (Michael Matheson).
0328 Results flying in now. Â Shetland Islands is a Lib Dem hold. Â Tavish Scott safely back.
0325 Labour hold Greenock and Inverclyde with a majority of just 500. Â And finally, finally, the Lib Dems save a deposit! Â Duncan McNeil back for Labour there.
0323 Oh, and it looks like Cathcart is an SNP GAIN as well… where will this acid trip end?! Â Hearing Kelvin too… FOUR yellow seats in Glasgow? Â Mental.
0321 In the next half hour, hopefully we’ll get East Lothian, Paisley, Renfrewshire and Shettleston results. Â Each sounds like its on a knife edge.
0318 Oh and 9 seats announced so far. 8 Lib Dem candidates… and 8 lost deposits. Â Oh dear doesn’t even cover it.
0316 Alex Neil gets the prize for the first TV mention of a natural disaster to describe the results. Â “Political tsunami” was the phrase he used. Â He’s right – there’s a wave of yellow sweeping Labour faces away.
0311 Shona Robison returns in Dundee City East with 64% of the vote. Â I heard that on Radio Scotland but haven’t seen it on TV yet. Â Actually, just confirmed. Â Majority of 10,679!
0306 I also understand that the Shettleston seat has indeed gone the way of the SNP. Â We’ll soon find out I think, but it looks like John Mason has beaten out Frank McAveety.
0305 And another result… and a stonking win for the SNP. Â Glasgow Southside returns Nicola Sturgeon with a massive majority of 5,000-ish.
0302 Another big win for the SNP. Â Alex Neil makes Airdrie & Shotts an SNP GAIN. Â Majority of 2001.
0301 More rumours: Â Iain Gray hangs on in East Lothian, by around 200 votes. Â Meanwhile, SNP potential gain in Shettleston – it goes to a recount, as does Coatbridge & Chryston (according to Twitter). Â Again – stressing rumours.
0300 Two results to bring up to date. Â Labour get a notional GAIN in Eastwood and a sold-ish HOLD in Uddingston & Bellshill though the latter has a reduction in its majority to just 400 votes.
0259 Malc back at the helm!
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02:47 Mixed messages on East Lothian. Airdrie & Coatbridge Advertiser has a Labour source suggesting that Iain Gray has lost the seat. An ashen-faced Gray is on tv now.
02:45 Grant Thoms, SNP councillor, is claiming that Shettleston looks like it has fallen to John Mason. That would be massive and would see the Nats exceeding even its earlier results in East Kilbride and Hamilton. A strong personal vote for a popular man pushing the vote higher in this constituency perhaps.
02:42 The lowest turnout in Glasgow was in Maryhill and Springburn – just over 36%. Really quite poor. People are fighting and dying in Egypt, Syria, Libya and 64% of people can’t be arsed getting to a polling station? People need to get involved or else we get the campaign we deserve which, sadly, was politicians promising us the earth because the electorate didn’t want to be interested and know about the detail and learn about the personalities. Furthermore, I don’t think that turnout is going to tip the balance in the AV referendum somehow!
02:35 East Lothian result coming soon: 2007 notional result was Lab – 10,822, SNP – 8,713, Con – 6,032, LD – 5,822. The Tories may take too much of the vote for the SNP to win, but the SNP has two chances: (1) beat Labour on a straight Labour to SNP swing or (2) beat Labour by hoovering up most of that 5,822 Lib Dem vote. I think it must be on a knife edge; I’m predicting a recount. @journodave is hearing that Gray has scraped to a win – very reliable journo that one.
02:32 We have only had results from seats that were clear Labour vs SNP matchups. A very interesting dynamic will be whether supports of the SNP will tactically vote against Labour (Edinburgh Southern/Dumfriesshire/Eastwood) or whether they will back the SNP into 2nd or even 1st in many cases. From another perspective, East Lothian will give us a view as to whether the SNP can attract votes from a strong Tory 3rd place (Derek Brownlee is the Conservative candidate in East Lothian).
02:28 A Labour councillor has admitted at the count that Des McNulty may well lose his Clydebank and Milngavie seat. A surprise winner in all of this could be Ken McIntosh of course who is not up against the SNP as much as he is up against the Conservatives. His misfortune at not getting to challenge Renfrewshire could save him. And, Ken is a dark horse for the leadership if you ask me….
02:26 Mike Rumbles expected to lose seat to the SNP – BBC Scotland
02:21 9 minutes until East Lothian declares and a lot of people will be holding their betting slips hoping for an upset. Can we even call it an upset any more? Iain Gray was on air earlier claiming that his voteshare has gone up but even if he does win his seat and stays on as an MSP, his time as leader of the Labour group is surely over. So who may be next? John Park is a leading contender according to Malc, I think Sarah Boyack might be in with a chance and you can never rule out a new face from the inevtiable new crop coming in through the list. Early days but Scottish Labour probably need to ‘do a Cameron’ and find a personality that they can train up to represent the post-Salmond generation.
02:19 The first three gains so far have been delivered by SNP ladies. Great news for the gender bias of the Parliament.
02:13 I have my handy model here and as the results come in, I am taking an average of the swings for each party and applying that swing to the remaining seats. So far, after 4 seats called, the constituency voteshare is predicted to be: SNP – 48%, Lab – 30%, Con – 13%, LD – 4%. That would give seats of SNP – 60/6 = 66, Lab – 11/27 = 38, Con – 2/12 = 14, Grn 0/8 = 8 (based on 8% voteshare), LD – 0/2 = 2
Now, no Lib Dem or Tory constituencies have been called yet so there is a skewing in the above but we are right on the line of an SNP overall majority as results stand currently.
02:09 Here we go then, Jeff here taking over from Kate. And first of all we have the Clydesdale result. Well within the SNP’s grasp given earlier results….. Aileen Campbell – 14,391, Karen Gillon, 10,715. That’s a storming win for the SNP and another constituency in the bank. If the regional vote holds up, we’re talking a majority Parliament.
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02:00 Before handing over to Jeff, a couple of whispers – now looking definite for THREE seat gains in Glasgow. Clydesdale definitely gone. Strathkelvin and Bearsden looking shoogly and rumours now, too, of the SNP taking Cumbernauld and Kilsyth. And Airdrie and Shotts also looking a shoe-in for Alex Neil. So I’ll leave you with this thought from a friend and catch up with you all later:
*unbelievable the seat that sent Jennie Lee and John Smith to parliament in Westminster looks like it is lost to Labour in Scotland*
01:54 Whatever else, Iain Gray’s short reign as Labour leader is over. But who will be left to pick up the reins? With big hitters falling, it will be a case of last man or woman standing. David Whitton now seems a shoe-in. But did anyone else read John Curtice today in the Herald touting Richard Baker? No, really. Response of one Labour insider to that suggestion: *if Baker becomes labour leader, I’m defecting to the SNP!*
01:50 Alasdair Carmichael on STV right now putting the Westminster spin on these results – do these craiturs never learn? Not about Westminster but about Scotland
01:47 Anne Begg all but conceded that SNP will sweep the board across Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen. If their regional vote holds up they may still take list seats too – no doubt Jeff is busy calculating it all! But we are witnessing a seismic shift in Scottish politics. There is Conservative government at Westminster and heartlands in Lanarkshire did not go home but opted for the SNP offer. Remarkable
01:33 BREAKING The burdz intelligence comes good – TOM McCABE out in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. Christina McKelvie takes the seat for the SNP.
01:32 BREAKING *looking good* for the SNP and incumbent Willie Coffey in Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Kate: Hello people! So are we all set fair for an historic night in Scottish politics?
Well placed rumours suggesting that this is going to be worse night for Labour than first thought and this remarkable rumour from inside the South Lanarkshire count that not only Karen Gillon in trouble but also… Tom McCabe!
If these kind of swings are happening, even Iain Gray not safe. Not safe at all.
0130
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Malc:
0130 I’ve been on this for 2 and a half hours, so I’m passing the baton on to Kate for the next half hour or so. Â Jeff will take over at some point too – and then I’ll be back, possibly around 3ish. Â Lets keep each other going!
0126 Right – only 2 results, so let’s not go crazy yet… but its looking like an utter collapse for the Lib Dems, a fair shift of their vote going to the SNP, a bit of a gubbing for Labour and a massive night for the SNP.
0116 Next seat to declare is indeed East Kilbride. Â Linda Fabiani does indeed beat Andy Kerr. Â That’s an SNP GAIN. Â Absolutely massive result. Â Majority of 1,949. Â Another big swing to the SNP – 6.6%. Â And another lost deposit for the Lib Dems. Â Just 1.5% of the vote for them. Â Ouch.
0110 TV pictures suggest that Linda Fabiani may well have beaten Andy Kerr in East Kilbride. Â That’s massive. Â If substantiated. Â Massive. Â Andy Kerr isn’t on the list, so he’d be gone. Â And if Labour are facing a massive fall in seats… Andy Kerr would have been a contender for leader. Â Not looking good for Labour.
0101 Couple more rumours – again stress, rumours – Nicola Sturgeon likely to hold Southside with “substantially increased majority”, Sandra White will take Kelvin for the SNP (that’s apparently set for a recount). Â Cathcart will stay with Labour, and Shettleston too – though the majorities in both will be reduced. Â Another rumour that Alex Neil perhaps won’t have enough to take Airdrie & Shotts. Â But I don’t know if I agree on the last one – any thoughts?!
0055 First result of the night is Rutherglen – and James Kelly is re-elected for Labour (hold). Â Majority is 1,779 – down from notional majority of over 5,000. Â Big swing to the SNP. Â Is that story of the night? Â Also – Lib Dems lose their deposit in Rutherglen – is that the story of the night?!
0047 In the absence of any results, more rumour. Â From Edinburgh again. Â Lib Dems worried in 2 of three seats… which we thought was about right. Â But to the SNP, not to Labour. Â Which would, to quote my source, be ‘interesting’!
0028 Could do with a result soon to play with the figures. Â Rutherglen and East Kilbride are apparently up soon. Â Will we get a read on the rest of the night from these seats? Â Or can we extrapolate anything from them?
0015 So how close will any of our predictions be? Â Clydesdale looking like SNP at the moment. Â Aberdeen South & North Kincardine too. Â We won’t have to wait too long for East Kilbride… my sense is that Andy Kerr will hang on – but what do we think?
2358 And closer to my home… Edinburgh Central – whose candidates all participated in an online hustings for us a few weeks ago – is looking “interesting” according to a source of mine. Â Could Jeff’s prediction of an SNP win be on the cards? Â Or is “interesting” just “quite close but no cigar”? Â Too soon to say…
2351 Further to the text I got – a comment on Political Betting suggests Clydesdale has seen a 10% rise in SNP vote and Labour’s vote is down on their 2007 vote. Â Still rumour… but worrying signs for Labour?
2343 Just some chat off Twitter. Â Labour are apparently worried about Kelvin and though Charlie Gordon himself is confident, rumours are that they may also lose Cathcart. Â Alex Neil also apparently quite confident about Airdrie & Shotts… and a text rumour coming to me that the SNP are ‘looking good’ in Clydesdale. Â Obviously, far too early for anything… but that’s the chat for the moment.
2330 Like me, you are probably watching #bbcqt on mute while waiting for our BBC coverage to return. Â I guess there’s also STV. Â I wanted to point out also that my PhD Supervisor, Peter Lynch, will be providing some of the punditry on BBC Radio Scotland if you fancy a break from the TV stuff…
2319 More on that poll – it had a sample size of 865 and of those, only 54% actually gave a preference. Â So a smaller sample yes – and perhaps not too much to be drawn from it…
2303 I understand that there was a poll conducted for the Daily Mail 2 days ago. Â Apparently it puts the SNP’s constituency vote at a whopping 51% (almost double Labour’s share on 26%). Â I suspect that’s overstating it somewhat. Â Surely? Â I mean, if its right – this is a watershed moment in Scottish politics. Â And that’s understating it! Â I’d put the SNP’s constituency share at no more than 42-43% (if it gets that high – remember the highest they’ve ever polled previously is 33%!). Â Â So I guess its wait and see on this…
22:50 Good evening all. Â While Jeff and Kate get some kip, I’ll get the ball rolling on the early shift. Â I don’t know that there’s much to say at this point – I hope you’ve enjoyed the endless predictions (well, they’ve almost ended now!), the campaign coverage, the guest blogs and the general chat here during the election. Â We’ll try to get some chat going through the night as results come in – as well as giving you some ridiculous rumours from counts around the country.
Well, all that sounds rather grand eh? Â Actually, I hope this will just be good banter. Â So join us for as little or as long as you like, get some chat in the comments – thoughts on what’ll happen, rumours you are hearing, you know the score. Â And grab a cup of tea and some munchies… we’ll be here a while!
#1 by Lindsay on May 5, 2011 - 10:57 pm
As promised keeping you company for the early shift!
Munchies and whisky in hand (Jura – sorry Malc)
Rumour number 1 – Labour claiming voter intimidation apparently? Anyone know what that’s about?
#2 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:07 pm
I like Jura too! Its quite mild for an island malt. I’m starting with the tea though… suspect starting with alcohol wouldn’t be that wise!
Haven’t heard that rumour – any traction?
#3 by RedTorpedo on May 5, 2011 - 11:10 pm
Was that rumour not the spoof Labourscotland twitter account? And surely in anyone’s wildest dreams that Daily Mail poll from 3 May can’t be right?
#4 by Lindsay on May 5, 2011 - 11:18 pm
Ah – that would make a bit more sense! Picked it up from Alastair Ross so thought there might be something in it, though it did sound a bit wild!
#5 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 11:15 pm
Re: that poll: I believe the phrase is “what”
#6 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:16 pm
Just got a bit more info on it – sample of 865 and 46% didn’t give a preference. So ACTUAL sample is quite small. So yes – let’s not get too excited about it.
#7 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 11:26 pm
I wish I hadn’t heard about it – could be off to beddie byes by now.
#8 by Allan on May 5, 2011 - 11:16 pm
Jeez Malc, hope you’re well stocked up with tea and biccies. Especially if the dirst result is estimated at about 1am.
#9 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:21 pm
I’m a trooper. I live for this. (Famous last words – I’ll probably be asleep by 2!).
#10 by AliMiller on May 5, 2011 - 11:16 pm
Andrew Kerr on the BBC has heard that Charlie Gordon might be in trouble! 3 FPTP seats in Glasgow for the SNP? – would be quite something!
#11 by bill on May 5, 2011 - 11:19 pm
#4 aonghas. No. It’s “what the f***?!”.
[edit – this is a family show!]
#12 by aonghas on May 5, 2011 - 11:39 pm
Do you not know about the super secret reply button, eh? Mouse over thon taupe bit.
#13 by theshooglypeg on May 5, 2011 - 11:19 pm
Best of luck to you: I suspect I’ll be asleep in about half an hour, but I’ll try to wake up sometime during the night to see how you’re doing!
#14 by bill on May 5, 2011 - 11:30 pm
sorry about that mods. i’ll wash my mouth out. I’m on the Jura as well (the Superstition one). Medicinal for now.
#15 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:34 pm
Nae bother… enjoy the dram!
#16 by Lindsay on May 5, 2011 - 11:39 pm
Jura the drink of the evening it would appear! Not watching BBCQT Malc, I’ve ITV on, and they’ve just been discussing turn out.
What do we reckon?
It was dead at my polling station. Sounds like it had been like that for a lot of the day. We were comparatively dry as well.
So who would the wet affect the most? I’ve heard suggestions SNP, because it was wetter in the evening.
#17 by Allan on May 5, 2011 - 11:53 pm
Spoke to the folks at my polling station, they said it was dead up to about 3:30pm, was fairly steady after that. That was about 7pm though.
#18 by Malc on May 5, 2011 - 11:54 pm
In Stockbridge it was pretty steady all day… but Stockbridge is always busy!
#19 by Keith Roberts on May 6, 2011 - 12:02 am
Dalwhinnie down these parts, just to smooth the nerves of course
#20 by theshooglypeg on May 5, 2011 - 11:48 pm
My polling station was going like a fair and the boxes were almost full, but then I did go at prime popping-in-after-work time.
#21 by Una on May 5, 2011 - 11:49 pm
GAH could they not even give us one or two wee teaser results at a decent hour? not sure how long I can last
#22 by Allan on May 5, 2011 - 11:54 pm
Memory serves, at last years GE, it was dead up to about 2am, then the results started rolling in (I stayed up to about 5am as well)…
#23 by Lindsay on May 6, 2011 - 12:01 am
amazed to hear BBC on twitter suggesting it’s neck and neck SNP and Labour in Tranent. That would be a really significant shift for the Nats in East Lothian.
Still pretty sure Iain will hold on, EL Labour Party is fierce, but still…!
#24 by Lindsay on May 6, 2011 - 12:18 am
charlie gordon in trouble too?
#25 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 12:19 am
I think I said that earlier. I definitely heard it. If all these rumours are right… this is a shocker of a night for Labour!
#26 by Lindsay on May 6, 2011 - 12:30 am
does sound like it might be doesn’t it? Might get that sweepstake prize after all!
Going to have to tear myself away and hit the sack. Someone has to keep those civil servants in check, after all whatever happens tonight, how much will it really change….?! Maybe a discussion for another night!
Thanks for doing this, it’s been great fun, and I hope you all have a great night.
Linds x
#27 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 12:33 am
Cheers – enjoy the meeting tomorrow. I’m looking for Jeff or Kate to take over sometime soon!
#28 by bill on May 6, 2011 - 12:22 am
Wee DouglasA now turned his keen lasers on the Lib Dems. He must know the jig is up.
#29 by Martin Cunningham on May 6, 2011 - 12:24 am
Yeah – any time he gets asked a question he’s sticking the boot into the Lib Dems. It’s all he can do in the circumstances.
Such a shame 🙂
#30 by RedTorpedo on May 6, 2011 - 12:25 am
I still think there will be quirky results that are out of line with trends and I think there might be the odd big shock on the cards. 5 mins till Rutherglen! Then some real figures to crunch!
#31 by Nikkii on May 6, 2011 - 12:30 am
Hi from Milnathort – we are here with the BBC waiting to have our say – and the bar is open
#32 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 12:32 am
Is anyone else getting massive Glenrothes flashbacks from all these tales on the BBC of gloomy Labour activists at the counts?
#33 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 12:33 am
A little bit. We won’t have that long to wait though.
#34 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 12:33 am
I had EK staying red, looks like I was wrong.
#35 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 12:34 am
I had the same. We don’t know yet. I think he’ll hang on, though Linda’s betting came in considerably over the last few weeks.
#36 by Jamie on May 6, 2011 - 12:38 am
Gah, have an exam at 9:30 and an entire textbook to memorise before then. Don’t study politics so can’t even pretend this is revision. Still, gotta have your priorities right eh.
I’d like to stay awake for Ochil and Kelvin anyway, any idea what time they’re expected?
#37 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 12:42 am
Ochil is now Clacks & Dunblane – and their count isn’t until tomorrow morning I don’t think. Kelvin should be in around 4ish though…
#38 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 12:49 am
Glasgow count is geared for a Kelvin recount, allegedly.
#39 by bill on May 6, 2011 - 12:53 am
Dave Berry upbeat in E Lothian https://twitter.com/#!/elcourier
#40 by Jack Finn on May 6, 2011 - 12:56 am
Huge surge for SNP although they didn’t take it,happy!
#41 by Allan on May 6, 2011 - 12:57 am
7.4% swing to the SNP in Rutherglen…
I said this before but could this be “Scottish Labour’s” own 1983.
#42 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 1:14 am
It could, but for entirely different reasons. UK Labour 1983 was due to over ambition. 2011 is due to a lack of ambition.
#43 by Jack Finn on May 6, 2011 - 1:01 am
Off topic but the Lady on the BBC2 Scotland coverage just said there was an extreme socialist aspect in the Scottish Labour party,where exactly is that?..
#44 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:03 am
Quite… quite.
#45 by Martin on May 6, 2011 - 1:01 am
Looks like all the Labour bods inthe studio have been given their instructions….
“OK – it’s bad for us, but try and deflect it by trashing the Lib-Dems”
#46 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:04 am
Again – quite.
#47 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 1:05 am
I’m calling it now, SNP OVERALL majority.
#48 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:09 am
Is it too early for me to break out a “behave”? If not… “BEHAVE!”. One result – one! And they didn’t even win it! Let’s not put the cart before the horse.
Of course you may be right. But an overall majority is nearly impossible!
Pingback: Late night Scottish Parliamentary blogburst… « Slugger O'Toole
#49 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 1:10 am
Apparently Linda Fabiani celebrating with her supporters.
#50 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 1:11 am
OMG, can it really be true? Andy Kerr out on his erse? Please, please be true.
#51 by Una on May 6, 2011 - 1:13 am
sources tell me good news for Linda Fabiani… ya dancer!!!!
#52 by Allan on May 6, 2011 - 1:13 am
You’ve not got some sort of swing-ometer there? Looks like the rumoured loss of East Kilbride falls within the 7.5% swing achieved in Rutherglen.
|Where’s Bob McKenzie when you need him?
#53 by Allan on May 6, 2011 - 1:17 am
Swing of 6.6%.
I think the SNP are going to win…
#54 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:18 am
You think?!
#55 by Allan on May 6, 2011 - 1:29 am
I think that the SNP will be the largest party & will challenge the 56 seats Labour won in 1999 (whether they supass that record will depend on how the list seats fall). Both of the swings (in the results announced so far) are showing swings of over 6% to the SNP.
Interestingly Anne Begg has just made the point I made in my own blog, that Labour tend to focus on the FPTP seats to the detriment of the list seats – with the result that their list vote lags behind the vote for constituancy seats. I wonder how this will play with the makeup of the Labour party in parliament.
#56 by Allan on May 6, 2011 - 1:36 am
11% swing to the SNP in Hamilton & Larkhall.
Astonishing!
#57 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 1:16 am
Yessssssssss!!!!!!!!
#58 by Jack Finn on May 6, 2011 - 1:17 am
My friend, an SNP councilor was telling me Kerr had lost about 10 minutes ago.MASSIVE!that’s their 12th target seat,huge victory!However an overall majority seems…extremely unlikely
#59 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 1:17 am
well you didn’t see that coming- nor did I. Oh dear oh dear oh dear
#60 by cynicalHighlander on May 6, 2011 - 1:19 am
Andy Kerr is out.. woopee
#61 by bill on May 6, 2011 - 1:24 am
East Lothian declaration around 2am…
#62 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 1:25 am
Is it just me or does Nicola Sturgeon look glum?
#63 by Aldos Rendos on May 6, 2011 - 1:33 am
Thats what I thought, although she could well just be cream crackered!
#64 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 1:28 am
You’ve got to think that that’s it for Jackie Baillie too and Iain Gray at 2am? That’s going to be a real close one….
#65 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 1:36 am
McKelvie’s victory is truly stunning. East Kilbride was always going to be close but this one is remarkable.
#66 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:37 am
That’s an insane result. Crazy…
#67 by Jack Finn on May 6, 2011 - 1:37 am
WOW!That is certainly a result…overall majority after all?still unlikely right enough
#68 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 1:40 am
No not now….
#69 by RedTorpedo on May 6, 2011 - 1:38 am
Any news of Alex Neil?
#70 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:40 am
I think if those seats are going, he should get it. But then – in 2007, the SNP took Stirling on a massive swing and didn’t take Cumbernauld & Kilsyth… so early days.
#71 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 1:41 am
Larkhall? LARKHALL is now voting SNP? Christ on a speedboat, this is some crazy shiznit.
#72 by Cruachan on May 6, 2011 - 1:42 am
Rev. S.C. – I actually thought Nicola Sturgeon looked pretty relaxed (apart from all the thinking about 4 more years of ministerial challenges ahead – what a nice problem to have 🙂
#73 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 1:44 am
Lord Foulkes whining about campaign money and newspaper support going to the SNP – well now you know how everyone else in Scotland has felt about Labour for the last 50 years…
#74 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 1:50 am
Thing is, this isn’t a collapse in the labour vote. We’re up. This is a failure to pick up any Lib Dems at all.
OTOH, great opportunity to fix the Labour party in Scotland.
#75 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 1:52 am
“Thing is, this isn’t a collapse in the labour vote. We’re up”
Not in Hamilton & Larkhall you weren’t.
Thing is, it can’t possibly be as simple as every Lib Dem voter turning to the SNP. SOME of them must have gone to Labour, which means you must have lost some too.
#76 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 1:54 am
Aidan the SNP took swing from everyone in Hamilton. And yep, think you are right. Labour needs to do now what it didn’t do in 2007.
#77 by Jamie on May 6, 2011 - 2:00 am
The UK Labour party was supposedly going to find itself again after last year’s Westminster defeat and yet I don’t see anything different.
Following the Tories further and further to the right might (almost) work down south. But here people have a (debatably) centre-leftish alternative.
#78 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 1:56 am
Labour are down 2% so far, so no, they’re not up. Tories are down 3% and Liberals 10%.
#79 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 2:20 am
We were up at the time. We’ll see how it works out overall. 🙂
#80 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 1:51 am
Yes but who’s going to be left to fix it?
#81 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 1:56 am
The party membership. Labour is full of good people. It’s time to take our party back.
#82 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 2:03 am
I hope you’re right, I honestly do, because we need a good (but constructive) opposition. But as long as Labour in Scotland is just a parish branch, all the talent will gravitate to Westminster.
#83 by John Mc on May 6, 2011 - 2:04 am
While I generally consider myself to be an SNP supporter but with strong Green sympathies, it seems plainly obvious to me that Labour must present themselves as the aspirational party for Scotland – not simply the anti-Tory or anti-SNP party, but the pro-society party. That kind of opposition was missing over the past four years and I can only hope that Scotland will get the opposition we deserve when Labour and the other opposition parties regroup after this election.
#84 by Jack Finn on May 6, 2011 - 1:53 am
Sturgeon is dropping some truths on BBC2,she’s got me worrying about Independence being a feasible option!!
#85 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 1:54 am
Very interesting point from Hosie just then – 2000 notional majority for Gray, but 6000 Lib Dem voters to fight for…
#86 by Cruachan on May 6, 2011 - 2:00 am
Tom McCabe there just suggesting that a review of the Labour Party structure may be needed to recognise that “elections for Westminster and for Holyrood are different”.
#87 by Cruachan on May 6, 2011 - 2:00 am
Iain Gray there suggesting his vote has gone up.
#88 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 2:02 am
*self-censoring* suffice to say I’d rather chew off my own limbs……
#89 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 2:03 am
Clydesdale todeclare in a few minutes. Come on Aileen!
#90 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 2:08 am
Yep, fingers crossed there, that’d be a great win for the SNP.
#91 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 2:11 am
Yesss!!! Aileen!!!!
#92 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 2:13 am
We did have this pegged as an SNP gain… but a majority of 4,000?! This is a mental night.
#93 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 2:17 am
Definitely. This is SNP majority territory, whether largely through FPTP or not…..
#94 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 2:17 am
Also – terrific news from Clydesdale for the Lib Dems. They’ve managed not to lose their deposit in Clydesdale. I suppose it helps that they didn’t have a candidate there…
#95 by An Duine Gruamach on May 6, 2011 - 2:13 am
Ya dancer.
#96 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 2:13 am
This is incredible. And three women out of three so far, too.
#97 by Keith Roberts on May 6, 2011 - 2:17 am
For some of us Clydesdale was not a surprise, though the extent of the swing exceeded expectations. The interesting bit will be in the list allocations – can we get Joan McAlpine in as well.
But rightly the thought is turning to what is going to be left wearing the red rosette, and who is going to wear the captain’s armband. Surely not Master Baker. have they sunk that low?
#98 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 2:18 am
John Park is an option (assuming he gets back in – but he should survive the cull!).
#99 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 2:21 am
James Kelly for Labour leader, since it seems he’ll be their only msp 😉
#100 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 2:30 am
How about Ken McIntosh? He might get through as he up against the Tories rather than the SNP
#101 by RedTorpedo on May 6, 2011 - 2:30 am
Without getting carried away I have spent my whole adult life dreaming of nights like this 🙂
Now pass me a kleenex
#102 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 2:39 am
Don’t take this the wrong way, but I very much hope you are crying Sir…..
(this blog has been laminated just incase)
#103 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 2:42 am
Haha, I thought the exact same thing…. >.<
#104 by RedTorpedo on May 6, 2011 - 2:46 am
Buckets!
#105 by Keith Roberts on May 6, 2011 - 2:34 am
Ken could be Hobson’s choice, but watch out for tactical voting in Eastwood. It was never an SNP target and much of their vote could have gone to the blue tories to reduce the presence of the red ones. Expected declaration time?
#106 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 2:37 am
Looks like Iain Gray is smiling. Disappointing 🙁
#107 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 2:48 am
If they’re examining the spoiled papers with a fine tooth comb it’s not over yet…
#108 by Keith Roberts on May 6, 2011 - 2:46 am
Eastwood minutes away, but Murphy saying Labour hold despite the boundary changes
#109 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 2:50 am
Yes, I don’t see the SNP managing to get in the mix in Eastwood. I still have the Tories down to take it but tactical voting might help Labour out.
Yep, Eastwood has gone Labour!
#110 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 2:54 am
Damn. Labour hold Uddingston and gain Eastwood. Two bad results for the SNP, but pro SNP swings in both.
#111 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 2:59 am
Bad results? The idea that the SNP were ever going to take them in the first place was unthinkable! 😛
#112 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:05 am
Colin the bad result for the SNP is that Labour won Eastwood over the Tories, that’s a blow.
Airdrie and shotts declares. Alex Neil SNP gain.
#113 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 3:14 am
Fair point, but I think it would have been accounted for on the list anyway. Either way, I am a very happy bunny. At this rate I’m hoping for a Green-SNP majority and coalition (and I hope Salmond changes his mind about coalitions).
#114 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:06 am
Nicola takes Southside!!!
#115 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 3:12 am
AVERAGE swing so far about 9% Lab to SNP. That’s an absolutely stunning figure.
#116 by RedTorpedo on May 6, 2011 - 3:21 am
Shettleston – STUNNING!
#117 by Cruachan on May 6, 2011 - 3:22 am
Off to bed now with the words of Iain MacWhirter ringing in my ears…..
“An Epic Change is happening in Scotland”….”Scotland has lost its fear of Independence”
#118 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:22 am
SNP slash Labour majority in Greenock, Libs hold deposit.
#119 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:24 am
David McLethie says he’s lost Pentlands. Not sure if it’s gone to Labour or the SNP.
#120 by Dan on May 6, 2011 - 3:38 am
SNP mate, the word is the whole of the capital has gone Scottish National yellow
#121 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 3:40 am
yep just blogged it! Iain Gray appears to concede it!
#122 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 3:45 am
That would be crazy.
#123 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:42 am
Coatbridge is peculiar. They recounted there but with the result declared you need to question the need for one.
#124 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 3:47 am
Another good thing about the snp doing well in Edinburgh is Kezia Dugdale will be in on the list, one of the few labour candidates I like.
Shettleston! Stunning! Wow!
#125 by Jamie on May 6, 2011 - 3:48 am
How will all these SNP wins in glasgow affect the d’Hont? Is Patrick Harvie going to be okay?
#126 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 3:50 am
We’re working on it!
#127 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 3:53 am
Okay, I make it if the SNP take 5 constituencies and the Greens take over 10,000 list votes, they should be okay… but my numbers are guesses. Jeff?
#128 by Jamie on May 6, 2011 - 3:53 am
heh, good stuff. Don’t mean to sound impatient/rude. my brain’s just fried from this bizarre mixture of red bull, operating system concepts, and glasgow turning yellow!
#129 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 3:53 am
Is a good question though!
#130 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 3:51 am
Jeff – we need you! Do the maths!!
#131 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 4:01 am
Sorry, computer froze for 15 minutes. I would say there is no chance of the Greens missing out on a list vote. They are more likely to get 2 MSPs than get 0.
Even on a miserly 5% national voteshare, Patrick would be the 3rd regional MSP elected. I suspect they’ll be closer to 8% with this LD collapse.
#132 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 4:04 am
I’m SO pleased for John Mason.
#133 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 4:06 am
Only one more Central seat to declare, Motherwell coming up soon, so we’ll see the list soon. The shock SNP gains mean I’ve generally no idea where the Central list votes are going. My guess is 3 Lab, 3 SNP and a Tory.
#134 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 4:15 am
I have 4 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Tory, 1 Grn.
#135 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 4:23 am
Dave Whitton is out. If Labour do well on the list tonight they’re going to have to seriously review their one or the other policy, it’s costing them big names.
#136 by thenippysweetie on May 6, 2011 - 4:23 am
Got up 40 mins ago to watch the results filter in. Unbelievable; more than a few Portillo moments. Hoping Glasgow Kelvin goes SNP too.
#137 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 4:25 am
Looks likely…
#138 by thenippysweetie on May 6, 2011 - 4:34 am
Yip, McNeill out. Woeful turnout though. Gone are the days where you can take a donkey, pin a Labour rosette on it and get it elected in the West of Scotland. Electorally though, this has to mean that the Nats are not far off the 65 majority if this trend keeps up and the List goes their way too?
#139 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 4:35 am
Labour have barely held a single seat with a four-figure majority. Sad to come so close in Motherwell&Wishaw and others and not quite make it, but it should help us get some list seats so no big deal.
#140 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 4:37 am
SNP take Ed.West. Dreamland!
#141 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 4:46 am
Snp win Lilithgow by a mile.
#142 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 4:46 am
You can replace “Linlithgow” with around 17 or 18 seats…. this is an outrageous result.
#143 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 4:56 am
Now Paisley falls this is ridiculous.
#144 by Martin on May 6, 2011 - 4:57 am
What’s with the NF candidates in West Lothian?
#145 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 5:00 am
Time for bed, but I never expected this in my wildest dreams!
I am very happy that Edinburgh Western fell, which was what I was hoping for right at the dissolution of parliament.
#146 by Martin on May 6, 2011 - 5:04 am
I don’t believe it. For the first time in my voting life, my vote has elected a constituency MP – Jim Eadie (Edinburgh South) Due to boundary changes, this has switched from Labour/Lib-dem for the past 20 years.
#147 by Jeff on May 6, 2011 - 5:05 am
Good stuff. That is an amazing result.
i still think it’ll be Marco Biagi that is poster boy for the SNP…. 😉
#148 by Martin on May 6, 2011 - 5:06 am
Edinburgh South? Is that the biggest turn out so far?
#149 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 5:08 am
Radio Scotland thinks the Greens are struggling, but the SNP doing well on the list.
#150 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 5:09 am
SNP take Renfrewshire North West
#151 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 5:09 am
I did predict that one!
#152 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 5:12 am
This isn’t a victory, it’s a slaughter. Blimey.
#153 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 5:22 am
It is almost unbelievable!
#154 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 5:35 am
SNP 5 – Labour 4 in Glasgow. If anyone had suggested that on here even twelve hours ago you’d have been called insane. Unbelievable.
Ch
#155 by The Burd on May 6, 2011 - 5:45 am
Isn’t it!
#156 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 5:48 am
“think Labour leadership between Jackie Baillie and Ken Macintosh – two who triumphed against all the odds. Both managed to make their votes go up. ”
Did I miss Baillie’s result?
#157 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 5:53 am
Must have – she is back. I don’t understand why everyone is talking her up though – she’d be worse for Labour than Iain Gray, even more combative and angry. Its not what they need…
#158 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 6:09 am
Ah, she’s Dumbarton. You all called that one wrong 😀
#159 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 5:56 am
Oh wow a 6 vote majority
#160 by theshooglypeg on May 6, 2011 - 6:12 am
Morning all! Blimey, I go to sleep for a few hours and the map starts turning yellow: what a crazy night!
#161 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 6:40 am
Its utterly incredible. Amazing… phenomenal. Crazy. Lots of words like that.
#162 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 6:38 am
I’m finding it increasingly hard to see the SNP *not* getting an overall majority on their own now…
#163 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 6:39 am
Yeah – I make it 65 or 66… depending on how strong the second vote showing is.
#164 by aonghas on May 6, 2011 - 6:49 am
Mornin. Wow.
So Labour is gonna be mostly a bunch of list noobs? Should be interesting.
It was funny to read your twitter stream Malc – a man reeling. 🙂
#165 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 6:56 am
I’m an academic. I’m looking at this from an academic perspective. And I’m lost for words.
#166 by Keith Roberts on May 6, 2011 - 6:50 am
Sadly it looks as though a cyber attack may have put Newsnet off the air – just when the party was getting going.
Any projections on the South list allocations?
#167 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 6:58 am
We don’t have all the constituencies in yet. But I suspect the SNP will take 1 of the constituencies (Christine Grahame) and probably 2 list seats (at least).
#168 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 7:12 am
Had an hour and a half’s sleep so “fresh eyes” and a quick sum up from one not particularly representative of the wider membership Labour Party member (or am I?)
Glad John Park had the balls to stray from the “the Lib-Dem vote collapsed” party line- I didn’t see it as I was busy watching Margaret Curran on BBC trying to defend our shocking “results”.
No way Iain Gray can stay on as leader but we’re sadly lacking in obvious replacements. (I would’ve tipped Andy Kerr- until about 1.35am this morning)
Proff was in the polls that “you’re going to get stabbed” (Thanks James) is not a good line to build a campaign around but then members have been saying that for years. Maybe someone will listen now?
I’ll be very interested to see the Fife results- curious to see how the LD vote has held up in NE Fife.
Cracking night for the SNP, interesting times.
Great blog, nice work
#169 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 7:18 am
Thanks Zoe. I think I agree with most of that. I’m keen to see the Fife results too. Lib Dems have collapsed everywhere. Who are you replacing Iain Gray with? JP looks a decent bet at the moment… or maybe… well, actually… erm… he’d be my only pick! Hugh Henry? Sarah Boyack?
#170 by Aidan Skinner on May 6, 2011 - 11:16 am
I think you’re quite representative of the membership, at least the ones I’ve met. This is horrific for us, but probably what we deserve. :/
#171 by Shuna on May 6, 2011 - 7:23 am
wishing I had stayed in bed! This is an amazing result for the SNP; one for the Scottish Labour Party to take stock from big time – something has to change (esp as results in council elections in England telling a different story); the LDs have melted……
My teeth are gritted as I say this but…..well done Eck & Co.
#172 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 7:23 am
It’s going to be JP or some nicely groomed newbie. I’ll be honest- given the options it doesn’t bear thinking about.
There have been some very scary names touted for the leadership.
#173 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 7:29 am
Agreed. Stay away from Richard Baker…
#174 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 7:30 am
Saying nothing! *chews off own limbs*
#175 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 7:38 am
Mouth running away with me now- and so publicly too!
Dunfermline result could affect leadership contest
(sadly)
*gets wrestled to the ground by party staff and has membership card torn out of her hands*
#176 by Danny95 on May 6, 2011 - 7:43 am
Wake up from a 40 minute power nap and still absolutely gobsmacked at what we’ve seen here.
Anniesland might be the most remarkable gain of all, although we’ve all been talking for months about how Edinburgh Central is a key LabLib marginal, and the SNP go and pinch it! Mint’
What!!! A!!! Night!!!
#177 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 7:50 am
I think you can pick about 12 seats and make a case that “this is the most remarkable gain”. Some of them are crazy stuff! Amazing result.
#178 by thenippysweetie on May 6, 2011 - 7:45 am
Incredibly, Ed Miliband is not acknowledging the performance of Scottish Labour in these elections!!
#179 by Doug Daniel on May 6, 2011 - 7:47 am
I’ve been up since 3:45am watching the results. It was a nasty surprise to see Iain Gray winning his seat when I switched the TV on, but that disappointment was VERY quickly quashed!
I’m absolutely buzzing, and it’s only partly because I’m halfway through my second can of Red Bull.
#180 by Shuna on May 6, 2011 - 7:53 am
actually he has – BBC has him as ‘disappointed’
#181 by bill on May 6, 2011 - 8:13 am
morning all, anyone still at the Jura? 🙂
Quite astounding set of results to wake up to!
#182 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 8:36 am
I swear to God I’ve got tears on my cheeks.
http://wosblog.podgamer.com/2011/05/06/when-the-clock-strikes-one/
Pingback: Managerialist Labour given a lesson in modern politics at Scottish polls.. « Slugger O'Toole
#183 by A Brown on May 6, 2011 - 9:09 am
Complete Meltdown in the LD vote except in Tweedale and a strong Tory result in E, R & B.
#184 by Rev. S. Campbell on May 6, 2011 - 10:30 am
How about five?
😀
#185 by Zoe Smith on May 6, 2011 - 11:50 am
Just woken up (again) Andrew Kerr BBC is also reporting LDs likely to lose NE Fife to SNP
#186 by Tormod on May 6, 2011 - 12:08 pm
Any word on Dunfermline?
#187 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:26 pm
The whole of MS&F is looking like it might be yellow. Recount in Kirkcaldy I hear might be the only blip.
#188 by Colin on May 6, 2011 - 12:19 pm
I’m still absolutely gobsmacked.
Everyone instantly dismissed that Daily Mail poll of the SNP with 53% of the vote. It seems that this is much closer to the truth than the last YouGov one. Crazy!
#189 by Malc on May 6, 2011 - 1:26 pm
Even with its small sample size, this appears to be the case.
#190 by oldchap on May 6, 2011 - 1:42 pm
Thankfully the BBC Parliament channel showed the Scottish coverage in England so I didn’t miss much. An amazing result for the SNP, and good to see people in long standing safe seats going for it and making a change.
Sorry to see the greens didn’t do so well, and a few good names lost from other parties. Excited to see what the SNP do with a majority as now looks quite likely!