Time for someone on this here blogspace to offer condolence and encouragement to the Scottish Lib Dems. Enough of kicking a party when it’s down and at least, it has taken the first tiny steps on the long road back.
There are clearly benefits to be gained from moving quickly from one leader to another. No power vacuum, no unseemly public scuffles, no washing of dirty linen in public. But there are also downsides. An anointment, which the last two leadership “elections” have been, means there is no breathing space in which ordinary party members will get the chance to have their say and shape their future. The chosen one gets to consult and listen, or simply impose his or her will and view on the party. Reality demands it be the former – there are few candidates to choose from after all.
Willie Rennie has today been declared the new Lib Dem leader. He was, if truth be told, the only credible – or at least most credible – candidate in the tiny group of Lib Dem MSPs. His experience as party CEO and also as Chief of Staff for the Parliamentary Group, and his time as an MP, give him a hinterland that should serve him well. By all accounts, he is affable, media savvy, intelligent and should do well. I can’t help thinking, though, that the Liberal Democrats have a bit of a conveyor belt on this style of politician, not just here in Scotland but across the UK. It’s the 40 something male thing, of higher than average income background, creating an identikit of leaders in recent years. No wonder Vince Cable comes across as a breath of fresh air.
But what kind of liberalism does Willie Rennie believe in? Is he Orange Book or more socially democratic? Does he belong to the seemingly more Scottish tradition of liberalism as portrayed by the likes of Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell or the more strident economically-focused one epitomised by Huhne, Laws and co?
It matters because it will determine how long the road back is for the Liberal Democrats here in Scotland. They have some time to take a long hard look at themselves and work it out: the next Parliamentary elections are some years away after all. But there is the small matter of council elections next year: these could represent the start of a revival or perhaps achieving stability by holding their own rather than making gains, or result in further electoral punishment. If the Lib Dems lose their well established toehold in local government across the country one really does have to fear for their future.
There is space for a vibrant political force representing either half of the Liberal Democrat tradition, but it would be a brave man who would lead his party towards the Orange book style of policy and politics in Scotland. This would appear to be what the Scottish people rejected so emphatically on 5 May. There is a need for a right of centre, less interventionist economically-focused political party, yet, there is also a need for a party that makes thoughtful social policy its core purpose too. Both the SNP and Labour have swept up tenets of both, crowding the centre in recent years. So a nimble Liberal Democrat party could straddle them if it can get the policies, the strategy and the tactics right.
Willie Rennie needs to make his mark and somehow achieve coverage - no mean feat when reduced to a parliamentary group of five. One way of doing this would be to pick up on bits of the SNP manifesto that chime with sections of the Liberal Democrat one. Take forward members’ bills where appropriate; shame them on reducing the priority of other measures when needed. But make it constructive opposition. Underlying the seismic Scottish election result was a sentiment of dislike for the yah-boo politics that everyone – including the SNP – indulged in in the last four years. The people have spoken, they want this SNP government to have a fair run at it, and it is incumbent on all parties to follow the will of the Scottish people, while still managing to hold the government to account.
It’s a tough job, without the much larger task of reinventing and rejuvenating a severely wounded party. The burd wishes Willie Rennie well and will watch with interest to see if he is up to it.
#1 by cynicalHighlander on May 17, 2011 - 8:03 pm
Let me get this straight Tavish stood down blaming the coalition and now the new leader is endorsing Clegg if I heard right on the airwaves, sigh.
#2 by douglasmclellan on May 17, 2011 - 8:28 pm
Er. Yes?
I still agree with Nick.
But, it is important to acknowledge that on fees in particular, the entire Westminster party totally made a mess of things. It has caused a big trust issue. Trust was a big problem on the doorstep, Willie Rennie acknowledged this and will seek to regain trust.
Now, I think if he doesn’t create a distinctive Scottish voice for the Lib Dems where we agree on many things that the coalition is doing and also clearly disagree with other things then he will be a failure and the Scottish Lib Dems will be in trouble.
But given he has been in the job for less than 24hrs I think I can wait for a more nuanced message to emerge.
#3 by The Burd on May 17, 2011 - 8:42 pm
I’m glad to hear it – he needs time and support and healthy debate. Big job but sure he’s up to it!
#4 by cynicalHighlander on May 18, 2011 - 12:09 am
From what I have heard on his Newsnight debut he has sealed your fate.
“1. firmly in support of Nick Clegg and the Coalition
2. against LD theoretical policy on Scotland and in favour of the deal with the other Unionist parties.”
Which means he is against Scotland getting Crown Estates revenue unwilling to have Calman strengthened, same old Westminster knows best. Sorry this is what your party does not need if it wants to survive in the mainstream.
#5 by douglasmclellan on May 18, 2011 - 12:50 am
I would have been surprised if the first thing he had done is damn Nick Clegg to all seven levels of hell. And we do support many of the policies of the Coalition. As I said, trust is an issue though.
Yeah, I am wondering about all this. Certainly I think we have to be in favour of getting the Crown Estates if we are to truly support the development of an offshore renewables industry. As for Calman vs Steel I am not clear where our party policy is exactly on these issues but I would think that we should at least say lets look at what is being proposed/asked for rather than outright rejection straightaway. There is a balance to be struck between siding with the SNP (thus whats the point of being SLDs) and constant unhelpful opposition (thus a much harder electoral sell) but we dont have the tone right yet.
But give it a few weeks. If we are on the wrong path then it will become obvious early on and we can change.
#6 by douglasmclellan on May 17, 2011 - 8:06 pm
I think that the 2012 council elections are going to be hard because, like whats happened at Westminster, I think we are going to get a kicking in those councils where we have some power despite them being coalitions. Places like Edinburgh, Fife and Aberdeen will see Lib Dem falls but the SNP maintaining or improving on their position. Which is a tad unfair.
The 2015 Scottish elections will really tell us how the 2016 elections are going to go. If we lose MPs (say Crockart in West Edinburgh) in places that we lost MSPs (Smith) in 2011 then we will have gone nowhere and in 2016 we will do well to maintain the number of MPs that we have.
I was interested is your belief in the publics dislike of yah-boo politics. Alex Salmond is the best at that. Iain Gray never performed well at FMQs with his angry man tone but even considered questions from Tavish or Annabel were often ridiculed rather than answered. That will not change. And when Ministers make misters (like Sturgeon did) he will defend them nosily and condescendingly but when Ministers apologies (like Sturgeon did) he will be silent on his own comments.
The will of the Scottish people was to give a majority to the SNP. And that is what they got. Yes, opposition for oppositions sake is pointless but every SNP decision has to be examined and where necessary questioned.
#7 by Keith Legg on May 17, 2011 - 9:04 pm
Firstly, a minor correction – this is the first Scottish Party leadership election which has been a “coronation”, as all the rest were contested.
For what it’s worth, I think Willie is more on the “Scottish” side of the liberalism rather than the “English”. Take your point about the 40-something male politician though – we do have a problem in terms of the sexual and racial make-up of our party at a parliamentary level.
I think your point about constructive opposition is a good one. I know that as Dunfermline MP, Willie was well-liked and respected by politicians of all parties and was more than happy and able to work with them when required, and I’m sure he’ll try to carry that on at a Scottish level.
#8 by Malc on May 17, 2011 - 10:09 pm
Erm… I think there’s a minor correction to your minor correction Keith:
“Firstly, a minor correction – this is the first Scottish Party leadership election which has been a “coronationâ€, as all the rest were contested.”
Wendy Alexander wasn’t in a contested election when she won the Labour leadership. But maybe you just mean Scottish Lib Dem leadership election? (I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt!).
#9 by douglasmclellan on May 17, 2011 - 10:49 pm
Ah. Now. Confusion reigns. I thought Kate was referring just to the Scot Lib Dems.
Recent Leadership Elections of all parties:
Scot Lib Dems: Willie Rennie Unopposed, Tavish Scott beat Mike Rumbles in July 2008 and Nicol Stephen beat Mike Rumbles in June 2005
Scot Labour: Iain Grey beat Andy Kerr & Cathie Jamieson in Sept 2008 and Wendy Alexander was elected unopposed in Sept 2007
Scot Tories: Annabel Goldie was unopposed in Dec 2005
Scot Greens: Harvie & Elanor were elected in Nov 08 – dont know if they were opposed
SNP – Alex Salmond beat Roseanna Cunningham in Sept 2004.
So, Willie Rennie is the most recent party leader chosen and was unopposed. Then the Green leadership (contest unknown), then Iain Gray (contested), then we have Wendy Alexander (uncontested), then Annabel Goldie (unopposed), then Nicol Stephen, then Alex Salmond.
So Willie Rennie is the only Lib Dem “appointment” which followed the election of Iain Gray for Scot Labour. So either Kate was forgot about Iain Grays election or forgot that Tavish Scott beat Mike Rumbles because she wrote that “An anointment, which the last two leadership “elections†have been” is not correct. As far as I can tell. Unless it was a reference to the Greens. In which case I will shut up.
I may be totally wrong here and wait to see if I am corrected.
#10 by The Burd on May 17, 2011 - 10:56 pm
No I’ve got it wrong – mea culpa – had forgotten that Mike Rumbles stood against Tavish as well.
#11 by Douglas McLellan on May 17, 2011 - 11:05 pm
I got it wrong as well. Ross Finnie was the third candidate in the election that saw Tavish Scott elected.
#12 by Aidan Skinner on May 17, 2011 - 9:24 pm
I’m not entirely convinced electing a government promising a regressive tax freeze and demanding tax cuts for big companies (small ones pay less tax) paid for, presumably, by even deeper cuts to public services is necessarily a repudiation of Orange Book flavour neo-liberalism.
The Lib Demsmay have more of a short term image problem than it seems, especially in their traditonal home
#13 by Am Firinn on May 17, 2011 - 10:48 pm
Comments about “standing up to the SNP bulldozer” do not suggest that Mr Rennie is in learning mode. Really we should stop giving him the oxygen of publicity. He has fewer MSPs than the Greens or the SSP had in 2003 – 07 and we should really treat him as the political irrelevance he is, until such time as the Liberal Democrats are ready to play a more constructive role than in all the years of greetin-faced Tavish Scottery. While some of their bloggers do show signs of rational thought, I’m not sure there’s much sign of it among their parliamentarians. And don’t get me started on Michael Moore…
#14 by Ezio on May 18, 2011 - 12:01 am
So the attack line is going to be based on the ‘SNP bulldozer’?
Maybe loses its impact a wee bit considering he’s came up with the line before the First Minister has even been elected.
#15 by douglasmclellan on May 18, 2011 - 12:14 am
I am not sure why this bulldozer line has cropped up so soon.
Certainly it is something that has the potential to work if the SNP govern as a traditional party with a majority with control over the Committees and in the Chamber. Certainly the SNP don’t need to take account of the other parties ideas for legislation and policy but if it doesnt manage its superior position properly then “bulldozer” may become a more apt approach.
At the moment I am not too sure.
#16 by Doug Daniel on May 18, 2011 - 12:29 pm
Yep, Especially when Salmond and the SNP have been talking about carrying on in the style of minority government, except with a majority. Mr Rennie might want to wait and see if the SNP live up to this before accusing them of “bulldozing” their way through the parliament. That sort of talk does not bode well for hopes that the Lib Dems will be constructive opponents – he seems to be setting his stall out for saying no to everything the SNP want, just for the sake of it.
Then again, his only parliamentary experience is with the outdated Westminster system, which is set out specifically to encourage opposition for opposition’s sake. Maybe he’ll pick things up quickly.
#17 by JPJ2 on May 18, 2011 - 12:29 am
While it is only too possible to foresee the Labour Party continung to perform fairly well in a Westminster election (because they might form a goverment more acceptable to Scots), it is difficult to see how that will help the LibDems.
It may be unkind to say so, but I see only the defeat of a number of their MPs for Wesdminster in 2015 (incumbency will allow some to hang on) followed by no progress (at best) in 2016 for Holyrood.
They are now both a third unionist party (and Rennie is off to a very poor start blethering about how good the Scotland bill is) and a coalition partner for the Tories.
That is a perfect recipe for oblivion in Scotland.
#18 by Brian Nicholson on May 18, 2011 - 1:11 am
Parrotting the Westminster party line and suggesting that the coalition membership is a good thing despite its massive rejection by the people of Scotland just confirms that the Lib Dems live in their own world.
It also appears that Lib Dem supporters on this site share those views.
What will it take to convince Lib Dem leadership that they are on the journey to oblivion. The Holyrood group is in tatters, the local councillors are wetting the bed over their prospects but the Westminster crowd continue to spout utter nonsense about holding the Conseratives in line.
The sands of the Lib Dem glass are running out and no seems to notice, least of all the Libe Dems themselves.
#19 by Gavin Hamilton on May 18, 2011 - 1:44 am
First, I think the LibDem future in Scotland depends very much on the pereception by the electorate of the LibDems at Westminster and of the SNP at Holyrood.
Second, i think the LibDems need to work hard at developing their thinking and ideas to take Scotland forward.
Third, they need to then establish a simple and clear positioning and narrative in Scotland.
ie Do better than that silly save the police campaign or the PE for primary age children from the election before.
Remember, they have only just become small at Holyrood. Which is only one level of government in Scotland. They remain a significant Scottish player at Westminster and they are in Government and have the ability over the next few years to get some things done.
In certain respects they may even have more power than the SNP.
I don’t think the Orange book v social liberal traditions need be so starkly different but they are a convenient label for commentators.
I believe LibDems understand the needs to have a have both a successful business environment to empower Scotland to prosper. And also in having first class public services and social policies to solve many of the issues and inequalities our society faces.
They have always been good on this.
They are Internationalist in outlook and believe in reform and looking forward. They are modern and aspirational and open minded. They have a great recent heritage on fighting causes like against the Iraq war or justice for the Gurkhas.
Being green is part of their DNA and has been since way before it was fashionable – they have a passionate interest in developing renewables and alternative forms of energy for the future.
They are also great believers in community politics, of decentralisation and localism – and I think empowering micro groups out in society doing things. The big, blunt statist solution is not for them.
They have a passion for federalism, which is probably something that comes to meet some of the SNP’s thinking on what independence may in practice mean. There may be scope for a number of groupings to do business here to form a Scottish consensus on what should happen.
They want Scotland to grow and to prosper – both as a society and as an economy.
There is a lot of deep thinking and philosophical roots that has gone into this over many years. It may be that some of this overlaps with what some others are offering but the LibDems must think through what they believe themselves and what their own analysis of Scotland’s issues are and what their solutions may be.
Clearly, it seems to me, they lost in Scotland because coalition with Conservatives is toxic, and they were perceived to have backed down on their core promises in particular tuition fees in English thereby losing credibility. This, at SP11 made them irrelevant and they lost big.
Of course they need to stick with the coalition. But whats done is done, now they need to focus on delivering stuff and being clear what in government they are arguing for and getting and what they are arguing against and modifying.
They also need to communicate what they have already done. Some big wins on the environmet today and some massive wins on taking the low paid out of income tax, and some good wins on resources for early stage education in England and Wales.
Also amused by some of the comments I have read about greetin Tavish and being unconstructive re some aspects of SNP agenda. You are allowed to have different ideas in a democracy and to argue different solutions and oppose what you don’t believe you know!
I hope the LibDems are constructive in Holyrood and the Burd suggest some practical ways they can do this – I bow to Holyrood insiders as to the efficacy of all this. But mostly the Libdems need a clear position and narrative of what they stand for.
I think there is a healthy bloc of the electorate that something like the Libdems is the best match for.
I think the Libdems have quite a balanced outlook if you delve and they communicate it and I think they have a small but quite balanced team in terms of interests and areas of expertise.
They will need this – they have to punch above their weight.
It won’t be easy, but i think they have to try.
#20 by Dan on May 18, 2011 - 7:52 am
I can’t see where the Lib Dems can go from here. Kate suggests a left-ward tack but surely that can’t be credible as long as they’re in coalition with the Tories.
But she is still right to point out that a free-market approach wouldn’t help either, again you can still vote Tory and the SNP have sufficiently wooed business to peel off some of that soft centrist liberal vote.
More powers for Scotland? Again just vote SNP (and vote no for independence if you’re that way inclined). In short they’re outflanked.
I can see why he was elected unopposed!
#21 by Jeff on May 18, 2011 - 11:55 am
I fully agree with this Dan. Through no fault of their own, the Lib Dems have been fatally compromised by the coalition with the Tories.
The only hope that I can see is that Osborne’s strategy will work, the deficit will have been paid down and around 2014 the Lib Dems, either side of the border, can start to extricate themselves from the Tory brand (Orange bookers notwithstanding).
Until then they can only really twiddle their thumbs to a certain extent, although it’s good for Willie Rennie that he won’t have much pressure on his shoulders right from the off.
#22 by rlemkin on May 18, 2011 - 1:53 pm
He’ll definitely have pressure. Given that the Lib Dems have ~160 odd councillors up for re-election and are partially in charge of 10+ councils. If their vote halves as it did this year I don’t think he’ll be immune, how few councillors would they have then? (I know local elections have more scope to return diffrent results but still)r..
Just because he has limited room to manoeuvre doesn’t exempt him from the media attention and the party’s desire to turn the tide of their electoral fortunes.