I was very sad to hear of the death of Labour’s MP for Inverclyde David Cairns at just 44.  I didn’t agree with a lot of his politics, but I had several conversations with him on Twitter in which the character of which Tom Harris’ moving obituary speaks came shining though.  I always have a lot of respect for representatives who resign their ministerial position when they disagree with the leadership, and David Cairns was one who did just that.  A fine MP, and a sad loss for Labour, Scotland and politics in general.

His untimely death inevitably means a by-election in Inverclyde.  I don’t want to start speculating on the coming campaign – there will be plenty time for that in the coming weeks – but I wanted to postulate a scenario which has the potential to occur.

The news from New York that the head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Khan has been charged with sexual assault suggests there will be a vacancy for the top job there.  At the moment, the number two at the IMF (who is on his way out in August) is taking over the role – but even if the charges against Strauss-Khan are dropped, there’s no real chance he’ll return to the top job.  Which means there’s likely to be a vacancy there.  As it happens, we have a former Prime Minister who fancies himself as a bit of an economics expert, a guy who claims to have “saved the world… erm, saved the banks”.  Wouldn’t he fancy the gig?

Of course, even if he fancied it, there’s no guarantee he’d get it.  But it is widely known that J. Gordon Brown has been looking to stand down as an MP for several months.  Indeed, there were even rumours before the Scottish Parliamentary election that he’d stand down and Labour would call the by-election for the same day (and, in hindsight, its perhaps lucky for them that they did not).  So, perhaps, even if he did not get the IMF job, the former PM’s time as MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath is limited.

Thus, perhaps, at some point in the coming months, we could be looking at not just one by-election (in Inverclyde) but a second (in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath).

If that is the case, what odds on both by-elections being held on the same day?

Think about it like this.  Of all the parties in Scotland at the moment, only the Liberal Democrats would like a Westminster by-election less than Labour at the moment.  Labour won the Greenock & Inverclyde seat at the Scottish Parliament election by just 500 or so votes.  They lost Kirkcaldy to the SNP by around 200.  In that respect, neither can be considered a “safe” seat – and the party won’t have the finance to take on the SNP in 2 separate large-scale by-election campaigns.  Plus the negative coverage which would come from a by-election loss (in the first one) would plunge the party further into difficulty in Scotland, and make it even more difficult for them to win a second by-election – handing further initiative to the SNP.  Add the fact there’s a “root and branch” review of what Scottish Labour means and how it is organised, and the resignation of Iain Gray as LOLITSP after the review is over means there are plenty questions about Labour at the moment.

The SNP, on the other hand, are buoyant at the moment.  They’ve just won a majority in a PR electoral system, winning seats in Labour heartlands that no one ever considered would be lost.  They’ve returned to government in Scotland with a stronger mandate as a majority government.  And they’ve got activists, celebrity endorsements and weel-kent MSP faces to help with publicity in by-election campaigns.  In short – despite the fact that both Inverclyde and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath have large Labour majorities, the odds would be stacked in the SNP’s favour in the event of a by-election in each case.  And even if they didn’t win either, the likelihood is that they would run Labour close in both – further providing good news for the SNP and bad for Labour.

The way around making this two stories instead of one (and, indeed, of reducing the SNP’s chances of winning either – by splitting their activists) is to hold both on the same day.  Its a tactic we’ve seen before – and one which would likely allow Labour to maintain some control over the story and, crucially, help them to hold one or both seats.

Obviously, I’m getting way ahead of myself here – there will definitely be one by-election – but it wouldn’t surprise me if Gordon Brown decided the time was right to move on.  What do we think?  A likely scenario… or my reading too much into everything and trying to find links where none exist?